Is the AL MVP race pretty much over?

[Kimmi]

Who says it is all about WAR? I am realistic - it's a starting point not an end of the discussion. Now WAR is good for isolating individual contribution - and keeps me from falling into the trap of grading teammates.

 

Now I am not penalizing a DH. I am noting that someone who has one job should be really good at it, better than someone who has other jobs. It's the flipside to why nobody cares whether a pitcher can hit or not. So there is a higher bar for a pure DH than a position player - it's self evident to me.

 

Martinez had an extraordinary season - but there were more valuable ones. No shame in that. I'd also point out that this year has a number of guys in the AL who would have been MVP in many, many other seasons. Trout and Betts were just spectacular ...

 

I wasn't trying to imply that you said it was all about WAR. We agree that WAR is a very good starting point. I am a believer and a defender of WAR.

 

I am not arguing that Mookie doesn't deserve the MVP. My point is that with JD, looking at just WAR doesn't do him his proper justice.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think a DH should be penalized for not playing defense. As long as MLB has the DH role, players who are primarily DHs should be judged solely in that capacity. That goes for HOF voting as well.

 

In terms of offense only, Betts still tops JD, so I'm fine with Betts getting the nod over JD. However, if JD had better offensive numbers than Betts, I would have an issue with anyone not voting for JD simply because he doesn't play defense.

 

Since a DH is not helping you at all on the run prevention side, don't they HAVE to be penalized when comparing them to a two-way player?

[S5Dewey]

Since a DH is not helping you at all on the run prevention side, don't they HAVE to be penalized when comparing them to a two-way player?

 

Well... sometimes a player is helping the defense by NOT playing. According to B-R JDM has consistently had a negative dWAR, so doesn't it help the team and his case for MVP if he's not on the field?

[Dojji]

It's not so much penalizing a DH for being a DH, but DHs don't even get a chance to provide an important vector of value in baseball, and that has to be understood when evaluating them for most valuable player.

 

Quite frankly whether a player is one dimensional on the field or one dimensional by design is about the same thing to me. We all know Teddy Williams would have been a DH if his era permitted it, and it probably would have helped his perception because his defensive mediocrity wouldn't have been exposed as often.

 

One dimensional players who only play to their one dimension should NOT be rated the same as players who try to play the whole game and risk their weaknesses being exposed. It's one thing if a guy is only DHing because of roster concerns, and that's probably true for JD in particular, but full time designated hitters are less valuable than two way players, it's a simple fact, and to compensate for this they had best provide a ton of value offensively.

 

Ortiz might well be the first full time DH ever to be inducted into the Hall of Fame because he was legendarily good at it. Pretending that DH is a regular position kind of diminishes players like Big Papi in my opinion.

[Bellhorn04]

Well... sometimes a player is helping the defense by NOT playing. According to B-R JDM has consistently had a negative dWAR, so doesn't it help the team and his case for MVP if he's not on the field?

 

Full marks for effort. But I'm not sure if that helps the cause or not.

 

Pitchers have always been handicapped in the MVP award because they only help on the run prevention side.

 

It's a mismatched competition, really.

 

What chance does the best relief pitcher in baseball have? I know one of them did win it-Willie Hernandez in 1984. But he pitched 140 innings.

[S5Dewey]

Full marks for effort. But I'm not sure if that helps the cause or not.

 

Pitchers have always been handicapped in the MVP award because they only help on the run prevention side.

 

It's a mismatched competition, really.

 

What chance does the best relief pitcher in baseball have? I know one of them did win it-Willie Hernandez in 1984. But he pitched 140 innings.

 

It is a mismatched competition and even more so when you compare the two leagues. IMO a NL pitcher should have a better chance of being an MVP than one in the AL.

[jacksonianmarch]

I hate the "3 finalists" thing as if drawing it out will make us more intrigued. Give Mookie his damn award, he earned it

[Dojji]

You can make these nitpicky little determinations, but ultimately the MVP is an area where perception is 9/10 of the law.

