2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[notin]

Kinda scary when out top competition in the AL this year also has so many more top and or better prospects...

 

NYY: 6, 38, 41, 59, 77, 81

 

HOU: 10, 15, 62, 76

 

CLE: 20, 33

 

BOS: 83, 85

 

(Also, 6 of the top 21 prospects are in the AL East- none with the Sox.)

 

Of course if you flip over to the General Baseball Forum, you will see a thread titled "Baseball America Top 100" started by Jacksonianmarch some time ago.

 

The first entry in that thread is about the Yankees having six of the top 100 prospects.

 

Four of those six (Montero, Brackman, Banuelos, and Romine) were complete flops. Romine, a career backup catcher, has been the most successful of these four.

 

A little perspective...

[moonslav59]

Sort of like how the Dodgers, while they always seem to have a good farm, have developed this new knack for taking utility infielders and turning them into All Stars...

 

Kinda like the Rays who turn journeymen into top producing 1Bmen...

 

Carloe Pena

Kotchman

Morrison

[sk7326]

Kinda like the Rays who turn journeymen into top producing 1Bmen...

 

Carloe Pena

Kotchman

Morrison

 

Pena and Morrison were both uber prospects though - sometimes it takes the right coaching staff to find a home

[mvp 78]

Kinda like the Rays who turn journeymen into top producing 1Bmen...

 

Carloe Pena

Kotchman

Morrison

 

James Freakin Loney

[Carpin]

Of course if you flip over to the General Baseball Forum, you will see a thread titled "Baseball America Top 100" started by Jacksonianmarch some time ago.

 

The first entry in that thread is about the Yankees having six of the top 100 prospects.

 

Four of those six (Montero, Brackman, Banuelos, and Romine) were complete flops. Romine, a career backup catcher, has been the most successful of these four.

 

A little perspective...

 

You are absolutely right, the other two in that list were Sanchez and Betances.

 

If you tell me that out of the 6 top Yankees prospect we'll get two all-stars and one backup, I'll take it.

[notin]

You are absolutely right, the other two in that list were Sanchez and Betances.

 

If you tell me that out of the 6 top Yankees prospect we'll get two all-stars and one backup, I'll take it.

 

As would any team.

 

But the weird thing is trying to guess the two all stars. The way Montero was being talked up, one would have thought he was an obvious choice back then. (And while Betances has been an All star closer, he as a starer considered less than Banuelos.)

 

Similar to how Torres is being talked up this year. Cashman didn't hold Montero, and it arguably worked out, I guess. But he has been far more adamant about Torres despite one of the better GMs in the league already dealing him for a rental player...

[moonslav59]

How many of these 6 top 100 prospects will be allstars or back-ups?

 

2016

3. Moncada

15. Benintendi

18. Devers

19. Espinoza

56. Margot (on Padres at time of rankings)

89. Kopech

 

[moonslav59]

How about our only 3 on BA's list from 2006?

22. Lester

37. Papelbon

77. Pedroia

[notin]

How many of these 6 top 100 prospects will be allstars or back-ups?

 

2016

3. Moncada

15. Benintendi

18. Devers

19. Espinoza

56. Margot (on Padres at time of rankings)

89. Kopech

 

 

Tough call, but as Benintendi, Devers and Moncada both have starting jobs, they seem les likely to be backups...

[moonslav59]

Tough call, but as Benintendi, Devers and Moncada both have starting jobs, they seem les likely to be backups...

 

Margot is a starter as well.

 

[Carpin]

As would any team.

 

But the weird thing is trying to guess the two all stars. The way Montero was being talked up, one would have thought he was an obvious choice back then. (And while Betances has been an All star closer, he as a starer considered less than Banuelos.)

 

Similar to how Torres is being talked up this year. Cashman didn't hold Montero, and it arguably worked out, I guess. But he has been far more adamant about Torres despite one of the better GMs in the league already dealing him for a rental player...

 

The difference between Montero and Torres is, that Montero had an elite bat but it was projected for many scouts to be a DH/1B and Torres is projected to be an above average defender with a really good bat (the only difference in their bat was that Montero ranked higher in the Power department). Also Montero was traded for one of the best pitchers in the league (Pineda) coming just out of his ROY season, he was not exactly cheap.

