A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[harmony]

I guess you have more faith in Swihart than I do. To me, he's a big drop off from Leon and Vaz, and if we traded Vaz, he'd probably catch 50-70 games. I can't see Leon lasting much over 100 games. If we traded Leon, maybe we could limit Swihart to 30-40 games, but are we getting a good RP'er for Leon?

 

I think not, so just keep 'em both.

The Red Sox should just designate Blake Swihart for assignment.

 

If another club claims Swihart, the Red Sox save his 2019 salary of $910,000 and open up another slot on the 40-man roster (which currently stands at 39):

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox

 

If no team claims Swihart, the Red Sox can outright him to the minors without his consent because Swihart does not have three years of MLB service. However, the Sox would still owe the 2019 salary of $910,000 even if the Sox release Swihart.

 

Either way Swihart should get more reps than he would receive as the third-string catcher for the Red Sox.

 

From Cot's Baseball Contracts:

 

Designated for Assignment (DFA)

A player designated for assignment is removed from his club’s 40-man roster and, within the next seven days, traded, released or, if he clears waivers, assigned to the minor leagues. A club may not designate a player for assignment if the corresponding transaction is to recall a player on optional assignment.

 

A player designated for assignment may be traded. A club interested in acquiring a player who has been designated for assignment may try to work out a trade before the player is placed on waivers, eliminating the possibility he might be claimed by a club with a higher waiver claim priority.

A player designated for assignment who clears waivers and is not traded may be released. The player then becomes a free agent.

A club wishing to send a player designated for assignment to the minor leagues must first place him on irrevocable outright waivers, making him available to the other 29 clubs in reverse order of won-lost record.

If the player is claimed, he is lost to the claiming team for $20,000. (Irrevocable waivers may not be reversed.) The claiming team is responsible for the balance of the contract.

If the player is not claimed (clears waivers), the club may option him or assign him outright to the minor leagues, though he must continue to be paid according to the terms of his contract. A player may be assigned outright to the minors only once in his career without his permission. Thereafter, he may either 1) reject the assignment and become a free agent, or 2) accept the assignment and become a free agent at the end of the season if he’s not back on the 40-man roster. Additionally, player with 3 years of major league service may refuse an outright assignment and choose to become a free agent, regardless of whether he has been sent outright to the minors previously. A player with 5 years of major league service time who refuses an outright assignment is entitled to the money due according to the terms of his contract.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/

[cp176]

I guess you have more faith in Swihart than I do. To me, he's a big drop off from Leon and Vaz, and if we traded Vaz, he'd probably catch 50-70 games. I can't see Leon lasting much over 100 games. If we traded Leon, maybe we could limit Swihart to 30-40 games, but are we getting a good RP'er for Leon?

 

I think not, so just keep 'em both.

 

I'm not sure of how much faith I have in Swihart but I would like to find out. what I do have faith in is that we might all be surprised by what he could do if given the opportunity. Would he provide as good a backstop as either V or L, likely not but if we could get a decent return in trade for either of those guys I probably would pull the trigger. The rub is - could we get anyone of value by trading either Vazquez or Leon? I don't think that we could.

Now - Everybody loves a competent catcher that we know so what's up with that one? What is your response Moon to why no teams are clamoring at the door willing to trade for one of these two guys if they in fact are as good as suggested?

[cp176]

So, why would any of the other 29 teams give up more than a bucket of used baseballs for any of our three catchers?

 

I would like a decent answer to that question as well Larry. If any of these guys provide such competence as suggested by their ardent supporters, why are they not being chased by other teams looking for a catcher - even a backup catcher? The answer I think is obvious.

[oldtimer]

The Red Sox should just designate Blake Swihart for assignment.

 

If another club claims Swihart, the Red Sox save his 2019 salary of $910,000 and open up another slot on the 40-man roster (which currently stands at 39):

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox

 

If no team claims Swihart, the Red Sox can outright him to the minors without his consent because Swihart does not have three years of MLB service. However, the Sox would still owe the 2019 salary of $910,000 even if the Sox release Swihart.

 

Either way Swihart should get more reps than he would receive as the third-string catcher for the Red Sox.

 

From Cot's Baseball Contracts:

 

Designated for Assignment (DFA)

A player designated for assignment is removed from his club’s 40-man roster and, within the next seven days, traded, released or, if he clears waivers, assigned to the minor leagues. A club may not designate a player for assignment if the corresponding transaction is to recall a player on optional assignment.

 

A player designated for assignment may be traded. A club interested in acquiring a player who has been designated for assignment may try to work out a trade before the player is placed on waivers, eliminating the possibility he might be claimed by a club with a higher waiver claim priority.

A player designated for assignment who clears waivers and is not traded may be released. The player then becomes a free agent.

