A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[oldtimer]

All positives.....This is a good team on paper that's done it before where it counts, on the field.

 

Last year at this time, we had Hanley. He was replaced by JD Martinez. We had Pom. Now we have Eovaldi. We had no partner for Moreland. Now we have full year of Pearce. We wanted to know if Betts would come back from his pedestrian performance from 2017. He answered with a MVP season. JBJ is slowing rounding into all around professional. Devers made his sophomore adjustments. Sure it was painful at times but he survived. Beni overcame his sophomore year from 2017 and came back strong. Price bounced back. In my mind his contract has been well worth it. 3 division titles and a world series ring in his three years. E Rod looked stellar while he was healthy.

 

I'm just not concerned with this team. DD will do something about the pen before it's all said and done. It's only day before Christmas Eve.[/quote

 

Some of the3 improvements are probably attributable to Cora. Probably the biggest reason for the change between 2017 and 2018.

[harmony]

Our oldest pitcher is Wright at 33. Price is 32, and Brasier is 30. That's a very prime year staff.

To be precise, David Price is 33 years old, Steven Wright 34 and Ryan Brasier 31 (Price and Brazier share an August 26 birthday while Wright celebrates four days later).

 

Rick Porcello turns 30 years old this week and Chris Sale turns 30 in March.

Edited December 24, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

To be precise, David Price is 33 years old, Steven Wright 34 and Ryan Brasier 31 (Price and Brazier share an August 26 birthday while Wright celebrates four days later).

 

I was going by the baseball reference page, but you are right. Still, our pitching staff amazingly has no pitchers over 34, and no major ones over 33.

 

My overall point is that one cannot look at the 2018 Sox moving to the 2019 Sox as a team that should decline due to age. We have more key players on the upswing towards prime or in the middle of their prime that those that are post prime. Plus, the one that are post prime aren't 36-42 years old.

 

[Kimmi]

It's pretty hard to improve on a 119-57 season anyway.

 

This. Although I do have to point out that Pythagoras has us as a 103 win team, your point stands. There's not a lot that needs to be done, especially when most of the team will be back. Sign a couple of solid relievers and call it a day.

 

Let the other teams worry about improving to our level.

[Kimmi]

What I am saying is that there is no improvement over the team that won it all this year. Basically the same team minus Kelly and Kimbrel . D.D. needs to fill those shoes just to stay as good as we were at the end . Sure , it will be good to have Eovaldi and Pearce from the start .

 

Dombrowski is not finished. He will sign at least one reliever, probably two.

[Kimmi]

I doubt the Red Sox will place Rafael Devers on the shelf for three years to make an age-appropriate comparison.

 

Devers will sink or swim as a young player who posted 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 110 in 58 games of his age 20 season and 1.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 121 games of his age 21 season.

 

Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.

 

We're Red Sox fans. We don't temper expectations.

[Kimmi]

Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons?

 

I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible.

 

I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.

 

Despite the opinions of many, IMO, Devers was called up before he was ready.

 

He was thrown into the fire without having the benefit of being able to work through any issues and season himself at the minor league level. We tend to forget how young he is.

 

We've read that he's spending the offseason working with JD Martinez.

 

I am optimistic about his upcoming season.

[Kimmi]

I remember when I was discussing how many of our up and coming young stars had a setback in 2017, some suggested that maybe these players just weren't as good as we thought they were, and their early career success might have been outlier seasons. Maybe 2018 put that argument to rest, but I'm sure some people (especially non Sox fans) might think 2018 was a peak year for many of our players, and a regression should be expected.

 

While that certainly could happen, if you look at the the ages of our key players, I'm thinking there's an equally good chance we see continued improvement.

 

I was 100% with you last season, and I am 100% with you this season.

 

If ever a team had a legitimate chance to repeat as World Series Champs, this team does.

[Kimmi]

All positives.....This is a good team on paper that's done it before where it counts, on the field.

 

Last year at this time, we had Hanley. He was replaced by JD Martinez. We had Pom. Now we have Eovaldi. We had no partner for Moreland. Now we have full year of Pearce. We wanted to know if Betts would come back from his pedestrian performance from 2017. He answered with a MVP season. JBJ is slowing rounding into all around professional. Devers made his sophomore adjustments. Sure it was painful at times but he survived. Beni overcame his sophomore year from 2017 and came back strong. Price bounced back. In my mind his contract has been well worth it. 3 division titles and a world series ring in his three years. E Rod looked stellar while he was healthy.

 

I'm just not concerned with this team. DD will do something about the pen before it's all said and done. It's only day before Christmas Eve.

 

Good post Nick.

 

I am not concerned about this team either.

[Kimmi]

MLBTR...

 

Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel was reportedly seeking a $100MM-plus contract as of earlier this month, though it’s “believed” he has dropped his price, Heyman writes. According to Heyman, the 30-year-old Kimbrel has gone down to $86MM – the same value of the five-year deal the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Chapman’s contract remains the richest ever for a reliever, and given Kimbrel’s production to date, it’s unsurprising he’s aiming to match or exceed it. Also unsurprising: Kimbrel’s price is still too rich for the Red Sox’s blood, Heyman hears, suggesting they may be willing to go to four years and $60MM to $70MM.

