A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

Cherington nostalgia is understandable. You can't blame those who are afflicted with it. After all , Dombrowski decimated the farm. He traded away a bushel load of blue chip prospects who represented our future. All for the short lived satisfaction of a few great teams. Ben Cherington, on the other hand , despite his numerous dismal failures , had long range vision and a plan for great success somewhere down the road. A wonderful and sustainable future filled with seashells and balloons. A future totally devoid of cliffs.

 

Quit making strawman arguments. It doesn't suit you.

[Bellhorn04]

One of my worries will not be who we can sign, when and if we can sign them, or whether JH wants to spend his money on this team or not. It is all good stuff to talk about, I just have no interest in being critical of anyone who sees things differently. A lot of good things could happen over the next few years believe it or not as well as all the worrisome junk we hear so much about.

 

You hit the nail on the head there, it's all just stuff to talk about.

[sk7326]

Sucks to be a Yankee fan? No, it sucked to be a Yankee fan in 2013 when it was obvious the Yanks were staring a rebuild in the face and the Sox were winning the title. This has been the target since we blew it up in 2016.

 

Stump Merrill says hi.

[sk7326]

There will be decisions ahead - the Red Sox have been in an amazing position for a few years. With a young core and good management, and an incredible amount of money - the team has no reason not to blunt lots of the "cliff" effects. This doesn't mean eliminate them. But for the whining Yankees fans make out of 2013-14, they were 84+ win seasons where there was a meaningful playoff chase for the summer. They have had some bad luck in replenishing the farm so far (injuries and worse) but there is still a decent amount of time for that to get somewhat better.

[moonslav59]

There will be decisions ahead - the Red Sox have been in an amazing position for a few years. With a young core and good management, and an incredible amount of money - the team has no reason not to blunt lots of the "cliff" effects. This doesn't mean eliminate them. But for the whining Yankees fans make out of 2013-14, they were 84+ win seasons where there was a meaningful playoff chase for the summer. They have had some bad luck in replenishing the farm so far (injuries and worse) but there is still a decent amount of time for that to get somewhat better.

 

A decent amount of time?

 

DD has been in charge of the farm for 3 cycles, now. We will need youth infusion by 2020 and 2021.

 

We shouldn't ever stink, if we keep spending, and if our reset year we still spend near the luxury tax level, but there almost certainly will be, IMO, a season or two where we are not really contenders.

[kenmeister]

We shouldn't ever stink, if we keep spending, and if our reset year we still spend near the luxury tax level, but there almost certainly will be, IMO, a season or two where we are not really contenders.

 

On the other hand, we weren't expected to contend in 2013, but we had just the right free agent acquisitions. I'm still stunned that team won it all.

[moonslav59]

On the other hand, we weren't expected to contend in 2013, but we had just the right free agent acquisitions. I'm still stunned that team won it all.

 

I thought all those teams were good enough to compete (2012-2015). Now, highly competitive might be another story.

[kenmeister]

I thought all those teams were good enough to compete (2012-2015). Now, highly competitive might be another story.

 

Given our dead last finish in 2012 with a 69-93 record, most of us were just hoping to get back to being a .500 team in 2013. That year was incredible!

[dgalehouse]

I just don't agree with the gloom and doom forecast. We have the best team right now and by a pretty clear margin. And it is basically a young group. The trick will be to keep this bunch together . That will cost money , but money has not been a problem. We could use some help from the farm , but not a whole lot is needed at present. We should be okay. New York is really the only competition in the division. And with two wild cards , the playoffs will continue to be within reach. Don't worry.

[moonslav59]

Given our dead last finish in 2012 with a 69-93 record, most of us were just hoping to get back to being a .500 team in 2013. That year was incredible!

 

We had some hard luck in 2012 and made a lot of changes besides just the Napoli, Vic, Drew and Dempster signings. I loved the Uehara pick-up at the time. We still had Lester, Lackey, Buch and Doubront. We still had Papi, Ellsbury, Pedey and some depth.

 

I thought the 2012 team was better than .500 on paper, especisally before the season started, so I expected a bounce back in 2013 before all the signings.

[dgalehouse]

The 2013 Sox team was a very highly motivated group. The whole Boston Strong thing was very real. It seemed like we got the very best from just about everyone on that team. They were truly on a mission.

[Bellhorn04]

I just don't agree with the gloom and doom forecast. We have the best team right now and by a pretty clear margin. And it is basically a young group. The trick will be to keep this bunch together . That will cost money , but money has not been a problem.