A club wishing to send a player designated for assignment to the minor leagues must first place him on irrevocable outright waivers, making him available to the other 29 clubs in reverse order of won-lost record.

If the player is claimed, he is lost to the claiming team for $20,000. (Irrevocable waivers may not be reversed.) The claiming team is responsible for the balance of the contract.

If the player is not claimed (clears waivers), the club may option him or assign him outright to the minor leagues, though he must continue to be paid according to the terms of his contract. A player may be assigned outright to the minors only once in his career without his permission. Thereafter, he may either 1) reject the assignment and become a free agent, or 2) accept the assignment and become a free agent at the end of the season if he’s not back on the 40-man roster. Additionally, player with 3 years of major league service may refuse an outright assignment and choose to become a free agent, regardless of whether he has been sent outright to the minors previously. A player with 5 years of major league service time who refuses an outright assignment is entitled to the money due according to the terms of his contract.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/

 

Give the young man a break. Maybe he has improved and can make a case for being our 2nd best catcher. I woulod prefer to see him compete in spring training and if he looks ggood to keep him and jettisone one of our other catchers, probably Leon. I know I am in the minority as others and especially Moon is advocating Leon and Vaz.

[Bellhorn04]

So, why would any of the other 29 teams give up more than a bucket of used baseballs for any of our three catchers?

 

moon has already explained why he thinks they're valuable a zillion times. You just can't be bothered reading or trying to understand anything anyone else says.

[cp176]

Give the young man a break. Maybe he has improved and can make a case for being our 2nd best catcher. I woulod prefer to see him compete in spring training and if he looks ggood to keep him and jettisone one of our other catchers, probably Leon. I know I am in the minority as others and especially Moon is advocating Leon and Vaz.

 

It is going to be a tough decision that there will be plenty df disagreement over but i think that eventually one of the three goes. We seem to have a stock pile of backup players that we feel good about but that no one else wants.

[notin]

It is going to be a tough decision that there will be plenty df disagreement over but i think that eventually one of the three goes. We seem to have a stock pile of backup players that we feel good about but that no one else wants.

 

 

Agree. It makes zero sense that the Sox have two backup catchers and zero backup outfielders. And while they do have two backup infielders, neither can play shortstop very well...

[Bellhorn04]

Agree. It makes zero sense that the Sox have two backup catchers and zero backup outfielders. And while they do have two backup infielders, neither can play shortstop very well...

 

Dombrowski has no idea what he's doing, 119 wins and ring aside.

[Bellhorn04]

I would like a decent answer to that question as well Larry. If any of these guys provide such competence as suggested by their ardent supporters, why are they not being chased by other teams looking for a catcher - even a backup catcher? The answer I think is obvious.

 

So basically what you're saying is that nobody wants any of the guys on our team, because we haven't traded them yet. Our players must all suck then.

[S5Dewey]

Give the young man a break. Maybe he has improved and can make a case for being our 2nd best catcher. I woulod prefer to see him compete in spring training and if he looks ggood to keep him and jettisone one of our other catchers, probably Leon. I know I am in the minority as others and especially Moon is advocating Leon and Vaz.

 

No. Just no. Every year we see someone have a great ST and he becomes our "can't miss now" player of the spring. Then on those occasions when he actually gets playing time in the regular season we learn that the player is what he is... or rather, what he was.

 

If think we're going to base the decision as to what to do with Swihart on what he does in ST we may as well make the decision now and avoid the angst. Something we should have learned by now is that what a player does playing part-time in 20-30 games against players you've never heard of before and probably never will hear of again has no bearing on what he will do against real major leaguers.

 

Don't get me wrong - I've long thought that Swihart wants/needs/deserves another chance. It's just that there is no upside for Swihart in that situation. Putting him in ST to make his case is a lose/lose situation for him. If he performs well we'll say that it's just ST numbers and they don't mean much. If he performs poorly we'll say that's just what we expected from him.

[cp176]

So basically what you're saying is that nobody wants any of the guys on our team, because we haven't traded them yet. Our players must all suck then.

 

That is what you are somehow reading into my comments? Really Bell - What ever floats your boat I guess. You must not remember that I'm the guy who takes the crap here for being the most ardent supporter of all things DD. It kind of turns into a nasty road that we go down from time to time doesn't it.

[Bellhorn04]

That is what you are somehow reading into my comments? Really Bell - What ever floats your boat I guess. You must not remember that I'm the guy who takes the crap here for being the most ardent supporter of all things DD. It kind of turns into a nasty road that we go down from time to time doesn't it.

 

Ah, I just like to mess around a bit cp. I think you do too.

[notin]

Dombrowski has no idea what he's doing, 119 wins and ring aside.

