A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

No Kimbrel?

 

I assumed he was a given.

[mvp 78]

1. Win this year.

2. Decide who to keep and pay them. (I'd like to keep Betts, Sale and JBJ.)

3. Build the farm- most likely through IFA signings (see #4).

4. Trade some talent for younger players and international bonus money.

5. Sign mid level players to 1-3 year deals for a while.

 

1. Ok.

2. They can keep everyone the want to. (Can't forget about Bogey)

3. Thanks Ben for giving us IFA penalties.

4. Ok? Depends on who you want traded and if they have an in house replacement.

5. Mid level players give us mid level results at inflated prices.

[sk7326]

Can we just spend the money on the Mets people who find all their great SP'ers?

 

That's gotta be cheaper than spending money and talent on signing and trading for them.

 

Get a team on the other side of a trade like the Blue Jays who bet on an aging knuckleballer. (how the Mets got Syndegaard)

Get a contender on the other side of a deal like the Giants who needed Carlos Beltran for the stretch run (how the Mets got Wheeler)

 

The Red Sox have blessedly only been in the position to sell a couple of times - unfortunately due to goofy ownership priorities, the only trade which got that accomplished was dealing Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez.

[moonslav59]

1. Ok.

2. They can keep everyone the want to. (Can't forget about Bogey)

No, they can't keep everybody. I'd like to keep Bogey, too, but I think he'll be the odd man out.

3. Thanks Ben for giving us IFA penalties.

Ben also gave us many great IFA signings- many of whom were traded for Sale and others.

4. Ok? Depends on who you want traded and if they have an in house replacement.

Of course. DD has done very well with more minor deals.

5. Mid level players give us mid level results at inflated prices.

Like Pearce, Moreland, Kinsler, Eovaldi and Brasier?

 

I realize it's easier said than done, but I like this strategy better than using 70% of our budget on 4-6 guys.

Edited September 14, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

2. They can keep everyone the want to. (Can't forget about Bogey)

 

Betts, Sale, Bogey - assume an average cost of 31 mill. That's 93 mill.

Price 31 mill.

Kimbrel say 16 mill.

 

That's 140 mill on 5 players before even getting to Beni and JBJ. It's gonna be tough.

[moonslav59]

Get a team on the other side of a trade like the Blue Jays who bet on an aging knuckleballer. (how the Mets got Syndegaard)

Get a contender on the other side of a deal like the Giants who needed Carlos Beltran for the stretch run (how the Mets got Wheeler)

 

The Red Sox have blessedly only been in the position to sell a couple of times - unfortunately due to goofy ownership priorities, the only trade which got that accomplished was dealing Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez.

 

Indirectly, the Dodger dump got us several FAs that led us to a ring, but your point is spot on.

[Slasher9]

It's by no means a given that they let Kimbrel walk, either.

 

he better forget 4 x $20MM if he wants to stay here.

will he hometown discount?

[Slasher9]

Unless they have a good fallback plan, they better not let him walk.

 

joe kelly??

[Bellhorn04]

he better forget 4 x $20MM if he wants to stay here.

will he hometown discount?

 

It's a great question.

[Slasher9]

It's a great question.

 

hes made $55MM playing baseball through this season. financially he should be able to live with a hometown discount. the union, agent, and his wife may dictate differently........

[sk7326]

Indirectly, the Dodger dump got us several FAs that led us to a ring, but your point is spot on.

 

To a degree - it definitely got them off of those contracts. But who is to say they would not have signed FAs anyway. It's a counterfactual which is impossible to prove. It definitely made them feel better, and freed up roster spots.

[sk7326]

he better forget 4 x $20MM if he wants to stay here.

will he hometown discount?

 

No, you go the other way ... offer him more money on a shorter deal.

[Slasher9]

No, you go the other way ... offer him more money on a shorter deal.

 

what are you willing to give? 2 for $42MM?

do you think he will take that over 4 for 80 that another team will most likely give?

[sk7326]

what are you willing to give? 2 for $42MM?

do you think he will take that over 4 for 80 that another team will most likely give?

 

He may or may not - but it's the best baseball decision. 2 yrs at whatever salary you want, if someone else wants to offer job security, fine. No closer is that irreplaceable - aside from maybe prime Rivera.

[kenmeister]

Rank relievers for the playoffs as of today. I don't want Kelly. 2nd coming of Clay B.

 

Nah, I call the hard-throwers who somehow still get hit all the time the "John Wasdin club".

[moonslav59]

To a degree - it definitely got them off of those contracts. But who is to say they would not have signed FAs anyway. It's a counterfactual which is impossible to prove. It definitely made them feel better, and freed up roster spots.

 

I think it is fair to assume, we would not have signed all those FAs had we still had CC, Beckett and AGon on the books.

[Slasher9]

He may or may not - but it's the best baseball decision. 2 yrs at whatever salary you want, if someone else wants to offer job security, fine. No closer is that irreplaceable - aside from maybe prime Rivera.

 

it's not the salary i want. i was asking for your opinion. so what are you willing to offer?

you replied to my earlier post and said "No, you go the other way ... offer him more money on a shorter deal."

so i asked you what your offer would be?