 

It'll be impossible to keep them all, because good/great players who hit free agency are absurdly expensive. That's just economic reality, it's not really doom and gloom. OTOH there's nothing much to complain about. Titles are what it's all about and we've got 4 in 15 years.

[moonslav59]

The 2013 Sox team was a very highly motivated group. The whole Boston Strong thing was very real. It seemed like we got the very best from just about everyone on that team. They were truly on a mission.

 

We did get some up seasons from several players, but it wasn't as big a deal as many think it was.

 

Let's a have a look-see:

 

In order of most PAs in 2013

 

2013 OPS (2012 OPS) (2014 OPS)

.787 Pedey (.797) (.712)

.781 Ellsbury (.682) (.531 JBJ)

.959 Ortiz (1.026) (.873)

.842 Napoli (.812 AGon) (.789i)

.831 Nava (.835) (.706)

.801 Vic (.675 Sweeney/.674 Podsednik) (.812 Betts)

.777 Drew (.663 Aviles) (.660 Bogey)

.804 Salty (.742) (.611 AJ P)

.696 Middy (.835) (.711 Holt)

.772 Gomes (.807 Cody Ross) (.683)

.885 Carp (.692 Youk) (.710 Cespedes)

.785 Iggy (.705 Ciriaco) (.583 Drew)

 

[moonslav59]

We did get some up seasons from several players, but it wasn't as big a deal as many think it was.

 

Let's a have a look-see:

 

In order of most PAs in 2013

 

2013 OPS (2012 OPS) (2014 OPS)

.787 Pedey (.797) (.712)

.781 Ellsbury (.682) (.531 JBJ)

.959 Ortiz (1.026) (.873)

.842 Napoli (.812 AGon) (.789i)

.831 Nava (.835) (.706)

.801 Vic (.675 Sweeney/.674 Podsednik) (.812 Betts)

.777 Drew (.663 Aviles) (.660 Bogey)

.804 Salty (.742) (.611 AJ P)

.696 Middy (.835) (.711 Holt)

.772 Gomes (.807 Cody Ross) (.683)

.885 Carp (.692 Youk) (.710 Cespedes)

.785 Iggy (.705 Ciriaco) (.583 Drew)

 

 

Out of the 6 returning players from 2012, 4 had worse years in 2013 (Pedey, Papi, Nava & Middy).

 

Out of the 4 players that returned to meaningful roles in 2014, all did better in 2013 than 2014.

[moonslav59]

The pitching ups and downs were more noticeable.

 

ERA in 2013 in order of IP (2012) (2014)

 

3.75 Lester (4.82) (2.52)

3.53 Lackey (5.23 Beckett) (3.60)

4.57 Dempster (5.65 Cook) (4.43 RDLR)

4.32 Doub (4.86) (6.07)

1.74 Buch (4.56) (5.34)

1.09 Uehara (6.20 Melancon) (2.52)

3.16 Tazawa (1.43) (2.86)

4.04 Peavy (3.77 F Morales/8.28 Dice-K) (4.72)

1.81 Breslow (6.22 Bard) (2.29 Badenhop)

4.97 Workman (1.58 Atchison) (5.17)

4.86 Aceves (5.36) (4.11 Kelly)

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The pitching ups and downs were more noticeable.

 

ERA in 2013 in order of IP (2012) (2014)

 

3.75 Lester (4.82) (2.52)

3.53 Lackey (5.23 Beckett) (3.60)

4.57 Dempster (5.65 Cook) (4.43 RDLR)

4.32 Doub (4.86) (6.07)

1.74 Buch (4.56) (5.34)

1.09 Uehara (6.20 Melancon) (2.52)

3.16 Tazawa (1.43) (2.86)

4.04 Peavy (3.77 F Morales/8.28 Dice-K) (4.72)

1.81 Breslow (6.22 Bard) (2.29 Badenhop)

4.97 Workman (1.58 Atchison) (5.17)

4.86 Aceves (5.36) (4.11 Kelly)

 

 

Buch, Douby and Koji did noticeably better in 2013 than 2012 or 2014, but Lester was better in 2014, Tazawa was better both other years and Lackey was about the same in 2013 as 2014.

[Kimmi]

On the other hand, we weren't expected to contend in 2013, but we had just the right free agent acquisitions. I'm still stunned that team won it all.

 

Why weren't we expected to contend in 2013? IMO, we were.

[Kimmi]

Given our dead last finish in 2012 with a 69-93 record, most of us were just hoping to get back to being a .500 team in 2013. That year was incredible!

 

2012 was all about Bobby V. Getting rid of him probably added 20 wins alone.

