A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Is it also slam dunk that JD will opt out after 2019 instead of 2020?

 

He's paid $23.75M for 2018, 2019 (opt out), and 2020 (opt out). Last two years he'll only get $19.375M.

 

Can he get a 4 year $100M after 2019 if he repeats this year's numbers? Why didn't he get that last year when he was year younger? Plenty of people had opportunity to sign him.

 

I think the JD was just a free agent at the wrong time last year. Two of the perennial biggest spenders basically sat out of the free agent market in NYY and LAD . And despite this, his agent was making outrageous demands...

[moonslav59]

Would you give Kelly, a 4-year, $28M and Eovaldi a 4-year $60M? Would that get the job done?

 

If the plan is to reset after 2020, no. I wanna keep Betts & JBJ more.

 

If not, yes.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the JD was just a free agent at the wrong time last year. Two of the perennial biggest spenders basically sat out of the free agent market in NYY and LAD . And despite this, his agent was making outrageous demands...

 

In this case it was more like outrageous suggestions.

[cp176]

Would you give Kelly, a 4-year, $28M and Eovaldi a 4-year $60M? Would that get the job done?

 

If there is such a thing as a face of the franchise, Mookie is it but he is no dummy. He is going to watch this market so closely. He has every right to think that he is worth as much as any player in the game today. I would be pleasantly surprised if he negotiates anything soon.

i would not give Joe Kelly a 4 year contract. I might go 4 for Eovaldi (3 with an option).

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree on JD being an FA at the wrong time. He was also coming off a Lisfranc injury. I think there were legitimate durability concerns with JD and getting him on a long term deal for his 30+ seasons didn't seem reasonable. Now, if Boras had come to the Yankees early in the process and offered them the same deal he signed with the sox, then we wouldn't have dealt for Stanton and JD would be in NY. Boras has had lots of success as a super agent, but he read the tea leaves very wrong last offseason. When the big spenders pull back and tons of teams are tanking, you need to be aggressive and get a deal done early lest you run out of bidders

[notin]

If there is such a thing as a face of the franchise, Mookie is it but he is no dummy. He is going to watch this market so closely. He has every right to think that he is worth as much as any player in the game today. I would be pleasantly surprised if he negotiates anything soon.

i would not give Joe Kelly a 4 year contract. I might go 4 for Eovaldi (3 with an option).

 

I’d be surprised if anyone gave Kelly 4 years. Last off-season setup guys were getting offers in the neighborhood of 2 years $15-16mill. I expect him to be in that range.

 

I also think Eovaldi might not get 4 guaranteed years. Even after his terrific postseason, he still only threw just over 100 IP and the durability concerns are legitimate. I could see an option or two in his next contract...

Edited November 13, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

I like many of our pen arms going into next year and many others offer a promise of something good, but we need to add at least one solid arm, preferably with some closer experience or a closer "profile."

 

Losing 100+ innings from Kimbrel & Kelly will not be easily made up for.

[cp176]

I’d be surprised if anyone gave Kelly 4 years. Last off-season setup guys were getting offers in the neighborhood of 2 years $15-16mill. I expect him to be in that range.

 

I also think Eovaldi might not get 4 guaranteed years. Even after his terrific postseason, he still only threw just over 100 IP and the durability concerns are legitimate. I could see an option or two in his next contract...

 

hey notin - I think that we are on the same page. I would like to see Kelly signed but I would hate to have us jettison him to a closer's role. I think that he certainly has value though.

I do think that we wind up signing Eovaldi. I'm on the 3 and an option with him. Another thing that I like about Dombrowski is that I don't think that he afraid to move on if he can't do business with someone.

[Nick]

One thing I liked about DD last year was that he signed Moreland early. Obviously he very well may have overpaid for him but after the signing, we had every position covered. Remember, Hanley was probably going to DH.

 

Moreland signing I believe gave DD an insurance against overpaying JD. His approach very well may have been "look, we have a team. JD can join us or not, but it will be on our terms." He outplayed Boras.

[moonslav59]

One thing I liked about DD last year was that he signed Moreland early. Obviously he very well may have overpaid for him but after the signing, we had every position covered. Remember, Hanley was probably going to DH.

 

Moreland signing I believe gave DD an insurance against overpaying JD. His approach very well may have been "look, we have a team. JD can join us or not, but it will be on our terms." He outplayed Boras.

 

I hated the Moreland signing, then it looked good, then okay, then maybe not so good, then okay again.

 

I'd rather have Pearce over Moreland for 2019, if I had to choose just one, despite Pearce being on the wrong side of a platoon.

 

I don't think us having Moreland put any scare into JD and his contract negotiations.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Moreland has been a touch above replacement level as a Red Sox player. His cost is what you’ll have to spend to fill spots with guys a touch above replacement level at other positions

[Dojji]

I don't mind Moreland. He's a non-problem and with Travis sputtering out, we don't have a viable replacement anyway.

 

I've got my eye on Ockimey as a possible 1B of the future, at least to the point where he's replacing the above replacement level prodution Moreland provides. He and Chavis are the two best chances we have to replace Moreland's production with a competent 1B.

[S5Dewey]

I think the JD was just a free agent at the wrong time last year. Two of the perennial biggest spenders basically sat out of the free agent market in NYY and LAD . And despite this, his agent was making outrageous demands...

 

2019 will be the year that determines whether the owners are taking a harder line on FA signings. When something happens for one year it's easy to find isolated reasons for it. When it happens a second year it's becoming a pattern.

