A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

 

Here is a rough estimate on what our departing players might get in 2020 (per year)

 

$30M Sale

$24M JD

$24M Bogey

$18M Porcello

$4M Nunez, Moreland, Pearce, Holt

 

We may be able to keep JD or Bogey and Porcello or a pitcher at $14-16M or so, but there would be nothing left over for the rest of the roster. We'd have 8-9 guys at min wage on the 25 man roster. It's hard to contend when you have 9 replacement level players.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Re-sign Bogaerts. Let the rest walk. Maybe keep one of Holt or Nunez at that price...

[Bellhorn04]

Ummmm...that implies we let either of them go...

 

It makes sense in a Yogi Berra way, though.

[moonslav59]

Re-sign Bogaerts. Let the rest walk. Maybe keep one of Holt or Nunez at that price...

 

I certainly want Bogey back, but he's not in my top 3 to keep (2019-2020 FAs to be).

[moonslav59]

Lucroy signs for a little more than Leon will get ($3.35M/1).

[S5Dewey]

Ummmm...that implies we let either of them go...

 

??? Only of you consider that post in the context of Moon's discussion about future salaries.

 

I took it to be a general statement - that not signing either of them is a very good thing, something I agree with 1000%.

[notin]

??? Only of you consider that post in the context of Moon's discussion about future salaries.

 

I took it to be a general statement - that not signing either of them is a very good thing, something I agree with 1000%.

 

Typically “addition by subtraction” refers to getting better by letting a player go. Hence the “subtraction” part...

[moonslav59]

It's addition by not adding.

[moonslav59]

Are any of these guys possible RP'er trade targets?

 

K-BB%

30.0 Oliver Perez

29.6 Corey Knebel

29.2 Kirby Yates

26.9 Jose Leclerc

26.7 Will Smith

26.7 Jose Castillo

(26.3 Kimbrel)

26,2 Juan Nicasio

24.7 Richard Rodriguez

(24.6 Ottavino FA)

(24.5 Barnes)

23.6 Jace Fry

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

N.Y. Times best seller . Analytics , Sabermetrics and magic formulas : How to out smart the wise guys and get rich betting on baseball by using WAR .

 

WAR and other analytics are the farthest thing from magic formulas that you can find in baseball.

 

Things like line up protection and clutch, those are based on magic formulas.

 

WAR is not really a predictive stat, but rather a descriptive one. It does an excellent job of describing what has happened. It doesn't do as good a job at predicting what will happen. That said, it's as good as or better than whatever else you want to use to predict the future.

[Kimmi]

Ummmm...that implies we let either of them go...

 

Nah, it implies that sometimes the best moves are the ones that aren't made.

[Kimmi]

It's addition by not adding.

 

That leads to the question of whether not adding is the same as subtracting.

[moonslav59]

That leads to the question of whether not adding is the same as subtracting.

 

No, not adding is adding.

[oldtimer]

That leads to the question of whether not adding is the same as subtracting.

 

Not adding is standing still. When you stand still, you are much more likely to be caught. I prefer change with the expectation of improvement. Of course a perceived improvement can go bad but a track record where a high percentage of changes lead to improvements is something to strive for. I have no reason to believe that DD will make poor decisions on the team's behalf. Clearly he has been given guidelines and limits so he or anyone else needs to consider how to get the optimum bang for the buck;

 

Like you, I don't believe in long term contracts for older players. Something like a sliding scale of years for age. At 30 a 5 year max for a top player sliding to 2 or even 1 for a 35 year old. Hope DD considers that as his approach. My concern with DD is his depletion of the prospect pool in order to win the WS. It was a tradeoff and it worked, but on a longer term basis it may result in a significant downside. He did initiate the Price contract which I was against on principle. He also was involved in Pedey's contract, which was sentimental, not logical. So DD is not perfect eitther.

 

We are days from 2019. Looking forward to a move or moves being announced.

[notin]

Nah, it implies that sometimes the best moves are the ones that aren't made.

 

 

You’re a math teacher. You know “subtraction” doesn’t mean status quo.

 

The phrase “addition by subtraction” typically refers to getting rid of s cancerous or awful player. Carl Everett was a good example. Ditto Pablo Sandoval...