 

There is speculation that the market for Kimbrel is just not there, and that he may just fall back into the Red Sox laps.

 

I still wouldn't sign him for 4 years. My preference would be 2 years, but I'd be (begrudgingly) willing to do three.

[Kimmi]

I am about as optimistic as anyone. However, it is not realistic to expect that Eovaldi , Price and Pearce will be able to maintain the level of play they showed in October. It is not realistic to think that everyone else will stay healthy and productive. It is not realistic to think that those who need to improve will actually do so. Winning as decisively as we did can breed a false sense of confidence. Now the first order of business is to fill out the bullpen with two quality arms , at least one of whom has the ability to close. Then we should be ready to defend our title. But expect a tough battle with the Yankees . That is reality.

 

I don't expect to win 109 games again. I also don't expect anything to be a cakewalk. That last year's season looked as easy as it did was truly a surprise.

 

I do, however, expect to contend for the division and another WS ring, even if we did nothing else for the remainder of the off season.

 

Do you really think Dombrowski is finished? He will improve the BP. Guaranteed.

[oldtimer]

I don't expect to win 109 games again. I also don't expect anything to be a cakewalk. That last year's season looked as easy as it did was truly a surprise.

 

I do, however, expect to contend for the division and another WS ring, even if we did nothing else for the remainder of the off season.

 

Do you really think Dombrowski is finished? He will improve the BP. Guaranteed.

 

I think DD is watching the Kiimbrel market closely and is not going to act until he Kimbrel decides what he will do. I would be reluctant to sign Kimbrel to more than 2years and like you, my upper limit would be 3 years. The contract might be too rich and club limiting so I expect DD to head in another direction with the FA closer for 2 years and fill in the BP from our minors, at least until we see how that would work. We still have an unknown in Pedroia. That situation should be clarified when Pedroia starts to run in January. We need too leave some flexibility in the payroll structure to allow us to deal with that uncertainty.

[notin]

I think DD is watching the Kiimbrel market closely and is not going to act until he Kimbrel decides what he will do. I would be reluctant to sign Kimbrel to more than 2years and like you, my upper limit would be 3 years. The contract might be too rich and club limiting so I expect DD to head in another direction with the FA closer for 2 years and fill in the BP from our minors, at least until we see how that would work. We still have an unknown in Pedroia. That situation should be clarified when Pedroia starts to run in January. We need too leave some flexibility in the payroll structure to allow us to deal with that uncertainty.

 

Kimbrel isn’t signing a deal for fewer years than Joe Kelly did, unless the AAV is through the roof.

 

The market for relievers is crazy, but close to last year. That means Kimbrel is likely to find someone willing to pay him somewhere among Davis, Chapman and Jansen type money.

 

The complete lack of (public) interest in Cody Allen has me thinking he might be the market bottom sneak target. But that could change any minute now. Brad Brach is looking like King of the Discount Closers, if it comes to that...

[moonslav59]

I don't expect to win 109 games again. I also don't expect anything to be a cakewalk. That last year's season looked as easy as it did was truly a surprise.

 

I do, however, expect to contend for the division and another WS ring, even if we did nothing else for the remainder of the off season.

 

Do you really think Dombrowski is finished? He will improve the BP. Guaranteed.

 

We could win 100 games in 2019 and still be as good, if not better than 2018- with KImbrel or without Kimbrel.

 

I agree that DD is not finished, but I think he'll get one RP'er by trade and then try to find a cheap RP'er through free agency (maybe Cody Allen?).

[moonslav59]

I was 100% with you last season, and I am 100% with you this season.

 

If ever a team had a legitimate chance to repeat as World Series Champs, this team does.

 

know projecting future performance levels is not an exact science, in fact it is far from one. That being said, age progression and regression charts are usually a pretty accurate, although individual players have ups and downs on either side of the prime year peak on the chart. 2017 saw a lot of down years with players on the upside of prime. 2018 may have seen some players exceeding what was expected, but when players are on the upside, it's hard to know how much better they can still be, or if their biggest year came before the normal prime peak year.

 

It's pretty much agreed that most players start declining at age 30, and just about everyone declines by age 33. Here's a good article...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

 

Note: the article shows how differing skills peak at different ages.

 

Let's say 29 is prime. Some think 27-28 is prime, but I'm going with 29.

 

Here's a look at our key players and their position on the age curve chart.

 

My list is in order of how I view their importance to our team in 2019:

 

Red= Post Prime

Blue= Barely Post Prime

 

26 Betts

31 JDM

29 Sale

26 Bogey

33 Price

24 Beni

30 Porcello

28 JBJ

28 Eovaldi

25 ERod

22 Devers

28 Vazquez

28 Barnes

31 Brasier

33 Moreland

35 Pearce

31 Nunez

29 Leon

29 Hembree

30 B Holt

34 Wright

28 Johnson

30 Thornburg

30 Workman

30 Velazquez

35 Pedey

26 Swihart

 

As you can see, 10 of our top 13 players are approaching or in prime, and only 1 (Price) is significantly past prime. Even Price is just 33, and he's not 36-42 like some key starters on other teams.

