A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

If Chavis didn't get popped for performance enhancers, I think he'd get traded too. I think they are stuck with him until he starts to perform at the MLB level.

 

 

BA still made him a top 100 prospect mid-season last year, even after the suspension. Of course now they rank Dalbec ahead of him...

[mvp 78]

BA still made him a top 100 prospect mid-season last year, even after the suspension. Of course now they rank Dalbec ahead of him...

 

I'm not sure BA does their rankings based on trade value.

[moonslav59]

We probably trade whichever one brings us the most in return, unless we really have faith in that one being our FT 1Bman in 2020.

[notin]

I'm not sure BA does their rankings based on trade value.

 

Trade value varies from team to team. But it’s the closest we have.

 

Chavis is at the Major’s doorstep, which does enhance his value...

[moonslav59]

Trade value varies from team to team. But it’s the closest we have.

 

Chavis is at the Major’s doorstep, which does enhance his value...

 

I agree, but it may also enhance his value to us, as we may want a cheap 1Bman next year, if we reset. Moreland + Pearce= $13M.

 

However, if the top brass like Dalbec better, and think he can be ready by 2020, then Chavis will likely be the one we trade.

 

Who knows? We could keep both and increase our odds that one will work out. If they both workout, Chavis or Devers could DH.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree, but it may also enhance his value to us, as we may want a cheap 1Bman next year, if we reset. Moreland + Pearce= $13M.

 

However, if the top brass like Dalbec better, and think he can be ready by 2020, then Chavis will likely be the one we trade.

 

Who knows? We could keep both and increase our odds that one will work out. If they both workout, Chavis or Devers could DH.

 

 

You will need both 1b and DH after 2019. Ridding youselves of Dalbec or Chavis opens up holes that you aren't even sure they can fill. That being said, if it fills a hole in 2019, you kinda go with it. This is the last year where you come into the season as the top dog or as close to it as you can come.

[moonslav59]

You will need both 1b and DH after 2019. Ridding youselves of Dalbec or Chavis opens up holes that you aren't even sure they can fill. That being said, if it fills a hole in 2019, you kinda go with it. This is the last year where you come into the season as the top dog or as close to it as you can come.

 

Agreed, and finding 1B/DH types for cheap is maybe the easiest position to do so.

[jacksonianmarch]

Agreed, and finding 1B/DH types for cheap is maybe the easiest position to do so.

 

That is very true. But finding a replacement at those positions who is actually good is another story. If Dalbec or Chavis actually hit to their minor league totals, then dealing them away will be problematic for the sox. But if it brings them the needed closer or pen arm to secure another title, then you pack their bags for them. It is an interesting predicament for sure. You guys have one more great year ahead of you, although you enter the year with a hole you didn't have last year (closer, setup).

[moonslav59]

I think we trade Sswihart and Chavis or Dalbec for the best RP'er we can get. It may not be the quality level many want, but we'll do it.

 

We'll reset in 2020, so it wouldn't kill us, if we pin our hopes on the one (Chavis or Dalbec) we don't trade and he fails. We just pick up a FA corner IF'er in 2021.

 

The $13M we save at 1B helps us a lot in resetting and keeping one more star than otherwise.

 

I know we'll have a rough reset year, but I'm scrounging to find a way we can limit it to 1 (maybe 2) year.

 

[notin]

That is very true. But finding a replacement at those positions who is actually good is another story. If Dalbec or Chavis actually hit to their minor league totals, then dealing them away will be problematic for the sox. But if it brings them the needed closer or pen arm to secure another title, then you pack their bags for them. It is an interesting predicament for sure. You guys have one more great year ahead of you, although you enter the year with a hole you didn't have last year (closer, setup).

 

 

We lost our setup guy? We lost Barnes?!?!?

 

Bear in mind - the Sox are only “without” a closer for the regular season. The Sox do have a postseason closer on the roster..

