Yanks v Sox, rivalry renewed

[jacksonianmarch]

This is the first year I have done this in awhile. The Yankees haven’t been favored for anything but mediocrity at the outset since 2013 when they came crashing down and missed the playoffs. After winning the WC and taking the Astros to the brink in the ALCS, they are poised to be true World Series contenders in 2018. With the addition of Stanton (and Drury) and the retention of CC and Tanaka plus full seasons from Kahnle, Gray and KRob, NYY looks ready for bear in a stacked AL.

 

The sox won the AL East two years in a row and addressed their biggest needs by bringing back Nunez and bringing in Martinez. They enter 2017 with some health questions with Pedroia and ERod already on the shelf and Price coming back from a year in his elbow after being relegated to relief duty by seasons’ end. If fully healthy, the sox have the squad to win it all as well.

 

Projected opening day lineups

NYY

1. Gardner LF

2. Judge RF

3. Stanton DH

4. Bird 1B

5. Sánchez C

6. Gregorius SS

7. Hicks CF

8. Drury 3B

9. Wade/Torres 2B

 

Boston

1. Benintendi LF

2. Betts RF

3. Martinez DH

4. Ramirez/Moreland 1B

5. Devers 3B

6. Bogaerts SS

7. Nunez 2B

8. Bradley Jr. CF

9. Vasquez C

[jacksonianmarch]

Position to position battles make little sense in determining who has a better lineup. So I’m going to do it based on projected lineup position

 

Starting at the leadoff spot. Beni and Gardy. Guys on the polar opposites of their career arcs, yet their production was nearly identical offensively. Both were 20/20 guys, both had reasonable defensive seasons and both had near identical triple slash lines. If they both replicate 2017, then they’re likely to be identical again. I anticipate Beni has more to show going forward. The question is, will Beni progress in year 2. Either way, for now it’s a wash with considerable upside towards boston and the possibility of a drop off for NYY

[jacksonianmarch]

Betts vs Judge. It’s like asking for Gold or Gold. Judge had the more impressive offensive season in 2017 and has more OBP and power potential. Betts has the potential for a higher BA and stolen bases. Betts took a step back in 2017 albeit still an all star caliber performer. If you remove defense, Judge has the upper hand assuming he can come close to replicating 2017. I’m going to do the same thing I did with Gardner. This is a wash for 2018 with upside to Judge if he can replicate his superhuman 2017

[jacksonianmarch]

JD vs Stanton. JD has been an absolute masher the last three years. Stanton has been the standard for power hitters since he entered the league. Both have injury histories. Both are capable of hitting 40+ HR in their sleep. Stanton is going to a far better hitting environment. JD went from a bad hitting environment to a great one in AZ and now in a great one again in Boston. Both guys project to have similar stat lines. Both should be absolute monsters provided good health in 2018. This is a wash again

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox 1b combo vs Bird. This is all about projection when it comes to the heavier hitting part of your platoon vs a healthy Bird. Greg Bird is a masher whose swing is custom tailored to Yankee stadium. Hanley Ramirez is a 30/100 player when healthy, yet he hasn’t been and now he is older. If Bird can stay healthy, he wins this by far. He’s a near .900 OPS guy with 30HR capability. Problem is, he hasn’t been healthy. Well, he is now, for now. I’m gonna give this another wash with Bird getting the upside should he stay healthy and play up to his capability.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sánchez vs Devers. This one has the capability of a wash depending on Devers reaching his potential, but Sánchez may not have reached his potential either. Sánchez is a perennial all star hitter with 40HR capability and the ability to hit for a high average. In this lineup with all the firepower above, this one goes to NYY

[jacksonianmarch]

Didi vs Bogey. This one used to be closer, but Didi has become what Xander could have been. Didi has been clutch, hits for average, is probably our best contact hitter and has hit 20+ HR two years running. This is solidly in our favor unless Bogaerts remembers who he could have been

[jacksonianmarch]