[Kimmi]

It'll be impossible to keep them all, because good/great players who hit free agency are absurdly expensive. That's just economic reality, it's not really doom and gloom. OTOH there's nothing much to complain about. Titles are what it's all about and we've got 4 in 15 years.

 

I fully endorse this post.

[Larry Cook]

It'll be impossible to keep them all, because good/great players who hit free agency are absurdly expensive. That's just economic reality, it's not really doom and gloom. OTOH there's nothing much to complain about. Titles are what it's all about and we've got 4 in 15 years.

 

Isn’t that why teams need to keep replenishing the talent via the minors?

 

We need to sign the superstars, like mookie and let the secondary talent go, like Bradley and bogey, but ideally we would be bringing up talent to replace these type guys.

 

The piece that is continuing to be thorn in our side is our inability to produce top of the rotation starting pitching.

[moonslav59]

Isn’t that why teams need to keep replenishing the talent via the minors?

 

We need to sign the superstars, like mookie and let the secondary talent go, like Bradley and bogey, but ideally we would be bringing up talent to replace these type guys.

 

The piece that is continuing to be thorn in our side is our inability to produce top of the rotation starting pitching.

 

...and are the Chathams and Chavis's good enough to replace the Bogey's and JBJ's of this team?

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see anything that promising to fill the holes we might have in 1-2 years:

 

Porcello & Sale: Groome/Shawaryn/D Hernandez/Houk? (Mata too far away)

Bogey: Chatham (A Flores too far away)

JBJ: Decker too far away

Moreland/Pearce: Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Travis? (D Diaz & Casas too far away)

 

This assumes we keep Betts.

[moonslav59]

How is this for a blockbuster fantasy deal?

 

Trade:

Pedroia ($40M/3)

Castillo ($26M/2 not on luxury tax)

Hembree (3 arbs)

Swihart (4 arbs)

Chavis

 

 

For:

R Cano ($24M x 5= $120M)

A Colome ( 2 arbs- ~$7.5M + $???M)

Cash: $8M x 5 years

[dgalehouse]

It'll be impossible to keep them all, because good/great players who hit free agency are absurdly expensive. That's just economic reality, it's not really doom and gloom. OTOH there's nothing much to complain about. Titles are what it's all about and we've got 4 in 15 years.

 

Bell , The solution might be to decide which guy you are willing to let go . ( Even if it happens to be Mookie ) . Then use the money saved to keep the others. Please note : I am not advocating letting Mookie walk , just using that for an example. Trying to point out that there are ways to avoid going over the dreaded precipice. A chess master can often find a way to escape a predicament.

[notin]

Bell , The solution might be to decide which guy you are willing to let go . ( Even if it happens to be Mookie ) . Then use the money saved to keep the others. Please note : I am not advocating letting Mookie walk , just using that for an example. Trying to point out that there are ways to avoid going over the dreaded precipice. A chess master can often find a way to escape a predicament.

 

The thing is, letting Mookie walk might enable the Sox to keep Xander and Bradley and maybe keep up the arbitration payments on Benintendi. So while the idea seems crazy, the alternatives can still be pretty good...

[moonslav59]

It may very well come down to keeping Betts or Bogey & JBJ combined.

 

Both choices will hurt, and we're not even talking about Sale & Porcello.

[moonslav59]

If we could cover 3B and 1B with Devers, Chavis, Dalbec (Ockimey.Travis) by 2020, we'd save $13M on the Moreland & Pearce deals.

 

That might be doable.

 

We have nobody in the works to take over for JBJ or Bogey. Chatham is a long shot.

 

It goes without saying nobody can replace Betts.

 

Asking for our system to come up with a solid SP'er after over a decade of false hopes, is beyond wishful thinking. With Eovaldi a FA this winter and Porcello & Sale next winter, it's hard to imagine any other way of finding capable replacements any other way than by signings or re-signings.

 

It's all about what the budget will be in 2020 and 2021, and if a reset of the luxury tax is going to happen by 2021.

 

[Nick]

Lets cut to the chase.

 

Committed contract amount for 2020 plus benefits add up to $116M. Luxury tax limit is $208M. I think we need to reset in 2020. Say another $20M for arbitration increases. That puts CB Payroll at $136M. We have $72M to work with. We don't have to worry about 2021 (ie signing Betts) as long as we reset in 2020. In theory out budget for 2021 is $250M. Penalty will be around $10M and Henry will pay it.

 

 

We have Price, E Rod, Wright, Hector and Johnson. Bullpen can be constructed internally with what we'll have plus the farm.