 

Our oldest players are all under 36.

 

33 Price

33 Moreland

35 Pearce

34 Wright

35 Pedey

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

 

M e r r y

 

C h r i s t m a s !

 

[Nick]

 

M e r r y

 

C h r i s t m a s !

 

 

Did you go Sox or Rays for Xmas?

[Kimmi]

I think DD is watching the Kiimbrel market closely and is not going to act until he Kimbrel decides what he will do. I would be reluctant to sign Kimbrel to more than 2years and like you, my upper limit would be 3 years. The contract might be too rich and club limiting so I expect DD to head in another direction with the FA closer for 2 years and fill in the BP from our minors, at least until we see how that would work. We still have an unknown in Pedroia. That situation should be clarified when Pedroia starts to run in January. We need too leave some flexibility in the payroll structure to allow us to deal with that uncertainty.

 

It would be nice to have Kimbrel back, but it would have to be on the team's terms, not on his terms. Kimbrel's initial asking price of 6 years is starting to sound as ridiculous as JD's original asking price last off season. I give Dombrowski credit for waiting out the market on relievers.

[Kimmi]

We could win 100 games in 2019 and still be as good, if not better than 2018- with KImbrel or without Kimbrel.

 

I agree that DD is not finished, but I think he'll get one RP'er by trade and then try to find a cheap RP'er through free agency (maybe Cody Allen?).

 

As others have said, I am just not concerned with the current state of our team. We are that good.

 

I'm not sure where Dombrowski will find our relievers, but I know that we are not going into the 2019 season with our BP as currently constructed. That is just not something Dombrowski would do.

[Kimmi]

know projecting future performance levels is not an exact science, in fact it is far from one. That being said, age progression and regression charts are usually a pretty accurate, although individual players have ups and downs on either side of the prime year peak on the chart. 2017 saw a lot of down years with players on the upside of prime. 2018 may have seen some players exceeding what was expected, but when players are on the upside, it's hard to know how much better they can still be, or if their biggest year came before the normal prime peak year.

 

Most of our players are still in or are approaching their prime years. I didn't see any performances that I would consider to be fluky. There is no reason to expect significant drop offs from this team. There are some players who might not be quite as good as they were this year, like Mookie, but there are others who should improve, like Devers.

 

Barring extreme injuries, we are good to go.

[Bellhorn04]

As others have said, I am just not concerned with the current state of our team. We are that good.

 

I'm not sure where Dombrowski will find our relievers, but I know that we are not going into the 2019 season with our BP as currently constructed. That is just not something Dombrowski would do.

 

It's not something Theo or Ben would do, either. If you look at their histories, most years Theo and Ben went into the season having invested pretty heavily in the bullpen through signings or trades.

[Kimmi]

It's not something Theo or Ben would do, either. If you look at their histories, most years Theo and Ben went into the season having invested pretty heavily in the bullpen through signings or trades.

 

I responded to this in the other thread, so I won't respond again, except to say:

 

Theo > Ben > Dave

[kenmeister]

I responded to this in the other thread, so I won't respond again, except to say:

 

Theo > Ben > Dave

 

I have a tough time judging Ben because he made some really good moves and some colossal blunders.

[Bellhorn04]

I have a tough time judging Ben because he made some really good moves and some colossal blunders.

 

There's another reason it's tough to judge Ben. He's never been a GM before or after his 3.5 year stint with us.

[Kimmi]

I have a tough time judging Ben because he made some really good moves and some colossal blunders.

 

Ben was not given the chance to see things through.

 

He should not have been 'fired' so quickly.

 

The back to back last place finishes colored everyone's judgment (except mine ) on just how good the team really was.

[notin]

As others have said, I am just not concerned with the current state of our team. We are that good.

 

 

Also, it’s December...

[moonslav59]

Most of our players are still in or are approaching their prime years. I didn't see any performances that I would consider to be fluky. There is no reason to expect significant drop offs from this team. There are some players who might not be quite as good as they were this year, like Mookie, but there are others who should improve, like Devers.

 

Barring extreme injuries, we are good to go.

 

I agree, and I think there's at least an equal chance our offense improves next year.

 

Our pen looks to be significantly worse, at this point. Enough to make a huge difference? Maybe.

 

I'm pretty sure DD makes at least one move to improve in that area, and after that deal is done, the real debate will begin.

 

[notin]

There's another reason it's tough to judge Ben. He's never been a GM before or after his 3.5 year stint with us.

 

There has reportedly been interest in him for his services, but we don’t even know if he wants to be a GM...

[Bellhorn04]

There has reportedly been interest in him for his services, but we don’t even know if he wants to be a GM...

 

I'm guessing he's had opportunities and that he doesn't want that position again.

[notin]

I'm guessing he's had opportunities and that he doesn't want that position again.

 

Exactly. Unlike most GMs, he has a World Series title in the role (plus a couple others). I’ve seen plenty of GMs of last place teams get hired in the same capacity somewhere else again and again...