A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

Agreed, but then again, our 1B defense is improved.

 

Fair point.

 

Interesting to note that JD's UZR/150 in left field is now -16 and in right field it is now -41.6. Jackie's UZR/150 in center is 6.8. This is a lot different than they looked about a month ago. The only point I'm trying to make here is how quickly the numbers can change when you're dealing with small samples.

[Kimmi]

Do we really know he is telling the truth? I wouldn't trust anyone with a mustache reminiscent of a cartoon super villain...

 

Ha. Fair point.

[Kimmi]

Of course its true that the OF defense suffers with JBJ on the bench. But our offense suffers even more with him in the lineup. He is as close as it comes to an automatic out. If our catchers were hitting we could tolerate his incompetence offensively, but we cannot afford two black holes in the lineup every day.

 

Well, the trick is to determine whether the upgrade in offense outweighs the downgrade in defense, or vice versa. While I personally prefer a stronger defensive alignment, I do acknowledge that if the added offense outweighs the weakened defense, then that's the alignment the team should go with.

 

That said, I think many people underestimate the number of runs that a great defensive player can save over a mediocre or poor defensive player. Oftentimes, the runs saved are very subtle.

[Kimmi]

Why not?

 

I've seen a lot of comments on this like it's a fact. But the Sox are 30-14 overall and 23-10 (.696) with 2 black holes in the starting lineup...

 

As long as the other guys in the line up are doing their jobs, they can carry the 2 black holes.

[cp176]

Loved reading Bogaerts comments today with respect to JD today. His professional influence on these guys has been huge. it was a great signing for many reasons , the obvious and the not so obvious.

[cp176]

You're an enigma, cp, that's what you are.

 

no no no - My friends are rubbing off on me. (keep cards close to vest) - (once bitten twice shy) All words to live by!

[moonslav59]

As I have said I don't feel JBJ's defense takes away enough hits to justify his automatic out in the lineup. He may get hot but how long will that take? I think a lineup with JD in left and Bennitendi in center with a different bat in the 8 spot will work out better.

 

I'm not sure how much JBJ's defense and the downgrade at the other OF position and upgrade at 1B (assuming Moreland plays instead of JBJ) factors into the equation.

 

I'm a huge JBJ fan and still think he will end up with decent numbers by season's end, but I was okay with the benching and still am.

[FredLynn]

Why not?

 

I've seen a lot of comments on this like it's a fact. But the Sox are 30-14 overall and 23-10 (.696) with 2 black holes in the starting lineup...

 

I think we have seen what will happen when two black holes are in the lineup at the same time. For the past what-25 games or so-we are barely above a .500 team. And as much as I hate to agree with Jacko, we cannot continue to rely on JD and Betts absolutely mashing the ball all year long. We need at least 8 guys in the lineup who are threats.

Bradley should sit.

[notin]

I think we have seen what will happen when two black holes are in the lineup at the same time. For the past what-25 games or so-we are barely above a .500 team. And as much as I hate to agree with Jacko, we cannot continue to rely on JD and Betts absolutely mashing the ball all year long. We need at least 8 guys in the lineup who are threats.

Bradley should sit.

 

How many teams have 8 guys in the lineup who are threats?

[FredLynn]

Of course, I'd rather us not have 2 black holes in our line-up, and I'm not against trying to fix the problems, if it's still there in a month or two.

 

I do not think JBJ and our catchers will continue hitting between .440 and .550 for the rest of the season, so the problem may solve itself at some point, maybe even starting tonight.

 

We can fix the JBJ offense problem by hurting our defense and playing JD or Nunez in the OF. Pedey's return should minimize Nunez's performance to date. That leave just our catchers. I'm not "defending" thier .440 OPS, but I do feel their defense and rapport with our staff makes up for a big chunk of the negative we have gotten on offense. If they're still at .445 on July 31st, one, I'll be surprised and two, I may be convinced we need a change by then.

 

Unfortunately, there is no alternative to our weak hitting catchers other than giving Swihart a chance. There are, however, ways to improve the OF in terms of offense, by sitting a guy who has proven for a long long time now that he cannot hit. I do not think that will change.

[FredLynn]

How many teams have 8 guys in the lineup who are threats?

 

To be honest, I really don't care about the other teams. I ONLY care about making THIS team better, making THIS team the best it can be.

[FredLynn]

As long as the other guys in the line up are doing their jobs, they can carry the 2 black holes.

