The Case for signing Shohei Otani

[vjcsmoke]

Shohei Otani is the latest japanese superstar to be made available via the posting system. He is just turned 23. So he is young with plenty of room to grow and improve.

He has been recorded with a 100 mph+ heater in a pro ball game. Average velocity is going to be lower, but he has the capacity to throw serious big league heat.

Japan's exports have been up and down a bit, but the one skill that seems to translate across leagues is pitching.

 

We're not looking at a pitcher who needs to get by with off speed stuff and trying to throw the pitch off the plate and get a swing and miss. This young man can throw the real heat and thrive in a fastball dominant pitching league.

He's more comparable to a Yu Darvish in that respect, and thus I believe he can succeed and adapt to the MLB.

 

Next is the fact that the posting system is a lot less outrageous these days. Bid the 20 million dollar max, and from then on it is up to your front office to convince him to sign because I'm sure at least 3-4 clubs will post up the max bid.

 

The Red Sox pitching was pretty good last year, but it was by no means the best in the league. I have no idea if Price will rebound correctly. Or if Porcello returns to 2016 Cy Young form.

We need insurance in the pitching rotation.

We could do a lot worse than promising a #5 spot to a possible future top 2 rotation pitcher in Otani.

 

Look I'm just saying if we sign him, give him the #5 spot for now, if he can't handle it, pull him after a few weeks. But this calculated risk would be worth it imo. Pitching simply wins, especially in the postseason.

Of course our #1 priority this offseason will still be a top hitter/slugger, but I'm saying the Red Sox shouldn't ignore this opportunity to pick up prime pitching talent for basically just cash.

 

Dombrowski has drained the farm a bit for necessary trades -- the Sale trade still stands as one of his best yet as our GM, and the Pomeranz trade finally paid off handsomely last season.

But here's a chance to acquire talent without expending farm assets, I think we should take it. What's 20 mill for a franchise like the Red Sox?

 

Just an added bonus -- If Otani's hitting form is big league good, he could fill both the DH and pitching role for us. A two for one acquisiton. Something to think about.

 

Otani Scouting Report:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/254954096/scouting-report-on-japanese-star-shohei-ohtani/

[mvp 78]

It'd be great to sign him, but we don't have enough International $$$ to bring him here. Why would he sign a 3-4 year deal with the Sox for $462k/year? I believe the Yanks and Twins can offer over 7 times that amount.

[vjcsmoke]

It'd be great to sign him, but we don't have enough International $$$ to bring him here. Why would he sign a 3-4 year deal with the Sox for $462k/year? I believe the Yanks and Twins can offer over 7 times that amount.

 

I have read an article that the red sox have been trading slots to acquire international money and can offer around 8m dollars which would be competitive with a Yankees signing bonus offer.

As long as money is relatively close, it's probably going to come down to fit and who Otani believes will give him the best opportunity to succeed. IE recruiting, recruiting, recruiting. Sell him the dream, Dombrowski!

 

More Otani news:

https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/08/25/red-sox-gearing-run-shohei-otani/

 

"The Red Sox started with a bonus pool of $4.75 million and have added to it through trades this season. Jon Heyman believes that the Red Sox have been adding to their bonus pools in preparation for an Otani sweepstakes this offseason.

... Teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees have around $8 million dollars available as opposed to the Dodgers’ $300,000 cap."

 

Will landing Otani be about the money or the dream? Can Red Sox end the Yankees recent monopoly of high end Japanese talent?

https://sports.yahoo.com/shohei-otani-will-leave-hundreds-millions-dollars-table-play-mlb-next-season-063136007.html

Edited November 27, 2017 by vjcsmoke

[jacksonianmarch]

Ohtani is a stud, and he’ll look great in pinstripes

[mvp 78]

I have read an article that the red sox have been trading slots to acquire international money and can offer around 8m dollars which would be competitive with a Yankees signing bonus offer.

As long as money is relatively close, it's probably going to come down to fit and who Otani believes will give him the best opportunity to succeed. IE recruiting, recruiting, recruiting. Sell him the dream, Dombrowski!