[Jasonbay44]

You’re a math teacher. You know “subtraction” doesn’t mean status quo.

 

The phrase “addition by subtraction” typically refers to getting rid of s cancerous or awful player. Carl Everett was a good example. Ditto Pablo Sandoval...

 

This is pretty random, but I was a bit young when Everett played for the Sox, what exactly did he do? On paper he seemed like a solid player, but I see a lot of negativity regarding him and it has me curious.

[oldtimer]

That leads to the question of whether not adding is the same as subtracting.

 

My wife taught math in college and specialized in statistics. That was years ago and now we are comfortably retired. She gets pretty certain on her definitions. She would argue that Notin's usage is the more correct one. "Typically “addition by subtraction” refers to getting better by letting a player go. Hence the “subtraction” part..."

[Kimmi]

Not adding is standing still. When you stand still, you are much more likely to be caught. I prefer change with the expectation of improvement. Of course a perceived improvement can go bad but a track record where a high percentage of changes lead to improvements is something to strive for. I have no reason to believe that DD will make poor decisions on the team's behalf. Clearly he has been given guidelines and limits so he or anyone else needs to consider how to get the optimum bang for the buck;

 

Like you, I don't believe in long term contracts for older players. Something like a sliding scale of years for age. At 30 a 5 year max for a top player sliding to 2 or even 1 for a 35 year old. Hope DD considers that as his approach. My concern with DD is his depletion of the prospect pool in order to win the WS. It was a tradeoff and it worked, but on a longer term basis it may result in a significant downside. He did initiate the Price contract which I was against on principle. He also was involved in Pedey's contract, which was sentimental, not logical. So DD is not perfect eitther.

 

We are days from 2019. Looking forward to a move or moves being announced.

 

IMO, it's okay to mostly stand still when the team is as good as the Red Sox. There is no need to try to improve just for the sake of not standing still. There's really not much room for improvement.

 

That said, Dombrowski will not leave the bullpen as it is. It will be improved before the start of the season.

[Nick]

Only 5 teams have players with AAV of $20M plus.

 

Angels Trout, Pujols, Upton $70M

Cubs Lester, Heyward, Darvish $70M

Nationals Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin $78M

Red Sox Price, JD, Porcello $73.6M

Yankees Stanton, Tanaka, Jacoby $69M

 

Stanton's contract runs for another 9 years! It's just hard for me to think they would give out a 10 year deal to Machado. That just seems insane. Only 5 players have AAV over $30M. Will it be 7 after Harper/Machado signings?

 

Red Sox may lose 2 to FA next winter. Anything can happen with injuries and such, but we're down to 4 years left with Price.

[Dojji]

IMO, it's okay to mostly stand still when the team is as good as the Red Sox. There is no need to try to improve just for the sake of not standing still. There's really not much room for improvement.

 

That said, Dombrowski will not leave the bullpen as it is. It will be improved before the start of the season.

 

I trust DD, but I'd rather phrase it that "he will make an attempt to improve the bullpen." And to me honestly atm that means a trade.

[Nick]

Strictly speaking from business standpoint, any doubt we did the right thing with Hanley? His $22M would have been painful in 2019. His salary takes care of Pearce, Moreland and Nunez with some money leftover. Edited December 30, 2018 by Nick

[Kimmi]

You’re a math teacher. You know “subtraction” doesn’t mean status quo.

 

The phrase “addition by subtraction” typically refers to getting rid of s cancerous or awful player. Carl Everett was a good example. Ditto Pablo Sandoval...

 

My wife taught math in college and specialized in statistics. That was years ago and now we are comfortably retired. She gets pretty certain on her definitions. She would argue that Notin's usage is the more correct one. "Typically “addition by subtraction” refers to getting better by letting a player go. Hence the “subtraction” part..."

 

Actually, I agree with both of you in the use of the phrase.

 

I get the point that NS was trying to make though.

[Kimmi]

This is pretty random, but I was a bit young when Everett played for the Sox, what exactly did he do? On paper he seemed like a solid player, but I see a lot of negativity regarding him and it has me curious.

 

The list goes on and on.

 

He was extremely opinionated and liked to run his mouth. He said a lot of stupid stuff, both baseball related against other players and teams and non baseball related.

 

He seemed to have anger issues both on and off the field. IIRC, he was arrested for domestic violence, both against his wife and his children.

