A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Emp9]

Rodriguez

.408 w Leon (43)

.687 w Vaz (401)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the better choice, but the sample size differential is large.

 

I’m curious how much last night’s game swung Vaz’s numbers for ERod.

[Emp9]

I know some might consider this blasphemy, but has anybody else noticed Lester ain't the same Lester he was the first two years with the Cubs?

 

2015-2016

30-17 2.89 (3.19 FIP/ 1.07 WHIP)

 

2017-2018

27-13 4.03 (4.41 FIP/ 1.32 WHIP)

 

I still wish we kept him, and the whole contract offer fiasco was Ben's lowest hour, but as the contract has played out, worries about long term deals seem to be carrying some weight.

 

(Note: the Lester of 2017-2018 is still pretty damn good.)

 

 

 

Only vaguely. I eventually had to drop Lester from my Fantasy team some time after the AS Break. I remember his opening day stinker, and he did recover for most of the first half. Then his other stinker opening the 2nd half after the AS Break was eerily similar to his horrible opening day start.

[moonslav59]

Rodriguez

.408 w Leon (43)

.687 w Vaz (401)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the better choice, but the sample size differential is large.

 

I’m curious how much last night’s game swung Vaz’s numbers for ERod.

 

.673 in 421 PAs with Vaz-- not much of a nudge with so many total PAs on the season.

[moonslav59]

Solid post here. Thanks Moon

 

For argument's sake, let's say the numbers I posted are good predictors of what is to come (not true, of course), but for those who want Swihart to catch, instead of Vaz or Leon, think about this:

 

Swihart may get up to bat 3-5 times a game. Let's assume he will out hit both of the other catchers by 200 OPS points (.800 to.600 or whatever). That's just 3-5 PAs with a ,200 better OPS.

 

Now, think of a starting pitcher, who is usually involved in 18-24 PAs a game vs the opponents. See where I'm going with this?

 

Is it more important to have Swihart hit 200 points better for 3-5 PAs per game or to have our pitchers hold our opponents to 50-200 points lower over 18-24 PAs? I don't think anyone needs to be a math major to figure this one out.

 

Porcello: Nobody else has caught him. I don't want to mess with that.

Leon.

 

Sale: Swihart has not caught him all year. Sale does better 75 points better with Leon. I'd go with Leon here, but would be okay with Vaz- NOT Swihart.

Leon (Vaz OK)

 

Price: Leon does 182 points better with Leon. Swihart has not caught him this year.

Leon in a landslide.

 

ERod: He has been almost totally caught by Vaz, and while Leon did much better over just 43 PAs, I'm fine with sticking with Vaz, especially after last night's game. Certainly, I would not start using Swihart with ERod at this point in the season.

Leon or Vaz

 

So, with our best 4 starters, there's no way Swihart should ever start.

 

Let's go further...

 

Johnson: He has been caught pretty evenly by all catchers. He's the first one where CERA can really be used most effectively due to the sample size comps. Leon is 48 points better than Swihart and 160 points better than Vaz.

Leon is the clear choice here, too.

 

Velazquez: He has pretty even sample sizes, too. Vaz is just 23 points better than Leon, but he is 80 points better than Swihart.

Vaz or Leon.

 

Eovaldi: He has only been caught by Leon. He's struggled lately, so maybe a switch in catcher could work.

Leon or anyone?

 

Now, once the starter is removed, it looks to be okay to PH for a catcher (or two) as our RP'ers seem to be scattered on who they do better with. It makes more sense to bring Swihart in later in a game than to start him at catcher.

 

Kimbrel is pretty even with all (Swihart sample size is too small)

 

Barnes does better with Vaz and way better tahn Swihart.

 

Hembree does better with Leon, then Swihart.

 

Brasier has never been caught by Vaz.

 

Workman does way worse with Leon.

 

Thornburg way better with Leon.

 

Pom does way better with Swihart.

 

 

I can't help but think it would be absurd to think Swihart should be our starting catcher, and some want to boot Vaz or Leon out by next year. A 200 point gain on offense, which is certainly not a given, since his OPS is .582 this year is NOT enough to offset the expected loss we'd have with our pitchers.

 

Edited September 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[Emp9]

For argument's sake, let's say the numbers I posted are good predictors of what is to come (not true, of course), but for those who want Swihart to catch, instead of Vaz or Leon, think about this:

 

Swihart may get up to bat 3-5 times a game. Let's assume he will out hit both of the other catchers by 200 OPS points (.800 to.600 or whatever). That's just 3-5 PAs with a ,200 better OPS.