[Bellhorn04]

You can make these nitpicky little determinations, but ultimately the MVP is an area where perception is 9/10 of the law.

 

Not sure what you mean.

[Dojji]

It's going to come down to the emotions and prejudices of the writers, is what I mean. Mookie's gonna win it this year, he's a perfect MVP player whose style appeals to everybody, but that's why Ortiz never won one.

[Bellhorn04]

It's going to come down to the emotions and prejudices of the writers, is what I mean. Mookie's gonna win it this year, he's a perfect MVP player whose style appeals to everybody, but that's why Ortiz never won one.

 

Ortiz had some high finishes, he was 2nd in '05. Personally I understand why it's hard for a DH to win and don't really disagree.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts wins you a few games with his glove and his legs (and base running smarts). He has to be rewarded for that.

[Slasher9]

Well... sometimes a player is helping the defense by NOT playing. According to B-R JDM has consistently had a negative dWAR, so doesn't it help the team and his case for MVP if he's not on the field?

 

lol. good point.

also - on the offense side.....the DH gets to go back in the tunnel and watch video of the pitchers / tendencies / possible RP matchups / work in the cage...you know...instead of actually having to go out into the field and play a defensive position which kind of interrupts the swing preparation....although #9 and Manny were know to phantom swing while standing in LF.....

Betts is the team MVP as well as the league MVP.

 

How many MVP's did David Ortiz win? David Ortiz > JDM.

 

DH will never win an MVP. nor should they. they do deserve to go into the HoF though.

[sk7326]

Well... sometimes a player is helping the defense by NOT playing. According to B-R JDM has consistently had a negative dWAR, so doesn't it help the team and his case for MVP if he's not on the field?

 

If a guy produced all of his WAR against righties ... would you penalize him for being useless against lefties ... of course you would. How the manager used him shielded him from places where he could cause trouble. That the manager has to work around his limitations is not exactly an endorsement Now I do agree that you have to shift the measurement a little for a pure DH ... that WAR won't tell the full story. But a specialist should have a higher bar to clear than a non-specialist.

[sk7326]

lol. good point.

also - on the offense side.....the DH gets to go back in the tunnel and watch video of the pitchers / tendencies / possible RP matchups / work in the cage...you know...instead of actually having to go out into the field and play a defensive position which kind of interrupts the swing preparation....although #9 and Manny were know to phantom swing while standing in LF.....

Betts is the team MVP as well as the league MVP.

 

How many MVP's did David Ortiz win? David Ortiz > JDM.

 

DH will never win an MVP. nor should they. they do deserve to go into the HoF though.

 

If a DH had a Barry Bonds early 2000s sort of year - then yeah could win the MVP. Heck is a DH had Trout's 2018 he would absolutely be in the discussion for MVP. (Trout had 9.2 oWAR, Martinez was 4th)

[Kimmi]

Since a DH is not helping you at all on the run prevention side, don't they HAVE to be penalized when comparing them to a two-way player?

 

To the extent that I think the DH should have better offensive numbers than the rest of the competition.

 

Betts and Trout were both better offensively than JD was, and they played defense on top of it. But if those two were not in the picture, I think my vote would be for JD, even though he's 10th in WAR.

[Kimmi]

Full marks for effort. But I'm not sure if that helps the cause or not.

 

Pitchers have always been handicapped in the MVP award because they only help on the run prevention side.

 

It's a mismatched competition, really.

 

What chance does the best relief pitcher in baseball have? I know one of them did win it-Willie Hernandez in 1984. But he pitched 140 innings.

 

I don't think pitchers should be handicapped either.

[Kimmi]

If a guy produced all of his WAR against righties ... would you penalize him for being useless against lefties ... of course you would. How the manager used him shielded him from places where he could cause trouble. That the manager has to work around his limitations is not exactly an endorsement Now I do agree that you have to shift the measurement a little for a pure DH ... that WAR won't tell the full story. But a specialist should have a higher bar to clear than a non-specialist.

