Fire alex cora

[sk7326]

Good summary.

 

I will add, the team is 7th in team OPS and tied for 8th in runs scored, despite being 11th in wRC+, so I would say that is better than "a little above average," but of late, they have been just that.

 

The pitching has been about 10th in many key categories of measurement since the start of May or mid May, so maybe that can change by year's end.

 

SP since May 13th:

4th xFIP at 3.91

8th in ERA at 3.84

8th in ERA- at 87

7th in K-BB% at 17%

 

Yes, these are just SP'er numbers, and they include the 10 run game vs CLE a few days ago.

11th in fWAR at 2.1

 

the pitching has been let down by some truly awful defense. You could see this pitching staff being at least a run better in any sort of decent run prevention environment.

[moonslav59]

the pitching has been let down by some truly awful defense. You could see this pitching staff being at least a run better in any sort of decent run prevention environment.

 

I totally agree. Our catchers have not helped our staff much, either, as most pitchers have higher ERA, this year than last, with the exception of Crawink. Some of that is poor D all around, but our catchers have not done well, either.

 

Hopefully, Story and Mondesi help improve the D at SS, 2B, CF (as Kike/Duran play more CF) and LF (as Duvall plays more LF) and maybe Turner at 1B more often and an improvement by Casas over the second half of 2023 will improve 1B, too. I hope the learning curve at catcher ends, soon. Devers is hard to predict. Dugo has done fine in RF.

[mvp 78]

the pitching has been let down by some truly awful defense. You could see this pitching staff being at least a run better in any sort of decent run prevention environment.

 

Starter ERA 5.07

Starter xFIP 4.08 (10th in MLB)

[moonslav59]

Starter ERA 5.07

Starter xFIP 4.08 (10th in MLB)

 

Just about a run differential.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Highest on-base percentage in MLB (min. 100 PA):

 

1. Luis Arraez .440

2. Corey Seager .420

3. ROB REFSNYDER .418

 

In his last 20 games (beginning May 13), Refsnyder has a .519 OBP.

 

Refsnyder has reached base in 17 of his last 25 PA against lefties (10-for-18, 5 BB, 2 HBP).

At least Cora is using Refsnyder correctly this year.

[Bellhorn04]

@SoxNotes

Highest on-base percentage in MLB (min. 100 PA):

 

1. Luis Arraez .440

2. Corey Seager .420

3. ROB REFSNYDER .418

 

In his last 20 games (beginning May 13), Refsnyder has a .519 OBP.

 

Refsnyder has reached base in 17 of his last 25 PA against lefties (10-for-18, 5 BB, 2 HBP).

At least Cora is using Refsnyder correctly this year.

 

Last year Refsnyder had an .881 OPS, including a .792 OPS against righties. Don't see a problem.

[moonslav59]

Last year Refsnyder had an .881 OPS, including a .792 OPS against righties. Don't see a problem.

 

This year, he has played much less vs RHPs:

 

2023:

.532 v R in 50 PAs (started 6 gms v R)

.980 v L in 73 PAs (started 20 gms v L)

PAs: 60-40% v L/ GS 23% v L)

 

2022:

.792 v R in 104 PAs (started 41 v R)

1.005 v L in 73 PAs (started 16 v L)

PAs: 41-59% v L (complete flip)/ GS 72% v L, almost a complete flip

 

Should Ref play more vs RH SP'er? Would he better vs them, if he did?

 

Who would he replace in the line-up? ( I see nobody.)

Yoshida- NO!

Turner- NO!

Duvall- NO!

While Casas, Duran and Dugo struggle vs LHPs, they all do

very well vs RHPs, so I don't see where Ref gets more time.

[Jasonbay44]

It’s definitely a good problem having all of Duvall, Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran and Refsnyder having good seasons. They all have different and useful skill sets

[mvp 78]

Last year Refsnyder had an .881 OPS, including a .792 OPS against righties. Don't see a problem.

