A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[cp176]

And both won a WS. Remember DD used same formula with the Tigers, only difference was the kids we Drafted on this Sox Team, were huge impacts. Just be happy DD, didn't screw that up. Remember after AS Break, Sale had only 4 starts. So basically for 2 Months, he had very little impact on this team, later in season.

Price came through and not many see this, during stretch run.

 

I think that most people who follow the Sox saw how important David Price was to the team coming down the stretch. Even the most notorious haters out there begrudgingly gave him some credit.

[moonslav59]

To all the posters who bashed Price or the Price signing, I have two questions:

 

Do you think it was worth it to sign him?

 

Are you happy with the rest of his deal or did you hope he had opted out this winter?

Edited December 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Nathan Freakin' Eovaldi!

 

I hope so!

[Bellhorn04]

To all the posters who bashed Price or the Price signing, I have two questions:

 

Do you think it was worth it to sign him?

 

Are you happy with the rest of his deal or do you hope he opts out this winter?

 

(He has already opted in.)

[cp176]

To all the posters who bashed Price or the Price signing, I have two questions:

 

Do you think it was worth it to sign him?

 

Are you happy with the rest of his deal or do you hope he opts out this winter?

 

Of course it was worth it to sign him. I think that you know perfectly well where that answer leads too. It clearly opens the door to that old old debate about the length and cost of his contract. So with all of that - of course it was worth it to sign him but it would have been better if the contract had not been for 7 years and for 30+ million per year.

[moonslav59]

(He has already opted in.)

 

I fixed the tense, TY.

[moonslav59]

Of course it was worth it to sign him. I think that you know perfectly well where that answer leads too. It clearly opens the door to that old old debate about the length and cost of his contract. So with all of that - of course it was worth it to sign him but it would have been better if the contract had not been for 7 years and for 30+ million per year.

 

You weren't against the contract day one, were you?

 

I did not like the deal, but I thought it was necessary and sided on the side of being for it.

 

I thought Price was the best choice due to being the most likely to be very good for a longer time than other choices that year or the previous year.

[notin]

You weren't against the contract day one, were you?

 

I did not like the deal, but I thought it was necessary and sided on the side of being for it.

 

I thought Price was the best choice due to being the most likely to be very good for a longer time than other choices that year or the previous year.

 

In a rare occurrence, I liked the Price contract on Day One. But the opt-out was a big part of it...

[cp176]

You weren't against the contract day one, were you?

 

I did not like the deal, but I thought it was necessary and sided on the side of being for it.

 

I thought Price was the best choice due to being the most likely to be very good for a longer time than other choices that year or the previous year.

 

I absolutely liked the deal on day one but I think that you likely know how I feel about silly money being paid to anyone in the entertainment industry. Our society just tends to be hugely hypocritical. I'm that guy who just keeps laughing when so many keep trying to imagine what these rich owners are going to keep spending on contracts as we go forward. Many of us go nuts over Steve Pierce's one year deal because it is only going to cost 6 million dollars. To me that is a ridiculous amount of money to pay anyone to play baseball for a living but I fully realize where priorities seem to lie these days and believe me I'm not complaining one bit.

[moonslav59]

Here's an updated look at our 2019 budget in Tax dollars and arb estimates:

 

31M Price

22M JD

20.6 Porcello

19.5 M Betts

17.0 Eovaldi

15.0 Sale

13.8 Pedey

11.3 Bogey

8.9 JBJ

6.5 Moreland

6.3 Pearce

5.0 Nunez

4.5 Vaz

4.3 ERod

3.5 Holt

3.3 Barnes

3.0 Leon

3.0 Wright

1.8 Thornburg

1.3 Hembree

1.0 Workman

1.0 Swihart

 

$203.6 Sub Total

 

+$18.5 Pablo

+$4.4M Others on 40 man roster

+$14.5M Player benefits

 

$241M Total

 

That's $35M over the limit.

 

Cots has us at $240M.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

You weren't against the contract day one, were you?

 

I did not like the deal, but I thought it was necessary and sided on the side of being for it.

 

I thought Price was the best choice due to being the most likely to be very good for a longer time than other choices that year or the previous year.

 

A $217 million deal is scary for a pitcher no matter who it is. And Price gave us some reasons to be quite worried about him health-wise and otherwise.

 

I was always just hoping for the best.

[kenmeister]

I was happy we got Price but thought $30 million per season was a monstrous overpay. My primary target was actually Johnny Cueto, who had one great year with San Fran and seems to have petered out, so don't listen to me

[Nick]

I was happy we got Price but thought $30 million per season was a monstrous overpay. My primary target was actually Johnny Cueto, who had one great year with San Fran and seems to have petered out, so don't listen to me

 

We were in NO POSITION to argue about the money or length at the time. You're the new GM on the heels of 2 dead last place finishes. I repeat, 2 freakin' last place finishes. Henry tells you to do something about it. And you're going to argue about the amount of money for best available pitcher?