 

Now, think of a starting pitcher, who is usually involved in 18-24 PAs a game vs the opponents. See where I'm going with this?

 

Is it more important to have Swihart hit 200 points better for 3-5 PAs per game or to have our pitchers hold our opponents to 50-200 points lower over 18-24 PAs? I don't think anyone needs to be a math major to figure this one out.

 

Porcello: Nobody else has caught him. I don't want to mess with that.

Leon.

 

Sale: Swihart has not caught him all year. Sale does better 75 points better with Leon. I'd go with Leon here, but would be okay with Vaz- NOT Swihart.

Leon (Vaz OK)

 

Price: Leon does 182 points better with Leon. Swihart has not caught him this year.

Leon in a landslide.

 

ERod: He has been almost totally caught by Vaz, and while Leon did much better over just 43 PAs, I'm fine with sticking with Vaz, especially after last night's game. Certainly, I would not start using Swihart with ERod at this point in the season.

Leon or Vaz

 

So, with our best 4 starters, there's no way Swihart should ever start.

 

Let's go further...

 

Johnson: He has been caught pretty evenly by all catchers. He's the first one where CERA can really be used most effectively due to the sample size comps. Leon is 48 points better than Swihart and 160 points better than Vaz.

Leon is the clear choice here, too.

 

Velazquez: He has pretty even sample sizes, too. Vaz is just 23 points better than Leon, but he is 80 points better than Swihart.

Vaz or Leon.

 

Eovaldi: He has only been caught by Leon. He's struggled lately, so maybe a switch in catcher could work.

Leon or anyone?

 

Now, once the starter is removed, it looks to be okay to PH for a catcher (or two) as our RP'ers seem to be scattered on who they do better with. It makes more sense to bring Swihart in later in a game than to start him at catcher.

 

Kimbrel is pretty even with all (Swihart sample size is too small)

 

Barnes does better with Vaz and way better tahn Swihart.

 

Hembree does better with Leon, then Swihart.

 

Brasier has never been caught by Vaz.

 

Workman does way worse with Leon.

 

Thornburg way better with Leon.

 

Pom does way better with Swihart.

 

 

I can't help but think it would be absurd to think Swihart should be our starting catcher, and some want to boot Vaz or Leon out by next year. A 200 point gain on offense, which is certainly not a given, since his OPS is .582 this year is NOT enough to offset the expected loss we'd have with our pitchers.

 

 

I’m in total agreement.

 

A couple things I will say, is that I get the feeling that they may give Leon some rest this final month. I don’t know how much rest, but it should give more looks to both Vaz and Swi. The closer we get to the playoffs, the more we get a better idea who’ll make up our pen. I’d be nice if Swihart gets as many (in-game) reps with the bullpen as he can, as I don’t see him off our postseason roster. I don’t think its too late for Swi to establish a better rapport with most of these pen guys. In a ‘plan for the worst’ type of scenario is what I’m getting at. Today didn’t work out so well score-wise, but I think it’s the right plan if/when we can afford it (Yanks lost anyway).

[dgalehouse]

Kudos to managers Gardenhire and Renteria. They have the Tiger and White Sox kids playing hard in the dog days. No quit at all. Giving the Sox and Yanks all they can handle.

[oldtimer]

I would have preferred the Sox showing some offense, even if they lost due to our weak pitching. Total indifference is not great to see.

[Bellhorn04]

Kudos to managers Gardenhire and Renteria. They have the Tiger and White Sox kids playing hard in the dog days. No quit at all. Giving the Sox and Yanks all they can handle.

 

In my wildest dreams I didn't expect the Yanks to end a 7 game home stand against the White Sox and Tigers at 3-4.

 

A huge break for us.

[moonslav59]

I’m in total agreement.

 

A couple things I will say, is that I get the feeling that they may give Leon some rest this final month. I don’t know how much rest, but it should give more looks to both Vaz and Swi. The closer we get to the playoffs, the more we get a better idea who’ll make up our pen. I’d be nice if Swihart gets as many (in-game) reps with the bullpen as he can, as I don’t see him off our postseason roster. I don’t think its too late for Swi to establish a better rapport with most of these pen guys. In a ‘plan for the worst’ type of scenario is what I’m getting at. Today didn’t work out so well score-wise, but I think it’s the right plan if/when we can afford it (Yanks lost anyway).