 

He has a 532 OPS against RHP this year. I think many people expected him to fall back to earth somewhat.

[moonslav59]

Last year Refsnyder had an .881 OPS, including a .792 OPS against righties. Don't see a problem.

 

How's this?

 

352 players with 300+ PAs since 2022 (about an avg of 7 per team)

 

Refsnyder OVERALL (not lefty splits)

 

6th OBP at .398 (Yandy Diaz is 5th at .399/ Alvarez 4th at .401

 

wOBA

13 .th .375 (tied with Betts, who has more than 3X the PAs)

 

wRC+

17th 140 (just ahead of Arraez, Machado, Arozarena and Jose Ramirez

 

OPS

20th at .850

 

vs LHP ONLY (145+ PAs)

OPS

1. Goldschmidt 1.114

2. A Riley 1.006

3. Betts 1.000

4. R Castro .998

5. Y Alvarez .996

6. Refsnyder .994

 

OBP

.455 Goldschmidt

.445 Refsnyder

 

Thanks, Bloom.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

He has a 532 OPS against RHP this year. I think many people expected him to fall back to earth somewhat.

 

It's not a big deal to me one way or the other, just jabbering. But it's nice to see a guy like that do well two years in a row. And he got an extension out of it.

[moonslav59]

It's not a big deal to me one way or the other, just jabbering. But it's nice to see a guy like that do well two years in a row. And he got an extension out of it.

 

I think I was hoping Bloom would find 7 or 8 Refsnyders and Schreibers over 3.5 years.

[Maxbialystock]

I totally agree. Our catchers have not helped our staff much, either, as most pitchers have higher ERA, this year than last, with the exception of Crawink. Some of that is poor D all around, but our catchers have not done well, either.

 

Hopefully, Story and Mondesi help improve the D at SS, 2B, CF (as Kike/Duran play more CF) and LF (as Duvall plays more LF) and maybe Turner at 1B more often and an improvement by Casas over the second half of 2023 will improve 1B, too. I hope the learning curve at catcher ends, soon. Devers is hard to predict. Dugo has done fine in RF.

 

Wong's DWAR is +1.1, tied for 2d best in MLB. You may not like him, but I do.

 

Casas's DWAR at 1b is -0.8, tied for 3d worst in MLB.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Dipre]

Wong's DWAR is +1.1, tied for 2d best in MLB. You may not like him, but I do.

 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, no mention of Casas at 1b, where his DWAR is tied for 3d worst in MLB @ -0.8.

 

Casas will be fine. His D will settle down as his offense improves.

[Maxbialystock]

Casas will be fine. His D will settle down as his offense improves.

 

Actually, I agree. In fact, I think his height makes him a better target for throws to 1b--plus he is good at stretching for the ball.

[Maxbialystock]

I think I was hoping Bloom would find 7 or 8 Refsnyders and Schreibers over 3.5 years.

 

Well put.

[moonslav59]

Wong's DWAR is +1.1, tied for 2d best in MLB. You may not like him, but I do.

 

Casas's DWAR at 1b is -0.8, tied for 3d worst in MLB.

 

Why do you get the impression I dislike Wong? Was it because I defended McGuire over unbalanced tiny CERA sample sizes?

 

I like both our catchers and projected they'd be as good or better than the Vaz/Plawecki of 2022. They are clearly better than the 2023 Vaz/Plawecki, so far.

 

I thought Casas was supposed to bring us some decent D at 1B, something we sorely lacked, last year. Maybe he will improve over the second half. His offense is light years better than what we had at 1B, last year. I think his power will show up more, going forward.

[Maxbialystock]

Why do you get the impression I dislike Wong? Was it because I defended McGuire over unbalanced tiny CERA sample sizes?

 

I like both our catchers and projected they'd be as good or better than the Vaz/Plawecki of 2022. They are clearly better than the 2023 Vaz/Plawecki, so far.