 

We're currently in the midst of 'happy times' for Sox Nation. 3 consecutive division titles and 1 World Series ring. It was all made possible by signing Price as DD put his signature on the team. It's silly to go back and re-write history.

 

It was ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do AT THE TIME. I still don't see a viable starting pitcher from our farm on the horizon.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

Here's an updated look at our 2019 budget in Tax dollars and arb estimates:

 

31M Price

22M JD

20.6 Porcello

19.5 M Betts

17.0 Eovaldi

15.0 Sale

13.8 Pedey

11.3 Bogey

8.9 JBJ

6.5 Moreland

6.3 Pearce

5.0 Nunez

4.5 Vaz

4.3 ERod

3.5 Holt

3.3 Barnes

3.0 Leon

3.0 Wright

1.8 Thornburg

1.3 Hembree

1.0 Workman

1.0 Swihart

 

$203.6 Sub Total

 

+$18.5 Pablo

+$4.4M Others on 40 man roster

+$14.5M Player benefits

 

$251M Total

 

That's $45M over the limit.

 

Cots has us at $240M. I don' see where I am wrong.

 

 

 

Your math is wrong below $203.6 Sub total....203.6+18.5+4.4+14.5 = $241 not $251 it's ok to make a mistake or two from time to time, Moon. That's nothing compared to, say, SIGINING PABLO SANDOVAL for $95M. I saw the $18.5M and I couldn't help it. And we're worried about Price's contract?

Edited December 7, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Your math is wrong below $203.6 Sub total....203.6+18.5+4.4+14.5 = $241 not $251 it's ok to make a mistake or two from time to time, Moon. That's nothing compared to, say, SIGINING PABLO SANDOVAL for $95M. I saw the $18.5M and I couldn't help it. And we're worried about Price's contract?

 

LOL! Thanks for being an eagle eye.

[kenmeister]

We were in NO POSITION to argue about the money or length at the time. You're the new GM on the heels of 2 dead last place finishes. I repeat, 2 freakin' last place finishes. Henry tells you to do something about it. And you're going to argue about the amount of money for best available pitcher?

 

We're currently in the midst of 'happy times' for Sox Nation. 3 consecutive division titles and 1 World Series ring. It was all made possible by signing Price as DD put his signature on the team. It's silly to go back and re-write history.

 

It was ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do AT THE TIME. I still don't see a viable starting pitcher from our farm on the horizon.

 

Like I said, I had it wrong. In fact I was harping on Price as nothing more than a #3 pitcher making #1+ money right up through the All Star Break. I did a breakdown of Price starts vs. E-Rod starts showing they are essentially the same and everything. And then ... Price just took off. I hope he keeps it up next year.

[kenmeister]

As for a viable starting pitcher, we keep trading them away. And I think Johnson and Velazquez could most certainly be #4-#5 starters on other teams.

[Nick]

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/next-offseasons-uncomfortable-reality-red-sox

 

Pretty good read from WEEI. Let's just enjoy 2019 season.

 

I think Rob visits this site.

[Dojji]

As for a viable starting pitcher, we keep trading them away. And I think Johnson and Velazquez could most certainly be #4-#5 starters on other teams.

 

Johnson yes, he could probably put up somewhere between a 4.2 and 4.7 ERA over 170+ innings right now, and that's good enough to be on a lot of teams' rotations.

 

I agree a little less completely about Velazquez, he seems like an Afredo Aceves type "tweener." Good enough for multiple innings of relief, not good enough to go through a lineup 3 times. Looking at his BAA and WHIP the guy would be torched as a regular in the rotation, keep him in the bullpen where he looks like a solid MR, that's where his calling is.

[notin]

Johnson yes, he could probably put up somewhere between a 4.2 and 4.7 ERA over 170+ innings right now, and that's good enough to be on a lot of teams' rotations.

 

I agree a little less completely about Velazquez, he seems like an Afredo Aceves type "tweener." Good enough for multiple innings of relief, not good enough to go through a lineup 3 times. Looking at his BAA and WHIP the guy would be torched as a regular in the rotation, keep him in the bullpen where he looks like a solid MR, that's where his calling is.

 

Johnson’s WHIP is only better than Velasquez’ by 0.02 last season, which amounts to 2 hits and walks in 100 IP, or 3 per year (assuming 150 IP). Hector’s career WHIP is actually better than Johnson’s...

