Sale is at Mass General

[mvp 78]

Would you like him as much if he cut up the Friday night reds into little bits with a scissor and dumped the pieces in Cora’s office?

 

TIL, this Sox season is basically a ChiSox season.

[FredLynn]

Sale is out of the hospital and will rejoin the team before game 3:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/chris-sale-update-red-sox-ace-released-from-hospital-set-to-rejoin-team-before-alcs-game-3/

[Maxbialystock]

he has to shed the tough guy persona and wear a warm undershirt when the temps are in the 40's.

 

I said that during the game (game 1 of the ALCS), but wasn't sure I was right.

[notin]

Hey notin - we agree on something. i never said that the Red Sox should pony up a 6 or 7 year deal for Sale. They might but I doubt it. I think that many free agents are signed to lengthy contracts the look outrageously bad in there latter years. If you are mega rich and can get 4 very good years and couple of scratchers - yup somebody would bite on that especially if those very good ones are similar to what Chris Sale has given to date. At some point everyone slows down we know that but at what point is the question. If you think, like you might, that this is the beginning of a slow decline for Chris Sale, I think that there are plenty on board who would agree. I don't but that doesn't matter. I don't think that he is quite ready for the old folk's joint just yet.

 

I actually would not be surprised if DD did re-sign Sale, hoping for 4 or 5 good years before the fallout. If he gets that, Price will be off the books and that money becomes the replacement for Sale.

 

Teams clearly do expect those long term deals to falter at the back end, which is why it's a common practice to backload them. To me, the idea appears to be to pay less for the player during his best years, so you have the financial ability to surround him with a better team and ncrease the chances for a title. And when his talent goes south, the team was looking at potentially struggling anyway.

 

The downside is it does make it impossible to trade the player, but then even the "cheaper" salaries in a lot of those back-loaded deals were effectively no trade clauses...

[notin]

And Branch Rickey was fired by the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1950 -- 5 years before they won their one and only World Championship. Rickey went to the Pirates for 5 years and finished last every year but one. In that other year, he finished next to last.

 

You understate his career with the Dodgers, where he finished first or second in the NL 6 times in 9 seasons, and only finish below third once. His first year in Brooklyn saw the Dodgers win 104 games, only to finish 2 games out of first. (Granted, they won 100 games the year before he got there. He did inherit some quality, but he also kept it going.)

 

He was there for some good Dodger teams...

[Nick]

I actually would not be surprised if DD did re-sign Sale, hoping for 4 or 5 good years before the fallout. If he gets that, Price will be off the books and that money becomes the replacement for Sale.

 

Teams clearly do expect those long term deals to falter at the back end, which is why it's a common practice to backload them. To me, the idea appears to be to pay less for the player during his best years, so you have the financial ability to surround him with a better team and ncrease the chances for a title. And when his talent goes south, the team was looking at potentially struggling anyway.

 

The downside is it does make it impossible to trade the player, but then even the "cheaper" salaries in a lot of those back-loaded deals were effectively no trade clauses...

 

Your argument is little weak. Price and Sale would be on the roster TOGETHER for another three years, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Not sure if we can afford it.

 

Starters, controlled through

 

Price 2019 2020 2021 2022

E Rod 2019 2020 2021

Wright 2019 2020

Sale 2019

Porcello 2019

 

Better way to say is that Porcello's $20.6M will go towards Sale. But where does Xander's money come from? What about Betts the following year?

Edited October 15, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Your argument is little weak. Price and Sale would be on the roster TOGETHER for another three years, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Not sure if we can afford it.

 

Starters, controlled through

 

Price 2019 2020 2021 2022

E Rod 2019 2020 2021

Wright 2019 2020

Sale 2019

Porcello 2019

 

Better way to say is that Porcello's $20.6M will go towards Sale. But where does Xander's money come from? What about Betts the following year?

 

Xanders comes from pablo's

[harmony]

Xanders comes from pablo's

Shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius each have one more season before free agency.

 

Just before the announcement of the latter's pending Tommy John surgery, New York Post columnist Joel Sherman wrote that Gregorius could be in line for an extension similar to the five-year, $70 million deal the Seattle Mariners gave shortstop Jean Segura in June 2017:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/11/70m-for-gregorius-five-questions-yankees-should-mull-early/

 

Over the past three seasons Bogaerts has posted 12.8 fWAR in 441 games, Segura 11.8 fWAR in 422 games and Gregorius 11.4 fWAR in 423 games.

