Wright Conundrum

[Maxbialystock]

First the non-conundrum. Right now I think Wright is close to the most valuable pitcher on the team. Not the best--that's Sale. But Wright can start and has, can close, and has, and can do long relief. And right now that knuckler is really working.

 

The first conundrum is whether to make him a starter or reliever in the post season. I think that one's pretty easy--leave him in the bullpen because he can have an effect on more games and because the bullpen right now is in disarray.

 

The second conundrum is how to use him as a reliever. Forget closing--let Kimbrel do that. But long relief could be crucial because, in addition to a weak bullpen, we don't have starters who consistently go beyond 6 innings. In fact, falling short of 6 is almost the standard. Enter Wright. In a five game series he could do that twice, maybe 3 times,which could be huge.

 

But the Rays manager has shown how effective a reliever can be starting a game and going 1 or 2 or 3 innings. Better still, Wright would be perfect in that role because his knuckler messes up the other team's hitters' timing. So what if Wright "starts" the 1st, 3d, and 5th games of the ALDS and goes maybe 2 innings in each? Now the starter only has to go 6 innings--made easier by following Wright--and leave the 9th inning for Kimbrel.

[Slasher9]

No. We can’t start with the Rays philosophy in the postseason. I love how Wright was used last night (although in the postseason I would have expected him to come into the game after the McCutchen walk). I also like having the knuckler in between two normal pictures during the game. Completely throws off the hitters timing in my opinion and it’s a good plan Edited September 22, 2018 by Slasher9

[sk7326]

For me it's pretty easy. You have Wright on the roster clearly. Given that none of the starters are obvious guarantees to get through 6 - and even so in the postseason you're going to have a quick hook anyway - that having a real multi-inning bridge is good. Now being a knuckler, you might just have to hope for a hot streak - but that's what winning a World Series is.

[oldtimer]

For me it's pretty easy. You have Wright on the roster clearly. Given that none of the starters are obvious guarantees to get through 6 - and even so in the postseason you're going to have a quick hook anyway - that having a real multi-inning bridge is good. Now being a knuckler, you might just have to hope for a hot streak - but that's what winning a World Series is.

 

I don't like the idea of putting Wright in to a game with opponents in scoring position. Passed balls are at a high risk. Better to bring him in to a clean inning where they can a passed ball. Coming in at the 5th or 6th inning, he could bridge to or through the 7th. With Barnes, Brasier and Kimbrel available, we should be able to handle two inn ings late.

[moonslav59]

I like any idea that uses Wright more, but I would never try the Rays model at this point in the season or in the playoffs.

 

I'd try to use him in middle relief to lessen the amount of set-up men we need to use.

 

Bridge us to Kimbrel and cut out the (other) middle men.

 

Game 1: Sale 6, Wright 2-3, Kimbrel 0-1

Game 2: Price 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Day Off

Game 3: Porcello 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Game 4: Eovaldi 5, Wright 3-4, Kimbrel 0-1

Game Off

Game 5: Sale 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

 

[Spudboy]

I'm with Slasher on this one.

[sk7326]

the Rays model is very possible if you get to an elimination game - but not until then

[Dojji]

No need to reinvent the wheel. We have a solid knuckleballer to play the long relief/spot starter role. It's a good thing. Next year he will once again compete for the rotation. He might start in the postseason if there's an injury. For now he's going into October as a member of the bullpen in the long relief role.

[Kimmi]

No. We can’t start with the Rays philosophy in the postseason. I love how Wright was used last night (although in the postseason I would have expected him to come into the game after the McCutchen walk). I also like having the knuckler in between two normal pictures during the game. Completely throws off the hitters timing in my opinion and it’s a good plan

 

I like how Wright was used in that game as well. It can be nerve wracking, but it can also be very efficient. I would only bring him into the game in a clean inning though.

[Maxbialystock]

I like any idea that uses Wright more, but I would never try the Rays model at this point in the season or in the playoffs.

