2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

The only former Sox player ranked is Kopech at 11.

 

Many are post prospect, now.

[moonslav59]

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Jay Groome coming in at number 83 on the @BaseballAmerica Top 100 is the lowest the club's top prospect has ever ranked in that publication's ranking, dating back to 1990.

 

Wow!

 

Not to worry, the cliff naysayers claim our farm will be "replenished" in no time.

 

(Losing Flores did not help.)

[harmony]

The prospect-mania of the past decade is dying down.

 

Top prospects were overvalued for years as the low floors of many distant prospects offset their decent ceilings.

 

Many teams now place more value on an MLB-ready player with years of team control regardless of whether the player fits the arbitrary definition of prospect.

[mvp 78]

Many are post prospect, now.

 

As are Devers and Beni.

[moonslav59]

The prospect-mania of the past decade is dying down.

 

Top prospects were overvalued for years as the low floors of many distant prospects offset their decent ceilings.

 

Many teams now place more value on an MLB-ready player with years of team control regardless of whether the player fits the arbitrary definition of prospect.

 

It does seem like teams prefer to trade for more ML- ready players thyan far-away ones, but GMs still value high ceiling prospects.

 

We got 2.5 seasons of Pomeranz for Espinoza.

[moonslav59]

From soxprospects.com

 

Mexican Pacific League

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-velazquez.html

 

They Mayos de Navojoa trotted out game one winner Hector Velazquez (pictured) in the fifth game of their semifinal series against Jalisco. Despite a very strong effort by the righty, Navajoa dropped a 3-0 decision. Velazquez allowed just one run on three hits in five innings, striking out three without issuing a walk, and inducing eight groundball outs. Overall, Velazquez surrendered only two runs in 10 innings in his two starts in the semi-final series. Navojoa prevailed in game six to advance to the league championship series against Culiacan.

 

Velazquez is likely to start in game three on Tuesday if Navojoa holds to its rotation, with los Mayos in a 2-0 hole.

[Kimmi]

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Jay Groome coming in at number 83 on the @BaseballAmerica Top 100 is the lowest the club's top prospect has ever ranked in that publication's ranking, dating back to 1990.

 

Thanks Dave!

[Natick to NC]

How far away is Chavis in you're opinion ? Would it be out of the realm of possibility he replaces pedey ? And when.

[moonslav59]

How far away is Chavis in you're opinion ? Would it be out of the realm of possibility he replaces pedey ? And when.

 

Chavis might be ML ready by summer...

 

as a DH.

 

He might be ready by fall to play 1B.

 

I seriously doubt anyone in the organization is even thinking of Chavis playing 2B.

 

His defense was so bad at 3B, they are trying him at 1B. He's not playing 2B.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks Dave!

 

And Ben, for forcing Dave to trade so many prospects for pitching.

 

Yes, Dave could probably have traded less of them, but still, he had no choice but to make some trades for pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chavis needs to prove he can hang in AA before you move him to the bigs. He was an all everything in the Carolina league but on promotion to AA, he was a power dependent low OBP hitter. If he can show the high OBP and power combo he showed in A ball, then he will be an asset. As his defense is poor, he is going to need to show the ability to hit and continue to be a plus hitter to make it to the bigs. He was more enticing as a possible 3b than he will be as a 1b

[mvp 78]

Thanks Dave!

 

I'd rather have Sale, Kimbrel and Pom than the guys we gave up.

[mvp 78]

Chavis might be ML ready by summer...

 

as a DH.

 

He might be ready by fall to play 1B.

 

I seriously doubt anyone in the organization is even thinking of Chavis playing 2B.

 

His defense was so bad at 3B, they are trying him at 1B. He's not playing 2B.

 

Never say never. Devers was fast tracked last year. Chavis would have to continue his onslaught on AA pitching and maybe have a few weeks at AAA. Devers had a clearer path last year because of the gaping hole at 3b. They have the option to let Chavis mature a little more before bringing him up since DH/1b can be filled easier.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers kicked the door down. He wasn't fast tracked as much as he made them fast track him. His AA numbers were bonkers for a 20 yr old then he went supernova in 9 games in Pawtucket right around the time the Pablo adventure ended. It was the perfect storm. I think, to a man, Dombrowski would have loved to have kept Devers down in the minors last yr and brought him up this year in May to set his clock back. I think the kid is going to be a star. I don't have the same feeling around Chavis. I wonder if Chavis' power is real, and with his skills, his new power is his only solid trait

[moonslav59]

Never say never. Devers was fast tracked last year. Chavis would have to continue his onslaught on AA pitching and maybe have a few weeks at AAA. Devers had a clearer path last year because of the gaping hole at 3b. They have the option to let Chavis mature a little more before bringing him up since DH/1b can be filled easier.

 

Yes, Chavis could be fast-tracked, if HRam or Moreland bomb or get hurt.

 

I can't see Chavis playing 3B or 2B this year in Boston.

[moonslav59]

Devers kicked the door down. He wasn't fast tracked as much as he made them fast track him. His AA numbers were bonkers for a 20 yr old then he went supernova in 9 games in Pawtucket right around the time the Pablo adventure ended. It was the perfect storm. I think, to a man, Dombrowski would have loved to have kept Devers down in the minors last yr and brought him up this year in May to set his clock back. I think the kid is going to be a star. I don't have the same feeling around Chavis. I wonder if Chavis' power is real, and with his skills, his new power is his only solid trait

 

It might not be as "new" as people think. Chavis was injured early in his pro career.

[moonslav59]

Kinda scary when out top competition in the AL this year also has so many more top and or better prospects...

