Yanks v Sox, rivalry renewed

[Kimmi]

It's not even the ASB yet and the Yanks/Sox have a 15 game lead over the third place team. Pretty crazy.

 

That is crazy.

 

I remember early in the season when the Jays were in 2nd place, many people had them contending.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox and Yankees have the advantage of playing in a division with three losing teams that are a combined 41 games below .500.

 

The AL East is a cumulative 9 games above .500 while the AL West, with four teams at .500 or above, is a cumulative 33 games above .500. The AL East is 46-55 in head-to-head competition against the AL West this season.

 

Headed by the defending World Series champion and presumptive 2018 favorite Houston Astros, the AL West may set the pace this season.

 

Tampa, Toronto and Baltimore are not as bad as they look.

 

TOR 5-14 vs NYY & BOS/ 28-24 vs others

 

TBR 5-14 vs NYY & BOS/ 28-25 vs others

 

BAL 4-12 vs NYY & BAL/ 16-38 vs others

 

Last year:

 

Yankess had the leagues best record for an AL second place team (AZ was better).

 

TBR were 80-82- tied for best 3rd place record in AL.

 

TOR had the second best 4th place record in the AL.

 

BAL was tied for the best record by a last place team.

 

Yes, the AL West looks much stronger this year than the ALE, but the ALE is not as weak as it looks right now.

 

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox and Yankees have the advantage of playing in a division with three losing teams that are a combined 41 games below .500.

 

The AL East is a cumulative 9 games above .500 while the AL West, with four teams at .500 or above, is a cumulative 33 games above .500. The AL East is 46-55 in head-to-head competition against the AL West this season.

 

Headed by the defending World Series champion and presumptive 2018 favorite Houston Astros, the AL West may set the pace this season.

 

Not to knock your team Harmony, but the Mariners are 8 games above their Pythagorean W-L record with a 23-10 record in one run games and a mere +22 run differential, as opposed to the Astros at +158. I'm thinking they've been a tad lucky.

 

The Astros remain the team to beat. The rest of the division, while good, is nothing special.

[Kimmi]

The AL East has represented the American League in the World Series once in the past eight seasons.

 

I wonder what year that was?

[moonslav59]

Not to knock your team Harmony, but the Mariners are 8 games above their Pythagorean W-L record with a 23-10 record in one run games and a mere +22 run differential, as opposed to the Astros at +158. I'm thinking they've been a tad lucky.

 

The Astros remain the team to beat. The rest of the division, while good, is nothing special.

 

On that note, the Yanks are 3 games above their Pythagorean W-L.

 

The Sox are just 1 game over.

[illinoisredsox]

Tampa, Toronto and Baltimore are not as bad as they look.

 

TOR 5-14 vs NYY & BOS/ 28-24 vs others

 

TBR 5-14 vs NYY & BOS/ 28-25 vs others

 

BAL 4-12 vs NYY & BAL/ 16-38 vs others

 

Last year:

 

Yankess had the leagues best record for an AL second place team (AZ was better).

 

TBR were 80-82- tied for best 3rd place record in AL.

 

TOR had the second best 4th place record in the AL.

 

BAL was tied for the best record by a last place team.

 

Yes, the AL West looks much stronger this year than the ALE, but the ALE is not as weak as it looks right now.

 

 

I agree Tampa and Toronto are halfway decent, middle of the road type teams.

 

Baltimore is as bad as they look. That 16-38 (.296 was winning percentage) record against everyone else equates to a 48 win season if they didn’t play the Yankees and Sox. That would still get them into one of the worst records in the modern era (since 1900). Add in their record against the big 2 and they are teetering on 62 Mets territory.

[Maxbialystock]

Since this thread includes the Yankees, an observation.

 

I watched the Yankees at Nationals Park on TV last night and was impressed with Judge,who I honestly believe has been over-hyped. I specifically mean his fielding. Last night he made a very good sprinting grab of a foul fly that wasn't for from the right field line wall, so Judge went to his knees to slide and stop his forward momentum. But he did in a way that allowed the ball to hit his glove before his knees hit the dirt. Plus it was a long run to get there--the guys has pretty good wheels. He also got the last out of the game on a liner to deep right that he snagged on the run--a snag I doubt Mookie would have made because Judge is 6'8" to Mookie's 5'9" plus maybe 3" for more reach. Men were on 1st and 2d with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, so there was a good chance both runners would have scored to tie the game at 4 all if Judge doesn't make that grab.

