Wright Conundrum

[dgalehouse]

Kelly has fallen out of favor with many , but he has been with the team all year and has had some excellent moments. My guess is that he will make the cut.

[moonslav59]

Kelly has fallen out of favor with many , but he has been with the team all year and has had some excellent moments. My guess is that he will make the cut.

 

You and notin are probably right.

 

I'd take Workman or Poyner over him, but I think Cora sticks with Kelly.

[Maxbialystock]

Kelly looked awful again last night--no command of his pitches. I think his best modus operandi is to go mostly with breaking stuff--he has a curve, slider, and changeup, all pretty decent--and an occasional fastball. Last night his first pitch was a fastball down the middle, hit squarely for a clean single. Then he tried hitting the corners with his fastball and breaking stuff and walked guys, plus I think he got an out.

 

Interestingly, the Sox currently have 8 starters: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright. Of those 8, the four with the most quality starts are Price, 18, Sale, 17, Porcello, 16, and ERod, 7.

 

So, as much as I like my idea of starting Wright 3 times for, say, 2 innings each time, it also occurs to me that Cora could simply go into the ALDS with 4 short relievers--Kimbrel, Brasier, Barnes, and one other--and 3 long relievers--Wright, Eovaldi or ERod, and Velazquez or Johnson. He can still start those long relievers for 2 or more innings, or he can use them in the traditional way.

 

It appears Cora is currently conducting a mini-camp to see who can pitch in what situation. Eovaldi just might get the 4th starter slot over ERod, which would give Cora two lefty starters and two righty starters.

Edited September 25, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi will likely get a starter spot if the Yanks are the opponent faced

[notin]

Eovaldi will likely get a starter spot if the Yanks are the opponent faced

 

That seems to be the early indication.

 

He's 1-1 with a 2.11ERA and a 0.797WHIP against them this year, albeit in 3 starts and 21.1 IP. Rodriguez has been far less effective...

[Maxbialystock]

Eovaldi will likely get a starter spot if the Yanks are the opponent faced

 

I'm thinking the same thing. I think the Yankees had like 8 righty bats and no bad ones (Sanchez came the closest to bad) against Price last week when they got 6 runs off him in 5.1. They also hit ERod and couldn't get to Eovaldi who went 6 scoreless in game 1 before Workman and Brasier coughed up 3.

[Maxbialystock]

You and notin are probably right.

 

I'd take Workman or Poyner over him, but I think Cora sticks with Kelly.

 

Really? Why would Cora keep Kelly when he has the 12th best WAR on the Sox pitching staff and an ERA of 10.29 in September. Kelly is an interesting study in relievers this season. He had three great months--April, May, and August--and three horrible ones--June, July, and September.

[oldtimer]

You and notin are probably right.

 

I'd take Workman or Poyner over him, but I think Cora sticks with Kelly.

 

I disagree but of course we will see in just a few short days.

[notin]

Really? Why would Cora keep Kelly when he has the 12th best WAR on the Sox pitching staff and an ERA of 10.29 in September. Kelly is an interesting study in relievers this season. He had three great months--April, May, and August--and three horrible ones--June, July, and September.

 

Primarily because he might be one of the top 7 options. Over the full season, Kelly has the third best fWAR among Sox relievers, behind only Kimbrel and Barnes.

 

I do think Kelly and Poyner make the post-season roster. If you like using fWAR, Workman is more of a question mark, as he falls behind Hembree, Johnson, Marcus Walden, and Carson Smith in that category and is tied with Pomeranz...

[sk7326]

That seems to be the early indication.

 

He's 1-1 with a 2.11ERA and a 0.797WHIP against them this year, albeit in 3 starts and 21.1 IP. Rodriguez has been far less effective...

 

The big reason the Red Sox wanted Eovaldi (or someone like him) is that the Astros, Guardians and Yankees have all murdered left-handed pitching all season. While this is NOT a reason to, say, sit Chris Sale, it makes sense to get another righty starter for a potential Game 3/4.

