A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

@ByChrisMason

 

Devers is progressing well. Already ran the bases at 75 percent and he’s going to hit outside today.

 

To add to that, Bogaerts is available off the bench tonight and Cora expects him to start tomorrow.

 

Sale is expected to pitch in the 2nd game against the Jays.

[FredLynn]

Sorry, but I feel this is extremely absurd.

 

If anything, Leon would be traded or phantom DL'd, or Swihart would be traded.

 

Vaz is the starting catcher until Swihart shows he can do well for months and months- not a 32 PA stretch spread over 30 days.

 

Sorry, but this is delusional. Vasquez is having a bad year by any measure-in fact, a REALLY bad year. You are stuck on his 2017 performance where he hit .290/.735 and had a dWAR of +.3. This year is totally different: he is at .213/.548/-0.2. If Swihart continues to perform HE is our starting catcher. He is better offensively, decent defensively, and can also run, something neither of our other catchers can do. In addition, he can play multiple positions. All these facts make Vasquez expendable on the playoff roster-IF Swihart continues to perform.

[moonslav59]

I would say that Leon is our No1 catcher from here on out this season. The battle to join him is between Vas and Swilhart.

 

Before Vaz got hurt, he was the clear #1 catcher and had an .860 OPS in the month before his injury.

[Jasonbay44]

Before Vaz got hurt, he was the clear #1 catcher and had an .860 OPS in the month before his injury.

 

and a -1.0 WAR, with mediocre offense and defense. He wasn't producing and had one little hot streak.

[moonslav59]

Sorry, but this is delusional. Vasquez is having a bad year by any measure-in fact, a REALLY bad year. You are stuck on his 2017 performance where he hit .290/.735 and had a dWAR of +.3. This year is totally different: he is at .213/.548/-0.2. If Swihart continues to perform HE is our starting catcher. He is better offensively, decent defensively, and can also run, something neither of our other catchers can do. In addition, he can play multiple positions. All these facts make Vasquez expendable on the playoff roster-IF Swihart continues to perform.

 

Why does Swihart's 32 PA sampel size get you all excited, but Vaz's 60 PA sample size before his injury after a full 2017 decent hitting season means next to nothing?

 

To me, it's all about hope and higher ceiling. Swihart has had a long time to prove he could hit like we all hoped he could. Sorry, but I'm not convinced over a 32 PA sample size spread out over 30 days. I'm not saying Swihart cannot win the job, but to claim Vaz is now expendable based on the tiniest of sample sizes and some stats that show Vaz has been weak defensively over the first 3 months on 2018 is just not my idea of making key decision.

 

Yes, Vaz gotoff to a horrible start, as did Swihart, but he was showing signs of turning it around before he got hurt.

 

Vaz is still our #1 catcher. The DL has not changed that. No 32 PA sample size by our 3rd string catcher will change that either. If Swihart plays 60% of the games at catcher this month and hits .860, then maybe some depth chart adjustments might be considered (notice the words maybe and might).

 

Thinking any GM would jump the 3rd string catcher for hitting well over 32 PAs and make his number one catcher expendable after hitting .860 over his last 60 PAs is what is truly delusional.

Edited August 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

and a -1.0 WAR, with mediocre offense and defense. He wasn't producing and had one little hot streak.

 

Again, it's ALL about most recent sample sizes with you, except when it comes to Vaz's last month.

 

His "little hot streak" was nearly twice the length of Swihart's tiny hot streak.

[moonslav59]

and a -1.0 WAR, with mediocre offense and defense. He wasn't producing and had one little hot streak.

 

What was Swihart's WAR from April 1 to June 30th?

[Jasonbay44]

Again, it's ALL about most recent sample sizes with you, except when it comes to Vaz's last month.

 

His "little hot streak" was nearly twice the length of Swihart's tiny hot streak.

 

Vazquez also got double the AB's Swihart did. It is not always about small sample sizes. I have said I've never been a Vazquez fan. I like Leon, and would rather have Leon/Swihart combo and trade Vazquez. Swihart is more versatile and I believe is the better hitter. If Vazquez isn't playing elite defense, he's useless.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Vaz was just having a defensive slump. Those do happen.

 

I refuse to believe Vaz is no longer a more than plus defensive catcher. He may not be "elite", but I think he's close, despite his 2018 blip.

 

I agree Swihart shows more versatility, and I've been arguing we try Swihart at different positions from before we actually started doing it.

 

I definitely feel Swihart has way more upside on offense than Vaz & Leon combined, but he has yet to prove it. Both Leon and Vaz have had longer stretches of hitting better than Swihart's one longer glimpse of good hitting back in 2015 (.712).

 

Swihart hit .840 way back in 2015 at AA. For that, everybody has been all gah gah for years.

.539 in 2017 in AAA 9212 PAs)

.575 in 2017 in Gulf (38 PA)

.720 in 2016 in 74 PAs MLB

.655 in 2016 AAA

.738 in 2015 in AA/AAA

.649 in 2014 in AAA after his promotion from AA

 

Am I missing something other than his last 32 PAs?