 

 

Or... crazy thought here. I was agreeing with cp that he isn’t done yet.

 

 

Come to think of it, me agreeing with cp176 really is a crazy thought...

[cp176]

Ah, I just like to mess around a bit cp. I think you do too.

 

you know i do you old pot stirrer you -

[cp176]

Or... crazy thought here. I was agreeing with cp that he isn’t done yet.

 

 

Come to think of it, me agreeing with cp176 really is a crazy thought...

 

I wasn't surprised at all notin by your agreeing with me. Your thoughts being somewhat crazy from time to time doesn't surprise me at all! lol

[cp176]

Ah, I just like to mess around a bit cp. I think you do too.

 

Things are a little boring right now so maybe it is time for me to revisit why i think the Sox really got rid of Hanley Ramirez!!! Everybody knows that the only reason i didn't like him was because of the way he wore his hair. What do you think, is now the right time? Could get us right into spring training. For sure it would bring slasher out of hiding. he does spice things up a bit.

[moonslav59]

So, why would any of the other 29 teams give up more than a bucket of used baseballs for any of our three catchers?

 

Some GMs probably think highly of Vaz and Leon, but trading Swihart would probably only net us a single A player with a bit of promise.

 

I'm not suggesting we get anything great for Swihart. I'm thinking he might be a useful throw-in to a bigger trade, or not.

 

If no other GMs value Vaz or Leon, it doesn't change my opinion of them all that much.

 

Sale and Price are very happy with Sale. Porcello and Eovaldi seem happy with Vaz. ERod and most of the pen seem to not care all that much.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox should just designate Blake Swihart for assignment.

 

If another club claims Swihart, the Red Sox save his 2019 salary of $910,000 and open up another slot on the 40-man roster (which currently stands at 39):

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox

 

If no team claims Swihart, the Red Sox can outright him to the minors without his consent because Swihart does not have three years of MLB service. However, the Sox would still owe the 2019 salary of $910,000 even if the Sox release Swihart.

 

Either way Swihart should get more reps than he would receive as the third-string catcher for the Red Sox.

 

From Cot's Baseball Contracts:

 

Designated for Assignment (DFA)

A player designated for assignment is removed from his club’s 40-man roster and, within the next seven days, traded, released or, if he clears waivers, assigned to the minor leagues. A club may not designate a player for assignment if the corresponding transaction is to recall a player on optional assignment.

 

A player designated for assignment may be traded. A club interested in acquiring a player who has been designated for assignment may try to work out a trade before the player is placed on waivers, eliminating the possibility he might be claimed by a club with a higher waiver claim priority.

A player designated for assignment who clears waivers and is not traded may be released. The player then becomes a free agent.

A club wishing to send a player designated for assignment to the minor leagues must first place him on irrevocable outright waivers, making him available to the other 29 clubs in reverse order of won-lost record.

If the player is claimed, he is lost to the claiming team for $20,000. (Irrevocable waivers may not be reversed.) The claiming team is responsible for the balance of the contract.

If the player is not claimed (clears waivers), the club may option him or assign him outright to the minor leagues, though he must continue to be paid according to the terms of his contract. A player may be assigned outright to the minors only once in his career without his permission. Thereafter, he may either 1) reject the assignment and become a free agent, or 2) accept the assignment and become a free agent at the end of the season if he’s not back on the 40-man roster. Additionally, player with 3 years of major league service may refuse an outright assignment and choose to become a free agent, regardless of whether he has been sent outright to the minors previously. A player with 5 years of major league service time who refuses an outright assignment is entitled to the money due according to the terms of his contract.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/

 

Certainly, DFA'ing is an option, but only if nobody wants him in a trade.

 

Also, how much do we save by DFA'ing him and replacing him with Lin at the minimum ML salary?

 

$910K -$555K = $355K savings

 

Maybe that's helpful, if we are going to try and stay $1 under the $40M line, but it might not matter as much.

 

It also might depend on how much DD & Co value Swihart over Centaro. If one of our catchers gets hurt, we may regret cutting Swihart. (I wouldn't.)

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure of how much faith I have in Swihart but I would like to find out. what I do have faith in is that we might all be surprised by what he could do if given the opportunity. Would he provide as good a backstop as either V or L, likely not but if we could get a decent return in trade for either of those guys I probably would pull the trigger. The rub is - could we get anyone of value by trading either Vazquez or Leon? I don't think that we could.

Now - Everybody loves a competent catcher that we know so what's up with that one? What is your response Moon to why no teams are clamoring at the door willing to trade for one of these two guys if they in fact are as good as suggested?

 

Maybe because they have a comfort level with their catchers and don't want to risk a comfort-learning curve that lasts longer than hoped for.