 

More Otani news:

https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/08/25/red-sox-gearing-run-shohei-otani/

 

"The Red Sox started with a bonus pool of $4.75 million and have added to it through trades this season. Jon Heyman believes that the Red Sox have been adding to their bonus pools in preparation for an Otani sweepstakes this offseason.

... Teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees have around $8 million dollars available as opposed to the Dodgers’ $300,000 cap."

 

That link is old. All the newer info reveals they have a lot less to use. They started with $4.75M, added with the Longhi trade, but still spent over $7M already. http://www.soxprospects.com/international.htm

[mvp 78]

Ohtani is a stud, and he’ll look great in pinstripes

 

Why, will he be shooting guns with Chapman?

[mvp 78]

Also, "Bosoxinjection" is NOT a valid news source.

[Jack Flap]

The better question is, what is the case against signing him? I don't really see one, unless you think he's not going to be that good a major league hitter and his presumed requirement to be allowed to hit is going to f*** up your roster construction.

 

Doesn't sound like we have the bonus pool space left to make it happen, though. Yes, he's already foregoing a huge sum by coming over now rather than in a couple of years, but the difference between $3-4 million and the approximately $400k we have to offer is still pretty significant...

Edited November 27, 2017 by Jack Flap

[FredLynn]

Shohei Otani is the latest japanese superstar to be made available via the posting system. He is just turned 23. So he is young with plenty of room to grow and improve.

He has been recorded with a 100 mph+ heater in a pro ball game. Average velocity is going to be lower, but he has the capacity to throw serious big league heat.

Japan's exports have been up and down a bit, but the one skill that seems to translate across leagues is pitching.

 

We're not looking at a pitcher who needs to get by with off speed stuff and trying to throw the pitch off the plate and get a swing and miss. This young man can throw the real heat and thrive in a fastball dominant pitching league.

He's more comparable to a Yu Darvish in that respect, and thus I believe he can succeed and adapt to the MLB.

 

Next is the fact that the posting system is a lot less outrageous these days. Bid the 20 million dollar max, and from then on it is up to your front office to convince him to sign because I'm sure at least 3-4 clubs will post up the max bid.

 

The Red Sox pitching was pretty good last year, but it was by no means the best in the league. I have no idea if Price will rebound correctly. Or if Porcello returns to 2016 Cy Young form.

We need insurance in the pitching rotation.

We could do a lot worse than promising a #5 spot to a possible future top 2 rotation pitcher in Otani.

 

Look I'm just saying if we sign him, give him the #5 spot for now, if he can't handle it, pull him after a few weeks. But this calculated risk would be worth it imo. Pitching simply wins, especially in the postseason.

Of course our #1 priority this offseason will still be a top hitter/slugger, but I'm saying the Red Sox shouldn't ignore this opportunity to pick up prime pitching talent for basically just cash.

 

Dombrowski has drained the farm a bit for necessary trades -- the Sale trade still stands as one of his best yet as our GM, and the Pomeranz trade finally paid off handsomely last season.

But here's a chance to acquire talent without expending farm assets, I think we should take it. What's 20 mill for a franchise like the Red Sox?

 

Just an added bonus -- If Otani's hitting form is big league good, he could fill both the DH and pitching role for us. A two for one acquisiton. Something to think about.

 

Otani Scouting Report:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/254954096/scouting-report-on-japanese-star-shohei-ohtani/

 

As was pointed out below, we do not have the money to make a competitive offer for him. Second point, having "major heat" on his fastball is not good enough in MLB. You need location and a mix of offspeed stuff as well. Third, he is not going to be both a pitcher and a DH. No player in MLB assumes both roles, because of the work involved in preparing to play each role. Finally, I know he comes with a good scouting report, but a lot of guys from Japan did well over there and failed over here. Remember Matsusaka? He had a good year or two, but overall was a disappointment. Its not a given that Ohtani will be a star over here.

[Bellhorn04]

There are no guarantees with Ohtani, but I'd still just as soon the Yanks didn't get him!

