A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

As you know I'm with you on Buch.

 

{Fist bump}

[notin]

Hanley is reportedly working out very hard to be able to come back next season.

 

I would take him back on a moderate, one year deal to platoon with Moreland.

 

Buchholz too.

 

 

I wouldn’t sign Buchholz to platoon with Moreland. But as a depth pitcher, I make that deal yesterday...

[Kimmi]

I wouldn’t sign Buchholz to platoon with Moreland. But as a depth pitcher, I make that deal yesterday...

 

Ha. Well played.

 

I'll have to be more careful about the way I word things.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn’t sign Buchholz to platoon with Moreland. But as a depth pitcher, I make that deal yesterday...

 

The Buchholz posse - me, you, Kimmi and Slash.

[Jasonbay44]

Buchholz wouldn't be a bad depth signing. I don't want to depend on him as a #3 or higher like we did in the past, but as a bottom of the rotation/spot starter, you could do much worse. He had a fine year last year in Arizona before, of course getting injured again.

[moonslav59]

Moreland might not have made much of a difference, but no one knew that was going to happen during the offseason. We had a supposedly healthy Hanley/Moreland tandem at 1B with Hanley being able to fill the DH role when not playing first.

 

Dombrowski did not have to rush to sign JD.

 

There was no rush, because there were no other bidders.

 

DD was not going to let JD slip away- Moreland or no Moreland.

[moonslav59]

Hanley is reportedly working out very hard to be able to come back next season.

 

I would take him back on a moderate, one year deal to platoon with Moreland.

 

Buchholz too.

 

You're losing me, Kimmi.

 

Just killing me!

 

[Bellhorn04]

There was no rush, because there were no other bidders.

 

But we didn't know that for quite a while, and perhaps DD himself didn't either. He doesn't have a crystal ball. I think signing Moreland gave him some security in that area so he could move on. He wasn't interested in dicking around with guys like LoMo and Duda. That's what he's like.

[moonslav59]

But we didn't know that for quite a while, and perhaps DD himself didn't either. He doesn't have a crystal ball. I think signing Moreland gave him some security in that area so he could move on. He wasn't interested in dicking around with guys like LoMo and Duda. That's what he's like.

 

There's no way, DD was thinking Moreland and nobody else. He wasn't going to start the season with the roster we had minus JD.

 

If he thought we'd miss out on JD, he'd have gone large elsewhere. I really doubt the Moreland signing meant as much as some seem to think it did.

 

I'm pretty sure about one thing: we don't win with just Moreland.

 

Plus, we knew the Yanks and Dodgers weren't in on JD pretty early, so DD knew he could outbid anyone else.

[moonslav59]

MLB reports...

 

Eovaldi's right arm gets clean bill of health

Nov. 15: While some front offices may be wary of free agent Nathan Eovaldi's health, especially after the right-hander just went through a taxing postseason, his doctor gave him a glowing review following a routine visit Tuesday.

 

"To me, he's over Tommy John surgery and he's over revision Tommy John surgery," Dr. Christopher Ahmad, the Yankees' team physician who operated on Eovaldi's elbow and forearm in 2016, told NBC Sports Boston. "And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate."

 

As Ahmad noted, Eovaldi has undergone two Tommy John surgeries during his career, the second one coming in 2016. This past season was his first since that second procedure, and he threw 111 innings during the regular season.

 

Eovaldi possesses incredible velocity, averaging 97.2 mph with his four-seam fastball in the regular season and nearly 99 mph in the playoffs, getting it as high as 101.6 mph, per Statcast™, which puts extra stress on his arm.

 

The 28-year-old was used in a variety of roles during the postseason, and he made three appearances in the span of four days during the World Series, the final one a 97-pitch outing on one day of rest. However, he appears to have come through no worse for the wear.

 

"Sometimes subtle features can be picked up that the ligament's acting a little weak, like small bone spurs forming often can be a sign that the ligament is a little loose or acting weak," Ahmad said. "Bone spurs form to compensate. No bone spurs. And even coming off an extended postseason, he didn't have any muscle problems like muscle strain patterns. So essentially, his elbow checked out as well as it could be after having a second-time Tommy John surgery."

[Nick]

There's no way, DD was thinking Moreland and nobody else. He wasn't going to start the season with the roster we had minus JD.

 

If he thought we'd miss out on JD, he'd have gone large elsewhere. I really doubt the Moreland signing meant as much as some seem to think it did.

 

I'm pretty sure about one thing: we don't win with just Moreland.

 

Plus, we knew the Yanks and Dodgers weren't in on JD pretty early, so DD knew he could outbid anyone else.

 

Again, missing the point. Yep, Moreland was not going to be the last signing. JD was also not worried about Moreland signing. It wouldn't have matter who but Morleand and JD do not play same position. Moreland signing had nothing to do wit JD.

