A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

In line with a realistic view of 2018, I will state the obvious and say that, even though the Sox lead the Yankees by 2.5 games and have a better run differential, the Yankees are already the better team.

 

I base that on 2 things. The most important is that the Yankees have a terrific won-lost record despite a slow start--they are right behind us. The other is that they have played the tougher schedule to date--14 of 28 games vs winning teams vs. our 9 of 29 games vs winning teams. We have played 8 games against the three MLB bottom feeders (Baltimore, KC, and Detroit) and the Yankees have played them 4 times.

 

I don't see the above as incontestible, but it's what I think.

 

 

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[moonslav59]

In line with a realistic view of 2018, I will state the obvious and say that, even though the Sox lead the Yankees by 2.5 games and have a better run differential, the Yankees are already the better team.

 

I base that on 2 things. The most important is that the Yankees have a terrific won-lost record despite a slow start--they are right behind us. The other is that they have played the tougher schedule to date--14 of 28 games vs winning teams vs. our 9 of 29 games vs winning teams. We have played 8 games against the three MLB bottom feeders (Baltimore, KC, and Detroit) and the Yankees have played them 4 times.

 

I don't see the above as incontestible, but it's what I think.

 

 

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Ever think that part of the reason the teams we played have a worse record is because we beat them by more than the teams the Yankess beat?

 

[Nick]

Game after game, hitting home runs have been critical to our success.

 

We can bury our heads in the sand but the fact remains we play in AL East and MUST HIT FOR POWER if we are to succeed in this Division. Yes, pitching still wins games but it sure is easier scoring runs with a homer.

 

I've argued that stringing together 3 hits does not guaranty a run at Fenway due to short left field.

 

DD did the right thing by signing Martinez. He has lengthened our lineup.

[Maxbialystock]

Ever think that part of the reason the teams we played have a worse record is because we beat them by more than the teams the Yankess beat?

 

 

I love it!

[Kimmi]

In line with a realistic view of 2018, I will state the obvious and say that, even though the Sox lead the Yankees by 2.5 games and have a better run differential, the Yankees are already the better team.

 

I base that on 2 things. The most important is that the Yankees have a terrific won-lost record despite a slow start--they are right behind us. The other is that they have played the tougher schedule to date--14 of 28 games vs winning teams vs. our 9 of 29 games vs winning teams. We have played 8 games against the three MLB bottom feeders (Baltimore, KC, and Detroit) and the Yankees have played them 4 times.

 

I don't see the above as incontestible, but it's what I think.

 

 

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.....

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The Yankees had a hot streak where they've won 9 in a row. I don't see how that's any different than our hot streak. They will not be able to maintain that any more than the Red Sox were able to maintain theirs. The Sox still lead the division.

 

The Yankees don't scare me.

[harmony]

Ever think that part of the reason the teams we played have a worse record is because we beat them by more than the teams the Yankess beat?

 

I found the early World Series odds interesting:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[moonslav59]

Sox and their opponents

 

4-2 vs TBR .333 - .478 TBR vs others 11-12

3-0 vs BAL .000 - .308 BAL vs others 8-18

3-0 vs LAA .000 - .654 LAA vs others 17-9

2-1 vs NYY .333 - .692 NYY vs others 18-8

2-1 vs TOR .333 - .593 TOR vs others 16-11

2-1 vs KCR .333 - .259 KCR vs others 7-20

2-0 vs MIA .000 - .407 MIA vs others 11-16

1-2 vs OAK .333 - .461 OAK vs others 12-14

 

Differential:

.654 LAA

.407 MIA

.359 NYY

.308 BAL

.260 TOR

.145 TBR

 

-.074 KCR

-.074 OAK

 

As you can see, the teams we beat by more than their record against others are the better teams like the NYY and LAA.

 

Let's now look at the NYY:

 

5-4 vs TOR .444 - .619 vs others 13-8

4-0 vs MN .000 - .456 vs others 10-12

3-0 vs LAA .000 - .654 vs others 17-9

2-0 vs TBR .000 - .481 vs other 13-14

1-0 vs DET .000 - .464 vs others 13-15

1-1 vs MIA .500 - .370 vs other 10-17

1-1 vs HOU.500 - .655 vs others 19-10

1-2 vs BOS .667- .778 vs others 21-6

1-3 vs BAL .750 - .200 vs others 5-20

 

Differential

.654 LAA

.481 TBR

.464 DET

.456 MN

.155 HOU

.111 BOS

 

-.130 MIA

-.550 BAL

 

Being undefeated vs 4 teams (including 1-0 vs DET) makes the yanks look better than the Sox in these comps, but look at the 2 teams that did better vs NYY than the rest of MLB.

Edited May 3, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The Yankees had a hot streak where they've won 9 in a row. I don't see how that's any different than our hot streak. They will not be able to maintain that any more than the Red Sox were able to maintain theirs. The Sox still lead the division.

 

The Yankees don't scare me.