[moonslav59]

Really? Why would Cora keep Kelly when he has the 12th best WAR on the Sox pitching staff and an ERA of 10.29 in September. Kelly is an interesting study in relievers this season. He had three great months--April, May, and August--and three horrible ones--June, July, and September.

 

I hope Cora leaves Kelly off the roster.

 

I'm not sure he will.

[notin]

I hope Cora leaves Kelly off the roster.

 

I'm not sure he will.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if both Kelly and Hembree made it. It's not like the other options are all that dazzling, and these are two guys he used all year long...

[dannycater]

Kelly has become unreliable. Not much you can do. One year the Sox left Wakefield off the playoff roster for being less effective. It happens.

[dannycater]

Hembree, same thing. If you are not doing the job consistently AND THERE ARE other options, you can't do the he did it for the first 100 games thing. The performance over the last 15 appearances has to come in play.

[Jack Flap]

"The Wright Conundrum" sounds like an installment in the Bourne franchise.

[notin]

Hembree, same thing. If you are not doing the job consistently AND THERE ARE other options, you can't do the he did it for the first 100 games thing. The performance over the last 15 appearances has to come in play.

 

The problem with simply deciding Hembree and Kelly have been too ineffective lately (which they have) and therefore should be dropped from the post-season roster still eaves the question - for who? and are all these sample sizes just too small to be representative?

 

It's safe to assume Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier and ERod are going to the post-season bullpen. Wright probably is, too.

 

That leaves a maximum of three spots from Kelly, Hembree, Workman, Velasquez, Poyner, Johnson, Scott, Thornburg, Cuevas and Pomeranz. Four if they decide not to take ERod. Right off the bat, I would say Thornburg and Pomeranz have struggled to stay healthy and can be left off from further consideration, leaving 8 pitchers for 3 or 4 spots.

 

Of these pitchers, only Poyner and Cuevas have thrown more than 7IP this month.

 

Should the Sox leave Kelly and Hembree off the post-season roster because Cuevas looked better in the 11 IP he has thrown, half of which came in one outing?

 

A mere 7IP ago, Kelly had an ungodly August with a 1.42 ERA/1.90 FIP. Is that no longer relevant because of those seven innings since? (Overall, Kelly has had better second half than Barnes has had. Is Barnes on he bubble?)

 

I really don't think the Sox should play "hot hand" with these small sample sizes and hope it continues for another month. At some point, they are going to need to bring some of the pitchers that got them where they are in the first place...

Edited September 26, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

Hembree, same thing. If you are not doing the job consistently AND THERE ARE other options, you can't do the he did it for the first 100 games thing. The performance over the last 15 appearances has to come in play.

 

It should and does, but it's not everything either.

 

Poyner has just 35 PAs against in the whole second half. Cuevas has 68, and most of them came in one game.

[Maxbialystock]

Postseason bulletin. Bob Melvin of the A's has broken ranks with the other successful postseason managers and basically taken leave of his senses. In the win or go home wild card game tonight vs. the vaunted Yankees lineup, he ain't going with a starter, just a bunch of relievers.

 

For all you who are quite confident Cora should never, never, never start a reliever, you better hope the Yankees win big tonight even though most of you, like me, are rooting for the A's.

[mvp 78]

Postseason bulletin. Bob Melvin of the A's has broken ranks with the other successful postseason managers and basically taken leave of his senses. In the win or go home wild card game tonight vs. the vaunted Yankees lineup, he ain't going with a starter, just a bunch of relievers.

 

For all you who are quite confident Cora should never, never, never start a reliever, you better hope the Yankees win big tonight even though most of you, like me, are rooting for the A's.

 

3rd ranked ERA bullpen.

17th ranked ERA starters.

[moonslav59]

3rd ranked ERA bullpen.

17th ranked ERA starters.

 

This won't be the first time they've done this, unlike the Sox ( for real).

[mvp 78]

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3548&position=P

 

This is the guy they are going with to start the game. It'd be like the Sox starting Heath Hembree.

 

No matter what, this is the conclusion the A's fans deserve.