[sk7326]

It is probably going to be an AL team - so he could hit a couple of times a week. Also in the land of 13 man pitching staffs - having a potentially "much better than you'd expect" pinch runner/hitter is pretty valuable.

 

The Red Sox should do their best - and will ... but this is one of those cases where I don't really think money is going to matter much. Otani will be wildly underpaid for a couple of years regardless ...

 

Olney speculated a team like Minnesota could be a dark horse - with basically no payroll commitments after FY20, they could sign Darvish ans Otani as a package.

[sk7326]

As was pointed out below, we do not have the money to make a competitive offer for him. Second point, having "major heat" on his fastball is not good enough in MLB. You need location and a mix of offspeed stuff as well. Third, he is not going to be both a pitcher and a DH. No player in MLB assumes both roles, because of the work involved in preparing to play each role. Finally, I know he comes with a good scouting report, but a lot of guys from Japan did well over there and failed over here. Remember Matsusaka? He had a good year or two, but overall was a disappointment. Its not a given that Ohtani will be a star over here.

 

His scouting is a great fastball, plus-plus slider and splitter ...

[notin]

There are no guarantees with Ohtani, but I'd still just as soon the Yanks didn't get him!

 

There are no guarantees with proven MLB veterans either.

 

There were solid arguments for Carl Crawford as AL MVP the season before Boston signed him. And he turned into one of the worst signings in MLB history. ..

[notin]

Ohtani will sign with either New York, Minn, Texas or Seattle. .

 

Sox might as well save their cash for a former Braves top prospect or two...

[notin]

Ohtani will sign with either New York, Minn, Texas or Seattle. .

 

Sox might as well save their cash for a former Braves top prospect or two...

[vjcsmoke]

Thanks for the sox international cap update. Yes, 400k is not a lot too offer in terms of a bonus. Can the Red Sox trade in money from next year to this year to sign Ohtani?

 

There is one article that suggested the Red Sox could do something like that to sign the released Braves prospects:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/11/28/16709134/red-sox-offseason-kevin-maitan-dave-dombrowski

 

And as someone mentioned Scouts believe that Ohtani has 3 plus pitches, his fastball and 2 offspeed pitches.

 

I feel like AL is best fit because you can just slide him to DH to get him some at bats easily.

 

Red Sox actually need a good DH/power bat so if Otani develops he could be a 2 for 1 deal! The kid hit for over 900 ops in each of the past 2 years in Japan although it's a lower league, if we saw those numbers in triple A or even double A we would be pumped about that hitting prospect!

 

I hear Fred's concern about Matsuzaka. But DiceK never had the velocity this kid does. Over in JP DiceK was hitting around 94 mph with his fastball.

Meanwhile Otani, who is now 6-5 btw, has hit 102mph on the radar gun! He averaged nearly 12 K's per 9 in JP.

So he is not going to have to nibble around the corners to get outs and hope his breaking ball hits, he can be the flamethrower type who gets a lot of outs with his fastball first, and then use his breaking stuff to get nasty cos they are afraid to swing late on the heat.

Because of this I project Otani to more of a Darvish type, who is a 4 time all-star in the AL, thus more likely to make it in the MLB.

Edited November 28, 2017 by vjcsmoke

[Kimmi]

If signing Ohtani required giving him a big contract, I'd say he isn't worth the risk. But since he will be playing or league minimum there's no harm in trying to nab him. I think the Sox should make a big push for him, not that I think it will matter. IMO, Ohtani is headed for the Evil Empire.

[moonslav59]

If signing Ohtani required giving him a big contract, I'd say he isn't worth the risk. But since he will be playing or league minimum there's no harm in trying to nab him. I think the Sox should make a big push for him, not that I think it will matter. IMO, Ohtani is headed for the Evil Empire.

 

If I had to bet the west coast field vs the Yanks, I'd take the west coast.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the sox international cap update. Yes, 400k is not a lot too offer in terms of a bonus. Can the Red Sox trade in money from next year to this year to sign Ohtani?

