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Posted
The oddsmakers' primary goal is to set the odds so that equal money is bet on both sides.

 

Bell , That is true. However a lot of betting is just straight up between friends or acquaintances. Betting on the underdog at even money is a poor strategy indeed.

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Posted
Most lines are far from -110, and we will likely have home field for a wild card game.

My point was that being a favorite usually means you win.

 

Oh, I agree, the favorite wins the majority of the time. But in a baseball playoff game that probably translates to the favorite winning 52% of the time.

Posted
Oh, I agree, the favorite wins the majority of the time. But in a baseball playoff game that probably translates to the favorite winning 52% of the time.

 

You made that 52% up, but I think it could be about right. Baseball game outcomes are really hard to predict.

 

Last year, for example, the Guardians had the best won-loss % at 63%, then the Astros at 62%, then the Sox and Yankees at about 57%. If they all play a 10 game series--not against each other-- and win their usual amount, they all win 6 games. The length of the MLB season--162 games, which is 6 games a week for six months-- makes small differences seem bigger than they are.

 

That said, I also believe pitching matchups can be pretty decisive. But even aces can have off nights and non-aces rise to the occasion. In the 2013 ALCS, our ace was Lester, but it was Lackey who started vs. Verlander and won, 1-0.

 

I firmly believe that the unpredictability of games, pitchers, hitters, etc is one of the great strengths of baseball and MLB.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Why?

 

No. 1 He understands that this is mid-season; bot September.

 

His relationsship with umpires. He undertsands the problems that go with the job.

 

No player is on the field that is not in the best condition that he can be,

 

He knows pretty well when a player has had an off-day as opposed to being fully incapable.

 

His relationship is 1-1 as wellas.

 

His coaches are into the game, and notcaught up in the numbers game.

 

His players become player-coaches with 100% clubhouse agreement.

 

He gets his pitchers off the mound when they NEED to get off; not when their win-loss column is affected.

 

Every player on this team seems to know he is there for him, and not the front office.

 

I don't know who had the final say when Cora was selected, but they bot deserve a raise!

Posted
Considering he was on TV for a few years, then one season as the bench coach for WS winning Astros, Cora has organized this wild bunch into a cohesive team, uses his excellent bench players well and has led the Sox to the best record in baseball. Perfect ? No, but damn good for a rookie manager, with a new set of coaches including a pitching coach (Dana L.) who was a bullpen catcher a few years ago.
Posted
Why?

 

No. 1 He understands that this is mid-season; bot September.

 

His relationsship with umpires. He undertsands the problems that go with the job.

 

No player is on the field that is not in the best condition that he can be,

 

He knows pretty well when a player has had an off-day as opposed to being fully incapable.

 

His relationship is 1-1 as wellas.

 

His coaches are into the game, and notcaught up in the numbers game.

 

His players become player-coaches with 100% clubhouse agreement.

 

He gets his pitchers off the mound when they NEED to get off; not when their win-loss column is affected.

 

Every player on this team seems to know he is there for him, and not the front office.

 

I don't know who had the final say when Cora was selected, but they bot deserve a raise!

 

This! ^^^

 

Nice post from the guy who's probably seen more managers than anyone on the board, so he should know!

Posted

Thanks, Deweu!, Reminds me of one of everybody's favorites, Casey Stengel Bees won barely enough games in his first year tofinish a fraction over. 500. After that, they were sometomes lucky to over .400! Then to the Yankees and .600's every year.

 

Lousy team vs great teams, OK. But the 77 year schooling didn/t hurt. He was fun to watch no matter where he was!

Posted
There will be questions of what Cora was thinking to allow Porcello to go so long when it was obvious he didn't have anything tonight. I see little justification for his inaction.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
There will be questions of what Cora was thinking to allow Porcello to go so long when it was obvious he didn't have anything tonight. I see little justification for his inaction.

 

It was only 2 innings. I don’t blame a manager if he leaves in a pitcher with a track record in to try and pitch himself out of a funk...

Posted
There will be questions of what Cora was thinking to allow Porcello to go so long when it was obvious he didn't have anything tonight. I see little justification for his inaction.

 

It was only 2 innings. I don’t blame a manager if he leaves in a pitcher with a track record in to try and pitch himself out of a funk...

 

That and the fact he's a little short-staffed right now with Pomeranz, Wright and Johnson all on the shelf. I think Velazquez was slated to start Sunday's game but he had to pitch 2 innings last night.

Posted
That and the fact he's a little short-staffed right now with Pomeranz, Wright and Johnson all on the shelf. I think Velazquez was slated to start Sunday's game but he had to pitch 2 innings last night.

 

I think the point is that it was obvious Porcello didn't have it last night and rather than letting the team go way down in the score, porcello needed relief. In the end, Cora had to use the P anyway, so nothing was saved by getting Porcello shelled totally. It is true that the Sox staff is short right now, but there are also only a couple of games remaining until the break. Having Kelly and Robbie Scott look ineffective is another issue. It still looks like the BP shold be a priority in DDs thinking.

Posted
I think the point is that it was obvious Porcello didn't have it last night and rather than letting the team go way down in the score, porcello needed relief.

 

Cora could see that he didn't have his good stuff just as much as we could. But Porcello has had games in the past where he has looked bad early and then gotten better.

 

Cora's options were all bad there. I understand what his thinking was. That's all I'm saying.

Posted

My guess is the Sox are gonna call up a DFA candidate and punt the final game of the first half of the season.

 

Btw, how the mighty have fallen. Joe Kelly looked like he was heading towards a big payday, but his performance of late will likely remove him from high leverage situations

Posted
My guess is the Sox are gonna call up a DFA candidate and punt the final game of the first half of the season.

