A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

JBJ is now over .650. He's at .784 the last 28days. I'm hopeful this will be a long and steady stretch.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is now over .650. He's at .784 the last 28days. I'm hopeful this will be a long and steady stretch.

 

He was at .510 on May 12th and has been pretty steadily bringing up his OPS. This is not a one month white hot stretch like his history but rather a 10 week stretch of good hitting

[vegasbob]

On paper, our pen has done very well for two years. In some ways it seems like they have been under appreciated or over performing and not getting the respect they have deserved.

 

That being said, I sure would like to see us add a solid set up guy.

 

No disagreement, and the stats show up well on paper and the W column is the best in MLB. I think one reason fans are particularly critical of their own "idiot slackers" is because they see them play over a 100 times , if not 162, times a year with all warts and blemishes exposed. You typically don't see other teams except when opposing your guys. Reading headlines only about everyone else's super heroes can warp the perception. But perception isn't reality.

 

That said, it wouldn't hurt to get one more consistent guy in the pen. Joe Kelly may come back, but his trend is notr good and he may be thinking too much.

[Spudboy]

JBJ is now over .650. He's at .784 the last 28days. I'm hopeful this will be a long and steady stretch.

 

I imagine that we all have our fingers crossed.

[Spudboy]

He was at .510 on May 12th and has been pretty steadily bringing up his OPS. This is not a one month white hot stretch like his history but rather a 10 week stretch of good hitting

 

Keep talking Moon. You have me almost convinced!

[moonslav59]

A 10+ week stretch is already one of his longest runs of good hitting.

[cp176]

He was at .510 on May 12th and has been pretty steadily bringing up his OPS. This is not a one month white hot stretch like his history but rather a 10 week stretch of good hitting

 

It is good for sure to see him putting some hits up. I know that there are some great fielding outfielders in the game today but watching Bradley closely - the jumps he gets - the angles he takes - the respect his teammates give him when in comes to center field priority - his speed - and his cannon for an arm - it is very hard for me to imagine anyone being better. I go as far back as Gary Gieger. JBJ is the best centerfielder I have seen playing for the Sox. I used to think Freddie but he is going to have to hold down the number 2 spot in my mind from now on. Keep on hitting JBJ.

[jung]

As long as he pays head to the golden 2018 JBJ rule....GO OPPO, he has every chance to ultimately have a decent 2018 by the end. However, we must bear in mind that he has no shot at anything on the inner 3rd of the plate whether he is trying to go oppo or not as we could plainly see by the Rodney AB, bases loaded the other night. I am sort of amazed that he has finally after a few instances of trying to go back to his usual AB's after oppo success he appears now to have finally gotten the message that going oppo is really all he can do from where he is today.

 

Once we get to the post season I am not really sure what JBJ will do. But for now, he has to keep going oppo to have any shot at anything at all.

[Spudboy]

It is good for sure to see him putting some hits up. I know that there are some great fielding outfielders in the game today but watching Bradley closely - the jumps he gets - the angles he takes - the respect his teammates give him when in comes to center field priority - his speed - and his cannon for an arm - it is very hard for me to imagine anyone being better. I go as far back as Gary Gieger. JBJ is the best centerfielder I have seen playing for the Sox. I used to think Freddie but he is going to have to hold down the number 2 spot in my mind from now on. Keep on hitting JBJ.

 

I agree.

 

I have been watching since Jose Tartebul.

 

JBJ is the best defensive CF I have seen play for the Sox.

[Larry Cook]

Bradley putting together some good at bats today against the twinkies.

[a700hitter]

People can't find the game thread tonight. LOL!!!

[moonslav59]

JBJ is up to .666. What a devil!

 

👹

[cp176]

I agree.

 

I have been watching since Jose Tartebul.

 

JBJ is the best defensive CF I have seen play for the Sox.

 

Jose "the throw" Tartabull. You young folk didn't get to see Williams - Gieger - Jenson.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ is up to .666. What a devil!

 

 

Last 25 games - .929 OPS and 23 RBI

[OH FOY]

He'll be going against a good Pitcher today, important, he hits quality Pitching. And again, if he doesn't all I want JBJ do is just get on Base anyway he can, for Mookie. On base to me more important. Count walks as hits.

Don't get me wrong hits are beautiful thing, but if he can even battle a walk in his at bat, he'll just flip the Line-up, with 3 great hitters coming up that drive in Runs, even with 2 Outs.

Edited July 29, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Here's JBJ stats according to ESPN.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32362/jackie-bradley-jr

[moonslav59]

He'll be going against a good Pitcher today, important, he hits quality Pitching. And again, if he doesn't all I want JBJ do is just get on Base anyway he can, for Mookie. On base to me more important. Count walks as hits.