[cp176]

I actually would not be surprised if DD did re-sign Sale, hoping for 4 or 5 good years before the fallout. If he gets that, Price will be off the books and that money becomes the replacement for Sale.

 

Teams clearly do expect those long term deals to falter at the back end, which is why it's a common practice to backload them. To me, the idea appears to be to pay less for the player during his best years, so you have the financial ability to surround him with a better team and ncrease the chances for a title. And when his talent goes south, the team was looking at potentially struggling anyway.

 

The downside is it does make it impossible to trade the player, but then even the "cheaper" salaries in a lot of those back-loaded deals were effectively no trade clauses...

 

I agree

[cp176]

Would you like him as much if he cut up the Friday night reds into little bits with a scissor and dumped the pieces in Cora’s office?

 

Slasher - I had a great response to you but slow internet tonight meant that it did not get posted. It is just as well since it was shamefully naughty and very much out of character for someone as serious as I am. If it had gone through, I was going to have to claim that someone had hacked my account and was posing as me. Oh well - the moment has gone and now I'm all calmed down. Yup you can just consider me a super Sale fan I guess.

[moonslav59]

Shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius each have one more season before free agency.

 

Just before the announcement of the latter's pending Tommy John surgery, New York Post columnist Joel Sherman wrote that Gregorius could be in line for an extension similar to the five-year, $70 million deal the Seattle Mariners gave shortstop Jean Segura in June 2017:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/11/70m-for-gregorius-five-questions-yankees-should-mull-early/

 

Over the past three seasons Bogaerts has posted 12.8 fWAR in 441 games, Segura 11.8 fWAR in 422 games and Gregorius 11.4 fWAR in 423 games.

 

Yes, and Pablo has 1 more year of pay plus $5M in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

Shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius each have one more season before free agency.

 

Just before the announcement of the latter's pending Tommy John surgery, New York Post columnist Joel Sherman wrote that Gregorius could be in line for an extension similar to the five-year, $70 million deal the Seattle Mariners gave shortstop Jean Segura in June 2017:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/11/70m-for-gregorius-five-questions-yankees-should-mull-early/

 

Over the past three seasons Bogaerts has posted 12.8 fWAR in 441 games, Segura 11.8 fWAR in 422 games and Gregorius 11.4 fWAR in 423 games.

 

A 5/70 extension for Gregorius seems very reasonable to say the least.

 

I strongly suspect Bogey is not signing up for anything that low.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I understand how Sale feels. When I think about David Price pitching, my stomach starts to hurt as well.

[notin]

Your argument is little weak. Price and Sale would be on the roster TOGETHER for another three years, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Not sure if we can afford it.

 

Starters, controlled through

 

Price 2019 2020 2021 2022

E Rod 2019 2020 2021

Wright 2019 2020

Sale 2019

Porcello 2019

 

Better way to say is that Porcello's $20.6M will go towards Sale. But where does Xander's money come from? What about Betts the following year?

 

Those have been my points all along, that I would let Sale and Kimbrel walk to keep the Killer B’s, or as many of them as possible. I’m pretty convinced (with no evidence whatsoever) Dombrowski and I disagree on both Kimbrel and Sale...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

My guess is that Sale went into the hospital for left shoulder surgery. We will know this for certain on Thursday night when he comes out throwing right-handed.

[Bellhorn04]

My guess is that Sale went into the hospital for left shoulder surgery. We will know this for certain on Thursday night when he comes out throwing right-handed.

 

Maybe they swapped his shoulders.

[notin]

My guess is that Sale went into the hospital for left shoulder surgery. We will know this for certain on Thursday night when he comes out throwing right-handed.

 

Like in The Princess Bride?

[mvp 78]

Like in The Princess Bride?

 

Inconceivable!

[jacksonianmarch]

A 5/70 extension for Gregorius seems very reasonable to say the least.

 

I strongly suspect Bogey is not signing up for anything that low.

 

I think the thing we must realize between the two is that Bogey is looked at as a middle of the order hitter with untapped potential. He’s got a Machado type upside that he just hasn’t tapped yet. I think most people see Didi right now and say that he’s maxed out his potential and he’s about as good as he will get.

 

also, a 5/70 for Didi was after his injury. Prior to the injury, he was in line for a 9 figure guarantee

[Bellhorn04]

I think the thing we must realize between the two is that Bogey is looked at as a middle of the order hitter with untapped potential. He’s got a Machado type upside that he just hasn’t tapped yet. I think most people see Didi right now and say that he’s maxed out his potential and he’s about as good as he will get.

