A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

7. Extra motivation after a disappointing year? I think this might also be a thing. I read an article about Bogaerts working extra hard this offseason to add some muscle.

 

Holt did, too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Good news. The Red Sox are willing to go past the highest luxury tax threshold.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/red-sox-trade-rumors-luxury-tax-starting-pitcher-rotation.html

 

John Henry has so much money -- why not? And losing 10 spots in the draft isn't a big deal. In many cases, the players available at 33 are the same players (in terms of talent and upside) who are available at 43.

 

True, this would reduce the Red Sox's draft budget, but they have to go all in this year. At the end of the day, with a draft budget reduction of around $400,000, we are talking about maybe one fewer hard-to-sign draftee in the Red Sox system. In many cases, that $400,000 is wasted anyway on players who never develop.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Emp9]

Oh good. I’ll simply just pretend we drafted a pitcher at 33 that never developed. Keep with tradition.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

For the 2nd year in a row a deep starting rotation has been hurt badly by injury. Never did I imagine they would have to be considering trading prospects from a depleted farm system for a starter. I sure hope they don't do that, they already need to spend prospects on a set up man.

[moonslav59]

Johnson's doing fine. We have Velazquez ready when needed, and Wright should be back soon.

 

I'd wait until nearer the deadline to see how things are looking. (There's also waiver wire deals, if needed.)

[FredLynn]

Johnson's doing fine. We have Velazquez ready when needed, and Wright should be back soon.

 

I'd wait until nearer the deadline to see how things are looking. (There's also waiver wire deals, if needed.)

 

Our need for another SP entirely depends on how ERod is doing, and last I heard it wasn't encouraging news from Cora. I would not be depending on Johnson and Velasquez to lead us to an ALE title.

[notin]

Our need for another SP entirely depends on how ERod is doing, and last I heard it wasn't encouraging news from Cora. I would not be depending on Johnson and Velasquez to lead us to an ALE title.

 

Or Beeks.

 

I could see a deal for James Shields happening this month...

[S5Dewey]

We should all remember this in March of 2019 if our pitching staff looks to be nine deep. s*** happens, and it happens frequently. Especially to pitchers, it seems.

[moonslav59]

Our need for another SP entirely depends on how ERod is doing, and last I heard it wasn't encouraging news from Cora. I would not be depending on Johnson and Velasquez to lead us to an ALE title.

 

I'm not. I'm depending on them holding the fort until Wright, Pom and ERod return.

 

If it looks like 2 or those 3 will not return, then I go looking. I'm not sure we know enough now to do that.

 

We have limited trade resources. If we can find a starter for cheap, I'm all for it, but good ones aren't cheap.

 

I still think building the pen is our number one priority.

[moonslav59]

We should all remember this in March of 2019 if our pitching staff looks to be nine deep. s*** happens, and it happens frequently. Especially to pitchers, it seems.

 

I'm thinking we're looking pretty good this year, despite the injuries. I think we have handled them nicely. Wright should be close to ready to step in for ERod.

 

We started this year with 9.

 

Sale

Porcello

Price

ERod

Pom

 

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Haley (Beeks passed him during the season)

 

[notin]

We should all remember this in March of 2019 if our pitching staff looks to be nine deep. s*** happens, and it happens frequently. Especially to pitchers, it seems.

 

I preached that all February and March. It only matters if Dombrowski listens, not you people. (Many of whom told me to please stop, only less politely. And to be fair, it's not like any of you could do anything about it.)...

[OH FOY]

64 games left 33 games are with teams over .500 at this point.

Last part of season should get interesting.

Edited July 18, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

Johnson's doing fine. We have Velazquez ready when needed, and Wright should be back soon.

 

I'd wait until nearer the deadline to see how things are looking. (There's also waiver wire deals, if needed.)

 

As I have said before, I would not go over the luxury tax limit for what will likely be only a marginal upgrade.

 

Our team, even with the pitching injuries, is fine. More than fine, they're pretty doggone good!

 

There's a good chance that Dombrowski will come up with something creative that none of us have thought of.

 

There's a good chance that he will just add a strong pen arm.

 

I'm good with that.

[Kimmi]

I'm not. I'm depending on them holding the fort until Wright, Pom and ERod return.

 

If it looks like 2 or those 3 will not return, then I go looking. I'm not sure we know enough now to do that.

 

We have limited trade resources. If we can find a starter for cheap, I'm all for it, but good ones aren't cheap.

 

I still think building the pen is our number one priority.

 

Well said.