 

To me height--except in a pitcher--isn't much of an advantage in baseball.

[Kimmi]

On that note, the Yanks are 3 games above their Pythagorean W-L.

 

The Sox are just 1 game over.

 

Yes, the Yankees have been somewhat lucky as well. They are 12-4 in one run games, which is crazy. OTOH, they are also 14-4 in blowout games. In other words, they are a good team that is also lucky, that luck being the only reason that they are tied currently tied with us.

[Kimmi]

Since this thread includes the Yankees, an observation.

 

I watched the Yankees at Nationals Park on TV last night and was impressed with Judge,who I honestly believe has been over-hyped. I specifically mean his fielding. Last night he made a very good sprinting grab of a foul fly that wasn't for from the right field line wall, so Judge went to his knees to slide and stop his forward momentum. But he did in a way that allowed the ball to hit his glove before his knees hit the dirt. Plus it was a long run to get there--the guys has pretty good wheels. He also got the last out of the game on a liner to deep right that he snagged on the run--a snag I doubt Mookie would have made because Judge is 6'8" to Mookie's 5'9" plus maybe 3" for more reach. Men were on 1st and 2d with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, so there was a good chance both runners would have scored to tie the game at 4 all if Judge doesn't make that grab.

 

To me height--except in a pitcher--isn't much of an advantage in baseball.

 

Judge is a surprisingly good fielder. It seems like every Yankees game I watch, he is making a nice grab. He's no Mookie, but he's pretty good.

[moonslav59]

I agree Tampa and Toronto are halfway decent, middle of the road type teams.

 

Baltimore is as bad as they look. That 16-38 (.296 was winning percentage) record against everyone else equates to a 48 win season if they didn’t play the Yankees and Sox. That would still get them into one of the worst records in the modern era (since 1900). Add in their record against the big 2 and they are teetering on 62 Mets territory.

 

I should have left the O's out of the conversation. .296 is not much better than .250.

[OH FOY]

Ever since Boone has used Betances for 1 inning he is pitching lights out. Last 28 days Opponents are hitting .049 against him, with a 0.69 ERA. If he gets it going this is a scary BP. Edited June 19, 2018 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, the Yankees have been somewhat lucky as well. They are 12-4 in one run games, which is crazy. OTOH, they are also 14-4 in blowout games. In other words, they are a good team that is also lucky, that luck being the only reason that they are tied currently tied with us.

 

Yet we have been surprisingly unlucky offensively. Sanchez is in a black hole. He's a hell of a hitter. Stanton hasn't been himself. Gardner lost his power. Didi's power and walks came in but his BABIP is way down. Hicks' BABIP is down to .264. Bird's BABIP is way down, especially for a guy with high K rates and HR rates. This offense isn't hitting and we have the best record in baseball. It will. And when it does, we will be crushing teams

[jacksonianmarch]

Ever since Boone has used Betances for 1 inning he is pitching lights out. Last 28 days Opponents are hitting .049 against him, with a 0.69 ERA.

 

It's like I'm a damn Nostradamus. Betances is absolutely lights out. Boone has tried to get more than 3 outs from Betances on 4 occasions. In the second inning, his ERA is 21.00. Within the first 3 outs of an appearance, Betances' ERA is 1.24. He hasn't been attempted to go beyond one inning in his last 11 outings. His line in those 11 outings is as such...

 

11.0IP 1H 0ER 6BB 20K 0.00ERA 0.63WHIP 16.4K/9IP

[Bellhorn04]

Yet we have been surprisingly unlucky offensively. Sanchez is in a black hole. He's a hell of a hitter. Stanton hasn't been himself. Gardner lost his power. Didi's power and walks came in but his BABIP is way down. Hicks' BABIP is down to .264. Bird's BABIP is way down, especially for a guy with high K rates and HR rates. This offense isn't hitting and we have the best record in baseball. It will. And when it does, we will be crushing teams

 

It's the kind of s*** that happens in this game. If you expect everything to live up to expectations you're not really paying attention to how MLB goes.