 

Btw, how the mighty have fallen. Joe Kelly looked like he was heading towards a big payday, but his performance of late will likely remove him from high leverage situations

 

Thanks for stopping by to....not troll?

Btw, betances blow any games lately, his performance of late will likely remove him from high leverage situations

Old-Timey Member
Posted (edited)
My guess is the Sox are gonna call up a DFA candidate and punt the final game of the first half of the season.

 

Btw, how the mighty have fallen. Joe Kelly looked like he was heading towards a big payday, but his performance of late will likely remove him from high leverage situations

 

I'm sure Sox management is disgusted with him allowing 1 ER this month and that awful 35-6 record in games he has appeared.

 

Also, why would the Sox call up a pitcher just to DFA him? Wouldn't they have to DFA someone else just to get him on the 40-man roster?

 

Chandler Shepherd might get the call, but the most likely scenario is they simply activate Wright on Sunday...

Edited by notin
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Cora could see that he didn't have his good stuff just as much as we could. But Porcello has had games in the past where he has looked bad early and then gotten better.

 

Cora's options were all bad there. I understand what his thinking was. That's all I'm saying.

 

If the posters on the board can see what a pitcher has or does not have, of course Cora and his coaching staff can see it as well.

 

We are still in the marathon phase of the season. Cora has to be cognizant of overusing his BP, just as he is being cognizant of limiting the starting pitchers' innings. Being only the 3rd inning, I can't really fault Cora for leaving Porcello in. Not to mention that I'm sure Cora has a lot of confidence in our offense to put up some more runs.

Posted
If the posters on the board can see what a pitcher has or does not have, of course Cora and his coaching staff can see it as well.

 

We are still in the marathon phase of the season. Cora has to be cognizant of overusing his BP, just as he is being cognizant of limiting the starting pitchers' innings. Being only the 3rd inning, I can't really fault Cora for leaving Porcello in. Not to mention that I'm sure Cora has a lot of confidence in our offense to put up some more runs.

And sometimes a driver sees the red light and goes through it anyway. People make poor decisions sometimes despite all of the information available.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
And sometimes a driver sees the red light and goes through it anyway. People make poor decisions sometimes despite all of the information available.

 

Of course it ended up being a poor decision.

 

Two reasons why I can be on board with the decision, both dealing with long term effects:

 

1. Saving the BP some innings. (Yes, I know that he ended up having to go to the pen anyway).

 

2. Showing a vote of confidence in Porcello to work his way through it.

Posted
Of course it ended up being a poor decision.

 

Two reasons why I can be on board with the decision, both dealing with long term effects:

 

1. Saving the BP some innings. (Yes, I know that he ended up having to go to the pen anyway).

 

2. Showing a vote of confidence in Porcello to work his way through it.

I am glad that you admit that it was a poor decision. You always like to let the manager off the hook with excuses. Final verdict: It was a poor decision and many of us knew it in real time.
Posted
I am glad that you admit that it was a poor decision. You always like to let the manager off the hook with excuses. Final verdict: It was a poor decision and many of us knew it in real time.

 

Final verdict, good one. I thought you were a lawyer, not a judge.

Posted
Final verdict, good one. I thought you were a lawyer, not a judge.
It is the final verdict. Even Kimmi admits that it was a bad decision although she makes excuses for it. No one disagrees that it was a bad decision. Hence, it is the final verdict.

 

BTW, the lawyers write the judge’s opinions. The judge attaches his/her name.

Community Moderator
Posted
It is the final verdict. Even Kimmi admits that it was a bad decision although she makes excuses for it. No one disagrees that it was a bad decision. Hence, it is the final verdict.

 

BTW, the lawyers write the judge’s opinions. The judge attaches his/her name.

 

I think Cora made the right call.

Community Moderator
Posted
Of course it ended up being a poor decision.

 

Two reasons why I can be on board with the decision, both dealing with long term effects:

 

1. Saving the BP some innings. (Yes, I know that he ended up having to go to the pen anyway).

 

2. Showing a vote of confidence in Porcello to work his way through it.

 

You can make a great decision (even the most perfect decision) and have it not work out due to LOL random baseball. Something not working out doesn't make it the wrong decision. If Betts leads off the game after the AS Break and goes 0-4, was it a "poor decision" to play Betts? Of course not, he's one of the two best players in the game.

 

Cora made the right call. Try to save the pen for the long run. It was the right decision and a "good" decision. I hope Cora makes the same decision next time.

Community Moderator
Posted
I guess there needs to be something to argue about with the lull in play.

 

Need something to get me through the day!

 

Unless someone wants to argue with me that Incredibles 2 was better than Incredibles 1. I'm here for that argument as well.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
You can make a great decision (even the most perfect decision) and have it not work out due to LOL random baseball. Something not working out doesn't make it the wrong decision. If Betts leads off the game after the AS Break and goes 0-4, was it a "poor decision" to play Betts? Of course not, he's one of the two best players in the game.

 

Cora made the right call. Try to save the pen for the long run. It was the right decision and a "good" decision. I hope Cora makes the same decision next time.

 

I completely agree. The key words in my opening sentence are "ended up".

Community Moderator
Posted
I completely agree. The key words in my opening sentence are "ended up".

 

But it didn't end up being a "poor decision" though.

Posted (edited)
But it didn't end up being a "poor decision" though.
They did win the game, but under your own logic, that doesn’t mean that it was the right decision. You are being being inconsistent if you are taking the position that a bad outcome doesn’t indicate a bad decision but a good outcome correlates with a good decision.

 

i think our boys bailed out Cora’s very poor pitching decisions in that game.

Edited by a700hitter

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