[Slasher9]

I think it is fair to assume, we would not have signed all those FAs had we still had CC, Beckett and AGon on the books.

 

theres not a chance we would have. the dodgers saved our bacon.

[Maxbialystock]

it's not the salary i want. i was asking for your opinion. so what are you willing to offer?

you replied to my earlier post and said "No, you go the other way ... offer him more money on a shorter deal."

so i asked you what your offer would be?

 

If you guys are talking about Kimbrel, I have to say he ain't one of my keepers. He's 30, he's expensive, he not only doesn't do more than 1 inning at a time, he rarely pitches any inning other than the 9th. He's picky even for a closer.

 

Closers are notoriously up and down. We know for a fact Kimbrel gets into trouble when his knuckle curve isn't working, and sometimes that's exactly what happens.

 

I agree he is one of the best closers in MLB if not the best, but I just can't see spending a lot of money on a guy who pitches an average of 64 innings a year and never, ever has to face the same batter twice in the same game. From what I can see, the setup guy is almost as important because the Sox starters rarely go beyond the 7th inning.

[mvp 78]

If you guys are talking about Kimbrel, I have to say he ain't one of my keepers. He's 30, he's expensive, he not only doesn't do more than 1 inning at a time, he rarely pitches any inning other than the 9th. He's picky even for a closer.

 

Closers are notoriously up and down. We know for a fact Kimbrel gets into trouble when his knuckle curve isn't working, and sometimes that's exactly what happens.

 

I agree he is one of the best closers in MLB if not the best, but I just can't see spending a lot of money on a guy who pitches an average of 64 innings a year and never, ever has to face the same batter twice in the same game. From what I can see, the setup guy is almost as important because the Sox starters rarely go beyond the 7th inning.

 

Closers are notoriously up and down. Kimbrel's "down" year was 2016. I think he's the exception to the rule.

[sk7326]

I think it is fair to assume, we would not have signed all those FAs had we still had CC, Beckett and AGon on the books.

 

I'll put it this way - the deal was useful for clearing the roster of crappy players so we can replace them with non-crappy ones. Gonzalez was not quite crappy yet, but there was good evidence it was heading in that direction.

 

I am much more skeptical of the angle that clearing their salaries meant adding more salary was possible. Given how much the Red Sox are paying now for players not to play for them, I feel comfortable with this assessment.

[Spudboy]

Closers are notoriously up and down. Kimbrel's "down" year was 2016. I think he's the exception to the rule.

 

Yup. I have no idea how he will perform going forward but I would be willing to gamble 3/48-3/50 for him.

 

I don't know how his daughter is doing and what her prognosis is. If her Doctors indicate that she is out of the woods medically then maybe Kimbrel has no reservations about uprooting his familly to another city for the next few years and the remainder of his career.

 

However, if his daughter will require care for the next few years I would think that Kimbrel would consider staying put in Boston and possibly at a reduced rate from what you guys project for him.

[mvp 78]

Yup. I have no idea how he will perform going forward but I would be willing to gamble 3/48-3/50 for him.

 

I don't know how his daughter is doing and what her prognosis is. If her Doctors indicate that she is out of the woods medically then maybe Kimbrel has no reservations about uprooting his familly to another city for the next few years and the remainder of his career.

 

However, if his daughter will require care for the next few years I would think that Kimbrel would consider staying put in Boston and possibly at a reduced rate from what you guys project for him.

 

At 3 years, how can you go wrong? I wouldn't give him 5, but 3 seems very reasonable.

[fxkatt]

I think all the upcoming salary demands will either increase or decrease depending on how deep we go into the playoffs, this year and next. That's the politics of the situation--or the leverage that players have both with the owner and the public.

[moonslav59]

At 3 years, how can you go wrong? I wouldn't give him 5, but 3 seems very reasonable.

 

He's not signing a 3 year deal. This is his big shot at huge money. The closer salary has sky-rocketed.

 

He's going large and long.

[Nick]

I assumed he was a given.

 

He's a closer, not a reliever, Moon. Closers have their own union and PR department, didn't you know?

[Nick]

He's not signing a 3 year deal. This is his big shot at huge money. The closer salary has sky-rocketed.

 

He's going large and long.

 

Only Kimmi approves. Did I just say that?

[FredLynn]

He's not signing a 3 year deal. This is his big shot at huge money. The closer salary has sky-rocketed.

 

He's going large and long.

 

The market for FAs changed this past winter. Some very big names didn't have a contract until very late. Its possible that the owners colluded to make that happen. In any event I don't think it will change much this coming winter. Some players are going to be in for a rude shock.

[moonslav59]

He's a closer, not a reliever, Moon. Closers have their own union and PR department, didn't you know?

 

I don't disagree. Mark my words, Kimbrel will get more than $95M/5, even if he is not great in the playoffs this fall.

[moonslav59]

The market for FAs changed this past winter. Some very big names didn't have a contract until very late. Its possible that the owners colluded to make that happen. In any event I don't think it will change much this coming winter. Some players are going to be in for a rude shock.

 

RP'er contracts went way up. Great closers are signed, usually by the team they already are on, unless the team is a cheapy one..