The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[SoxnCycles]

i think i'm falling into this category too.

 

You're so easy!

[Kimmi]

I'm not a very smart man but

 

Closer by definition comes in to 'save' a close game. If close game is won randomly, we can probably get away with anyone decent in the pen. Just like last night when Kelly came in to save the game. No?

 

There are so many events that take place during the course of a game that are 'random'. If any one of those random events did not occur or occurred differently, the outcome of the game could be completely different.

 

That doesn't mean that you don't need skilled players in the game. It just means that the outcome of close games is likely determined more by randomness than it is by skill.

[Kimmi]

In close games, Kimbrel is King.

 

But I do agree, typically the closer the game, the less it takes for any mundane, but game deciding play to happen and change a would be W to an L or vice-versa.

 

Having a great Closer can help tremendously, but it’s not a lock.

 

Great closers can certainly cut down the randomness. They’re the “Ace” of the Bullpen in a way. That’s what they get paid to do and they’re pretty good at it.

 

I don't know that great closers 'cut down the randomness', but I agree with your overall point.

[Kimmi]

Well, there are a lot of substitutions that occur in baseball games.

 

To totally dismiss the importance of handling these properly seems unfair to the manager, IMO. They can't just take a snooze in the dugout...they have to be pretty alert.

 

Of course the manager needs to be alert to make the decisions.

 

My argument is with how big of an impact those decisions have on the outcome of the game.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know that great closers 'cut down the randomness', but I agree with your overall point.

 

This randomness thing does get a bit confusing.

 

Why wouldn't exceptionally good late-inning pitchers that are generally used to protect close leads enhance your chances to win close games?

[Kimmi]

If we look at Ben's attempts to secure a closer, he made 3 separate trades for high profile closer types-Bailey, Melancon and Hanrahan, all of which failed. He traded away quite a few players in the process-Reddick and Lowrie the only ones who may have been missed, I think.

 

Ben also signed Koji Uehara, which was a brilliant success and one of the best moves of his tenure.

 

Dombrowski went for the conservative and expensive play with Kimbrel. Dombrowski had come in for a lot of criticism in his tenure with the Tigers about his bullpens and closers. Tigers fans may forever believe they would have beaten us in 2013 if they had a real deal closer who wouldn't have blown Game 2.

 

I don't disagree with what you're saying. High profile closers from one year often fail in subsequent years. And other relievers step up and become lights out closers. I am fully aware that the difficulty comes with finding those diamonds in the rough.

 

I've always agreed with the philosophy of acquiring as many arms as possible for that reason, and seeing what sticks. That means prospects as well as free agents.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course the manager needs to be alert to make the decisions.

 

My argument is with how big of an impact those decisions have on the outcome of the game.

 

The impact of anything a manager does, whether before, during or after the game, would seem to be completely unquantifiable.

[Kimmi]

Why do I get the feeling that you will continue to argue about game 1 until game 162, unless everyone agrees with you. Argue away. Cora made a mistake in game 1. It wasn't Kelly's day. He just didn't have it. His mother probably could have told Cora to get him out of there after the second walk. Managers make plenty of mistakes. You tend to think that any criticism of a managerial move is a complete condemnation of the manager as evidenced by the last sentence of your post about Cora being "a solid pick." No one has said otherwise, but he screwed the pooch in game 1, which is in the rear view mirror after a 4-1 start. There is plenty of inexplicable managerial stupidity in dugouts throughout the major leagues. Cora doesn't have the market cornered on that aspect. Hey, maybe he left Kelly in, because he didn't have anyone warming in his bullpen.

 

I have no problem with you thinking that Cora made a mistake by leaving Kelly in too long. I think he left Kelly in too long also, though I think that decision is defensible.

 

What I have a problem with is blaming the loss on Cora. He is not responsible for the loss.

[Kimmi]

The impact of anything a manager does, whether before, during or after the game, would seem to be completely unquantifiable.