[Bellhorn04]

I think we trade Sswihart and Chavis or Dalbec for the best RP'er we can get. It may not be the quality level many want, but we'll do it.

 

We'll reset in 2020, so it wouldn't kill us, if we pin our hopes on the one (Chavis or Dalbec) we don't trade and he fails. We just pick up a FA corner IF'er in 2021.

 

The $13M we save at 1B helps us a lot in resetting and keeping one more star than otherwise.

 

I know we'll have a rough reset year, but I'm scrounging to find a way we can limit it to 1 (maybe 2) year.

 

 

Keep up the good work moon!

[moonslav59]

We lost our setup guy? We lost Barnes?!?!?

 

Bear in mind - the Sox are only “without” a closer for the regular season. The Sox do have a postseason closer on the roster..

 

Kelly was a set-up guy, but Barnes and Brasier were, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

We lost our setup guy? We lost Barnes?!?!?

 

Bear in mind - the Sox are only “without” a closer for the regular season. The Sox do have a postseason closer on the roster..

 

Having Kelly last year was VERY important for you. Consider this, when the whole pen is rolling, life is gravy. But by the post season, someone fades. For you guys it was Kimbrel. Having Barnes, Kelly and Brasier to pick up the slack was huge. Now Kelly and Kimbrel are gone. What happens when Barnes hits a rough patch. What happens if Brasier gets hurt? You have no contingencies

[Bellhorn04]

Having Kelly last year was VERY important for you. Consider this, when the whole pen is rolling, life is gravy. But by the post season, someone fades. For you guys it was Kimbrel. Having Barnes, Kelly and Brasier to pick up the slack was huge. Now Kelly and Kimbrel are gone. What happens when Barnes hits a rough patch. What happens if Brasier gets hurt? You have no contingencies

 

Well, it's still only January, jacks.

[jacksonianmarch]

The reliever market is moving fast. Even one of the guys you touted hard is now in Anaheim. It seems guys who were good relievers and are either aging or coming off a down year are getting 1 years $8+ mil deals. Good relievers coming off good seasons are getting slightly more AAV but longer contracts. Brach is the last of the guys I’d put in the “good enough” reliever pile. He’d help you, but I bet he’ll be more expensive than you think

[notin]

Having Kelly last year was VERY important for you. Consider this, when the whole pen is rolling, life is gravy. But by the post season, someone fades. For you guys it was Kimbrel. Having Barnes, Kelly and Brasier to pick up the slack was huge. Now Kelly and Kimbrel are gone. What happens when Barnes hits a rough patch. What happens if Brasier gets hurt? You have no contingencies

 

 

There are also 47 unsigned free agent relievers. Not to mention 21 unsigned starting pitchers, not all of whom are going to find jobs in starting rotations...

[moonslav59]

Having Kelly last year was VERY important for you. Consider this, when the whole pen is rolling, life is gravy. But by the post season, someone fades. For you guys it was Kimbrel. Having Barnes, Kelly and Brasier to pick up the slack was huge. Now Kelly and Kimbrel are gone. What happens when Barnes hits a rough patch. What happens if Brasier gets hurt? You have no contingencies

 

False. We have at least 15 guys to choose from- several with past records of decency or dominance.

 

True, they are no Zach Britton or Ottavino, but it's not absurd to think 2 or 3 will do well.

 

Our pen was supposed to be our weakest area last year, too.

[Slasher9]

Having Kelly last year was VERY important for you. Consider this, when the whole pen is rolling, life is gravy. But by the post season, someone fades. For you guys it was Kimbrel. Having Barnes, Kelly and Brasier to pick up the slack was huge. Now Kelly and Kimbrel are gone. What happens when Barnes hits a rough patch. What happens if Brasier gets hurt? You have no contingencies

 

hahahaha. you think DD has "no contingencies"????!!!!!

if it is one thing we have learned...the dude has in season answers for EVERY contingency.

[Larry Cook]

False. We have at least 15 guys to choose from- several with past records of decency or dominance.