Don't get me wrong hits are beautiful thing, but if he can even battle a walk in his at bat, he'll just flip the Line-up, with 3 great hitters coming up that drive in Runs, even with 2 Outs.

 

4 times on base last night with 2 big this (at the time).

[Nick]

Hanley $22M, Pom $8.5M, Kelly $3.825M, 9M increase in luxury tax......that should be enough to sign Kimbrel, Eovaldi and take care of arbitration increases. I like Eovaldi's stuff. Plus he'll balance out lefty/righty combo.

[Nick]

We have the best OF with Betts, JBJ and Beni. Throw in JD as the 4th OF and it's a solid unit.

 

This team has been truly amazing. I'm surprised when we lose. Thornburg pitching better of late is very encouraging news.

Edited July 29, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Hanley $22M, Pom $8.5M, Kelly $3.825M, 9M increase in luxury tax......that should be enough to sign Kimbrel, Eovaldi and take care of arbitration increases. I like Eovaldi's stuff. Plus he'll balance out lefty/righty combo.

 

It's not quite that simple, but we probably can keep Eovaldi & Kimbel and stay just below the max line once again as the taxes rise again due to consecutive years clause.

[notin]

It's not quite that simple, but we probably can keep Eovaldi & Kimbel and stay just below the max line once again as the taxes rise again due to consecutive years clause.

 

Eovaldi’s track record for health makes him a risky keep, more so than most 28yo pitchers...

[Nick]

It's not quite that simple, but we probably can keep Eovaldi & Kimbel and stay just below the max line once again as the taxes rise again due to consecutive years clause.

 

Actually it is that simple....

 

I rather take a chance on Eovaldi than Pom. Because of his health issues in the past, he probably won't be that expensive. We still have Sale, Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright, Johnson and Hector. We're looking for a fifth starter. I'd be surprised if Eovaldi costs more than $10M/ year. Eovaldi could potentially replace Porcello and his $20M the following year.

 

Kimbrel is already at $13M. His incremental annual cost should not be difficult to meet. Problem maybe the LENGTH of the contract that DD is willing to pay. I doubt seriously DD will let Kimbrel go elsewhere. Again it's stupid to have Sale, Price, E Rod etc without a shutdown closer.

 

Kimbrel, Thornburg, Barnes, Hembree, Johnson, Hector, Wright, Workman, C Smith (2nd Half?) and not to mention plethora of relief pitchers in our minors should fill up the pen.

 

Should the Sox just say f*** it and trade for Andre Beltre and a set up guy?

[Jasonbay44]

Eovaldi’s track record for health makes him a risky keep, more so than most 28yo pitchers...

 

Agreed. It would definitely depend on the price for him. I would love to keep him around though..

[moonslav59]

Actually it is that simple....

 

I rather take a chance on Eovaldi than Pom. Because of his health issues in the past, he probably won't be that expensive. We still have Sale, Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright, Johnson and Hector. We're looking for a fifth starter. I'd be surprised if Eovaldi costs more than $10M/ year. Eovaldi could potentially replace Porcello and his $20M the following year.

 

Kimbrel is already at $13M. His incremental annual cost should not be difficult to meet. Problem maybe the LENGTH of the contract that DD is willing to pay. I doubt seriously DD will let Kimbrel go elsewhere. Again it's stupid to have Sale, Price, E Rod etc without a shutdown closer.

 

Kimbrel, Thornburg, Barnes, Hembree, Johnson, Hector, Wright, Workman, C Smith (2nd Half?) and not to mention plethora of relief pitchers in our minors should fill up the pen.

 

Should the Sox just say f*** it and trade for Andre Beltre and a set up guy?

 

I meant the finances.

 

Arb raises are going to be stiff....much more than I projected earlier this season due to phenomenal seasons by our arb guys.

 

Taxes go up the second year over.

 

Sale gets a $1M raise, or maybe $2.5M with a Cy Young in 2018

 

Losing Kelly without replacing him was not mentioned. We lose Pearce, too.

 

[moonslav59]

Agreed. It would definitely depend on the price for him. I would love to keep him around though..

 

I'm not singling you out, but my guess is, if Eovaldi has a bad start or two, some sentiments will change.

[Nick]

I'm not singling you out, but my guess is, if Eovaldi has a bad start or two, some sentiments will change.

 

True but....

 

1) He's got the stuff (I doubt his fasball is going to take a major dip at his age)

2) I always look for walk ratio. E Rod is still frustrating for me due to his pitch count issues.