 

Maybe they do like Vaz or Leon better than their starting or back-up catcher but are not willing to give up much for that "upgrade."

 

Maybe they think Vaz is overpaid, which would imply my set value is much higher than theirs. I've said I could be wrong. We basically got Leon from the Nats for cash, and he's not really improved since then, so I realize there is plenty of evidence that supports those who feel he is easily replaceable.

 

I like what our catchers do with our staff. I don't think it was a fluke our pen has "over performed" for 2 straight years, that Porcello won a Cy Young, that ERod has come of age (when healthy), that Price has re-invented himself, that Eovaldi just earned a fat contract after a short time with us, and even Sale has done better than ever. I'm fine with being in a minority and am not trying to say anyone who disagrees with me is dumb or uninformed.

 

The know vs the unknown argument is a good one.

 

[harmony]

Certainly, DFA'ing is an option, but only if nobody wants him in a trade.

 

Also, how much do we save by DFA'ing him and replacing him with Lin at the minimum ML salary?

 

$910K -$555K = $355K savings

 

Maybe that's helpful, if we are going to try and stay $1 under the $40M line, but it might not matter as much.

 

It also might depend on how much DD & Co value Swihart over Centaro. If one of our catchers gets hurt, we may regret cutting Swihart. (I wouldn't.)

The DFA would not preclude a trade, which could occur within seven days of the DFA. A team interested in acquiring Blake Swihart could feel pressure to trade for Swihart if that team fears that a club with a higher waiver priority would claim him.

[harmony]

Give the young man a break. Maybe he has improved and can make a case for being our 2nd best catcher. I woulod prefer to see him compete in spring training and if he looks ggood to keep him and jettisone one of our other catchers, probably Leon. I know I am in the minority as others and especially Moon is advocating Leon and Vaz.

A designation for assignment might be the kindest thing the Red Sox could do for Blake Swihart.

Edited January 30, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

It also might depend on how much DD & Co value Swihart over Centaro. If one of our catchers gets hurt, we may regret cutting Swihart. (I wouldn't.)

 

This is actually kind of funny. Catcher is probably the Sox deepest and also worst position. Yes, there will be an affect if one of our catchers goes down, but then the drop off from Swihart to Centeno might be the smallest dropff we have from MLB to MiLB at any position.

 

I think it’s a little overly cautious to worry about who takes over the second string if the backup catcher gets hurt. I mean, who takes over if the starting shortstop gets hurt? Or any of the outfielders?

 

 

And for all we know, the “step down” from Swihart to Centeno might even be a step up...

[moonslav59]

This is actually kind of funny. Catcher is probably the Sox deepest and also worst position. Yes, there will be an affect if one of our catchers goes down, but then the drop off from Swihart to Centeno might be the smallest dropff we have from MLB to MiLB at any position.

 

I think it’s a little overly cautious to worry about who takes over the second string if the backup catcher gets hurt. I mean, who takes over if the starting shortstop gets hurt? Or any of the outfielders?

 

 

And for all we know, the “step down” from Swihart to Centeno might even be a step up...

 

True. My only concern is Leon having to catch everyday, if Vaz goes down. I think he has endurance issues and gets burnt out when having to catch a lot in a short time.

[Bellhorn04]

A designation for assignment might be the kindest thing the Red Sox could do for Blake Swihart.

 

Yes, kindness should always be a prominent consideration in MLB personnel moves!

[notin]

Yes, kindness should always be a prominent consideration in MLB personnel moves!

 

 

I think Steve Piscotty would agree...

[notin]

True. My only concern is Leon having to catch everyday, if Vaz goes down. I think he has endurance issues and gets burnt out when having to catch a lot in a short time.

 

 

What’s the worst thing if he gets burned out? He stops hitting?

 

Honestly , the Sox got zilch from their catchers last year and still won 119 games. If Juan Centeno catches a few dozen games, what’s the impact?

[sk7326]

Vazquez is their most likely scenario for getting good defensive catching with a non-embarrassing level of offensive production.

[Bellhorn04]

What’s the worst thing if he gets burned out? He stops hitting?

 

Honestly , the Sox got zilch from their catchers last year and still won 119 games. If Juan Centeno catches a few dozen games, what’s the impact?

 

You are a firm non-believer in CERA stuff?

[notin]

You are a firm non-believer in CERA stuff?

 

 

Over small samples, it’s useless.

 

But given a decent sample size, it wouldn’t surprise me if Centeno maintained better numbers than Swihart...

[Bellhorn04]

Over small samples, it’s useless.

 

But given a decent sample size, it wouldn’t surprise me if Centeno maintained better numbers than Swihart...

 

Right, but you also said we got 'zilch' from our catchers last year, implying zero value on either offense or defense.