 

Well thats exactly the point: some of the other guys are overperforming to date.

 

Mookie is at 1.172 OPS, career .862

Bogaerts is at .918/.756

Moreland is at 1.005/.764

JD is at 1.051/.868

 

This isn't going to continue. That is why we cannot afford two black holes.

[moonslav59]

How many teams have 8 guys in the lineup who are threats?

 

Maybe, Houston despite some current player slumps.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately, there is no alternative to our weak hitting catchers other than giving Swihart a chance. There are, however, ways to improve the OF in terms of offense, by sitting a guy who has proven for a long long time now that he cannot hit. I do not think that will change.

 

I think we stick with JD in the OF more often than not for a while anyways. It might make it harder for JBj to find a groove, but as long as Moreland keeps himself over .900, I have no issues with JBJ sitting. I'll be cringing when balls are hit to the gaps, but the offense is greatly improved with a 1.000 OPS guy over a .550 one.

[FredLynn]

I think we stick with JD in the OF more often than not for a while anyways. It might make it harder for JBj to find a groove, but as long as Moreland keeps himself over .900, I have no issues with JBJ sitting. I'll be cringing when balls are hit to the gaps, but the offense is greatly improved with a 1.000 OPS guy over a .550 one.

 

I think Bradley has options. If that is correct, he should be sent down until he corrects his problems, if that ever occurs.

[moonslav59]

Well thats exactly the point: some of the other guys are overperforming to date.

 

Mookie is at 1.172 OPS, career .862

Bogaerts is at .918/.756

Moreland is at 1.005/.764

JD is at 1.051/.868

 

This isn't going to continue. That is why we cannot afford two black holes.

 

Those career OPS numbers can be deceiving. Betts can certainly stay over .900 or .950.

 

JD has been much better in recent years than .868. His first 3 seasons below .742 should not be part of his profile and expectations.

 

Bogey and Betts battled injuries last year and have early career lower numbers as should be expected. one could argue they should do better than their career numbers as the near and reach prime.

 

Moreland is a tough call. he was doing well last year before the toe injury, but the two season healthy sample sizes are still too short to begin to expect him to even end up over .825 or .850, let alone 1.000.

 

On the other hand, as these guys "come back to earth", couldn't we expect Pedey to improve on Nunez? Devers to find his groove? Beni to continue his rise in OPS? Vaz, Leon or JBJ to return to their career norm? In fact those 3 guys are about as far away from their career norms as Betts, Bogey and JD are from theirs.

 

Could Holt finish above .780? That's 80 above his norm.

 

Could the Yanks see some of their stars have off seasons like just about all of ours did last year?

 

I'm feeling good about our offense going forward. I think it gets better not worse.

 

[notin]

Maybe, Houston despite some current player slumps.

 

And they won a WS with Calos Beltran (OPS .666) at DH and Nori Aoki (OPS .694) in LF.

 

Not Bradley-esque, but certainly not "threats" in the lineup...

[moonslav59]

I think Bradley has options. If that is correct, he should be sent down until he corrects his problems, if that ever occurs.

 

I could see it, but for whom? Swihart?

 

I could see keeping Swihart around a little longer once Pedey returns, but if we won't play him, I'd rather have JBJ as a defensive replacement than a never-playing Swihart.

[notin]

To be honest, I really don't care about the other teams. I ONLY care about making THIS team better, making THIS team the best it can be.

 

Making this team better doesn't need to carry unrealistic expectations, does it?

 

And keeping the up-the-middle defense intact might be more important than the performances of the 8 and 9 spot hitters. It's not like the Sox were counting on Bradley and Vazquez the way the DBacks are counting on Paul Goldschmidt and his .697 OPS / 85OPS+

[notin]

And they won a WS with Calos Beltran (OPS .666) at DH and Nori Aoki (OPS .694) in LF.

 

Not Bradley-esque, but certainly not "threats" in the lineup...

 

The more I look at this, why would any team keep a DH with an OPS of .666? At least Bradley brings defense to the game...

[moonslav59]

And they won a WS with Calos Beltran (OPS .666) at DH and Nori Aoki (OPS .694) in LF.

 

Not Bradley-esque, but certainly not "threats" in the lineup...

 

Oh, I'm agreeing with you, notin. I was just saying the Astros probably come closest to having no black holes than anyone else. BTW, .666 and .694 are ooddles better than .513 (JBJ), .496 (Leon) and .441 (Vaz).