 

We're 7-2 vs NYY, LAA & TOR

 

NYY are 9-6 vs BOS, LAA & TOR

 

[moonslav59]

Team HR Leaders

 

44 NYY (30 games)

42 TOR (30)

42 LAA (30)

40 CLE (29)

38 BOS (30)

38 SEA

38 TEX

37 COL

37 WSH

37 STL

36 MIL

36 AZ

 

Big difference from last year.

[Maxbialystock]

We're 7-2 vs NYY, LAA & TOR

 

NYY are 9-6 vs BOS, LAA & TOR

 

 

Yankees just took 2 of 3 at Houston, including two shutouts, which I think nicely balances us taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees.

Edited May 3, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[cp176]

Game after game, hitting home runs have been critical to our success.

 

We can bury our heads in the sand but the fact remains we play in AL East and MUST HIT FOR POWER if we are to succeed in this Division. Yes, pitching still wins games but it sure is easier scoring runs with a homer.

 

I've argued that stringing together 3 hits does not guaranty a run at Fenway due to short left field.

 

DD did the right thing by signing Martinez. He has lengthened our lineup.

 

I agree but even though I didn't like him much, I always thought that Earl Weaver had it about right. 3 run homers produce runs quickly.

[Maxbialystock]

Should Cora play Moreland more and JBJ less? I ask because right now the bottom third of the order is pretty weak. When that happens, Moreland goes to 1B, HanRam to DH, JD to LF, and Beni to CF, which diminishes the outfield defense.

 

The above is an honest question driven by the simple fact that JBJ's OPS is .567 and Moreland's is .984. Small samples, of course.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree but even though I didn't like him much, I always thought that Earl Weaver had it about right. 3 run homers produce runs quickly.

 

Weaver had some of the very best lines about baseball. Some are very wise, some are hilariously funny and some are both.

 

The one you're referring to is this: 'The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals and 3-run homers.'

Edited May 3, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Should Cora play Moreland more and JBJ less? I ask because right now the bottom third of the order is pretty weak. When that happens, Moreland goes to 1B, HanRam to DH, JD to LF, and Beni to CF, which diminishes the outfield defense.

 

The above is an honest question driven by the simple fact that JBJ's OPS is .567 and Moreland's is .984. Small samples, of course.

 

Strengthen the offense and weaken the defense. One of those 'pick your poison' deals.

[User Name]

In line with a realistic view of 2018, I will state the obvious and say that, even though the Sox lead the Yankees by 2.5 games and have a better run differential, the Yankees are already the better team.

 

I base that on 2 things. The most important is that the Yankees have a terrific won-lost record despite a slow start--they are right behind us. The other is that they have played the tougher schedule to date--14 of 28 games vs winning teams vs. our 9 of 29 games vs winning teams. We have played 8 games against the three MLB bottom feeders (Baltimore, KC, and Detroit) and the Yankees have played them 4 times.

 

I don't see the above as incontestible, but it's what I think.

 

 

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.....

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Way to logic there bro.

[Bellhorn04]

Way to logic there bro.

 

His argument, though, is that the Yankees have had a tougher schedule.

[User Name]

...and that's a weak argument.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees had a hot streak where they've won 9 in a row. I don't see how that's any different than our hot streak. They will not be able to maintain that any more than the Red Sox were able to maintain theirs. The Sox still lead the division.

 

The Yankees don't scare me.

 

I'm not exactly scared of the Yankees. There's not much emotion involved. But yes, I'm concerned that they may end up ahead of us at the end of the year. The way it looks right now we might win 98 games and it might not be enough. Under the previous Wild Card system that wasn't such a big deal, but it is now.

[jacksonianmarch]

After the ASB, we have 41 games out of 66 against utterly awful teams. That doesn’t include teams like Minnesota and Seattle who we do play but I anticipate they’ll end up at .500 or better at seasons end. Breaks down like this

 

66 games total

10 vs TB

4 vs KC

8 vs BAL

6 vs CWS

4 vs TEX

2 vs MIA

4 vs DET

3 vs OAK

 

I expect all of the above teams to be at or near the bottoms of their divisions. If the Yanks can be close come the ASB, then we win the division just due to the utter lack of competition faced afterwards. The gauntlet we are running now is just ridiculous and we are staying strong.

 

In May, we have 17 games against teams likely to be in contention for the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie's numbers obviously can't stay at this astronomical level, but here is how they stand today:

 

365/451/823 = 1274 OPS

 

Holy crap.

[moonslav59]

After the ASB, we have 41 games out of 66 against utterly awful teams. That doesn’t include teams like Minnesota and Seattle who we do play but I anticipate they’ll end up at .500 or better at seasons end. Breaks down like this

 

66 games total

10 vs TB

4 vs KC

8 vs BAL

6 vs CWS

4 vs TEX

2 vs MIA

4 vs DET

3 vs OAK

 

I expect all of the above teams to be at or near the bottoms of their divisions. If the Yanks can be close come the ASB, then we win the division just due to the utter lack of competition faced afterwards. The gauntlet we are running now is just ridiculous and we are staying strong.