 

I was merely pointing out that IN WORST CASE SCENARIO, he had every position covered BEFORE he went after the BIG FISH. That's what grown ups do in management. DD is methodical. DD is astute. DD gets what he wants.

[moonslav59]

Again, missing the point. Yep, Moreland was not going to be the last signing. JD was also not worried about Moreland signing. It wouldn't have matter who but Morleand and JD do not play same position. Moreland signing had nothing to do wit JD.

 

I was merely pointing out that IN WORST CASE SCENARIO, he had every position covered BEFORE he went after the BIG FISH. That's what grown ups do in management. DD is methodical. DD is astute. DD gets what he wants.

 

Nothing I said disputes any of this.

 

In hindsight, one could argue DD jumped the gun on Moreland as the market fell on just about everyone not signed right away and after Hosmer.

 

I realize nobody foresaw this, but GMs are routinely criticized for not foreseeing things.... like Ben not foreseeing the collapse of Pablito and HRam.

[notin]

Nothing I said disputes any of this.

 

In hindsight, one could argue DD jumped the gun on Moreland as the market fell on just about everyone not signed right away and after Hosmer.

 

I realize nobody foresaw this, but GMs are routinely criticized for not foreseeing things.... like Ben not foreseeing the collapse of Pablito and HRam.

 

He wasn’t going to get Moreland that much cheaper. He got him for basically the same deal he signed Chris Young to...

[moonslav59]

Cost of luxury tax, $40M plus threshold penalty

 

2018 $40M x 20% + $20M x 12% = $ 8M + $2.4M = $10.4M total cost $50.4M

2019 $40M x 30% + $20M x 12% = $12M + $2.4M = $14.4M total cost $54.4M

2020 $40M x 50% + $20M x 12% = $20M + $2.4M = $22.4M total cost $62.4M

 

Let's keep the math simple and assume that the luxury tax payroll is $200M. My question is this. In big scheme of things, is there a huge difference between $262.4M (50% penalty) vs $250.4M (20% penalty)?

 

What I'm getting to is this. Once you make the decision NOT to adhere to the luxury tax limit of $200M, would $12M dissuade you from putting the best product on the field?

 

For the Sox, the magic number is NOT $200M, but it's $240M and penalty of $22.4M (50%-3rd year) is not much off from the penalty of $10.4M (30% - 2nd year).

 

We PISS AWAY that money each year in non performing payroll. It's only 5% more. ($12.4M/$250.4)

 

We don't need to reset. Let's just wait for the new CB Agreement and hope the threshold gets a major bump for 2022,

 

Again, you miss the point (LOL, like that?)

 

It's not just the tax, it's the contract plus the tax.

 

While another team (under the limit) might sign a guy to $30M, we'd be paying (assuming it's over the $40M limit $30M + $15M (50% tax) +$3.6M (12% surtax).

 

It's not just the $18.6M in taxes Henry pays the guy he signs after we're $40M over, it's the $30M contract as well. $30M more becomes $48.6M more.

 

Is Betts worth $49M a year?

[moonslav59]

He wasn’t going to get Moreland that much cheaper. He got him for basically the same deal he signed Chris Young to...

 

I'd still have preferred Moose at $6.5M x 1 over Moreland for 2 years.

 

look, I'm not complaining. Moreland did what we signed him to do and allowed us to dump HRam (maybe the real reason all along). I'm extremely happy with what DD did.

[oldtimer]

All the talk now is just blather to keep our interest up in the sox during the off season, which is a good thing. I think it is getting close to time to give new years predictions. I predict that DD will go out and make one or more changes that no one here is suggesting or talking about and DD's changes will be helpful to the Sox. Keeps me in a positive frame of mind.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure DD is well aware that there are a lot of good players out there to be plucked via signing or trading, not just Eovaldi, Kelly and Pearce.

 

It wouldn't surprise me, if we don't bring any of those three back but still get some fine talent to fill our biggest needs.

 

Of all the needs we have, DD will likely choose 1-2 to wait it out and see if an in-house solution can be found, and if not, leave enough budget space to go out and get a couple players we need mid-summer. He's done a great job on those types of deals.

 

Here's a look at our in-house solutions to some key need areas this winter:

 

Starting Pitcher:

Sale, Price, Porcello & ERod are locks

Johnson

Velazquez

Wright (had surgery)

Cuevas

Walden

Shawaryn

Shepherd

(D Hernandez AA)

 

Relief Pitchers:

Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman are probably locks

Thornburg

Poyner

(Johnson/Velazquez/Wright)

Scott

Walden

Lakins

(Feltman AA)

Maddox

 

1B (platoon)

Moreland is a lock

Swihart

(Holt can play 1B in a pinch)

Chavis (move to 1B?)

Ockimey

Travis

 

2B

Pedey (big question mark)

Holt

Nunez (Knee needs to improve to play 2B)

Lin

Quiroz

M Hernandez (injury history)

 

To me, DD might let 1b & 2B ride, until mid-season and available spend resources on SP & the pen.