 

I'd try to use him in middle relief to lessen the amount of set-up men we need to use.

 

Bridge us to Kimbrel and cut out the (other) middle men.

 

Game 1: Sale 6, Wright 2-3, Kimbrel 0-1

Game 2: Price 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Day Off

Game 3: Porcello 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Game 4: Eovaldi 5, Wright 3-4, Kimbrel 0-1

Game Off

Game 5: Sale 7, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

 

 

Well, the returns are in. My third option of starting Wright in 3 games has been universally condemned.

 

I like your response the best, because, unlike the glittering generalities to condemn my heresy, you've provided some specifics. In fact, some pretty good specifics. You've got the same first three starters I--and most everyone else--would have. I might start ERod 4th, but think Eovaldi could do as well and maybe better. Best of all, you only use three other relievers besides Wright--Kimbrel, Brasier, and Barnes. Spot on. Oh, and you send Wright out there twice--game 1 and game 4--to long relieve Sale and Eovaldi. Pretty neat. Your approach beyond question optimizes the few strengths in an otherwise weak bullpen.

 

But here's the problem. To make that work you have to assume your top three starters, who will start 4 of the 5 (if the ALDS goes to that) games, can go 6, 7, 7, and 7 innings against 1 of the top 5 run-producing lineups in MLB. That's right: the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, and A's are all in the top 5 out of 30 MLB teams.

 

I did a quick check and found that those three--Sale, Price, and Porcello--made 19 starts this year against those 4 teams and got to 7 innings 6 times. On top of that all three pitched for the Sox in the ALDS last year and two of them in the ALDS the year before. How did those two series go?

 

And that leads me to my next point. I completely agree having Wright start the 1st, 3d, and 5th games in the ALDS is a radical idea. And, frankly, I don't expect Cora to do that at this late date. He's going to agree with everyone else on this thread and use Wright in the traditional role of long reliever.

 

Which leads to my final point. This radical, outlandish idea is now on a thread. If the Sox take the ALDS--just that, nothing more--I will be the first one on this thread to say, very happily, I was wrong. But . . .

Edited September 22, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Dojji]

Not "condemned." Simply not necessary. Overcomplicated plans are the opposite of what brings victory in the playoffs. Keep it simple and build in redundancy. That way rather than trying to make the entire playoffs one great big set piece battle, you're set up to improvise as the situation changes. It's a higher level of strategy that requires a good manager to pull it off, but fortunately for us, we have one.

 

There's every chance that Wright could wind up making a very solid contribution in the 2004 Bronson Arroyo role. But scripting his appearances reduces your flexibility and playoff viability for no good reason.

[moonslav59]

Well, the returns are in. My third option of starting Wright in 3 games has been universally condemned.

 

I like your response the best, because, unlike the glittering generalities to condemn my heresy, you've provided some specifics. In fact, some pretty good specifics. You've got the same first three starters I--and most everyone else--would have. I might start ERod 4th, but think Eovaldi could do as well and maybe better. Best of all, you only use three other relievers besides Wright--Kimbrel, Brasier, and Barnes. Spot on. Oh, and you send Wright out there twice--game 1 and game 4--to long relieve Sale and Eovaldi. Pretty neat. Your approach beyond question optimizes the few strengths in an otherwise weak bullpen.

 

But here's the problem. To make that work you have to assume your top three starters, who will start 4 of the 5 (if the ALDS goes to that) games, can go 6, 7, 7, and 7 innings against 1 of the top 5 run-producing lineups in MLB. That's right: the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, and A's are all in the top 5 out of 30 MLB teams.

 

I did a quick check and found that those three--Sale, Price, and Porcello--made 19 starts this year against those 4 teams and got to 7 innings 6 times. On top of that all three pitched for the Sox in the ALDS last year and two of them in the ALDS the year before. How did those two series go?