 

There is one article that suggested the Red Sox could do something like that to sign the released Braves prospects:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/11/28/16709134/red-sox-offseason-kevin-maitan-dave-dombrowski

 

And as someone mentioned Scouts believe that Ohtani has 3 plus pitches, his fastball and 2 offspeed pitches.

 

I feel like AL is best fit because you can just slide him to DH to get him some at bats easily.

 

Red Sox actually need a good DH/power bat so if Otani develops he could be a 2 for 1 deal! The kid hit for over 900 ops in each of the past 2 years in Japan although it's a lower league, if we saw those numbers in triple A or even double A we would be pumped about that hitting prospect!

 

I hear Fred's concern about Matsuzaka. But DiceK never had the velocity this kid does. Over in JP DiceK was hitting around 94 mph with his fastball.

Meanwhile Otani, who is now 6-5 btw, has hit 102mph on the radar gun! He averaged nearly 12 K's per 9 in JP.

So he is not going to have to nibble around the corners to get outs and hope his breaking ball hits, he can be the flamethrower type who gets a lot of outs with his fastball first, and then use his breaking stuff to get nasty cos they are afraid to swing late on the heat.

Because of this I project Otani to more of a Darvish type, who is a 4 time all-star in the AL, thus more likely to make it in the MLB.

 

One big concern with Dice-K was how many pitched he had thrown in Japan before coming here.

 

What's the scoop on S. O. in that area?

[Kimmi]

If I had to bet the west coast field vs the Yanks, I'd take the west coast.

 

I hope you're right.

[harmony]

One big concern with Dice-K was how many pitched he had thrown in Japan before coming here.

 

What's the scoop on S. O. in that area?

Shohei Ohtani, who turned 23 in July, has pitched 543 career innings for the Nippon Ham Fighter of Japan's Pacific League:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=otani-000sho

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka had pitched 1,493.2 innings for the Seibu Lions of the same league before joining the Red Sox at age 26:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matsuda01.shtml

Edited November 29, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Shohei Ohtani, who turned 23 in July, has pitched 543 career innings for the Nippon Ham Fighter of Japan's Pacific League:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=otani-000sho

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka had pitched 1,493.2 innings for the Seibu Lions of the same league before joining the Red Sox at age 26:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matsuda01.shtml

 

Thanks.

 

I was hoping for pitch counts, but

 

SO 543 in 85 games (6.4 IP /game)

DK 1424 in 209 games (6.8 IP/game)

 

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

No surprise, but Dave Dombrowski says the #RedSox will indeed get in the Ohtani race … Also, all-arb eligibles will be tendered on Friday as of now.

[mvp 78]

Jeremy Barfield

@BarfontheField

 

I’m glad the @RedSox realized there’s no need to sign Shohei Ohtani when they already have me in the system. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Bellhorn04]

Jeremy Barfield

@BarfontheField

 

I’m glad the @RedSox realized there’s no need to sign Shohei Ohtani when they already have me in the system. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Gotta like a man with a sense of humor.

[mvp 78]

Gotta like a man with a sense of humor.

 

I'm a fan. Hope he can at least get a shot at a September call up someday.

[SCM33]

Overhyped.

 

Will not come as advertised. Will not be given a serious opportunity to hit and pitch. Pitching arms are investments and are worth too much. How would the team that signs him ever explain why their 30 million dollar pitcher hurt his arm making a throw from the outfield when he is nothing more than a .220 hitter?

 

Hideki Irabu was their "Roger Clemens"

Hideki Matsui was their perennial all star home run champion.

Dice-K threw a Gyroball. The Gyroball doesn't exist. And he sucked.

 

None ever produced anywhere near the hype.

 

Ichiru is the only player that backed up the hype, and he just might be the greatest singles hitter in baseball history, replacing Pete Rose. Plus, an all time defender with plus speed.

[moonslav59]

We'll see.

[SCM33]

We'll see.

 

Yup, We will see. We'll see that once again, Japanese players are not even worth their posting fee, let alone long term contract.

[Larry Cook]

Not signing ohtani is probably desperate dave’s Biggest failure to date.

 

I swear desperate dave could not get laid in a women's Prison even if he had a hand full of get out of jail free cards on him.