 

Agreed on your Banuelos/Betances assesment, Banuelos was the top pitching prospect with the Yankees, he was undersized and he was not able to handle the workload even in the minor leagues. Most of the scouts in those days projected Betances as a RP, something similar to Acevedo.

[notin]

The difference between Montero and Torres is, that Montero had an elite bat but it was projected for many scouts to be a DH/1B and Torres is projected to be an above average defender with a really good bat (the only difference in their bat was that Montero ranked higher in the Power department). Also Montero was traded for one of the best pitchers in the league (Pineda) coming just out of his ROY season, he was not exactly cheap.

 

 

It's always funny when people try to justify the new hype as being radically different from the old identical hype. It is a VAST understatement to say Montero was only considered a 1B/DH type, Yankee fans were spouting he was the next Miguel Cabrera on a vriety of message boards. He was a BA Top 10 prospect 3 times. There was a lot of "can't miss" in the hype. Of course, he did miss. By a lot.

 

It was a really bizarre deal when he was dealt for Pineda, being a rarity that two young, controllable high profile players were swapped for each other. And Pineda was clearly the better get, but he was also - and apparently still is - a walking DL stint. He missed so much time it was difficult to keep track of how long he was with the Yankees.

 

Torres might be great. But if he can't hit, he might end up as a utility infielder. Or, if you prefer, a utility infielder who could have gotten you Gerrit Cole...

[sk7326]

How many of these 6 top 100 prospects will be allstars or back-ups?

 

2016

3. Moncada

15. Benintendi

18. Devers

19. Espinoza

56. Margot (on Padres at time of rankings)

89. Kopech

 

 

Well 3 of the 4 position players are starters already - and Devers, Benintendi have all-star upside for sure.

 

Moncada's rawness still gives him a wide range of outcomes. Pitchers I've stopped betting on.

[moonslav59]

Well 3 of the 4 position players are starters already - and Devers, Benintendi have all-star upside for sure.

 

Moncada's rawness still gives him a wide range of outcomes. Pitchers I've stopped betting on.

 

Agreed, but it does seem we have a pretty good track record with our top 100 (non pitching) prospects succeeding.

[Carpin]

It's always funny when people try to justify the new hype as being radically different from the old identical hype. It is a VAST understatement to say Montero was only considered a 1B/DH type, Yankee fans were spouting he was the next Miguel Cabrera on a vriety of message boards. He was a BA Top 10 prospect 3 times. There was a lot of "can't miss" in the hype. Of course, he did miss. By a lot.

 

It was a really bizarre deal when he was dealt for Pineda, being a rarity that two young, controllable high profile players were swapped for each other. And Pineda was clearly the better get, but he was also - and apparently still is - a walking DL stint. He missed so much time it was difficult to keep track of how long he was with the Yankees.

 

Torres might be great. But if he can't hit, he might end up as a utility infielder. Or, if you prefer, a utility infielder who could have gotten you Gerrit Cole...

 

I'm included in the Montero hype, like most of the Yankee fans and some others, it was not a causality that he was a top prospects all across the board for three years in a row in MLB, BA and ESPN, I was against the trade at the time, but we dodged a huge bullet on that one.

 

As you say Torres could be a utility player going forward, but is projected with a very high floor going forward, I don't really regret letting Cole pass, In this case I prefer the lottery ticket. For a different pitcher I'd be happy to include him, like Archer, Bumgarner, Sale, Keuchel, Kershaw, etc. I know they are not available, but Cole is not in their league.

[notin]

I'm included in the Montero hype, like most of the Yankee fans and some others, it was not a causality that he was a top prospects all across the board for three years in a row in MLB, BA and ESPN, I was against the trade at the time, but we dodged a huge bullet on that one.

 

As you say Torres could be a utility player going forward, but is projected with a very high floor going forward, I don't really regret letting Cole pass, In this case I prefer the lottery ticket. For a different pitcher I'd be happy to include him, like Archer, Bumgarner, Sale, Keuchel, Kershaw, etc. I know they are not available, but Cole is not in their league.

 

I get that. I was among those who didn't want to deal Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels (and his huge contract). And now Swihart is our backup catcher / utilityman, assuming he makes the team at all..

[Carpin]

I get that. I was among those who didn't want to deal Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels (and his huge contract). And now Swihart is our backup catcher / utilityman, assuming he makes the team at all..