 

We have Vazquez, Pedroia, Devers, Beni, JBJ and Betts. We need 1B, DH, SS.

 

If would help tremendously if JD will not opt out and wait one more year. Remember the goal is to spend less than $72M to shore up SP, 1B, DH and SS.

 

Lets say we already have Eovaldi under contract for $17M. We then sign Xander for $20M. That leaves us with $25M. Can we be creative extending JD with another front loaded AAV value of $25M with opt out after 2 years? His cash outlay would be close to $27M. Or we can just say screw it and extend Porcello. We'd have starters of Price, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. We would need to fill 1B and DH internally. I guess we can always trade JBJ to create some cap room.

 

We sign Betts for 2021 and out window will be extended for additional 2/3 years.

 

I'm convinced we're not in as bad shape as many here think.

Edited November 26, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Lets cut to the chase.

 

Committed contract amount for 2020 plus benefits add up to $116M. Luxury tax limit is $208M. I think we need to reset in 2020. Say another $20M for arbitration increases. That puts CB Payroll at $136M. We have $72M to work with. We don't have to worry about 2021 (ie signing Betts) as long as we reset in 2020. In theory out budget for 2021 is $250M. Penalty will be around $10M and Henry will pay it.

 

 

We have Price, E Rod, Wright, Hector and Johnson. Bullpen can be constructed internally with what we'll have plus the farm.

 

We have Vazquez, Pedroia, Devers, Beni, JBJ and Betts. We need 1B, DH, SS.

 

If would help tremendously if JD will not opt out and wait one more year. Remember the goal is to spend less than $72M to shore up SP, 1B, DH and SS.

 

Lets say we already have Eovaldi under contract for $17M. We then sign Xander for $20M. That leaves us with $25M. Can we be creative extending JD with another front loaded AAV value of $25M with opt out after 2 years? His cash outlay would be close to $27M. Or we can just say screw it and extend Porcello. We'd have starters of Price, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. We would need to fill 1B and DH internally. I guess we can always trade JBJ to create some cap room.

 

We sign Betts for 2021 and out window will be extended for additional 2/3 years.

 

I'm convinced we're not in as bad shape as many here think.

 

I don't think we reset in 2020. I think we look at 2021 to do it.

 

Your 2020 numbers miss a few things.

 

$15M for player benefits

 

Arb raises will be on top of this year's arb raises, which will be way more than $20M from the 2018 contract numbers.

 

You mention we will need 1B, DH and SS, but what about replacing Sale & Porcello?

 

Here's how I look at 2020:

 

Luxury tax dollars

 

31 Price

24 Betts (last of 3 arbs)

14 JBJ (last of 4 arbs)

14 Pedey

12 ERod (3 of 4 arbs)

6 Vaz

6 Wright (last of 3 arbs)

5 Barnes (2nd of 3 arbs)

5 Beni (1st of 3 arbs)

3 Hembree (2nd or 3 arbs)

3 Workman (last of 3 arbs)

 

That's $123M for 11 players. We need 14 more at the ML level and 15 to fill out the 40 man. At minimum cost, that's $145M in salaries plus $15M player benefits= $160M. That's with replacement level players in all open slots.

 

That leaves $48M to upgrade some of those 14 slots with better players. Devers, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Poyner, Lin and maybe a couple others could do nicely, but replacing Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi, JD, Bogey, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt & Thornburg while staying under the luxury tax is frightening.

 

I don't see it happening until 2021, and if we keep many of the players listed above at more than a 1 year deal, and we want to reset in 2021, then bye-bye to Betts & JBJ.

[Kimmi]

Isn’t that why teams need to keep replenishing the talent via the minors?

 

We need to sign the superstars, like mookie and let the secondary talent go, like Bradley and bogey, but ideally we would be bringing up talent to replace these type guys.

 

The piece that is continuing to be thorn in our side is our inability to produce top of the rotation starting pitching.

 

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner.

 

The thing that makes mega deals for players like Mookie possible is having the cost controlled players to complement them.

 

We are not going to be able to afford to keep all of our stars.

[Kimmi]

Bell , The solution might be to decide which guy you are willing to let go . ( Even if it happens to be Mookie ) . Then use the money saved to keep the others. Please note : I am not advocating letting Mookie walk , just using that for an example. Trying to point out that there are ways to avoid going over the dreaded precipice. A chess master can often find a way to escape a predicament.

 

So if you let Mookie or whomever walk, who are you going to replace him with?

 

FTR, I am advocating letting Mookie walk as opposed to signing him to a 10 year deal.