[Kimmi]

Only 5 teams have players with AAV of $20M plus.

 

Angels Trout, Pujols, Upton $70M

Cubs Lester, Heyward, Darvish $70M

Nationals Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin $78M

Red Sox Price, JD, Porcello $73.6M

Yankees Stanton, Tanaka, Jacoby $69M

 

Stanton's contract runs for another 9 years! It's just hard for me to think they would give out a 10 year deal to Machado. That just seems insane. Only 5 players have AAV over $30M. Will it be 7 after Harper/Machado signings?

 

Red Sox may lose 2 to FA next winter. Anything can happen with injuries and such, but we're down to 4 years left with Price.

 

Stanton's contract is insane. I cannot believe that so many people here wanted to trade for him and take on that contract.

 

I will say it again. Just say No to Mookie and a 10 year contract.

[Kimmi]

I trust DD, but I'd rather phrase it that "he will make an attempt to improve the bullpen." And to me honestly atm that means a trade.

 

I have no doubt that he will improve the BP over what it is now, at least on paper.

 

It could very well be via a trade.

[Nick]

Stanton's contract is insane. I cannot believe that so many people here wanted to trade for him and take on that contract.

 

I will say it again. Just say No to Mookie and a 10 year contract.

 

Well, I'm big enough to admit I was one of those. I thought he'd hit 60 home runs in Fenway!. We got JD Martinez instead and I couldn't be any happier. Good or bad, JD's contract is reasonable in money and length. DD deserves an A for that signing.

[Kimmi]

Strictly speaking from business standpoint, any doubt we did the right thing with Hanley? His $22M would have been painful in 2019. His salary takes care of Pearce, Moreland and Nunez with some money leftover.

 

From a business standpoint, it was definitely the right thing to do.

 

From a strictly baseball standpoint, I'm not sure it was the right thing to do, though it's hard to argue with the WS Championship.

[Kimmi]

Well, I'm big enough to admit I was one of those. I thought he'd hit 60 home runs in Fenway!. We got JD Martinez instead and I couldn't be any happier. Good or bad, JD's contract is reasonable in money and length. DD deserves an A for that signing.

 

You are not alone in having wanted Stanton. I can understand wanting the player.

 

I criticize Dombrowski a lot, but the JD contract is pure gold. In fact, his entire 2018 season was pure gold. He gets an A+ for 2018.

[moonslav59]

We were lucky, with the JD signing, big spending teams were resetting last winter, but soon we will be resetting.

 

This year, the resetting Dodgers made the World Series, and the resetting Yankees were extremely competitive.

 

Let's see how we do during our reset year (after 2019 or 2020?).

 

[Nick]

Re-setting will require intensive planning. It will involve not only pending free agents but also players currently under team control.

 

How expensive will Beni be as he gets into arbitration years? What about Devers?

 

Do we trade good young players for good younger players in order to extend the team control years?

 

Is there a player out there that will be Beni in two years? Can we acquire two of those for real Beni?

 

If we are going to reset after 2019, we should trade Betts for couple of quality team controlled talent. You can always offer Betts 10 year, $350M contract. He'll be back if tha's the best deal. If that's not the best deal, then we won't sign him anyway.

 

Maybe we should hire someone from Tampa Bay Rays that knows something about 'churning' players.

[moonslav59]

Re-setting will require intensive planning. It will involve not only pending free agents but also players currently under team control.

 

How expensive will Beni be as he gets into arbitration years? What about Devers?

 

Do we trade good young players for good younger players in order to extend the team control years?

 

Is there a player out there that will be Beni in two years? Can we acquire two of those for real Beni?

 

If we are going to reset after 2019, we should trade Betts for couple of quality team controlled talent. You can always offer Betts 10 year, $350M contract. He'll be back if tha's the best deal. If that's not the best deal, then we won't sign him anyway.

 

Maybe we should hire someone from Tampa Bay Rays that knows something about 'churning' players.

 

That is an option, but I think keeping Betts during the reset year of 2020, would keep fans interested enough.

 

We let 2-3 from Bogey, JD, Sale and Porcello walk, and then extend or re-sign Betts and some other big names for 2021 and beyond- maybe keeping the cliff to a 1 year thing.