 

I thought Casas was supposed to bring us some decent D at 1B, something we sorely lacked, last year. Maybe he will improve over the second half. His offense is light years better than what we had at 1B, last year. I think his power will show up more, going forward.

 

Didn't you just post that Wong and McGuire have hurt the Sox pitching this year?

 

Also, I have said repeatedly I like McGuire. I just like Wong more.

 

As for Casas, I agree with most people that he seems to be the answer at 1b. In fact, I think that DWAR of -0.8 might be bogus. He's a little weak on grounders and doesn't have much range, but I like his fielding of throws to 1b. Plus his OPS was .585 in April, .766 in May, and so far in June is .894.

[Dipre]

That homer on a pitch that was definitely a ball tells you a lot about the way he's changing up his approach. That was a big boy swing and a big boy homer.

[mvp 78]

Didn't you just post that Wong and McGuire have hurt the Sox pitching this year?

 

Also, I have said repeatedly I like McGuire. I just like Wong more.

 

As for Casas, I agree with most people that he seems to be the answer at 1b. In fact, I think that DWAR of -0.8 might be bogus. He's a little weak on grounders and doesn't have much range, but I like his fielding of throws to 1b. Plus his OPS was .585 in April, .766 in May, and so far in June is .894.

 

You think WEEI did Casas dirty with this?

 

https://twitter.com/WEEI/status/1670805526182256640

[Bellhorn04]

Casas's OPS continues to steadily creep upward. It was .576 at end of April, .667 at end of May, .730 today.

[dannycater]

Cora is only as good as what he has to work with and the team is turning it around, so maybe his approach isn't so bad. Not necessarily agree with benching Verdugo for his running gaffe (he already pulled him during that game), but Verdugo took it well and has been hitting tear ever since. Good managing? Maybe so.

[mvp 78]

Casas's OPS continues to steadily creep upward. It was .576 at end of April, .667 at end of May, .730 today.

 

It's hard to dig out of that hole, but he's doing it. He'll be fine over the long haul, but his YTD numbers don't look great. That's why you have to look at splits for certain players, ESPECIALLY FOR YOUNG GUYS ADJUSTING TO THE LEAGUE.

[moonslav59]

Didn't you just post that Wong and McGuire have hurt the Sox pitching this year?

 

Also, I have said repeatedly I like McGuire. I just like Wong more.

 

As for Casas, I agree with most people that he seems to be the answer at 1b. In fact, I think that DWAR of -0.8 might be bogus. He's a little weak on grounders and doesn't have much range, but I like his fielding of throws to 1b. Plus his OPS was .585 in April, .766 in May, and so far in June is .894.

 

I think Wong and McGuire needed a learning curve to get to know our staff, and they shortened the curve to about 6 weeks. I think even veteran catchers need a couple weeks or more to get to a comfort zone with a new staff.

 

I projected our catching would be as good or better than 2022's and most disagreed.

 

They both will be fine on D and with the staff, IMO. They were not so great in April, but maybe that was 90% on the pitchers.

 

I like McGuire and Wong pretty evenly, but it is early to judge.

[moonslav59]

Casas's OPS continues to steadily creep upward. It was .576 at end of April, .667 at end of May, .730 today.

 

I'm pretty confident in the Casas progression. I think he will keep growing and getting better on D, with power and even more on the OBP.

[Maxbialystock]

You think WEEI did Casas dirty with this?

 

https://twitter.com/WEEI/status/1670805526182256640

 

I like WAR and DWAR numbers because they at least attempt to look at the whole player. I'm told fWAR is more reliable, but don't have access to those numbers.

 

I have also watched him in a lot of games and stand by what I said: good on catching throws to 1b (for which his height, 6'5", is an asset), not so good on grounders (height and weight are disadvantageous). About 2 or 3 games ago I called him stupid and quickly regretted it. He got picked off at 1b. Last night Duran got picked off at 1b, plus he was also out by a mile trying to score from 1b on an SB and 2 errant throws.