 

NYY: 6, 38, 41, 59, 77, 81

 

HOU: 10, 15, 62, 76

 

CLE: 20, 33

 

BOS: 83, 85

 

(Also, 6 of the top 21 prospects are in the AL East- none with the Sox.)

Edited January 23, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Kinda scary when out top competition in the AL this year also has so many more top and or better prospects...

 

NYY: 6, 38, 41, 59, 77, 81

 

HOU: 10, 15, 62, 76

 

CLE: 20, 33

 

BOS: 83, 85

 

It's not the best situation, that's for sure. But think of it this way, if they didn't call Devers up he'd be one of the top prospects and the picture would look much different. This stuff changes rapidly.

[moonslav59]

It's not the best situation, that's for sure. But think of it this way, if they didn't call Devers up he'd be one of the top prospects and the picture would look much different. This stuff changes rapidly.

 

True, but if the Yanks did not call up Judge and Sanchez, and the Astros didn't call up Bregman and...

[moonslav59]

Players 25 and under

 

Boston:

Betts

Bogey

ERod

Beni

Devers

 

NYY

Judge

Sanchez

Montgmoery

Severino

Torreyes

Bird

Frazier

 

HOU

Bregman

Fisher

McCullers

Correa

 

CLE

Ramirez

Lindor

Meritt

[Bellhorn04]

True, but if the Yanks did not call up Judge and Sanchez, and the Astros didn't call up Bregman and...

 

The Yanks are in scary good shape for young talent right now, no question.

[Carpin]

Kinda scary when out top competition in the AL this year also has so many more top and or better prospects...

 

NYY: 6, 38, 41, 59, 77, 81

 

HOU: 10, 15, 62, 76

 

CLE: 20, 33

 

BOS: 83, 85

 

(Also, 6 of the top 21 prospects are in the AL East- none with the Sox.)

 

Also the Rays have 6: 14, 19, 39, 45, 49 & 96

Those guys have 5 prospects in the top 50, somehow they find a way to develop impact players.

[moonslav59]

Also the Rays have 6: 14, 19, 39, 45, 49 & 96

Those guys have 5 prospects in the top 50, somehow they find a way to develop impact players.

 

They've had a lot of top 100 misses, though.

[Carpin]

They've had a lot of top 100 misses, though.

 

yep, but it's hard to argue against their method, it's tough to be a low market team in the MLB

[Kimmi]

And Ben, for forcing Dave to trade so many prospects for pitching.

 

Yes, Dave could probably have traded less of them, but still, he had no choice but to make some trades for pitching.

 

Making some trades is one thing. Depleting the farm is another.

[Kimmi]

I'd rather have Sale, Kimbrel and Pom than the guys we gave up.

 

I'd rather have a team that is competitive now and beyond the 2 year window.

[Kimmi]

Devers kicked the door down. He wasn't fast tracked as much as he made them fast track him. His AA numbers were bonkers for a 20 yr old then he went supernova in 9 games in Pawtucket right around the time the Pablo adventure ended. It was the perfect storm. I think, to a man, Dombrowski would have loved to have kept Devers down in the minors last yr and brought him up this year in May to set his clock back. I think the kid is going to be a star. I don't have the same feeling around Chavis. I wonder if Chavis' power is real, and with his skills, his new power is his only solid trait

 

Yup. Dave panicked.

[moonslav59]

yep, but it's hard to argue against their method, it's tough to be a low market team in the MLB

 

I totally agree. They've been very competitive per dollar spent.

 

They were masters of the system of gaining supplemental picks. Here's an example of them at their best (but note how many of these picks have not produced):

 

2011 Draft--10 picks in the top 60!

1 (24) Taylor Guerrieri (for losing Carl Crawford)

1 (31) Mikie Mahtook (for Rafael Soriano)

1 (32) Jake Hager

1S (38) Brandon Martin (for Soriano)

1S (41) Tyler Goeddel (for Crawford)

1S (42) Jeff Ames (for Grant Balfour)

1S (52) Blake Snell (for Brad Hawpe)

1S (56) Kes Carter (for Joaquin Benoit)

1S (59) Grayson Garvin (for randy Choate)

1S (60) James Harris Jr (for Chad Qualls)

2 (75) Granden Goetzman (for Balfour)

2 (89) Lenny Linsky

 

This was shockingly unprecedented, but largely squandered.

[moonslav59]

The Rays biggest strength is choosing the right young players to extend early and getting them to agree. They are also very good at choosing the exact right time to let players go by trading them or getting comp picks. Many of their past players have career years with the Rays and then go elsewhere and suck. Another thing they often get right is signing cheap (sometimes even journeymen) free agents who go on to have career years.

 

They may do better with lower round picks, but I listed the many top picks chosen in the legendary 2011 draft, and here are others:

 

2017: Brendan McKay (4) [39th in BA 2018]

2016: Josh Lowe (10)

2015: Garrett Whitley (13)

2014: Casey Gillaspie (20)

2013: Nick Ciuffo (21) & Ryne Stanek (29)

2012: Ricjie Shaffer (25)

 

2010: Joshua Sale (17)

2009: LeVon Washington (30)

2008: Tim Beckham (1)

2007: David Price (1)

2006: Evan Longoria (3)

2005: Wade Townsend (8)

2004: Jeff Niemann (4)

2003: Delmon Young (1)

2002: BJ Upton (2)

2001: Dewon Brazelton (3)

 

They have struck gold on draft picks, mostly long ago, when they had top picks, but I would not say it is their strength.

[notin]

Sort of like how the Dodgers, while they always seem to have a good farm, have developed this new knack for taking utility infielders and turning them into All Stars...