[moonslav59]

Johnson yes, he could probably put up somewhere between a 4.2 and 4.7 ERA over 170+ innings right now, and that's good enough to be on a lot of teams' rotations.

 

Yes, he "could" put up numbers like these, and if he did, yes, he would be good enough to make some teams' rotations, but you have to remember, those teams have pitchers similar to Johnson (and Velazquez) who they feel "could" give them a 4.70 ERA over 170 IP.

 

Johnson has the potential to do even better than 4.20, but so do many SP'ers who won't put up 4.70 or better next year.

 

BTW, I like Wright as our 6th starter, until he proves otherwise.

 

[moonslav59]

So, we are about $5M away from the $40M penatly tax line. We need at least one more solid RP'er and maybe some cash for summer acquisitions.

 

Looks like we are going over the max line in 2019.

 

No biggie.

[moonslav59]

Steamer WAR Projections:

 

BOS

7.2 Betts

4.3 Bogey

3.8 JD Martinez

3.6 Beni

2.7 JBJ

2.5 Devers

2.1 Pedey

1.1 Pearce

1.1 Vazquez

0.6 Moreland

0.6 Holt

0.4 Nunez

0.3 leon

0.1 Swihart

 

HOU

5.3 Bregman

4.8 Correa

4.6 Altuve

4.3 Springer

1.6 Reddick

1.4 Chirinos

1.2 T White

0.8 Gurriel

0.8 Stassi

0.7 Tucker

0.6 T Kemp

 

 

NYY

4.8 Judge

3.7 Stanton

3.5 Sanchez

3.4 Hicks

2.5 Andujar

2.3 Torres

1.6 Gardner

1.5 Gregorius

1.5 Voit

 

CLE

6.7 Lindor

5.5 Ramirez

2.3 Diaz

1.6 Martin

1.4 Encarnacion

1.1 Kipnis

1.0 Alonso

 

CLE: Only team with 2 over 5.0

HOU: Only team with 4 over 4.0

BOS, HOU & NYY all have 4 guys over 3.0

BOS: Only team with 7 over 2.0

 

Steamer SP'ers

 

BOS

6.6 Sale

3.1 Price

2.7 Eovaldi

2.6 Porcello

1.9 ERod

 

HOU

5.1 Verlander

4.5 G Cole

2.2 J James

1.1 Peacock

 

NYY

4.5 Severino

4.0 Paxton

(3.3 Happ?

2.6 Tanaka)

1.4 CC Sab

0.6 Gray

 

CLE

4.8 Kluber

4.5 Carrasco

4.0 Bauer

2.6 Clevinger

2.2 Bieber

 

Cleveland will likely trade a pitcher, but they are the only team with 3 guys over 4.0 and 5 guys over 2.0. (We have 5 over 1.9 and are the only other AL team with 4 guys over 2.0.)

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If you add Pearce and Moreland, our 1B= 1.7.

 

Having 8 positions over 1.7 shows nice balance.

[Kimmi]

Sorry, you said 99. No do-overs.

 

Also, 101 wins would have meant a neck and neck race with the Yanks to avoid the WC game. It could have had a major impact on Cora's ability to rest guys.

 

I guarantee Cora was very happy to have that comfortable lead coming down the stretch and that it helped him get the team ready for the postseason.

 

Fair enough.

 

It's hard to argue what might have happened otherwise when you have the World Series Championship in the bag.

[Kimmi]

You're right, actually. He is predictable. Ben was the opposite. You never knew what the heck he was going to do.

 

Maybe, but as you know, I hold the under the radar moves in a lot higher regard than the obvious moves that result by way of being the highest bidder.

[Kimmi]

Sure you did.

 

Hold prospects. Draft well. Make poor free agent signings...

 

Et tu, Brute?

[Kimmi]

And both won a WS. Remember DD used same formula with the Tigers, only difference was the kids we Drafted on this Sox Team, were huge impacts. Just be happy DD, didn't screw that up. Remember after AS Break, Sale had only 4 starts. So basically for 2 Months, he had very little impact on this team, later in season.

Price came through and not many see this, during stretch run.

 

Dombrowski gets this team nowhere without the foundation set by Ben and Theo.

[Kimmi]

To all the posters who bashed Price or the Price signing, I have two questions:

 

Do you think it was worth it to sign him?

 

Are you happy with the rest of his deal or did you hope he had opted out this winter?

 

I did not like the Price contract. But I have said that if we win a WS, then all of the moves will be worth it.

 

Because we have a real chance at winning the title again in 2019, I'm glad that he did not opt out.

[moonslav59]

Sign Ottavino

 

Trade: Hembree, Swihart & Shawaryn

 

For: Kirby Yates