[Kimmi]

Yet we have been surprisingly unlucky offensively. Sanchez is in a black hole. He's a hell of a hitter. Stanton hasn't been himself. Gardner lost his power. Didi's power and walks came in but his BABIP is way down. Hicks' BABIP is down to .264. Bird's BABIP is way down, especially for a guy with high K rates and HR rates. This offense isn't hitting and we have the best record in baseball. It will. And when it does, we will be crushing teams

 

The same could be said about the Sox offense and our 6-9 black hole. They have been awful (although showing signs of life lately), yet the Sox are still winning games.

[bkzwhitestrican]

I wonder what year that was?

 

World Series Wins

 

Past 5 Years: Red Sox 1 Yankees 0

Past 10 Years: Red Sox 1 Yankees 1

Past 15 Years: Red Sox 3 Yankees 1

Past 20 Years: Red Sox 3 Yankees 4

 

We all live in the past. Some just live further in the past than others.

[Spudboy]

Judge is a surprisingly good fielder. It seems like every Yankees game I watch, he is making a nice grab. He's no Mookie, but he's pretty good.

 

Really? You trust your eyes to make this assessment?

 

Seriously, I have seen the same. Judge is no clod in RF.

[illinoisredsox]

Really? You trust your eyes to make this assessment?

 

Seriously, I have seen the same. Judge is no clod in RF.

 

He’s an athlete, no doubt about that. Had he chosen a different sport, he probably would be a great tight end (at worst, a left tackle) in football or a power forward in pumpkin chucking.

[jacksonianmarch]

The same could be said about the Sox offense and our 6-9 black hole. They have been awful (although showing signs of life lately), yet the Sox are still winning games.

 

Not really. Sanchez is an all star level offensive C. Stanton is a reigning MVP. Those two guys have been down as have Didi's and Hicks' BABIP. It shows that our offense has not even come close to hitting its stride. Whether that happens this year is the question. When it does, we will be bludgeoning teams.

 

I wont be able to find any sox fan who would have told me that Holt, Nunez and your C spot would carry your lineup. Devers having a sophomore slump is pretty common. JBJ having a prolonged slump is also pretty common. Your team didn't expect the 6-9 to be a black hole, but you didn't expect it to carry you either. The guys struggling on our squad are expected to carry us. That's the difference

[Bellhorn04]

Not really. Sanchez is an all star level offensive C. Stanton is a reigning MVP. Those two guys have been down as have Didi's and Hicks' BABIP. It shows that our offense has not even come close to hitting its stride. Whether that happens this year is the question. When it does, we will be bludgeoning teams.

 

I wont be able to find any sox fan who would have told me that Holt, Nunez and your C spot would carry your lineup. Devers having a sophomore slump is pretty common. JBJ having a prolonged slump is also pretty common. Your team didn't expect the 6-9 to be a black hole, but you didn't expect it to carry you either. The guys struggling on our squad are expected to carry us. That's the difference

 

Sanchez is not far off being a sophomore himself, with about 175 MLB games played entering this season.

[mvp 78]

Not really. Sanchez is an all star level offensive C. Stanton is a reigning MVP. Those two guys have been down as have Didi's and Hicks' BABIP. It shows that our offense has not even come close to hitting its stride. Whether that happens this year is the question. When it does, we will be bludgeoning teams.

 

There's a reason they call them "career years" and not "well that guy signed with the Yanks and now just plays out of his mind for the rest of his lifetime years."

[moonslav59]

Not really. Sanchez is an all star level offensive C. Stanton is a reigning MVP. Those two guys have been down as have Didi's and Hicks' BABIP. It shows that our offense has not even come close to hitting its stride. Whether that happens this year is the question. When it does, we will be bludgeoning teams.

 

I wont be able to find any sox fan who would have told me that Holt, Nunez and your C spot would carry your lineup. Devers having a sophomore slump is pretty common. JBJ having a prolonged slump is also pretty common. Your team didn't expect the 6-9 to be a black hole, but you didn't expect it to carry you either. The guys struggling on our squad are expected to carry us. That's the difference

 

Our 6-9 hitters were not far from our other hitters last year. I'd venture to say they were closer than most teams could say.

 

We added JD and lost Pablo & Young. One could have easily expected a much better showing from our 6-9 slots. Now, onebigreason that is ture is that our 1-5 slots were not that great.

 

I'm still expecting better, and we've seen some life from those slots recently.