[Kimmi]

I preached that all February and March. It only matters if Dombrowski listens, not you people. (Many of whom told me to please stop, only less politely. And to be fair, it's not like any of you could do anything about it.)...

 

The old adage about never having enough pitching is the absolute truth. My thinking is that you always stockpile as many arms as you reasonably can, even if it doesn't seem like they'll be needed or that they'll make any positive contribution to the team. You just never know. And really, what's the harm in doing that?

[a700hitter]

I preached that all February and March. It only matters if Dombrowski listens, not you people. (Many of whom told me to please stop, only less politely. And to be fair, it's not like any of you could do anything about it.)...

Who impolitely told you that we had enough pitching. As Dewey said, stuff happens during the season and pitching is always in short supply. Second, there is no reason to be impolite about wanting more pitching.

 

Dumpster diving is not the way to go in most cases as it almost always crashes and burns. Last year it was Kyle Kendrick’s, but they found some success with Doug Fister. It is a real shot in the dark. If you are spending well over $200 million on your payroll, I would look to acquire more of a known quantity.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

You don't want to go over the highest luxury tax limit every year, but once or twice every 10 years doesn't seem like a big deal to me. It makes sense for the Red Sox to go over it this year: (1) they are up against the luxury tax limit, but have a real shot to win a championship, and so why not make improvements at the deadline regardless of the financial cost? (2) Sandoval and Hanley's contracts are not going to be on the books forever--the two main culprits behind the Red Sox's excessive payroll.

 

edit: clarification of "highest" luxury tax limit.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure what the big deal is. You don't want to go over the luxury tax limit every year, but if you go over it once or twice every ten years, that seems pretty meaningless. It makes sense for the Red Sox to go over it this year: (1) they are up against the luxury tax limit, but have a real shot to win a championship, and so why not make improvements at the deadline regardless of the financial cost? (2) Sandoval and Hanley's contracts are not going to be on the books forever--the two main culprits behind the Red Sox's excessive payroll.

 

Just to be clear, we're already about 40 million over the luxury tax limit of 197 million. What's being discussed is the 237 million threshold which brings in a whole other set of penalties.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Yes, we are talking about going over the highest luxury tax threshold, and according to a report, the Red Sox plan to go over it. The penalties are financial, but John Henry can afford them. The Red Sox lose ten spots in the draft, but that can be pretty meaningless.

[Spudboy]

Yes, we are talking about going over the highest luxury tax threshold, and according to a report, the Red Sox plan to go over it. The penalties are financial, but John Henry can afford them. The Red Sox lose ten spots in the draft, but that can be pretty meaningless.

 

Umm, at the same time the Sox get hit with a reduction of slot money.

 

That will hinder their ability to lure draftees with above slot money.

[notin]

Who impolitely told you that we had enough pitching. As Dewey said, stuff happens during the season and pitching is always in short supply. Second, there is no reason to be impolite about wanting more pitching.

 

Dumpster diving is not the way to go in most cases as it almost always crashes and burns. Last year it was Kyle Kendrick’s, but they found some success with Doug Fister. It is a real shot in the dark. If you are spending well over $200 million on your payroll, I would look to acquire more of a known quantity.

 

I think their brashness dealt more with my constant repetitiveness and singular approach. Hey I'm not saying I didn't deserve it...

[moonslav59]

I preached that all February and March. It only matters if Dombrowski listens, not you people. (Many of whom told me to please stop, only less politely. And to be fair, it's not like any of you could do anything about it.)...

 

There wasn't much available back then. I'm glad we didn't get Cobb.

 

If we can get a pitcher for as cheap as we got Pearce, then go for it.

[moonslav59]

As I have said before, I would not go over the luxury tax limit for what will likely be only a marginal upgrade.

 

Our team, even with the pitching injuries, is fine. More than fine, they're pretty doggone good!

 

There's a good chance that Dombrowski will come up with something creative that none of us have thought of.

 

There's a good chance that he will just add a strong pen arm.

 

I'm good with that.

 

Me, too.

 

I said something similar weeks ago. If we are going to go over, don't do it half-ass.

[Kimmi]

Yes, we are talking about going over the highest luxury tax threshold, and according to a report, the Red Sox plan to go over it. The penalties are financial, but John Henry can afford them. The Red Sox lose ten spots in the draft, but that can be pretty meaningless.

 

Of course Henry can afford it, but that doesn't mean that it's something that he's readily willing to do. Besides the higher penalties, etc., going so far over could make it more difficult to be able to reset the penalty in a couple of years, which, in turn, will result in even stiffer penalties.