 

I would not penalize him if his production against righties was good enough to beat the production of other players with more balanced splits.

[sk7326]

I would not penalize him if his production against righties was good enough to beat the production of other players with more balanced splits.

 

If the manager is shielding him from opportunities to provide negative value - that should be a consideration.

[Kimmi]

If the manager is shielding him from opportunities to provide negative value - that should be a consideration.

 

I'm not sure that I agree, but I can understand your view on this more than with the DH. With the DH, it's not necessarily the player being shielded from anything, but rather that the DH is a position that needs to be filled by someone.

[sk7326]

I'm not sure that I agree, but I can understand your view on this more than with the DH. With the DH, it's not necessarily the player being shielded from anything, but rather that the DH is a position that needs to be filled by someone.

 

Right - I am not necessarily penalizing a DH for usage. For a DH I just go to a higher offensive bar - because a specialist should be expected to do more.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure that I agree, but I can understand your view on this more than with the DH. With the DH, it's not necessarily the player being shielded from anything, but rather that the DH is a position that needs to be filled by someone.

 

But in the specific case of JDM, he's an ideal candidate for DH, a great hitter who provides no value on the run prevention side. I would argue that he was indeed 'shielded' from playing the outfield.

[Dojji]

The fundamental question to me is, is his value decreased or increased by neutralizing the dWAR factor.

 

In other words, is the DH position mitigating negative dWAR or suppressing positive dWAR and usually, it's the former.

[Bellhorn04]

The fundamental question to me is, is his value decreased or increased by neutralizing the dWAR factor.

 

In other words, is the DH position mitigating negative dWAR or suppressing positive dWAR and usually, it's the former.

 

Exactly right.

 

And on defense JD was negative 14.7 runs. The more he played defense, the lower his WAR would have been.

[Kimmi]

But in the specific case of JDM, he's an ideal candidate for DH, a great hitter who provides no value on the run prevention side. I would argue that he was indeed 'shielded' from playing the outfield.

 

I don't think that it was so much that he was shielded as it was that we had such great outfield defensive players.

[Kimmi]

The fundamental question to me is, is his value decreased or increased by neutralizing the dWAR factor.

 

In other words, is the DH position mitigating negative dWAR or suppressing positive dWAR and usually, it's the former.

 

JD was able to accumulate 5.9 WAR despite the negative dWAR. In other words, he was that good at what he did offensively. As I said earlier, Mookie and Trout were in a class above the rest, but if those two were not in the picture, my vote would be for JD. He was signed for his offense, and his offense was better than the rest of the WAR leaders beyond Mookie and Trout.

[sk7326]

JD was able to accumulate 5.9 WAR despite the negative dWAR. In other words, he was that good at what he did offensively. As I said earlier, Mookie and Trout were in a class above the rest, but if those two were not in the picture, my vote would be for JD. He was signed for his offense, and his offense was better than the rest of the WAR leaders beyond Mookie and Trout.

 

Bregman was wayyyy up there

[Bellhorn04]

JD was able to accumulate 5.9 WAR despite the negative dWAR. In other words, he was that good at what he did offensively. As I said earlier, Mookie and Trout were in a class above the rest, but if those two were not in the picture, my vote would be for JD. He was signed for his offense, and his offense was better than the rest of the WAR leaders beyond Mookie and Trout.

 

JD had a great offensive season. But I'm puzzled why you would choose him over other players that had higher WAR, like Bregman as sk7326 mentioned, who had a 7.6 to JD's 5.9. It seems like you're giving more weight to run production.

[notin]

JD had a great offensive season. But I'm puzzled why you would choose him over other players that had higher WAR, like Bregman as sk7326 mentioned, who had a 7.6 to JD's 5.9. It seems like you're giving more weight to run production.

 

That is historically how the award has gone...

[Bellhorn04]

That is historically how the award has gone...

 

Giving more weight to run production you mean.