 

2017

0-1 slot .779

3-6 slots .744

7-9 slots .698

 

6 .750 (Bogey 173 PA, 118 JBJ, 76 Moreland, 73 Devers)

7 .693 (JBJ 149, Devers 69, Moreland 63, Vaz 57, Young 56, Rut 54)

8 .741(Leon 190, Vaz 174, JBJ 50, Pablo 46)

9 .640 (JBJ 148, Marrero 137, Vaz 67, Leon 61)

 

This year:

1-2 slots .920

3-6 slots .828

7-9 slots .604

 

6 slot .747 (Devers 141 @ .879, Nunez 80, Moreland 34)

7 slot .609 (Nunez 116 @ .546, JBJ 63, Holt 48)

8 slot .571 (Vaz 104 @ .603, JBJ 71, Leon 43)

9 slot .623 (JBJ 85 @ .662, Vaz 62, Holt 39, Leon 38, Lin 32)

 

With Moreland slumping, our 5 slot is in danger as well.

 

We really could use Pedey's bat or a Nunez/Holt duo to hit over .750.

 

While these numbers don't look all that good, they are better than what we've seen so far, except for Holt & Devers:

 

Last 28 days:

.719 Vaz (.915 last 14 days)

.691 Holt

.666 Devers (.847 last 14 days)

.664 JBJ

.659 Nunez

.632 Leon

[moonslav59]

Age & OPS

 

Less than 350 PAs in career before 2018

 

Yanks

21 .892 Torres

23 .820 Andujar

25 .734 Sanchez

25 .759 Torreyes

26 .953 Judge

26 .751 Austin

 

(Side note: should Jacko expect a "sophomore slump" for some of these guys next year or could some hit a rough patch this summer?)

 

Sox

21 .705 Devers

23 .925 Beni

25 1.118 Betts

25 .857 Bogey

 

 

[harmony]

Not to knock your team Harmony, but the Mariners are 8 games above their Pythagorean W-L record with a 23-10 record in one run games and a mere +22 run differential, as opposed to the Astros at +158. I'm thinking they've been a tad lucky.

 

The Astros remain the team to beat. The rest of the division, while good, is nothing special.

The FanGraphs projections have the Seattle Mariners falling just short of .500 the rest of the season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[moonslav59]

The FanGraphs projections have the Seattle Mariners falling just short of .500 the rest of the season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Red Sox projected to win 100.

 

Astros 105.

 

NYY 104.

 

No NL team over 93.

[Kimmi]

World Series Wins

 

Past 5 Years: Red Sox 1 Yankees 0

Past 10 Years: Red Sox 1 Yankees 1

Past 15 Years: Red Sox 3 Yankees 1

Past 20 Years: Red Sox 3 Yankees 4

 

We all live in the past. Some just live further in the past than others.

 

I'm good with going back 15 years. But no more!

[Kimmi]

Really? You trust your eyes to make this assessment?

 

Seriously, I have seen the same. Judge is no clod in RF.

 

To a certain extent. Truth be told, I verified what my eyes told me with the stats.

 

And truth be told again, if the stats had said otherwise, I'd have gone with the stats.

[moonslav59]

I'm good with going back 15 years. But no more!

 

4 in 15 would sound nice!

[Kimmi]

Not really. Sanchez is an all star level offensive C. Stanton is a reigning MVP. Those two guys have been down as have Didi's and Hicks' BABIP. It shows that our offense has not even come close to hitting its stride. Whether that happens this year is the question. When it does, we will be bludgeoning teams.

 

I wont be able to find any sox fan who would have told me that Holt, Nunez and your C spot would carry your lineup. Devers having a sophomore slump is pretty common. JBJ having a prolonged slump is also pretty common. Your team didn't expect the 6-9 to be a black hole, but you didn't expect it to carry you either. The guys struggling on our squad are expected to carry us. That's the difference

 

I didn't say they would carry the team. But you would expect them to all hit better than they have been. For all 4 of them to be hitting as poorly as they are/were is some bad luck.

 

And why is that Sanchez should be expected to break out of his slump but Devers shouldn't be expected to?

[moonslav59]

I didn't say they would carry the team. But you would expect them to all hit better than they have been. For all 4 of them to be hitting as poorly as they are/were is some bad luck.

 

And why is that Sanchez should be expected to break out of his slump but Devers shouldn't be expected to?

 

...and why wouldn't we expect Torres, Andujar and maybe others to start slumping during their first few hundred PAs?