 

In May, we have 17 games against teams likely to be in contention for the playoffs.

 

8 out of the remaining 14 AL teams (not counting ourselves) have losing or tied records.

 

That's 57%. Our schedules should look "easier" at times.

 

The NL has only 5 of 16 teams with a losing record.

[moonslav59]

1.274 Betts

1.041 Bogey

.984 Moreland

.984 JMart

.920 Holt

 

.836 HRam

.756 Devers

.737 Beni

 

.676 Nunez

.567 JBJ

.544 Lin

 

.476 Vaz

.390 Swihart

.261 Leon

 

We are just under 20% of the season being completed. Here are our current RBI totals times 5:

 

120 JMart

105 Devers

105 Betts

85 HRam

75 Bogey (missed time)

75 Beni

70 Moreland

 

HRs x 5

55 Betts

30 JMart

20 Devers & Moreland

15 HRam, Bogey & Nunez

10 JBJ

 

[moonslav59]

Our last 24 games (all 3 game series):

ATL 1st place

HOU 1st place

TOR 3rd place in toughest division

NYM 2nd place

NYY 2nd place

CLE 1st place

BAL last place

NYY 2nd place

 

That's 21 of our last 24 vs currently very good to excellent teams.

 

We better have a nice record before the last 24.

 

The Yanks' last 22 games (all 3 games, except TBR's 4):

@SEA 3rd in tough division

@MN 3rd in easy division

TOR 3rd in toughest division

BOS 1st

BAL last pleace

@TBR 4th place

@BOS 1st place

(13 of 22 on the road)

 

Only 12 of their last 22 games are against .500+ teams.

[Slasher9]

Should Cora play Moreland more and JBJ less?

 

no. absolutely not.

[Maxbialystock]

Way to logic there bro.

 

I watched big chunks of the Yankees winning 2 of 3 vs. the Astros, which is what drove my somewhat intemperate statement that they are better.

 

All along I have thought we have the edge in pitching, but the Yankees staff gave up exactly 1 run in 3 games in Houston. Last night Severino completely dominated them for 9 innings. Most surprising was the 2d game when Montgomery started and only went 1 inning. The Yankees bullpen then held the Astros scoreless for 8 more innings to get the shutout.

 

We know the Yankees have hitting, but the pitching is a shocker--to me anyway.

 

I certainly hope all the naysayers are right, that the Yankees are just lucky right now and will quickly fade away--like June swoon.

[mvp 78]

After the ASB, we have 41 games out of 66 against utterly awful teams. That doesn’t include teams like Minnesota and Seattle who we do play but I anticipate they’ll end up at .500 or better at seasons end. Breaks down like this

 

66 games total

10 vs TB

4 vs KC

8 vs BAL

6 vs CWS

4 vs TEX

2 vs MIA

4 vs DET

3 vs OAK

 

I expect all of the above teams to be at or near the bottoms of their divisions. If the Yanks can be close come the ASB, then we win the division just due to the utter lack of competition faced afterwards. The gauntlet we are running now is just ridiculous and we are staying strong.

 

In May, we have 17 games against teams likely to be in contention for the playoffs.

 

An utterly awful team playing against utterly awful opponents. Should be thrilling to watch.

[mvp 78]

I watched big chunks of the Yankees winning 2 of 3 vs. the Astros, which is what drove my somewhat intemperate statement that they are better.

 

All along I have thought we have the edge in pitching, but the Yankees staff gave up exactly 1 run in 3 games in Houston. Last night Severino completely dominated them for 9 innings. Most surprising was the 2d game when Montgomery started and only went 1 inning. The Yankees bullpen then held the Astros scoreless for 8 more innings to get the shutout.

 

We know the Yankees have hitting, but the pitching is a shocker--to me anyway.

 

I certainly hope all the naysayers are right, that the Yankees are just lucky right now and will quickly fade away--like June swoon.

 

So they are better because they won one series against the Astros. Got it. I guess that means the Twins, Rangers and Angels are also better than the Sox since they all won a series against the Astros?

[mvp 78]

Should Cora play Moreland more and JBJ less? I ask because right now the bottom third of the order is pretty weak. When that happens, Moreland goes to 1B, HanRam to DH, JD to LF, and Beni to CF, which diminishes the outfield defense.

 

The above is an honest question driven by the simple fact that JBJ's OPS is .567 and Moreland's is .984. Small samples, of course.

 

Yup.

[Bellhorn04]

So they are better because they won one series against the Astros. Got it. I guess that means the Twins, Rangers and Angels are also better than the Sox since they all won a series against the Astros?

 

They haven't won the series against the Stros yet. But if they blank them again today that'd be pretty impressive.

[OH FOY]

Duffy has now pitched 27 innings in Fenway and has allowed 8 HRS. I don't think good park for him.