 

I get that there are some things that can't be quantified, but completely unquantifiable? No.

 

Win expectancy largely quantifies the difference between choice A and choice B.

[Kimmi]

This randomness thing does get a bit confusing.

 

Why wouldn't exceptionally good late-inning pitchers that are generally used to protect close leads enhance your chances to win close games?

 

Of course they do.

 

But what about all the randomness that occurred before the 9th inning? And even with a great closer, randomness can and will often trump the performance of the closer when we are talking about one run.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course they do.

 

But what about all the randomness that occurred before the 9th inning? And even with a great closer, randomness can and will often trump the performance of the closer when we are talking about one run.

 

But does a great closer (or a great late inning bullpen) have any impact at all on close game randomness?

[cp176]

But does a great closer (or a great late inning bullpen) have any impact at all on close game randomness?

 

It is an interesting concept - randomness. I think that it is much easier to comment about things like this in hindsight. What ifs if you will. Managers will continue to make decisions during every game that is played. Maybe in certain situations the impact is great and perhaps in some it would make no difference whether they were there or not. My preference will always be to have someone calling the shots who actually makes decisions based on what they feel are right in the moment. I'll take my chances with those guys. Hindsight allows us to scrutinize every move they make. When there are no managers and no coaches, maybe then we will actually know how much of a difference a good one might make.

[Natick to NC]

Time to trade Blake Swihart ...free Blake or get rid of Sandy and move on with a much more Athletuc catcher

[Emp9]

Of course they do.

 

But what about all the randomness that occurred before the 9th inning? And even with a great closer, randomness can and will often trump the performance of the closer when we are talking about one run.

 

All the randomness? The mere fact that teams have scouting reports alone dismisses this randomness run amok argument. I can’t get a scouting report on a roulette table. I think your position is about ‘Chance’, not ‘Randomness’, right?Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability. Baseball is full of patterns and predictability and probability. There's foreknowledge and past events that are available to consider.

 

A one-run Save situation is the smallest margin for error a Closer can have. Also means the opposing team has to score the least amount of runs possible (1), other than zero, to escape the save. I don’t always think there has to be luck or randomness involved, but if there were a time and place for luck and randomness to happen and be meaningful, a one-out save situation would be it.

[a700hitter]

yeah, managers usually do that, then pinch hit with them and let them play multiple innings of defense in extras. its a good strategy.

and maybe that is BS... just sayin.

[a700hitter]

Tough crowd. When the Sox lose, it's because of Cora. When they win, it's in spite of him. Me, I give a lot of leeway to a new guy whose team has gone 5-1 on their first road trip.

Has anyone said this ^. Stop making up s***.

[a700hitter]

I don't think your thesis holds up too well when the evidence so far is that Cora has been terrific with the bullpen,which has now pitched 23 innings in 6 games, and, indeed, that Smith and Kelly, including a save by Kelly in a 1 run game, have both pitched well since the eighth inning of game 1. I just don't think the same guy can be a blithering idiot in one game and pretty darn good in five other games. You appear to be saying, "of course he can." We get out of that infamous 8th with a 4-2 lead if Smith (not Kelly) gets Denard out instead of giving up that bases clearly triple. Since Denard, Smith has been pretty good. Our stupendous closer, on the other hand, has pitched three innings and had 2 baserunners in two of those innings. Cora to me has done a terrific job getting the right arms into games at the right times.

He made a mistake that cost them game 1. He didn't act like a "blithering idiot" for the entire game. Acknowledging a mistake doesn't condemn Cora. Managers make mistakes. Just because he managed well the next 5 games doesn't convert his mistake into a correct move. That is not a logical thesis.

[a700hitter]

I have no problem with you thinking that Cora made a mistake by leaving Kelly in too long. I think he left Kelly in too long also, though I think that decision is defensible.

 

What I have a problem with is blaming the loss on Cora. He is not responsible for the loss.

If the mistake directly resulted in the loss, I don't see how he doesn't share responsibility for the loss.