 

also, a 5/70 for Didi was after his injury. Prior to the injury, he was in line for a 9 figure guarantee

 

I don't think that's right. Pretty sure I saw the 5/70 thing in the NY Post before the TJS was announced.

[Slasher9]

Slasher - I had a great response to you but slow internet tonight meant that it did not get posted. It is just as well since it was shamefully naughty and very much out of character for someone as serious as I am. If it had gone through, I was going to have to claim that someone had hacked my account and was posing as me. Oh well - the moment has gone and now I'm all calmed down. Yup you can just consider me a super Sale fan I guess.

 

lol. i think i dodged a bullet here.

[Nick]

Xanders comes from pablo's

 

Okay, Professor, let's play a game of chess.

 

Assuming current $233M CB Payroll is acceptable, or let's get right up to the second tier threashhold of $237M. Say $39M over luxury tax limit.

 

Hanley's $22M will take care of arbitration raises.

 

We have Kimbrel's $13M, Pom's $8.5M and Kelly's $3.8M. Throw in another $9M for increase in luxury tax limit to $206M. That's another $34M. Let's hold out $4M for increase in contracts for current players, Vaz, Sale, etc.

 

Basically, we have $30M to reload. How about signing Machado and moving Devers to 1B? Machado signing would hedge against losing out on Xander the following year. I'll take a chance on Brasier or whoever is closing with additional bat of Machado.

 

After 2019 season, Porcello, Xander, and Sale will become FA. Incremental cost to sign these guys will be less than their final contracts.

 

Porcello is already making $20.6M. How much more can he garner in open market? I'd say he'd be lucky to match his current salary when he becomes FA.

 

Sale will be up to $13M or so for 2019. Say we give him $30M, the delta is only $17M. If we don't re-sign Porcello, over half of Sale's $30M contract comes out of Porcello's.

 

I doubt anyone will give Xander more than $25M. So his delta is perhaps $10-15M, easily covered by Pablo's contract going forward.

 

Moreland's contract will also expire so there's additional money there.

 

We may have to trade away JBJ's money in order to cover the additional cost of signing Betts.

 

In summary,

 

Let Kimbrel walk. Sign Eovaldi as hedge against both Porcello and Sale leaving year later. Fill the pen with Barnes, Brasier, etc. Take a chance on internal candidates in 2019 and then sign a closer at trade deadline if needed.

Let Porcello walk when his contract expires, re-sign Sale.

Re-Sign Xander.

Trade Bradley and re-sign Betts.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

In summary,

 

Let Kimbrel walk. Sign Eovaldi as hedge against both Porcello and Sale leaving year later. Fill the pen with Barnes, Brasier, etc. Take a chance and sign a closer at trade deadline if needed in 2019.

Let Porcello walk when his contract expires, re-sign Sale.

Re-Sign Xander.

Trade Bradley and re-sign Betts.

 

Not an unreasonable plan.

[oldtimer]

Okay, Professor, let's play a game of chess.

 

Assuming current $233M CB Payroll is acceptable, or let's get right up to the second tier threashhold of $237M. Say $39M over luxury tax limit.

 

Hanley's $22M will take care of arbitration raises.

 

We have Kimbrel's $13M, Pom's $8.5M and Kelly's $3.8M. Throw in another $9M for increase in luxury tax limit to $206M. That's another $34M. Let's hold out $4M for increase in contracts for current players, Vaz, Sale, etc.

 

Basically, we have $30M to reload. How about signing Machado and moving Devers to 1B? Machado signing would hedge against losing out on Xander the following year. I'll take a chance on Brasier or whoever is closing with additional bat of Machado.

 

After 2019 season, Porcello, Xander, and Sale will become FA. Incremental cost to sign these guys will be less than their final contracts.

 

Porcello is already making $20.6M. How much more can he garner in open market? I'd say he'd be lucky to match his current salary when he becomes FA.

 

Sale will be up to $13M or so for 2019. Say we give him $30M, the delta is only $17M. If we don't re-sign Porcello, over half of Sale's $30M contract comes out of Porcello's.

 

I doubt anyone will give Xander more than $25M. So his delta is perhaps $10-15M, easily covered by Pablo's contract going forward.

 

Moreland's contract will also expire so there's additional money there.

 

We may have to trade away JBJ's money in order to cover the additional cost of signing Betts.

 

In summary,

 

Let Kimbrel walk. Sign Eovaldi as hedge against both Porcello and Sale leaving year later. Fill the pen with Barnes, Brasier, etc. Take a chance on internal candidates in 2019 and then sign a closer at trade deadline if needed.