[Maxbialystock]

3rd ranked ERA bullpen.

17th ranked ERA starters.

 

Meh. When I'm on my hobby horse, stats mean nothing to me. Those are pretty good though.

 

I might argue that I only want Wright to start and go 1 or 2 innings, and I will stack him up against the entire Oakland bullpen for doing that particular job. In fact, the reason I want to use Wright so much is precisely because our bullpen is so weak and because--weak-kneed fan that I am--I also nervous about the rotation and especially Sale,

 

Anyway, thanks to you and moonslav for jumping on this. I'm sincerely grateful.

[Maxbialystock]

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3548&position=P

 

This is the guy they are going with to start the game. It'd be like the Sox starting Heath Hembree.

 

No matter what, this is the conclusion the A's fans deserve.

 

Could be. I do remember the movie Moneyball. At the end of it. the vaunted A's who had won 20 straight lost to the Twins in the ALDS, 3-2. The next year they lost to the Sox, 3-2.

[mvp 78]

Meh. When I'm on my hobby horse, stats mean nothing to me. Those are pretty good though.

 

I might argue that I only want Wright to start and go 1 or 2 innings, and I will stack him up against the entire Oakland bullpen for doing that particular job. In fact, the reason I want to use Wright so much is precisely because our bullpen is so weak and because--weak-kneed fan that I am--I also nervous about the rotation and especially Sale,

 

Anyway, thanks to you and moonslav for jumping on this. I'm sincerely grateful.

 

I think Wright probably has more value as a change of pace arm in the pen, but him starting wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I'm not sure his arm is stretched out though. If he was 100% Wright, a good idea would be to start him and see how long he could go. If it's just a few innings, no big deal. However, some days his stuff is just unhittable and the Sox could snatch a quick win if that happened.

[OH FOY]

Games are constant adjustment from here on out, because of score, situations and match-ups, nothing is set once the game begins. It always changes, in the Play-offs. Nothing should be set if your a good Manager. The object is to win anyway, with anybody you need to win that day. One extra inning game might need game 3 starter, might need another. Play-off games are not a script. Expect the unexpected. Unless your up 10-0 in the 7th. haha Edited October 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Maxbialystock]

I think Wright probably has more value as a change of pace arm in the pen, but him starting wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I'm not sure his arm is stretched out though. If he was 100% Wright, a good idea would be to start him and see how long he could go. If it's just a few innings, no big deal. However, some days his stuff is just unhittable and the Sox could snatch a quick win if that happened.

 

I only want Wright to do 2 innings on Friday, the first 2. That should be enough to set up Sale for success. If it works on Friday, maybe do it again on Monday.

 

As I Sox fan since 1949, I learned long ago it's never too soon to panic.

[vegasbob]

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3548&position=P

 

This is the guy they are going with to start the game. It'd be like the Sox starting Heath Hembree.

 

No matter what, this is the conclusion the A's fans deserve.

 

You have to like his 2018 AAA numbers though

[moonslav59]

I only want Wright to do 2 innings on Friday, the first 2. That should be enough to set up Sale for success. If it works on Friday, maybe do it again on Monday.

 

As I Sox fan since 1949, I learned long ago it's never too soon to panic.

 

You really want to try something this radical, for the first time, in game one of the playoffs?

 

I'm not against the idea, in theory, but the timing is about as bad as it gets.

[Maxbialystock]

You really want to try something this radical, for the first time, in game one of the playoffs?

 

I'm not against the idea, in theory, but the timing is about as bad as it gets.

 

You're darn right I do. I know something about strategy, and this is the way Napoleon took Moscow and later Hitler did the same thing after he bombed Pearl Harbor. You have to be bold. Never take counsel of your fears. Listen to George C. Scott.

[moonslav59]

You're darn right I do. I know something about strategy, and this is the way Napoleon took Moscow and later Hitler did the same thing after he bombed Pearl Harbor. You have to be bold. Never take counsel of your fears. Listen to George C. Scott.

 

You crack me up!