[Bellhorn04]

I hated the Moreland signing, then it looked good, then okay, then maybe not so good, then okay again.

 

 

See, while the rest of us thought it was an OK signing, nothing to get excited about one way or the other, you were flipping and flopping with your opinion based on how he was going.

 

(Teasing.)

[notin]

See, while the rest of us thought it was an OK signing, nothing to get excited about one way or the other, you were flipping and flopping with your opinion based on how he was going.

 

(Teasing.)

 

I admit I wasn’t wild about. It seemed like a wasted opportunity to add an exciting player (like Edwin Encarnacion). But Mitch has grown on me...

[Bellhorn04]

I admit I wasn’t wild about. It seemed like a wasted opportunity to add an exciting player (like Edwin Encarnacion). But Mitch has grown on me...

 

So why has he grown on you?

[moonslav59]

See, while the rest of us thought it was an OK signing, nothing to get excited about one way or the other, you were flipping and flopping with your opinion based on how he was going.

 

(Teasing.)

 

He ended up doing about what I expected... subpar performance offensively from a 1Bman.

 

This is the second year he got hurt, and with no HRam around anymore, we went out and got Pearce. That's probably the best thing about the Moreland signing.

 

He worked out okay, but I'd rather have his $5.5M for 2019 to apply towards signing Pearce or the like.

[Dojji]

So why has he grown on you?

 

Probably because Pearce is covering for a lot of his flaws, and Moreland is a good bet to get Job #1 done.

 

Offensive expectations notwithstanding the first job of any player is to defend their own position. Offense can come as a result of everyone's combined work, with elite players picking up the slack for everyone else, but the only player who can defend first base is the first baseman. Moreland is an above average defender which covers a multitude of sins.

[moonslav59]

Probably because Pearce is covering for a lot of his flaws, and Moreland is a good bet to get Job #1 done.

 

Offensive expectations notwithstanding the first job of any player is to defend their own position. Offense can come as a result of everyone's combined work, with elite players picking up the slack for everyone else, but the only player who can defend first base is the first baseman. Moreland is an above average defender which covers a multitude of sins.

 

It's debatable his defense covers his .758 OPS, but I wouldn't say he was a big (or even small) negative overall.

[Nick]

Speaking of Yankees, if they want to remain under luxury tax, they have approximately $33M left for FA spending. Machado would eat up all of it. They will probably go for 1 FA starting pitcher and another via trade. $22M paid to Jacoby is a big hurt. Maybe he can stay healthy next two years.

 

Yankees do have some trading chips for sure. It's not as though they can spend unlimited amount of money if and it's a big if, they was to stay away from luxury tax.

 

Good news for them is that for 2021, they only have two players under contract for $42M. They will have expensive arbitration players by then.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Nick

[notin]

So why has he grown on you?

 

A three run pinch homer off Kenley Jansen definitely helped.

[Nick]

A three run pinch homer off Kenley Jansen definitely helped.

 

Pretty much everyone on Sox roster gets a pass after winning the World Series, for me. Even Pom, who did not hurt us.

[sk7326]

Pretty much everyone on Sox roster gets a pass after winning the World Series, for me. Even Pom, who did not hurt us.

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Pom comes back.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Yankees, if they want to remain under luxury tax, they have approximately $33M left for FA spending. Machado would eat up all of it. They will probably go for 1 FA starting pitcher and another via trade. $22M paid to Jacoby is a big hurt. Maybe he can stay healthy next two years.

 

Yankees do have some trading chips for sure. It's not as though they can spend unlimited amount of money if and it's a big if, they was to stay away from luxury tax.

 

Good news for them is that for 2021, they only have two players under contract for $42M. They will have expensive arbitration players by then.

 

I think the Yanks will go way over the luxury tax limit and maybe close to $40M over.

 

They re-set this year partially for this FA class.

[moonslav59]

Pretty much everyone on Sox roster gets a pass after winning the World Series, for me. Even Pom, who did not hurt us.

 

Yes, indeed.

[Bellhorn04]

A three run pinch homer off Kenley Jansen definitely helped.

 

Cool. One little correction-Mitch's 3 run homer was off Madson. Pearce then got the game tying homer off Jansen.

[notin]

Cool. One little correction-Mitch's 3 run homer was off Madson. Pearce then got the game tying homer off Jansen.

 

Oh. Then forget it. Trade Moreland now...

[moonslav59]

Oh. Then forget it. Trade Moreland now...

 

Would you trade Moreland, if it meant we could then afford to sign Pearce to $16M/2?

[notin]

Would you trade Moreland, if it meant we could then afford to sign Pearce to $16M/2?

 

 

No. I was kidding about trading Moreland. Pearce is a complimentary player. But Moreland is a starter who needs a compliment. It makes no sense to have Pearce over him beyond postseason heroics. But when you look at Pearce, you need to accept that there is a reason he has never started more than 77 games in a season. He’s good at what he does, but you shouldn’t lose sight of what he does...

[moonslav59]

No. I was kidding about trading Moreland. Pearce is a complimentary player. But Moreland is a starter who needs a compliment. It makes no sense to have Pearce over him beyond postseason heroics. But when you look at Pearce, you need to accept that there is a reason he has never started more than 77 games in a season. He’s good at what he does, but you shouldn’t lose sight of what he does...

 

I think you convinced me.

 

I was thinking maybe a Chavis-Pearce platoon might work out better than a Moreland-Swihart/Holt/Chavis/Ockimey one.