Nunez vs Hicks. This one is an interesting. Hicks finally delivered on his promise last year, but oblique injuries cut his season short. Nunez had a career season as well yet his knee ended his season prematurely. Nunez has more BA capability as well as his running ability. Hicks isn’t a slouch on the bases either. If fully healthy, Hicks has far more offensive capability as a power hitter with a solid eye. Nunez has more of a track record. I’ll take the upside in Hicks, but this one could easily swing Boston’s way if Hicks cannot replicate his awesome, albeit injury shortened 2017

[jacksonianmarch]

Drury vs Bradley. Very interesting. Drury is a power hitting infielder who hasn’t seen a full season on offense. He doesn’t walk and strikes out a fair amount, yet has produced solid batting average skills in his two seasons. JBJ has been middling for 2 seasons and awesome for 1.5. When he’s hot, he gets white hot. But his cold stretches offset this significantly. I think these guys wash each other out. Drury is still young and hasn’t played a full season yet. He’s got 20+ HR potential. JBJ has proven more to be a 15HR kind of guy who cannot hold an average, yet can show solid on base capability. Both guys have upside depending on how long Bradley stays hot vs if Drury takes off in the power department.

[jacksonianmarch]

The 9 spot.

 

Vasquez overperformed offensively. He’s never been a great offensive performer and I don’t anticipate he ever will. His .348 BABIP shows he’s likely headed for a .250ish BA. The Yankees have Wade and Torres. Anything for NYY at this point is projection. But both guys have talent. Wade is a speedster capable of stealing 30 bases and hitting for a high average. Torres is a future #2 hitter with high BA/OBP capabilities with growing power as a mid 20s HR guy. This isn’t a wash. I’ll take the Yanks uncertain yet talented 2b over a Vazquez who will likely hit .250 with no power or OBP.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox offense has improved with Nunez and JD coming on board. When Pedey comes on board, he might not actually improve the offense of it pushes Nunez to the bench. The Yankees offense was great and added Stanton while subtracting Holliday. Drury should easily replace and surpass Headley’s. The Yankee kids may not be better offensively than Castro, actually most likely will not be. A healthy Greg Bird adds a lot for us as well. Either way, on the whole, the Yanks improved also. I anticipate both teams will have very strong utility play come mid year with Drury likely going to super sub once Andujar is ready and Wade going to sub with speed once Torres is ready. The sox will have Nunez for the IF and with JD capable of playing some OF, it gives some redundancy. This should be a good year offensively for both teams. I think the Yankees will battle Houston for the #1 offense in baseball and the sox should be good enough to be top 5. Going to feel good having a rivalry all season long

[Nick]

I think we need to let the teams play it out on the field. I consider staying healthy part of the game. My concern is with health of our pitching staff. I'm sure that goes for the Yankees too. I'm not too comfortable with Pedey, Hanley and Moreland playing the entire season without visits to the disable list.

 

As good as Judge was last year, his trajectory is unknown. Was last season his 'floor'? That's a scary thought for the Sox fans. Can JD extend his production from year ago only playing 119 games and hitting 45 dingers to full season? Was last season his 'ceiling'?

 

Based on last year, Yankees will score runs. There's every indication to believe Sox will score more runs than last year.

 

Also know that Sox have won the Division the last two years.

 

COME AND GET US!

[Bellhorn04]

I think the starting pitching will likely be the deciding factor over 162 games.

[bkzwhitestrican]

If you extrapolate the Yankees 5-0 record so far in spring training through the end of the year, they're going to win at least 173 games between the regular and postseason. Simple mathematatics!

[mvp 78]

Rivalry? The Yankees can't even carry the BoSox jocks right now. The division is ours.

[Spudboy]

If you extrapolate the Yankees 5-0 record so far in spring training through the end of the year, they're going to win at least 173 games between the regular and postseason. Simple mathematatics!

 

Makes as much sense as using WAR to project wins.

[mvp 78]

Makes as much sense as using WAR to project wins.

 

When I average the last two seasons, the Yankees should wind up in second place. Those are the rules.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Why not use the last 4 years

[mvp 78]

Why not use the last 4 years

 

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez weren't on the team 3-4 years ago. Duh!