Let Porcello walk when his contract expires, re-sign Sale.

Re-Sign Xander.

Trade Bradley and re-sign Betts.

 

I'll wait for the season to play out before making further suggestions for the follow on, but I will point out that Porcello has been a quality pitcher, an inning eater, and doesn't seem to get injured. Hate to lose his presence.

[moonslav59]

Okay, Professor, let's play a game of chess.

 

Assuming current $233M CB Payroll is acceptable, or let's get right up to the second tier threashhold of $237M. Say $39M over luxury tax limit.

 

Hanley's $22M will take care of arbitration raises.

 

True, and if you go by MLBTR's numbers, which are usually very accurate our arb raises will come to about what HRam got paid...

 

+8.5 Betts

+4.9 Bogey

+2.5 Erod

+1.8 JBJ

+1.2 Holt

+3M others (Wright, Barnes, Hembree, Leon, Thornburg, Smith, Swihart)

 

BUT, we also have to count...

 

Vaz's extension kicks in at $3.1M more than 2018.

 

Plus Sale gets $2.5M more for his option and bonus, and Nunez gets $1M more, so +$3.5M here.

 

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players (assuming minimum wage)

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

 

If we try to stay below the $40M line, what can we get for $39M?

 

,,,Basically, we have $30M to reload. How about signing Machado and moving Devers to 1B? Machado signing would hedge against losing out on Xander the following year. I'll take a chance on Brasier or whoever is closing with additional bat of Machado.

 

So, move Bogey to 3B or convince Macho to go back to 3B?

 

I'd pass on Machado.

 

I also would not count on Brasier to be our closer.

 

After 2019 season, Porcello, Xander, and Sale will become FA. Incremental cost to sign these guys will be less than their final contracts.

 

Porcello is already making $20.6M. How much more can he garner in open market? I'd say he'd be lucky to match his current salary when he becomes FA.

 

Sale will be up to $13M or so for 2019. Say we give him $30M, the delta is only $17M. If we don't re-sign Porcello, over half of Sale's $30M contract comes out of Porcello's.

 

I'm fine with this idea, but replacing Porcello will not be easy with no money to spend.

 

I doubt anyone will give Xander more than $25M. So his delta is perhaps $10-15M, easily covered by Pablo's contract going forward.

 

Bogey will certainly get over 420M a year and probably $25M x 6 or 7 years, especially if he hitslike2018 for another year.

 

Moreland's contract will also expire so there's additional money there.

 

If we sign Macado and move Devers to 1B, I'd trade Moreland.

 

We may have to trade away JBJ's money in order to cover the additional cost of signing Betts.

 

JBJ's arb cost is below what I feel his real value is. I would not trade JBJ.

 

In summary,

 

Let Kimbrel walk. Sign Eovaldi as hedge against both Porcello and Sale leaving year later. Fill the pen with Barnes, Brasier, etc. Take a chance on internal candidates in 2019 and then sign a closer at trade deadline if needed.

Let Porcello walk when his contract expires, re-sign Sale.

Re-Sign Xander.

Trade Bradley and re-sign Betts.

 

No Porcello, Kimbrel and JBJ. Sounds like a steep valley or cliff, to me.

 

$33M Betts

$32M Sale

$31M Price

$24M Bogey

 

$120M for 4 guys at a time when Beni, Devers and others hit their arb years.

 

It's hard to justify half of our payroll budget going to just 4 players, with most of their years falling on the wrong side of 31.

[Nick]

Okay, Professor, let's play a game of chess.

 

Assuming current $233M CB Payroll is acceptable, or let's get right up to the second tier threashhold of $237M. Say $39M over luxury tax limit.

 

Hanley's $22M will take care of arbitration raises.

 

True, and if you go by MLBTR's numbers, which are usually very accurate our arb raises will come to about what HRam got paid...

 

+8.5 Betts

+4.9 Bogey

+2.5 Erod

+1.8 JBJ

+1.2 Holt

+3M others (Wright, Barnes, Hembree, Leon, Thornburg, Smith, Swihart)

 

BUT, we also have to count...

 

Vaz's extension kicks in at $3.1M more than 2018.

 

Plus Sale gets $2.5M more for his option and bonus, and Nunez gets $1M more, so +$3.5M here.

 

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players (assuming minimum wage)

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

 

If we try to stay below the $40M line, what can we get for $39M?

 

,,,Basically, we have $30M to reload. How about signing Machado and moving Devers to 1B? Machado signing would hedge against losing out on Xander the following year. I'll take a chance on Brasier or whoever is closing with additional bat of Machado.