 

Leon should get plenty of September rest, but remember, we also get 5 days off between game 162 and playoff game #1.

[moonslav59]

Let's see how we do on the road against a team fighting to make the playoffs.

 

It's not a must win series, but I'd like to see start to turn things around, soon.

[Kimmi]

Let's see how we do on the road against a team fighting to make the playoffs.

 

It's not a must win series, but I'd like to see start to turn things around, soon.

 

So far, so good.

[Bellhorn04]

Today is what you call a beautiful day at the ball yards.

[Kimmi]

Today is what you call a beautiful day at the ball yards.

 

Beautiful indeed!

[moonslav59]

Keep it going. Rev up the engines in time for a bust-it-out October.

[FredLynn]

For argument's sake, let's say the numbers I posted are good predictors of what is to come (not true, of course), but for those who want Swihart to catch, instead of Vaz or Leon, think about this:

 

Swihart may get up to bat 3-5 times a game. Let's assume he will out hit both of the other catchers by 200 OPS points (.800 to.600 or whatever). That's just 3-5 PAs with a ,200 better OPS.

 

Now, think of a starting pitcher, who is usually involved in 18-24 PAs a game vs the opponents. See where I'm going with this?

 

Is it more important to have Swihart hit 200 points better for 3-5 PAs per game or to have our pitchers hold our opponents to 50-200 points lower over 18-24 PAs? I don't think anyone needs to be a math major to figure this one out.

 

Porcello: Nobody else has caught him. I don't want to mess with that.

Leon.

 

Sale: Swihart has not caught him all year. Sale does better 75 points better with Leon. I'd go with Leon here, but would be okay with Vaz- NOT Swihart.

Leon (Vaz OK)

 

Price: Leon does 182 points better with Leon. Swihart has not caught him this year.

Leon in a landslide.

 

ERod: He has been almost totally caught by Vaz, and while Leon did much better over just 43 PAs, I'm fine with sticking with Vaz, especially after last night's game. Certainly, I would not start using Swihart with ERod at this point in the season.

Leon or Vaz

 

So, with our best 4 starters, there's no way Swihart should ever start.

 

Let's go further...

 

Johnson: He has been caught pretty evenly by all catchers. He's the first one where CERA can really be used most effectively due to the sample size comps. Leon is 48 points better than Swihart and 160 points better than Vaz.

Leon is the clear choice here, too.

 

Velazquez: He has pretty even sample sizes, too. Vaz is just 23 points better than Leon, but he is 80 points better than Swihart.

Vaz or Leon.

 

Eovaldi: He has only been caught by Leon. He's struggled lately, so maybe a switch in catcher could work.

Leon or anyone?

 

Now, once the starter is removed, it looks to be okay to PH for a catcher (or two) as our RP'ers seem to be scattered on who they do better with. It makes more sense to bring Swihart in later in a game than to start him at catcher.

 

Kimbrel is pretty even with all (Swihart sample size is too small)

 

Barnes does better with Vaz and way better tahn Swihart.

 

Hembree does better with Leon, then Swihart.

 

Brasier has never been caught by Vaz.

 

Workman does way worse with Leon.

 

Thornburg way better with Leon.

 

Pom does way better with Swihart.

 

 

I can't help but think it would be absurd to think Swihart should be our starting catcher, and some want to boot Vaz or Leon out by next year. A 200 point gain on offense, which is certainly not a given, since his OPS is .582 this year is NOT enough to offset the expected loss we'd have with our pitchers.

 

 

Not buying it at all. You are implying that catcher ERA is an important stat-its not. Its the pitcher who throws the ball. If he is on and hitting the corners it doesn't matter who catches him. If he is catching too much of the plate he will get hit no matter who is catching him. Swihart has played in a total of 64 games this year and even fewer after he was given a chance to play regularly. How many opposing plate appearances could he possibly have for each of the Sox pitchers? Whatever it is, its a small sample size. I know Vas has a negative WAR this year so far....and he can't hit.

 

Swihart has, through his offensive superiority to the other two catchers we have, earned consideration for either a starting job or a backup next year. I understand that you will disagree with this but I am not buying your logic. Call it a difference of opinion.