 

And that leads me to my next point. I completely agree having Wright start the 1st, 3d, and 5th games in the ALDS is a radical idea. And, frankly, I don't expect Cora to do that at this late date. He's going to agree with everyone else on this thread and use Wright in the traditional role of long reliever.

 

Which leads to my final point. This radical, outlandish idea is now on a thread. If the Sox take the ALDS--just that, nothing more--I will be the first one on this thread to say, very happily, I was wrong. But . . .

 

I don't even have Barnes listed. My chart was for optimal results. Of course, nothing ever works as planned, and that is where Barnes could eat an inning here or there, of we could use ERod (or Eovaldi if ERod starts game 4) for 2-3 innings. Something like this...

 

Game 1: Sale 6, Wright 2-3, Kimbrel 0-1

Game 2: Price 6, ERod 2-3 (Brasier/Barnes 1), Kimbrel 1

Day Off

Game 3: Porcello 6, Barnes 1, Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

Game 4: Eovaldi 5, Wright 3-4, Kimbrel 0-1

Game Off

Game 5: Sale 6, ERod 2-3, Barnes/Brasier 1, Kimbrel 1

 

This covers more bad contingencies.

 

On longer IP by our starters in the ALDS, I look at it this way, Cora has pulled our starters early during the regular season, because he wanted to keep them fresh and healthy. Once you reach the playoffs, the "long strategy" pretty much goes out the window. Plus, we will have 5 days off before our first playoff game. Everybody will be on extended rest mode by game 1 or 2 and even game 3 and 4 for our SP'ers.

 

I'm hopeful we can get 7 IP much more than the 6 out of 19 rate you cited.

 

Edited September 22, 2018 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Not "condemned." Simply not necessary. Overcomplicated plans are the opposite of what brings victory in the playoffs. Keep it simple and build in redundancy. That way rather than trying to make the entire playoffs one great big set piece battle, you're set up to improvise as the situation changes. It's a higher level of strategy that requires a good manager to pull it off, but fortunately for us, we have one.

 

There's every chance that Wright could wind up making a very solid contribution in the 2004 Bronson Arroyo role. But scripting his appearances reduces your flexibility and playoff viability for no good reason.

 

Not necessary? You like our bullpen? You are confident our top three starters are good for 7 innings per game?

 

I do like your term scripting, however. You're absolutely right. I said start Wright 3 times, which would keep him from relieving.

 

However--

 

Nothing prevents Cora from doing it in the first game as a test. If it works, he can try it again. If not, not.

 

In 2016 Porcello and Price started the first two ALDS games against the Guardians and both got blown away.

 

Last year Sale started the first ALDS game and got blown away.

 

So my question is, why are you so confident that this year is different and that Sale and Price and Porcello are going to be lights out in the first three games this year?

 

And what the heck do you mean by overcomplicated? We've seen this tactic work and work well for the Rays. It is in fact dead simple. Just send Wright out for the first two innings instead of the 7th and 8th innings.

[moonslav59]

I said start Wright 3 times, which would keep him from relieving.

 

We could use Wright for 2 IP in game 1, 3 & 5 or maybe 3-4 IP in 2 games (game 1 or 2 and game 4 or 5).

 

This would save us from having to use our iffy set-up guys too often.

[moonslav59]

So my question is, why are you so confident that this year is different and that Sale and Price and Porcello are going to be lights out in the first three games this year?

 

We can't know for sure, but we really don't have much hope without our starters giving us better than recent playoff years. We can try to mitigate the risk by stocking our pen with long men and keeping Hembree and Kelly off the ALDS roster, but nothing is guaranteed. Nobody's plan is fool proof.

 

[Dojji]

Not necessary? You like our bullpen?

 

Yes. Our bullpen is not excellent, but it is definitely competitive.

 

It's the weakest part of a very strong team, that's not the same thing as saying that the bullpen is weak.