 

[notin]

I’d be surprised if anything was done about 2b. If the Sox stick to any luxury tax limits, I think the only bat added at all might be a RHH 1b to compliment Moreland. It might be Pearce or another FA ( Reynolds? Valencia?) or acquired via trade (Cron?).

 

Although this actually would be a good year to get a 2b, given the options on the free agent market. Dozier, LeMahieu, Lowrie, Murphy, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Forsythe, Walker....

[notin]

All the talk now is just blather to keep our interest up in the sox during the off season, which is a good thing. I think it is getting close to time to give new years predictions. I predict that DD will go out and make one or more changes that no one here is suggesting or talking about and DD's changes will be helpful to the Sox. Keeps me in a positive frame of mind.

 

Despite that I will probably name 50 or 60 players I think the Sox could use and afford, I fully expect that when DD makes his actual moves, they will be ones I didn’t anticipate...

[moonslav59]

I’d be surprised if anything was done about 2b. If the Sox stick to any luxury tax limits, I think the only bat added at all might be a RHH 1b to compliment Moreland. It might be Pearce or another FA ( Reynolds? Valencia?) or acquired via trade (Cron?).

 

Although this actually would be a good year to get a 2b, given the options on the free agent market. Dozier, LeMahieu, Lowrie, Murphy, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Forsythe, Walker....

 

It might be Chavis' time to show what he's got. If he doesn't work out, finding a 1Bman mid-season is one of the easiest positions to fill.

[Slasher9]

Despite that I will probably name 50 or 60 players I think the Sox could use and afford, I fully expect that when DD makes his actual moves, they will be ones I didn’t anticipate...

 

i dont think we resign Evo, Kimbrel, or Pearce. we will try and resign Kelly. i expect DD to sign a couple low $ relievers.

closer role will be up for grabs in ST.

JDM will be platoon 1b with Mitchie.

SP will be internal although i can see us doing a Clay type signing for depth.

[Dojji]

closer role will be up for grabs in ST.

 

Doubt it. Not for a team with obvious ambitious to repeat in the World Series. We may or may not bring back Kimbrel, but DD isn't going into the season without a plan for exactly who he wants to close. The answer might surprise us, but there will BE an answer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dombrowki has a history of poor pen composition. That being said, he’s always had a good closer. In Florida, it was Nen. In Detroit, it was KRod and Valverde. In Boston, it’s been Kimbrel. Since he hasn’t anointed anyone at this point, I’d assume he brings in a tried and true name to close

[notin]

Agreed. He’s bringing in a closer. There are plenty of experienced closers in free agency and he has certainly shown he isn’t adverse to trades. But one way or another, the Sox will start spring training with an experienced closer.

 

I say this knowing full well that experienced closer might be Tyler Thornburg...

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. He’s bringing in a closer. There are plenty of experienced closers in free agency and he has certainly shown he isn’t adverse to trades. But one way or another, the Sox will start spring training with an experienced closer.

 

I say this knowing full well that experienced closer might be Tyler Thornburg...

 

That isn't funny.

[notin]

That isn't funny.

 

If he gets healthy like he was in Milwaukee, why not?

 

Of course I have no way of knowing if he ever will be, but DD certainly does. And he did acquire Thornburg for a reason.

[cp176]

Dombrowki has a history of poor pen composition. That being said, he’s always had a good closer. In Florida, it was Nen. In Detroit, it was KRod and Valverde. In Boston, it’s been Kimbrel. Since he hasn’t anointed anyone at this point, I’d assume he brings in a tried and true name to close

 

Since I really am not particularly interested in what DD did before he came to Boston, I will say that it looks to me as though that bullpen was pretty good overall this year and barring injury it could have been even better. I think that yup DD will continue to add to an already pretty solid looking bullpen.

[cp176]

If he gets healthy like he was in Milwaukee, why not?

 

Of course I have no way of knowing if he ever will be, but DD certainly does. And he did acquire Thornburg for a reason.

 

 

I think that Tyler Thornburg very likely will figure in to things somewhere in that bullpen for us this year.

[Bellhorn04]

If he gets healthy like he was in Milwaukee, why not?

 

Of course I have no way of knowing if he ever will be, but DD certainly does. And he did acquire Thornburg for a reason.

 

Based on how he looked last year I can't see DD counting on him for much. You mentioned him as a non-tender candidate.

 

DD will almost certainly acquire an established late-inning guy or two, no?

[harmony]

Based on how he looked last year I can't see DD counting on him for much. You mentioned him as a non-tender candidate.

 

DD will almost certainly acquire an established late-inning guy or two, no?

Seattle could make available two years of reliever Alex Colome, who in 2017 led the American League in saves pitching in the AL East.

 

However, I don't see a good match for a trade.