 

All of us who fall in love with some prospects get our heart broken very often, I was in the Banuelos hype train too and I'm not even sure if he is still in the league.

 

A shame what happened to Swihart, he was rushed to the ML roster and now he might never reach his potential as an elite player.

[notin]

The one reason I'd be suspicious about Torres is that Epstein gave him up for a rental player. If Dombrowski did that, that's his thing. But it isn't Epstein's, unless he suspects something himself. .

[Carpin]

The one reason I'd be suspicious about Torres is that Epstein gave him up for a rental player. If Dombrowski did that, that's his thing. But it isn't Epstein's, unless he suspects something himself. .

 

You have a valid concern, but Epstein was in a WIN NOW mode and he shipped out everybody with any value. If it was only Torres then it's a different story, hard to go against Theo on his prospects evaluation.

[moonslav59]

The trade rumors were not just Swihart for Hamels.

[notin]

You have a valid concern, but Epstein was in a WIN NOW mode and he shipped out everybody with any value. If it was only Torres then it's a different story, hard to go against Theo on his prospects evaluation.

 

He shipped out two guys with value to upgrade. Adam Warren and Rashad Crawford were not a guys carrying a ton of value. The team already had the best record in the NL and was "winning now".

[jacksonianmarch]

I actually went to a talk run by Gammons featuring Epstein. Epstein has said you sometimes have to make deals where you send away a player you know is going to be great so you can seize the moment

[sk7326]

The one reason I'd be suspicious about Torres is that Epstein gave him up for a rental player. If Dombrowski did that, that's his thing. But it isn't Epstein's, unless he suspects something himself. .

 

Flags fly forever - that's why an org does all of this. Epstein I am sure misses Torres - but winning titles is what all of this is for.

[moonslav59]

It's kind of the same situation when someone suggests trading one of our players. Several times, we hear, "Why are you giving up on so-and-so?"

 

To me, if your suggested trade is for a good player, the suggested trade actually shows you value that player highly.

 

You have to give to receive. Theo knows that. DD knows that.

[Carpin]

It's kind of the same situation when someone suggests trading one of our players. Several times, we hear, "Why are you giving up on so-and-so?"

 

To me, if your suggested trade is for a good player, the suggested trade actually shows you value that player highly.

 

You have to give to receive. Theo knows that. DD knows that.

 

That's exactly the way I see it, even if you have to give up some prospects you love. For example, if Trout is available I'd put everybody available for him including Sanchez, Severino and Judge (but not in the same package).

[moonslav59]

That's exactly the way I see it, even if you have to give up some prospects you love. For example, if Trout is available I'd put everybody available for him including Sanchez, Severino and Judge (but not in the same package).

 

Yes. For example, I'm a huge JBJ fan, but I have suggested trading him, if we sign JD. I'd like to keep him and JD, but there are advantages to trading him for someone like Salazar.

 

Now, if someone dislikes Salazar, I can understand how they feel like I am undervaluing JBJ, but I don't see it that way. I think Salazar is one hell of a pitcher. (The injury concerns are valid, however.)

[Carpin]

Yes. For example, I'm a huge JBJ fan, but I have suggested trading him, if we sign JD. I'd like to keep him and JD, but there are advantages to trading him for someone like Salazar.

 

Now, if someone dislikes Salazar, I can understand how they feel like I am undervaluing JBJ, but I don't see it that way. I think Salazar is one hell of a pitcher. (The injury concerns are valid, however.)

 

I like Salazar, I'd make a deal for him, just I'm not sure I will add a major piece from the ML roster besides Betances. Betances plus Frazier might get it done, if not we can add another arm from the minors. Not sure if it's enough, but Salazar has a huge question mark in the health department.

[Spudboy]

Is Cleveland looking to move Salazar?

[moonslav59]

Is Cleveland looking to move Salazar?

 

There's been rumors for years.

 

They have a couple fine young pitchers that have done well when called on to start.

 

As starters...

 

Ryan Merrit 3-0 1.82 in 5 career starts

 

Mike Clevinger 12-7 3.66 in 31 starts

 

 

 

[Carpin]

Is Cleveland looking to move Salazar?

 

Not right now, but I saw a few reports which said he might be available in the right deal, those guys are the only ones which can afford to deal a SP and stay in contention, plus they need to strike while he's healthy