 

True, they are no Zach Britton or Ottavino, but it's not absurd to think 2 or 3 will do well.

 

Our pen was supposed to be our weakest area last year, too.

 

In 2017 ottavino was no prize. In 2018 he was lights out.

 

Who is the real ottavino?

 

I think some between Feltman, lakins, Hernandez or houck ( our future closer) pop next year, which will make our bullpen will be fine and younger.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, Ottavino was a very good reliever from 13-15. He blows out his elbow in 15, returns in 16 and was pretty good. 2017 saw a rise in BABIP above where he had been as a reliever by a lot and an uncharacteristic jump in walks and homers. Last year, the BABIP went down to his reliever standard, the walks came down (albeit not to where he usually sat in the 3.5 range) but the K’s rose and HRs fell off entirely. He’s a good reliever who’s experience Tommy John and one bad season over the last 4 years. He’s also added a cutter which adds to his effectiveness, a la Eovaldi

[cp176]

Well, Ottavino was a very good reliever from 13-15. He blows out his elbow in 15, returns in 16 and was pretty good. 2017 saw a rise in BABIP above where he had been as a reliever by a lot and an uncharacteristic jump in walks and homers. Last year, the BABIP went down to his reliever standard, the walks came down (albeit not to where he usually sat in the 3.5 range) but the K’s rose and HRs fell off entirely. He’s a good reliever who’s experience Tommy John and one bad season over the last 4 years. He’s also added a cutter which adds to his effectiveness, a la Eovaldi

 

You aren't just a little hypocritical either are you? How could a person who has undergone Tommy John ever amount to anything? Remember - Eovaldi !

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi has had it done twice. That’s a rare club. Also, Eovaldi has been unable to reach 30+ starts outside of a single season. He’s frequently injured and has now had a twice reconstructed elbow.

[cp176]

Eovaldi has had it done twice. That’s a rare club. Also, Eovaldi has been unable to reach 30+ starts outside of a single season. He’s frequently injured and has now had a twice reconstructed elbow.

 

Yup - ok - whatever you say.

[jacksonianmarch]

Very mature and useful response.

[cp176]

Very mature and useful response.

 

 

oh baby - what is the word that your friends here to like to use with me when they are challenged. Very snarky there doc-

Edited January 19, 2019 by cp176

[sk7326]

Right now - being pragmatic - the Yankees have closed the gap on paper with Boston. Paxton is a significant boost to the team's biggest weakness, and Ottavino helps the bullpen. The Red Sox have not enhanced the 2018 roster, and is probably losing Kelly and Kimbrel. (how much that hurts is hard to tell) We're lucky that Hal is content to pocket the Bombers' revenue instead of actually attacking this tremendous free agent class with more vigor. But that dig applies to all 30 teams to some degree or another.

 

Boston is counting on more internal improvement - that the October Devers shows a guy who has turned a corner for instance.

[Bellhorn04]

Right now - being pragmatic - the Yankees have closed the gap on paper with Boston. Paxton is a significant boost to the team's biggest weakness, and Ottavino helps the bullpen. The Red Sox have not enhanced the 2018 roster

 

I think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season should qualify as an enhancement.

[harmony]

I think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season should qualify as an enhancement.

Unless Nathan Eovaldi is last year's Drew Pomeranz and Steve Pearce is last year's Eduardo Nunez.

 

Eovaldi and Pearce may have overperformed in 2018 ... or not.

Edited January 19, 2019 by harmony

[sk7326]

I think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season should qualify as an enhancement.

 

I think that is possible, but I like the Yankees moves a little better. Now they have seemed too cheap to go after Machado, and I find that fortunate and a little astounding.

[dgalehouse]

We beat New York by eight games. Now , they certainly seem to have improved , even without Machado. Have they improved enough to make up the difference ? That is the burning question. To beat a dead horse one more time , I think we are playing a dangerous game by virtually ignoring the bullpen.