 

Also, last year's Astros saw Beltran with only the 7th amount of PAs on the team and Aoki 12th most. Beltran hardly played in the playoffs.

 

Their top 6 PAs guys were all over .817.

 

Beltran's .666 was 7th most.

 

Correa was 8th at ,941

Marisnick was 11th at .815

 

McCann and gattis were 9th and 10th at .759 to .767.

 

Very impressive.

 

They could easily have fielded a 9 man line-up with nobody below .767.

 

This year, they have 3 of their top 8 PA players between .615 and .670 and their 10th guy at .434. Their 11th is at .649.

Edited May 18, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The more I look at this, why would any team keep a DH with an OPS of .666? At least Bradley brings defense to the game...

 

They didn't keep him.

 

They also pretty much benched him late last year.

 

He only started 14 games from Sept 1st to Oct 1st.

 

He only got 21 total PAs in 3 playoff series last October.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

How many teams have 8 guys in the lineup who are threats?

 

How many teams have 2 regulars in their lineup hitting below the Mendoza Line? You don't have to be a threat to be an upgrade over a guy hitting .164

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Despite giving up 2 runs I was very encouraged by Steven Wright's outing last night. Are they considering giving Pom's starts to him or is he penciled in for long relief, in other word whenever Drew Pomerance starts?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Is it time to send Pomeranz to the bullpen for Wright or Velazquez?

 

His velocity is down this year:

 

The lefty's velocity remains down. His four-seam fastball averaged 89 mph and topped out at 90.4 mph today, per Baseball Savant. His two-seamer averaged 88 mph and topped out at 89.8 mph.

 

His fastball averaged 91.3 mph last year, per Fangraphs.com.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/05/boston_red_sox_shouldnt_give_u.html

 

I like the idea of moving him to the bullpen with the hope of turning him into a dominant one inning reliever. His fastball should play up in a one inning stint. Wright is useful as a relief pitcher, but he will never be a shutdown reliever, whereas Pomeranz could perhaps fill that role.

[moonslav59]

MLB Leaders

 

BA

.372 Betts

.358 Herera

.347 Machado

.345 JDM

 

XBH

33 Betts

30 Albies

27 Machado

26 JDM

 

TB

121 Betts

114 Machado

111 JDM

 

WHIP

0.71 Verlander

0.79 Cole

9. Sale 0.92

13. Porcello 1.01

 

Number of Pitches

1011 Verlander

996 Sale

22. Porcello 897

 

(So much for resting Sale more early on.)

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

How many teams have 2 regulars in their lineup hitting below the Mendoza Line? You don't have to be a threat to be an upgrade over a guy hitting .164

 

Under the Mendoza line in mid-May, though. If anything, the numbers suggest a guy like Vazquez will go on a bit of a hot streak and end the season hitting .240 or so.

 

That's the way I'm sure team management is looking at it.

 

Fans tend to just look at the current BA and freak out about it.

[Maxbialystock]

I guess it's just fun to talk about the lineup/hitting when it's the second best in MLB this year.

 

Not so much fun to talk about the rotation which now has Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Pom healthy with Velazquez and now Wright backing up--and they keep getting worse, not better. True, Price was terrific Thursday night, but Pom stunk again last night, Sale barely did 5 innings Wed, and ERod and Porcello stunk the two games before that. Isn't that four out of five non-quality starts?

 

But here we are focusing on how to fix the bottom third of the order or whether Hanley Ramirez should be dropped down or, my personal favorite, is the notion of keeping JBJ in centerfield because his fielding brilliance will fix our pitching woes. Yes, I know that last is an exaggeration, but not a big one.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Number of Pitches

1011 Verlander

996 Sale

22. Porcello 897

 

(So much for resting Sale more early on.)

 

 

Somewhere John Farrell is smiling.

 

Oh well, I guess Sale threw a lot less in the spring, before the games that count started.

 

But it's pretty hard to minimize the number of pitches thrown by your stud horse when you're in what shapes up as a season-long division battle with the Yanks and you have a short window to try to win it all...isn't it?

[notin]

How many teams have 2 regulars in their lineup hitting below the Mendoza Line? You don't have to be a threat to be an upgrade over a guy hitting .164

 

Quite a few at this point in the season. And hitting .160 in mid-May isn't the end to the season.

 

In 1997, Jon Valentin hit .160 in April but ended the season hitting .306, the only time he hit .300 with enough at-bats to qualify...