 

Our bullpen is the only part of the team that is not elite, but it's still well above average taken as a whole, we have an excellent closer, and we're going to be able to cherry-pick the best of a lot of the options we've winnowed through of the year and ought to be able to assemble a very strong relief squad for the playoffs.

 

If our top 4 options out of the bullpen this year are Vazquez, Brasier, Barnes and Kimbrel, I'll stack that against most of the other bullpens in the playoffs and expect a fair fight. If our bats do their job I'm not all that worried about the 'pen.

[moonslav59]

Yes. Our bullpen is not excellent, but it is definitely competitive.

 

It's the weakest part of a very strong team, that's not the same thing as saying that the bullpen is weak.

 

Our bullpen is the only part of the team that is not elite, but it's still well above average taken as a whole, we have an excellent closer, and we're going to be able to cherry-pick the best of a lot of the options we've winnowed through of the year and ought to be able to assemble a very strong relief squad for the playoffs.

 

If our top 4 options out of the bullpen this year are Vazquez, Brasier, Barnes and Kimbrel, I'll stack that against most of the other bullpens in the playoffs and expect a fair fight. If our bats do their job I'm not all that worried about the 'pen.

 

I assume you mean Velazquez not Vazquez, and Wright has to be in our top 4 RP'ers and not Velazquez.

 

While I agree our pen is not weak compared to the rest of the league, and I'll take Kimbrel against any other closer in MLB, our next 3 are clearly inferior to other playoffs teams.

ERA/WHIP

BOS

2.70/1.24 Wright

3.34/1.20 Barnes

1.74/0.80 Brasier (31 IP)

 

NYY

2.93/0.98 Robertson

2.69/1.04 Betances

2.64/1.06 Green

plus

3.27/1.14 Britton

3.02/1.01 Holder

 

HOU

2.12/0.91 McHugh

2.86/0.86 J Smith

3.13/1.21 Peacock

plus

2.00/1.11 Sipp

3.64/1.10 Harris

(+Giles & Devenski)

 

CLE

0.90/0.63 O Perez

3.38/1.29 Miller

2.13/1.07 B Hand

(+Otero, McAllister, Ramirez& Olsen)

[oldtimer]

I assume you mean Velazquez not Vazquez, and Wright has to be in our top 4 RP'ers and not Velazquez.

 

While I agree our pen is not weak compared to the rest of the league, and I'll take Kimbrel against any other closer in MLB, our next 3 are clearly inferior to other playoffs teams.

ERA/WHIP

BOS

2.70/1.24 Wright

3.34/1.20 Barnes

1.74/0.80 Brasier (31 IP)

 

NYY

2.93/0.98 Robertson

2.69/1.04 Betances

2.64/1.06 Green

plus

3.27/1.14 Britton

3.02/1.01 Holder

 

HOU

2.12/0.91 McHugh

2.86/0.86 J Smith

3.13/1.21 Peacock

plus

2.00/1.11 Sipp

3.64/1.10 Harris

(+Giles & Devenski)

 

CLE

0.90/0.63 O Perez

3.38/1.29 Miller

2.13/1.07 B Hand

(+Otero, McAllister, Ramirez& Olsen)

 

We could wind up facing Oakland.

[Dojji]

I assume you mean Velazquez not Vazquez, and Wright has to be in our top 4 RP'ers and not Velazquez.

 

While I agree our pen is not weak compared to the rest of the league, and I'll take Kimbrel against any other closer in MLB, our next 3 are clearly inferior to other playoffs teams.

ERA/WHIP

BOS

2.70/1.24 Wright

3.34/1.20 Barnes

1.74/0.80 Brasier (31 IP)

 

NYY

2.93/0.98 Robertson

2.69/1.04 Betances

2.64/1.06 Green

plus

3.27/1.14 Britton

3.02/1.01 Holder

 

HOU

2.12/0.91 McHugh

2.86/0.86 J Smith

3.13/1.21 Peacock

plus

2.00/1.11 Sipp

3.64/1.10 Harris

(+Giles & Devenski)

 

CLE

0.90/0.63 O Perez

3.38/1.29 Miller

2.13/1.07 B Hand

(+Otero, McAllister, Ramirez& Olsen)

 

Like I said. Not excellent, but competitive. We'll face bullpens that are better than ours. That's why it's important for our supremely potent offense to get to the starters early and often.