 

Leon

.845 MLB (283 PA) 2016 Longer good hitting stretch than any of Swihart's

.644 MLB (301 PA) 2017

.604 MLB (188 PA) 2018

 

Vaz

.585 (184 PAs) in 2016

.735 (345 PAs) in 2017 Longer good hitting stretch than any of Swihart's

 

Again, I'm not arguing Leon or Vaz are better hitters than Swihart, but both have longer and better sample sizes of doing well than Swihart has had on OFFENSE.

 

Swihart has yet to prove he's a better hitter, and he has a long way to go to show he's better defensively.

.548 (218 PAs) in 2018

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Vazquez also got double the AB's Swihart did. It is not always about small sample sizes. I have said I've never been a Vazquez fan. I like Leon, and would rather have Leon/Swihart combo and trade Vazquez. Swihart is more versatile and I believe is the better hitter. If Vazquez isn't playing elite defense, he's useless.

 

I'm just asking why you are choosing to judge Swihart on just his last 30 days and 32 PAs but not Vaz and his last 30 days and 60 PAs?

 

If you go beyond the last 30 day sample size, Vaz and Leon both have longer and better stretches of hitting better than any long stretch by Swihart.

 

You are selectively looking at just Vaz and Leon's most recent 3 month sample size and comparing it to Swihart's 32 PA sample siz3 while ignoring his previous 3+ years of performance (or his April-June 2018 numbers).

[Jasonbay44]

I'm just asking why you are choosing to judge Swihart on just his last 30 days and 32 PAs but not Vaz and his last 30 days and 60 PAs?

 

If you go beyond the last 30 day sample size, Vaz and Leon both have longer and better stretches of hitting better than any long stretch by Swihart.

 

You are selectively looking at just Vaz and Leon's most recent 3 month sample size and comparing it to Swihart's 32 PA sample siz3 while ignoring his previous 3+ years of performance (or his April-June 2018 numbers).

 

I'm not going off just one stretch. I think Swihart has the potential to be a very good offensive player and thought his issue was he was never given a fair shot. He looked pretty solid his rookie year and then was moved around, change positions, sent up and down, etc. I think he is the more talented player and would rather keep him around. I also like Swihart over Vazquez because he has a very rare skill set. How many catchers can play all over the field, steal bases and be used as a pinch runner? Swihart has some unique skills and can do a lot on the field. Does Vazquez do anything better than Leon? I don't think so. Which is why I prefer Leon for his defense, and Swihart for his skillset/offensive skills. I just don't see point of keeping both Leon/Vaz.

[moonslav59]

I'm not going off just one stretch. I think Swihart has the potential to be a very good offensive player and thought his issue was he was never given a fair shot. He looked pretty solid his rookie year and then was moved around, change positions, sent up and down, etc. I think he is the more talented player and would rather keep him around. I also like Swihart over Vazquez because he has a very rare skill set. How many catchers can play all over the field, steal bases and be used as a pinch runner? Swihart has some unique skills and can do a lot on the field. Does Vazquez do anything better than Leon? I don't think so. Which is why I prefer Leon for his defense, and Swihart for his skillset/offensive skills. I just don't see point of keeping both Leon/Vaz.

 

I think Vazquez hits better than Leon, although he didn't show it for the first 2 months of this year.

 

I think Swihart has been given more than enough opportunities to show he can play at the MLB level. We've bent over backwards to help him find a nitch.

 

He made the team due to being out of options.

 

We cut a $22M contract to keep him around, which I was strongly in favor of.

 

He's finally showing something positive- the only time since 2015. I'm pulling for him bigtime. I'd love to see him beat out Leon or Vaz, but it's going to take a heck of a lot more than 32 PAs and a 2 month slump by Vaz to convince me.

[moonslav59]

Great win tonight!

 

I guess the worries about our offense sputtering are put to rest.

[moonslav59]

I'm not going off just one stretch....

 

So you thought Swihart was our #1 catcher and Vaz was "expendable" a month ago?

[oldtimer]

Great win tonight!

 

I guess the worries about our offense sputtering are put to rest.

 

Seeing the top of the order hit was a great thing and timely for the first Yankee game. Keep it up and now Bogaerts can get going tomorrow. Maybe Severino will have command issues tomorrow and we can take advantage of his slippage as during his previous 4 games. We still need a good game from Porcello.

[oldtimer]

Kinsler had a terrific defensive outing tonight against the Yankees. What a big turnaround from Nunez. He also hit well tonight. Great pickup by DD

[Larry Cook]

I do not think our offense has been struggling post all star game, but we have run into some good pitching.

 

Health over the next two months is key for us finishing strong.

[moonslav59]

I do not think our offense has been struggling post all star game, but we have run into some good pitching.

 

Health over the next two months is key for us finishing strong.

 

We also should have an infusion of returning players soon...

 

Devers

 

Sale

 

Wright

 

Vaz

 

Maybe ERod

 

Slight possibility on Pedey

 

[iortiz]

We also should have an infusion of returning players soon...