3) I don't see his stuff being less than say Porcello's and we're paying him $20M.

4) He looks to be more of DD type of pitcher. A hard thrower.

 

Sox management has done a good job assembling 'team' guys. You hear it all the time now. "Good organization to play for."

 

From WEEi

Eovaldi's velocity was impressive, with his fastball averaging 97.4 mph and maxing out at 98.9 mph. He pitch-mix was as follows: 32 cutters, 28 fastballs, 10 sliders, seven curveballs and four split-fingered fastballs. He managed first-pitch strikes on 18 of his 24 batters.

Edited July 30, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

Arbitration eligible for 2019

 

M Betts $10.500 M 2 of 3

X Bogaerts $ 7.050 M 3 of 3

J Bradley Jr $ 6.100 M 3 of 4

E Rod $ 2.375 M 2 of 3

B Holt $ 2.225 M 3 of 3

Thornburg $ 2.050 M 3 of 3

S Leon $ 1.950 M 3 of 4

S Wright $ 1.100 M 2 of 3

C Smith $ 0.850 M 2 of 3

M Barnes $ 0.605 M 1 of 3

H Hembree $ 0.582 M 1 of 3

B Swihart $ 0.564 M 1 of 4

B Workman $ 0.564 M

 

Moon I have no idea how to project these out for 2019. Obviously we're not done with 2018. Probably significant raises for Betts, Xander, JBJ and E Rod.

 

Say, max increase of $30M for above contracts (that's about 100% increase.). Hanley and Pom's salaries would take care of it. $7M more for Kimbrel (put him at $20M per year) should be the max. Not sure if we have enough money to cover Eovaldi. I think we take the bullet and go over the max line. Just not concerned about losing 10 spots when you're drafting 30th. You are not going to get Benintendi's of the world when you're winning the division.

 

As far as replacing Kelly? Right now that's really not my concern with the way he's pitching. Brasier is out performing him.

Edited July 30, 2018 by Nick

[cp176]

True but....

 

1) He's got the stuff (I doubt his fasball is going to take a major dip at his age)

2) I always look for walk ratio. E Rod is still frustrating for me due to his pitch count issues.

3) I don't see his stuff being less than say Porcello's and we're paying him $20M.

4) He looks to be more of DD type of pitcher. A hard thrower.

 

Sox management has done a good job assembling 'team' guys. You hear it all the time now. "Good organization to play for."

 

From WEEi

Eovaldi's velocity was impressive, with his fastball averaging 97.4 mph and maxing out at 98.9 mph. He pitch-mix was as follows: 32 cutters, 28 fastballs, 10 sliders, seven curveballs and four split-fingered fastballs. He managed first-pitch strikes on 18 of his 24 batters.

 

The part I like the most here is that they have brought in team first guys who really want to be here. Not a lot of selfishness as far as I can see.

[moonslav59]

Arbitration eligible for 2019

 

M Betts $10.500 M 2 of 3

X Bogaerts $ 7.050 M 3 of 3

J Bradley Jr $ 6.100 M 3 of 4

E Rod $ 2.375 M 2 of 3

B Holt $ 2.225 M 3 of 3

Thornburg $ 2.050 M 3 of 3

S Leon $ 1.950 M 3 of 4

S Wright $ 1.100 M 2 of 3

C Smith $ 0.850 M 2 of 3

M Barnes $ 0.605 M 1 of 3

H Hembree $ 0.582 M 1 of 3

B Swihart $ 0.564 M 1 of 4

B Workman $ 0.564 M

 

Moon I have no idea how to project these out for 2019. Obviously we're not done with 2018. Probably significant raises for Betts, Xander, JBJ and E Rod.

 

Say, max increase of $30M for above contracts (that's about 100% increase.). Hanley and Pom's salaries would take care of it. $7M more for Kimbrel (put him at $20M per year) should be the max. Not sure if we have enough money to cover Eovaldi. I think we take the bullet and go over the max line. Just not concerned about losing 10 spots when you're drafting 30th. You are not going to get Benintendi's of the world when you're winning the division.

 

As far as replacing Kelly? Right now that's really not my concern with the way he's pitching. Brasier is out performing him.

 

Good points, but had I told you 4 weeks ago that we could replace Pom and Kelly in 2019 with Eovaldi and Brassier, what would you have said?

 

We will also need other pieces, like finding the next, cheap Pearce and maybe a 2Bman.

[moonslav59]

The part I like the most here is that they have brought in team first guys who really want to be here. Not a lot of selfishness as far as I can see.

 

Very true.

 

I also see more "fire and desire" than last year.