 

That said one Steven Wright more or less isn't going to change this dynamic very much. We're going to have to rely on this pen to see us through with only a very limited ability to make personnel adjustments.

 

We might as well get used to the idea of getting behind these guys because whining about them isn't productive.

[moonslav59]

We could wind up facing Oakland.

 

OAK (after Treinen)

3.13/1.02 Petit

3.00/1.17 Trivino

3.03/1.21 Buchter

3.09/1.27 Bassit

[moonslav59]

Like I said. Not excellent, but competitive. We'll face bullpens that are better than ours. That's why it's important for our supremely potent offense to get to the starters early and often.

 

That said one Steven Wright more or less isn't going to change this dynamic very much. We're going to have to rely on this pen to see us through with only a very limited ability to make personnel adjustments.

 

We might as well get used to the idea of getting behind these guys because whining about them isn't productive.

 

I'm hopeful Wright can go 2-4 IP 2-3 times in a 5 game series and help us avoid using our crappy short men all that much.

[Dojji]

I'm hopeful Wright can go 2-4 IP 2-3 times in a 5 game series and help us avoid using our crappy short men all that much.

 

You're talking about a pitcher who hasn't stayed healthy through ordinary use for a full season since he came to Boston. Heaping an extraordinary workload on a body that struggles with a regular workload sounds to me like the exact opposite of smart.

 

Not all knuckleballers can pitch forever. Wright isn't Wakefield. He throws a lot harder than Wake did for one thing, and that comes at a cost. Wright uses his fastball extensively and it's not that much slower than a conventional pitcher's.

 

That means that knuckleball aslde, you should think of Wright more like a conventional pitcher and much less like a Niekroballer like Wakefield.

 

Wright is not a pure knuckleballer, more of a hybrid. If you try to abuse a fastball-knukcleball pitcher as if he was a purebred knuckleball pitcher, I doubt this will end well.

 

If we abuse Wright's arm, there'll be the devil to pay. Yeah it's great when athletes get worked like rented mules, then rise above their own level and pitch tons of top quality innings in the playoffs, but go ahead and track the future performances of those guys, not a lot of them go on to have great follow-on campaigns. And sometimes it ends their careers, like it more or less did with Keith Foulke, who we abused the HELL out of in 2004 and he was never the same since.

 

That being the case, risking one of our few homegrown cost-controlled starting pitchers in such a way is utter folly.

 

If we need multiple innings I would rather share that burden between Wright, Workman and Velazquez than overburden one arm that hasn't stood up to burdens well in the past.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

You're talking about a pitcher who hasn't stayed healthy through ordinary use for a full season since he came to Boston. Heaping an extraordinary workload on a body that struggles with a regular workload sounds to me like the exact opposite of smart.

 

Not all knuckleballers can pitch forever. Wright isn't Wakefield. He throws a lot harder than Wake did for one thing, and that comes at a cost. Wright uses his fastball extensively and it's not that much slower than a conventional pitcher's.

 

That means that knuckleball aslde, you should think of Wright more like a conventional pitcher and much less like a Niekroballer like Wakefield.

 

Wright is not a pure knuckleballer, more of a hybrid. If you try to abuse a fastball-knukcleball pitcher as if he was a purebred knuckleball pitcher, I doubt this will end well.

 

If we abuse Wright's arm, there'll be the devil to pay. Yeah it's great when athletes get worked like rented mules, then rise above their own level and pitch tons of top quality innings in the playoffs, but go ahead and track the future performances of those guys, not a lot of them go on to have great follow-on campaigns. And sometimes it ends their careers, like it more or less did with Keith Foulke, who we abused the HELL out of in 2004 and he was never the same since.