Edited September 4, 2018 by FredLynn

[moonslav59]

Not buying it at all. You are implying that catcher ERA is an important stat-its not. Its the pitcher who throws the ball. If he is on and hitting the corners it doesn't matter who catches him. If he is catching too much of the plate he will get hit no matter who is catching him. Swihart has played in a total of 64 games this year and even fewer after he was given a chance to play regularly. How many opposing plate appearances could he possibly have for each of the Sox pitchers? Whatever it is, its a small sample size. I know Vas has a negative WAR this year so far....and he can't hit.

 

Swihart has, through his offensive superiority to the other two catchers we have, earned consideration for either a starting job or a backup next year. I understand that you will disagree with this but I am not buying your logic. Call it a difference of opinion.

 

The fact that Sox management avoids starting Swihart at catcher, despite his hot bat, speaks volumes.

 

And, actually, it wasn't CERA I used, it was OPS against.

[FredLynn]

The fact that Sox management avoids starting Swihart at catcher, despite his hot bat, speaks volumes.

 

And, actually, it wasn't CERA I used, it was OPS against.

 

All it says is that we have three catchers and that Swihart is versatile enough to play other positions. Otherwise one of the other two is an appendix.

Vasquez has a horrendous OPS and is having a bad year defensively. If I am the GM and had to choose two catchers for the postseason Vasquez would not be one of them.

[moonslav59]

All it says is that we have three catchers and that Swihart is versatile enough to play other positions. Otherwise one of the other two is an appendix.

Vasquez has a horrendous OPS and is having a bad year defensively. If I am the GM and had to choose two catchers for the postseason Vasquez would not be one of them.

 

I just don't get why people discount Vaz's very nice 60 PAs before he went on the DL and his 2017 OPS and only look at his season OPS, yet they ignore Swihart's season OPS and gloat over a scattered 80-90 PAs of hot hitting.

 

If Swihart could catch worth a damn, he'd have started way more games than he did after Vaz went down (or before). It's not like Cora was playing him at other positions everyday.

 

The guy does not make pitchers comfortable when he's behind the plate. We have a couple starters who have never even seen a second catcher this year- let alone a 3rd like Swihart, so it's not some imaginary thing going on. It's real. DD and Cora know it's real. Pitchers know it's real and have said so for decades.

[Maxbialystock]

All three Sox catchers this season have OPS's between .500 and .600, so defense should be the measuring stick. I think Swihart is the best athlete of the three, but Leon and Vazquez have the better defensive skills. However, I just checked the catcher DWAR's for MLB and find that Leon is at .8 and the other two tied at 0.0.

[Bellhorn04]

I just don't get why people discount Vaz's very nice 60 PAs before he went on the DL and his 2017 OPS and only look at his season OPS, yet they ignore Swihart's season OPS and gloat over a scattered 80-90 PAs of hot hitting.

 

Agree 100%. Very biased approach.

[moonslav59]

All three Sox catchers this season have OPS's between .500 and .600, so defense should be the measuring stick. I think Swihart is the best athlete of the three, but Leon and Vazquez have the better defensive skills. However, I just checked the catcher DWAR's for MLB and find that Leon is at .8 and the other two tied at 0.0.

 

dWAR does not cover catcher-pitcher relationship and comfort level.

 

Vaz has had a defensive slump this year. I think he'll do better going forward.

 

I don't have the same hopes for Swihart's defense and pitcher relationships.

[mvp 78]

I just don't get why people discount Vaz's very nice 60 PAs before he went on the DL and his 2017 OPS and only look at his season OPS, yet they ignore Swihart's season OPS and gloat over a scattered 80-90 PAs of hot hitting.

 

Because Swihart is cuter.

[FredLynn]

I just don't get why people discount Vaz's very nice 60 PAs before he went on the DL and his 2017 OPS and only look at his season OPS, yet they ignore Swihart's season OPS and gloat over a scattered 80-90 PAs of hot hitting.

 

If Swihart could catch worth a damn, he'd have started way more games than he did after Vaz went down (or before). It's not like Cora was playing him at other positions everyday.

 

The guy does not make pitchers comfortable when he's behind the plate. We have a couple starters who have never even seen a second catcher this year- let alone a 3rd like Swihart, so it's not some imaginary thing going on. It's real. DD and Cora know it's real. Pitchers know it's real and have said so for decades.

 

I am assigning less importance to Swihart's stats before he was given a chance to play regularly. I believe we stipulated a while ago that it is very difficult to get into a good groove when you play one day and rest for the next three or four. On the other hand Vasquez was playing regularly until he got hurt and, unfortunately, he was having a bad year both offensively and defensively. For a long time he was just a black hole. Since Swihart was given a chance to play regularly his OPS is about 200 points higher than Vasquez's OPS. His defense has also been good.....and he has earned a job.