 

So, move Bogey to 3B or convince Macho to go back to 3B?

 

I'd pass on Machado.

 

I also would not count on Brasier to be our closer.

 

After 2019 season, Porcello, Xander, and Sale will become FA. Incremental cost to sign these guys will be less than their final contracts.

 

Porcello is already making $20.6M. How much more can he garner in open market? I'd say he'd be lucky to match his current salary when he becomes FA.

 

Sale will be up to $13M or so for 2019. Say we give him $30M, the delta is only $17M. If we don't re-sign Porcello, over half of Sale's $30M contract comes out of Porcello's.

 

I'm fine with this idea, but replacing Porcello will not be easy with no money to spend.

 

I doubt anyone will give Xander more than $25M. So his delta is perhaps $10-15M, easily covered by Pablo's contract going forward.

 

Bogey will certainly get over 420M a year and probably $25M x 6 or 7 years, especially if he hitslike2018 for another year.

 

Moreland's contract will also expire so there's additional money there.

 

If we sign Macado and move Devers to 1B, I'd trade Moreland.

 

We may have to trade away JBJ's money in order to cover the additional cost of signing Betts.

 

JBJ's arb cost is below what I feel his real value is. I would not trade JBJ.

 

In summary,

 

Let Kimbrel walk. Sign Eovaldi as hedge against both Porcello and Sale leaving year later. Fill the pen with Barnes, Brasier, etc. Take a chance on internal candidates in 2019 and then sign a closer at trade deadline if needed.

Let Porcello walk when his contract expires, re-sign Sale.

Re-Sign Xander.

Trade Bradley and re-sign Betts.

 

No Porcello, Kimbrel and JBJ. Sounds like a steep valley or cliff, to me.

 

$33M Betts

$32M Sale

$31M Price

$24M Bogey

 

$120M for 4 guys at a time when Beni, Devers and others hit their arb years.

 

It's hard to justify half of our payroll budget going to just 4 players, with most of their years falling on the wrong side of 31.

 

Well I only got one thing to say

 

http:///www.youtube.com/watch?v=82zY9oAIu7A

[cp176]

lol. i think i dodged a bullet here.

 

Oh you would have taken it well plus you would have gotten a good laugh also. It was a good rant - lots of good old fashioned colorful language too. lol

 

zing - zing - zing

[harmony]

I think the thing we must realize between the two is that Bogey is looked at as a middle of the order hitter with untapped potential. He’s got a Machado type upside that he just hasn’t tapped yet. I think most people see Didi right now and say that he’s maxed out his potential and he’s about as good as he will get.

 

also, a 5/70 for Didi was after his injury. Prior to the injury, he was in line for a 9 figure guarantee

You are mistaken:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/11/70m-for-gregorius-five-questions-yankees-should-mull-early/

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/12/didi-gregorius-needs-tommy-john-surgery-in-yankees-downer/

 

On an unrelated matter, would the Red Sox be interested in four years of Seattle closer Edwin Diaz, as a replacement for Craig Kimbrel, and/or four or five reasonably priced years of Seattle shortstop Jean Segura as a Dustin Pedroia replacement and a hedge against the potential departure of Xander Bogaerts to free agency following the 2019 season?

 

Whom would the Red Sox be willing to trade for either All Star?

Edited October 16, 2018 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

You are mistaken:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/11/70m-for-gregorius-five-questions-yankees-should-mull-early/

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/12/didi-gregorius-needs-tommy-john-surgery-in-yankees-downer/

 

On an unrelated matters, would the Red Sox be interested in four years of Seattle closer Edwin Diaz, as a replacement for Craig Kimbrel, and/or four or five reasonably priced years of Seattle shortstop Jean Segura, as a Dustin Pedroia replacement and a hedge against the potential departure of Xander Bogaerts to free agency following the 2019 season?

 

Whom would the Red Sox be willing to trade for either All Star?

 

That's a lot of goods. I assume our most desirable properties would be Benintendi and Devers. It can't be done. I think we'll be going the free agency route to replace Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

Well I only got one thing to say

 

http:///www.youtube.com/watch?v=82zY9oAIu7A

 

A great song with a pertinent message.

 

If I had to guess, I think we keep Betts and lose JD.

 

We keep JBJ and lose Bogey.

 

We keep Kimbrel (wrong choice) and lose Sale (right choice).

 

We lose Porcello.

 

We don't stop spending large, but we sign more shorter range contracts.