 

Devers

 

Sale

 

Wright

 

Vaz

 

Maybe ERod

 

Slight possibility on Pedey

 

The kind of problem you want to have when all return and figure out who to line up.

[Hitch]

Made a statement tonight! If we can get at Severino in tomorrow night's game we can break their spirt in the rest of the series.

[SoxHop]

Made a statement tonight! If we can get at Severino in tomorrow night's game we can break their spirt in the rest of the series.

 

What is best in life?

 

To crush your enemies. See them driven before you. And to hear the lamentations of their women

[moonslav59]

Top AL Teams

 

76-34 BOS

Best record in MLB. Best record in Sox history to date. We have 6 players over .800, including 4 over .885.

Batting splits: .808 v RHPs and .735 v LHPs/ .835 H and .748 A

1-2 slots .902 (.374 OBP)

3-6 slots .833 (80 HRs)

7-9 slots .644 (22 HRs)

 

68-39 NYY (-6.5)

NY has 10 players with 8 or more HRs. They have a super strong and deep pen, but their rotation has been suspect all year and sputtering of late.

Batting splits: .775 v RHPs and .839 vs LHPs/ .829 H and .754 A

1-2 slots .845 (.364 OBP)

3-6 slots .811 (84 HRs)

7-9 slots .733 (41 HRs)

 

69-41 HOU

HOU has 3 SP'ers with an ERA under 2.90 and 2 others under 4.06. They seem to have many more holes than last year.

Batting splits: .749 v RHPs and .787 vs LHPs/ .724 H and .795 A

1-2 slots .818 (.348 OBP)

3-6 slots .777 (59 HRs)

7-9 slots .697 (39 HRs)

 

Both the Yanks and Astros hit lefties better than righties.

 

59-48 CLE

Don't count these guys out. They have 3 guys over .798 with 24+ HRs. They also have 4 SP'ers with an ERA under 3.66.

 

_________

63-45 SEA

64-46 OAK

 

56-53 TBR (-7.5 from WC)

 

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

We also should have an infusion of returning players soon...

 

Devers

 

Sale

 

Wright

 

Vaz

 

Maybe ERod

 

Slight possibility on Pedey

 

 

The news is good on Rodriguez--a bullpen session on Sunday!!

 

Rodriguez (ankle) managed to throw without a boot on flat ground at Fenway Park on Thursday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.

 

Rodriguez has been on the shelf with a right ankle sprain since July 15, but he's made significant progress of late, as he finally shed his walking boot. He's expected to return within the next few weeks and figures to increase his throwing intensity accordingly. The next test for Rodriguez will be throwing off a mound: he's slated to toss a bullpen session Sunday, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-eduardo-rodriguez-throws-without-boot/

Edited August 3, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Boston Globe reported that Devers and Sale will come off the DL next week.

[Spudboy]

What is best in life?

 

To crush your enemies. See them driven before you. And to hear the lamentations of their women

 

No. f***ing the s*** out of the women after the victory ball.

[moonslav59]

What's the news on Wright?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What's the news on Wright?

 

There seems to be more confusion surrounding Wright, more uncertainty with the knee--maybe he will come back, maybe he won't. I found a few recent articles:

 

https://nesn.com/2018/08/steven-wright-injury-workload-too-much-too-soon-on-pitchers-injured-knee/

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-steven-wright-participating-in-baseball-activities/

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/08/steven_wright_injury_boston_re_10.html

 

If Wright does come back, it sounds like he will probably pitch from the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

There seems to be more confusion surrounding Wright, more uncertainty with the knee--maybe he will come back, maybe he won't. I found a few recent articles:

 

https://nesn.com/2018/08/steven-wright-injury-workload-too-much-too-soon-on-pitchers-injured-knee/

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-steven-wright-participating-in-baseball-activities/

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/08/steven_wright_injury_boston_re_10.html

 

If Wright does come back, it sounds like he will probably pitch from the bullpen.

 

Thanks for the updates.

 

I've always been very high on Wright. His injuries always seem to get in the way. I'm hopeful we see a healthy Wright this season.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Made a statement tonight! If we can get at Severino in tomorrow night's game we can break their spirt in the rest of the series.

 

That really was a statement game. I mean they embarrassed the Yanks. Stealing bases at will, once with the pitcher holding the ball. Scoring on a run down, scoring on a ground ball to the first baseman with nobody covering, then banging out 19 hits, 10 for extra bases. Hell CC was throwing such crap that was fouled off, he was lucky to only give up 2 in 3.

 

Good times last night for sure.

[Emp9]

Kinsler’s defense was jaw-dropping last night and I loved his rbi hit over and through the shift. Pearce’s monster game he’ll remember forever. JBJ, who’s great slide was the turning point (If I had to pick a turning point). JBJ has made that type of slide before. He’s really good at that. Creating enough distance from the catcher to have a chance. That’s before one even mentions our usual suspects of Betts, Beni, JD. It’s funny how that game was supposed to be a Sale start originally, no Bogaerts or Devers, spotting them 3 then 4 runs from the get-go, turns into the funnest game of the season.