[Bellhorn04]

I am assigning less importance to Swihart's stats before he was given a chance to play regularly. I believe we stipulated a while ago that it is very difficult to get into a good groove when you play one day and rest for the next three or four. On the other hand Vasquez was playing regularly until he got hurt and, unfortunately, he was having a bad year both offensively and defensively. For a long time he was just a black hole. Since Swihart was given a chance to play regularly his OPS is about 200 points higher than Vasquez's OPS. His defense has also been good.....and he has earned a job.

 

Don't look now, but since August 1 Swihart has a .470 OPS.

 

Although he's had some good games and some timely hits, in reality he has done very little to establish himself as much more of an offensive threat than the other two.

[moonslav59]

I am assigning less importance to Swihart's stats before he was given a chance to play regularly. I believe we stipulated a while ago that it is very difficult to get into a good groove when you play one day and rest for the next three or four. On the other hand Vasquez was playing regularly until he got hurt and, unfortunately, he was having a bad year both offensively and defensively. For a long time he was just a black hole. Since Swihart was given a chance to play regularly his OPS is about 200 points higher than Vasquez's OPS. His defense has also been good.....and he has earned a job.

 

Swihart is not playing regularly, now, so I guess we should not count the good with the bad, then, right?

 

Yes, he's playing more, but not all that much.

 

Monthly PAs

21 April .390

27 May .470

35 June .348

38 July .1.091

36 August .479

5 Sept .400

 

He's had one good month with just 7 games started and 38 PAs.

 

[FredLynn]

Swihart is not playing regularly, now, so I guess we should not count the good with the bad, then, right?

 

Yes, he's playing more, but not all that much.

 

Monthly PAs

21 April .390

27 May .470

35 June .348

38 July .1.091

36 August .479

5 Sept .400

 

He's had one good month with just 7 games started and 38 PAs.

 

 

Good lesson in cherry picking! Lets looks at the most relevant stats-all of his stats since he started playing more regularly, since Vas got hurt, and all of Vasquez's stats. Why go month by month other than to support an illogical argument? Why not go week by week, if you want to go there...or game by game? Fact: Vasquez has had a bad year both offensively and defensively....and Swihart represents an offensive upgrade by 200 OPS points AND he is playing good defense.

[moonslav59]

Good lesson in cherry picking! Lets looks at the most relevant stats-all of his stats since he started playing more regularly, since Vas got hurt, and all of Vasquez's stats. Why go month by month other than to support an illogical argument? Why not go week by week, if you want to go there...or game by game? Fact: Vasquez has had a bad year both offensively and defensively....and Swihart represents an offensive upgrade by 200 OPS points AND he is playing good defense.

 

He had almost the same amount of PAs in June and August as July.

 

He starts playing a tiny bit more than before and does well in 1 of those 3 months.

 

I see you as the one cherry-picking.

 

Besides, 35 PAs a month is not a heck of a lot more than 27 PAs a month (May).

 

One could just as easily pick April 22nd as the time he started playing more, and he's at .527 since then. He only had 14 PAs in our first 20 games.

 

He's at .472 in his last 45 PAs. Vaz is at .530 his last 45 PAs.

 

Swi is at .670 his last 70 PAs.

 

Vaz is at .682 in his last 73 PAs.

 

Same cherry-picks for both.

[dgalehouse]

Agree 100%. Very biased approach.

 

Biases , of one sort or another , play a role in so many opinions. True objectivity is often hard to find.

[moonslav59]

I'm a Swihart supporter. I want him on the playoff roster, something some don't want.

 

I'm also a Vaz and Leon supporter, and I think many are overlooking the fact that he had a couple bad months and was doing very well, before he got hurt. Swihart had a very hot month and has sucked at the plate every other month, including two months with about the same PAs as his hot July month.

 

I do see Swihart as a better hitter and with more offensive upside going forward.

 

I think we should have all 3 on the playoff roster, so we can afford to PH for a catcher or two. We will not need to PH for any other position, except maybe Pearce for Moreland or Moreland for Pearce at 1B.

[sk7326]

Swihart easily makes the roster as a guy who can both catch and provide some backup value on the corners. Vasquez would be nice to have on the playoff roster - but I don't really think he justifies it, especially providing no real marginal offensive value at catcher. At least you pinch-hit Leon you are going to sub him with someone who can hit.