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m not sure there are many non sox fans who’d have the Sox ahead of the Yanks offensively.

[Kimmi]

Rivalry? The Yankees can't even carry the BoSox jocks right now. The division is ours.

 

!!!

 

End of discussion.

[baseball jones]

I’m not sure there are many non sox fans who’d have the Sox ahead of the Yanks offensively.

 

no not really,this is something only a yankee fan would say.

[Kimmi]

I’m not sure there are many non sox fans who’d have the Sox ahead of the Yanks offensively.

 

Fangraphs currently has the two offenses dead even in terms of runs scored.

[Kimmi]

In all seriousness, I'd have to give the edge to the Yankees to win the division.

 

But I wouldn't rule out the good guys.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Both teams are pretty similar. It would not surprise me if either/both teams finished with 100+ wins. But it will take a lot of things to go right for both teams in terms of health, players playing to their potential, and live chicken sacrifices.

[jacksonianmarch]

Both teams are pretty similar. It would not surprise me if either/both teams finished with 100+ wins. But it will take a lot of things to go right for both teams in terms of health, players playing to their potential, and live chicken sacrifices.

 

Fangraphs also thinks Judge is going to turtle and barely reach an .800OPS. He was terrible from the ASB to the last week of August and still ended up with a .938OPS in the second half. The guy has superhuman strength and an incredible eye. I think the eye will come in handy to a ridiculous degree this season as umpires should start calling his actual strike zone

[FredLynn]

I’m not sure there are many non sox fans who’d have the Sox ahead of the Yanks offensively.

 

I would agree with that assessment. I think the Yankees have more firepower in their lineup. If Thornburg can come back strong I would rate our bullpens about even. However, over the course of a 162 game season it is generally the starting pitching that rules the day, and IF our SPers can stay healthy I think the Sox have a decided edge over the Yankees in that department. Severino is good, but he is no Chris Sale; and assuming Price is healthy (yes, its a big assumption) he is easily better than Tanaka. Porcello is due for a much improved year; Pom had a great year last year and as a #3-4 SP he has to be one of the best. ERod, once healthy also has to be the best #5 in the league. We do need some depth, but only diehard Yankee fans would say that a healthy SP rotation for the Yankees would be better than a healthy SP rotation for the Red Sox.

[Kimmi]

Davenport projections has the Red Sox outscoring the Yankees 835 runs to 821 runs.

[Carpin]

I would agree with that assessment. I think the Yankees have more firepower in their lineup. If Thornburg can come back strong I would rate our bullpens about even. However, over the course of a 162 game season it is generally the starting pitching that rules the day, and IF our SPers can stay healthy I think the Sox have a decided edge over the Yankees in that department. Severino is good, but he is no Chris Sale; and assuming Price is healthy (yes, its a big assumption) he is easily better than Tanaka. Porcello is due for a much improved year; Pom had a great year last year and as a #3-4 SP he has to be one of the best. ERod, once healthy also has to be the best #5 in the league. We do need some depth, but only diehard Yankee fans would say that a healthy SP rotation for the Yankees would be better than a healthy SP rotation for the Red Sox.

 

If all of them stay healthy

 

Rotation Sox > Yanks

Lineup Yanks > Sox

[moonslav59]

I would agree with that assessment. I think the Yankees have more firepower in their lineup. If Thornburg can come back strong I would rate our bullpens about even. However, over the course of a 162 game season it is generally the starting pitching that rules the day, and IF our SPers can stay healthy I think the Sox have a decided edge over the Yankees in that department. Severino is good, but he is no Chris Sale; and assuming Price is healthy (yes, its a big assumption) he is easily better than Tanaka. Porcello is due for a much improved year; Pom had a great year last year and as a #3-4 SP he has to be one of the best. ERod, once healthy also has to be the best #5 in the league. We do need some depth, but only diehard Yankee fans would say that a healthy SP rotation for the Yankees would be better than a healthy SP rotation for the Red Sox.

 

If Carson Smith comes back strong, we may not need Thornburg. If both do very well, watch out Yanks!