[moonslav59]

Of course Henry can afford it, but that doesn't mean that it's something that he's readily willing to do. Besides the higher penalties, etc., going so far over could make it more difficult to be able to reset the penalty in a couple of years, which, in turn, will result in even stiffer penalties.

 

If we get a rental, it won't affect going over in coming years.

 

My wonder is about Henry being viewed as the next Stienbrenner. We're going to have a budget more than 20% higher than the next team, if we go large now.

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at some of our key players and their OPS progression/regressions:

 

Old to New

Red=worst

Blue=best

 

Betts

.820>.897>.803>.1139

 

Bogey

.776>.802>.746>.889

 

Beni

.776> .897

 

Bradley

.832>.835>.726>.642

 

JD

.879>.908>.1.066>1.037

 

Moreland

.812>.720>.769>.853

 

Vazquez

.735>.548

 

Leon

.845>.644>.652

[moonslav59]

Sox current OPS leaders:

 

1.139 Betts (Just sick!!!)

1.039 JD (Everything we wanted and more.)

.952 Pearce (1.192 with Sox)

.897 Beni (Blossoming in front of our eyes.)

.889 Bogey (Living up to the early hype.)

.853 Moreland (Loving life in Boston.)

.748 Holt (Stay strong, please!)

.715 Devers (One area we could get much better going forward.)

.652 Leon (Got himself up to respectability.)

.644 Nunez (One of the few disappointments. Injury???)

.642 JBJ (Coming on strong.)

.548 Vaz (Gotta keep bringing the OPS up.)

.513 Swihart (Not really solidifying his future in Boston.)

 

ERA (Listed in order of IP

2.23 Sale (Chris FREAKIN' Sale!)

4.13 Porcello (That shellacking really hurt his ERA.)

4.42 Price (Stay healthy is all I ask.)

3.44 ERod (Get healthy, please!)

2.66 Velazquez (Quietly became our #5 innings guy.)

4.20 Johnson (Bringing up his numbers.)

2.36 Barnes (Doing better than some give him credit for.)

1.77 Kimbrel (Buttah!)

3.79 Hembree (1.34 WHIP is scary.)

4.31 Kelly (Maybe better suited for the 7th inning.)

6.81 Pom-pom (WTF?)

1.62 Workman (Maybe our best hope for an in-house, second-half pen boost)

3.68 Walden (One can hope.)

1.69 Poyner (Sleeper.)

5.40 Thornburg(3.1 IP)

 

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2018 by moonslav59

[SoxHop]

Sox current OPS leaders:

 

1.139 Betts (Jusr sick!!!)

1.039 JD (Everything we wanted and more.)

.952 Pearce (1.192 with Sox)

.897 Beni (Blossoming in front of our eyes.)

.889 Bogey (Living up to the early hype.)

.853 Moreland (Loving life in Boston.)

.748 Holt (Stay strong, please!)

.715 Devers (One area we could get much better going forward.)

.652 Leon (Got himself up to respectability.)

.644 Nunez (One of the few disappointments. Injury???)

.642 JBJ (Coming on strong.)

.548 Vaz (Gotta keep bringing the OPS up.)

.513 Swihart (Not really solidifying his future in Boston.)

 

ERA (Listed in order of IP

2.23 Sale (Chris FREAKIN' Sale!)

4.13 Porcello (That shellacking really hurt his ERA.)

4.42 Price (Stay healthy is all I ask.)

3.44 ERod (Get healthy, please!)

2.66 Velazquez (Quietly became our #5 innings guy.)

4.20 Johnson (Bringing up his numbers.)

2.36 Barnes (Doing better than some give him credit for.)

1.77 Kimbrel (Buttah!)

3.79 Hembree (1.34 WHIP is scary.)

4.31 Kelly (Maybe better suited for the 7th inning.)

6.81 Pom-pom (WTF?)

1.62 Workman (Maybe our best hope for an in-house, second-half pen boost)

3.68 Walden (One can hope.)

1.69 Poyner (Sleeper.)

5.40 Thornburg(3.1 IP)

 

 

 

 

 

LOL! Nailed it!

[SoxHop]

Since right here isn't going to single anyone out.

 

When people use the word meh, it angers me. I'm at the point where it angers me so much, I'm going to lose my s*** one day on a reply that starts with meh. It's just the lamest reply I can think of. It's insulting with being just so wimpy it makes you look like a DB. I can't stand it.

[d-money]

This team’s eerily similar to the 2016 team. They led in a lot of categories only to flop in the postseason. Again nothing short of an ALCS appearance will be a failure. This team was expected to make the playoffs.