[mvp 78]

https://deadspin.com/what-did-gabe-kapler-f***-up-this-time-1825010802

 

Just glad I'm not a Philly fan.

[Hitch]

We have to get Homefield to win the World Series it's a must ...This time off crap is fine if it's done for the right reason not I repeat not to appease some brat Millionaire who still thinks he can man a position ..JD is a DH now take it or hit the Road .

 

You just spend all day making things up in your head to be angry about don't you?

[Bellhorn04]

https://deadspin.com/what-did-gabe-kapler-f***-up-this-time-1825010802

 

Just glad I'm not a Philly fan.

 

Ouch. Gabe just might take over the #1 spot from Butch Hobson on the 'Worst Managers who Played for the Red Sox' list.

[Hitch]

Has anyone said this ^. Stop making up s***.

 

Plenty of people appear happy to put the blame of a loss on him, but not credit him for the wins.

 

Some people just aren't happy unless they're bitching/trying to prove themselves right.

[mvp 78]

Ouch. Gabe just might take over the #1 spot from Butch Hobson on the 'Worst Managers who Played for the Red Sox' list.

@JonHeyman

 

Inside Baseball: in 2 hours gabe kapler will face perhaps his toughest critics (philly fans). or perhaps 2nd toughest. a quote from the clubhouse: "We'll be OK .. we just need the manager to get out of the way."

 

What's the earliest a manager has been fired?

[cp176]

Plenty of people appear happy to put the blame of a loss on him, but not credit him for the wins.

 

Some people just aren't happy unless they're bitching/trying to prove themselves right.

 

Or maybe just bitching about other people bitching! lol

[cp176]

Just out of curiosity - Am I right when I say that I remember Matt Williams falling asleep in the Nationals' dugout a few years ago?

[a700hitter]

Plenty of people appear happy to put the blame of a loss on him, but not credit him for the wins.

 

Some people just aren't happy unless they're bitching/trying to prove themselves right.

No one has said that the team has won "in spite" of the manager. That is the making up s*** part.

[Spudboy]

Or maybe just bitching about other people bitching! lol

 

lol:rolleyes:

[Maxbialystock]

No one has said that the team has won "in spite" of the manager. That is the making up s*** part.

 

Fair enough. However, please feel free to quote yourself in any thread thus far in which you say Cora did something good.

 

Maybe something like, "wow. The Sox can't hit spit but they are 6-1 and leading the AL East by 2 games. Cora seems to know what he is doing in close games, of which there have been a lot."

 

What I'm getting at is the normal catch 22 for Sox managers. If the bullpen does well, it's because they pitched well. If they don't, it's the manager's fault. You would not be the first to think that way.

[Maxbialystock]

Has anyone said this ^. Stop making up s***.

 

Actually, I'm not. A ton of people have commented on how dumb Cora was to start JD in RF in the final game in Miami, a game the Sox won. What do you want to bet the same things were said after Carson Smith gave up that 2 run dinger yesterday in the 8th? What was Cora thinking? Couldn't he even remember what Smith did in the 8th of game 1 when Denard got that bases clearing triple?

[cp176]

Actually, I'm not. A ton of people have commented on how dumb Cora was to start JD in RF in the final game in Miami, a game the Sox won. What do you want to bet the same things were said after Carson Smith gave up that 2 run dinger yesterday in the 8th? What was Cora thinking? Couldn't he even remember what Smith did in the 8th of game 1 when Denard got that bases clearing triple?

 

Ok Max - First of all I am a Cora fan. But (God help me for saying this) what did he actually do that made it possible for us to win that game yesterday? I hate to even use the word random because I do think that a manager's decisions can greatly affect any games outcome but yesterday I didn't see much that Alex actually did that lead us to victory. We got lucky. You or I could have been in that dugout yesterday and we likely would have won the game. Bottom line for me so far this season is yes we have gotten off to a great start beating teams that we are expected to beat but we sure have had some luck on our side if you ask me.