 

That being the case, risking one of our few homegrown cost-controlled starting pitchers in such a way is utter folly.

 

If we need multiple innings I would rather share that burden between Wright, Workman and Velazquez than overburden one arm that hasn't stood up to burdens well in the past.

 

Wright has not had throwing arm issues much in his career.

 

I don't think this is overwork:

 

5 days off

game 1: 2 IP

game 2: 0

off day

game 3: 2 IP

game 4: 0

off day

game 5; 2 IP

 

or

5 days off

game 1: 3 IP

game 2: 0

off day

game 3: 0

game 4: 0 or 3 IP

off day

game 4: 3 or 0 IP

[Bellhorn04]

Wright has not had throwing arm issues much in his career.

 

I don't think this is overwork:

 

5 days off

game 1: 2 IP

game 2: 0

off day

game 3: 2 IP

game 4: 0

off day

game 5; 2 IP

 

or

5 days off

game 1: 3 IP

game 2: 0

off day

game 3: 0

game 4: 0 or 3 IP

off day

game 4: 3 or 0 IP

 

That seems OK. Your original statement of 2-4 innings 2-3 times included a scenario of using him for 4 innings 3 times.

[Dojji]

Wright has not had throwing arm issues much in his career.

 

I don't think this is overwork:

 

5 days off

game 1: 2 IP

game 2: 0

off day

game 3: 2 IP

game 4: 0

off day

game 5; 2 IP

 

or

5 days off

game 1: 3 IP

game 2: 0

off day

game 3: 0

game 4: 0 or 3 IP

off day

game 4: 3 or 0 IP

 

All forms of wear and tear count. Wright's knee was surgically repaired last year. As we found out this year with Eddie, knees matter.

 

If he's in the bullpen, I think it makes sense to use him in inning-plus relief, but I think it's going to be more important to have Wright ready to go in the Bronson Arroyo role, able to come in and replace a starter at a moment's notice, than it is to try to abuse his mystical knuckleball powers over the course of a series.

 

Besides, Wright is not one of my top 3 relief options, those honors go to Kimbrel, Brazier and Workman. Workman can go 1+ innings but has also evolved into the guy you bring in to strand baserunners, and he's been very good at it this year. Workman to finish the inning and maybe pitch another one, then turn a clean inning over to Wright or Velazquez, sounds like a strategy that works.

 

As for bringing Wright into high leverage innings... eh. He's good, but the knuckleball can be a very inconsistent pitch to rely on in high leverage situations so I'd rather keep Wright in reserve than try to plot out a baseball playoff series as if it was a dance routine..

Edited September 23, 2018 by Dojji

[OH FOY]

With Wright you have to have CV on Play-off roster, he handles him the best behind the plate. Catcher just as important when thinking about Wright.

Remember when Wright pitched in Houston a couple of years back, Lavarnway was here then, had a nightmare game there. That ball was moving like crazy there.

Edited September 23, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Dojji]

Leon handles Wright just fine, but I think Vazquez cracks the playoff roster anyway. Swihart didn't do a good enough job swinging the bat this year to justify a place on the playoff roster over our 2 defensive specialists. With no real offensive standouts, picking up the 2 best gloves makes sense to me.

[OH FOY]

You don't think Swihart makes the Roster? I do, adds too much versatility in Play-off games.

[Dojji]

I'll be honest, I'd rather have another reliever. Holt and Nunez will be on the roster to cover reserve duties, I honestly don't think we need a third bench utility guy as much as we need specifically Brandon Workman (who I think is the bubble guy right now)

 

You're going to have a 4 man bench. Which of Moreland, Holt, Nunez and Vazquez do you cut for Swihart? My answer is none of the above. He didn't prove he was ready.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Dojji

[OH FOY]

I think Eovaldi goes to BP.