 

Here's why Casas is likely a keeper: April OPS .585; May .766; June .851; July 1.227.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

I like WAR and DWAR numbers because they at least attempt to look at the whole player. I'm told fWAR is more reliable, but don't have access to those numbers.

 

I have also watched him in a lot of games and stand by what I said: good on catching throws to 1b (for which his height, 6'5", is an asset), not so good on grounders (height and weight are disadvantageous). About 2 or 3 games ago I called him stupid and quickly regretted it. He got picked off at 1b. Last night Duran got picked off at 1b, plus he was also out by a mile trying to score from 1b on an SB and 2 errant throws.

 

Here's why Casas is likely a keeper: April OPS .585; May .766; June .851; July 1.227.

 

Just google fangraphs, select Red Sox in team window. Change PA or IP from qualified to a lower number and see the fWAR numbers in the far right column.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like WAR and DWAR numbers because they at least attempt to look at the whole player. I'm told fWAR is more reliable, but don't have access to those numbers.

 

I have also watched him in a lot of games and stand by what I said: good on catching throws to 1b (for which his height, 6'5", is an asset), not so good on grounders (height and weight are disadvantageous). About 2 or 3 games ago I called him stupid and quickly regretted it. He got picked off at 1b. Last night Duran got picked off at 1b, plus he was also out by a mile trying to score from 1b on an SB and 2 errant throws.

 

Here's why Casas is likely a keeper: April OPS .585; May .766; June .851; July 1.227.

 

I'm with you on Casas, but not sure why you posted on a Cora thread.

 

But I'm also with you on the bang-up job Cora has done with his "modern" pitching staff: two rookie starters and one retread, with a cast of cast-off and newbie relievers. Dang-yo.

 

These Red Sox aren't a playoff team yet, but even if they just stay in the hunt, it may be time to give credit the manager and CBO for the endless supply of lefty bullpen arms. And whoever made the call on moving Pivetta from starter to bulk-guy (methinks it was a collaborative decision).

 

Now get another righty reliever before Martin's arm falls off. I can see Bloom not overpaying for another starter, and even moving one of IL righties -- Houck or Whitlock -- back to the pen. I can even envision turning Paxton into a young, controllable prospect at the deadline...

 

... but the only true way to show both the players and fans we're not conceding the season is to acquire somebody to fortify the pitching staff.

[moonslav59]

I'm with you on Casas, but not sure why you posted on a Cora thread.

 

But I'm also with you on the bang-up job Cora has done with his "modern" pitching staff: two rookie starters and one retread, with a cast of cast-off and newbie relievers. Dang-yo.

 

These Red Sox aren't a playoff team yet, but even if they just stay in the hunt, it may be time to give credit the manager and CBO for the endless supply of lefty bullpen arms. And whoever made the call on moving Pivetta from starter to bulk-guy (methinks it was a collaborative decision).

 

Now get another righty reliever before Martin's arm falls off. I can see Bloom not overpaying for another starter, and even moving one of IL righties -- Houck or Whitlock -- back to the pen. I can even envision turning Paxton into a young, controllable prospect at the deadline...

 

... but the only true way to show both the players and fans we're not conceding the season is to acquire somebody to fortify the pitching staff.

 

The RH'd pen arm should be Houck and or Whitlock, as we trade for a solid SP'er or two.

 

BTW, Wink is turning things back around, so we do have 2 nice RH'd pen guys. I agree, we still need another.

 

Also, some lefties are doing a good to great job getting righties out:

 

OPSA

.446 Murphy

.662 Walter

.681 Bleier

.686 Jacquez

.700 Bernardino

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The RH'd pen arm should be Houck and or Whitlock, as we trade for a solid SP'er or two.

 

BTW, Wink is turning things back around, so we do have 2 nice RH'd pen guys. I agree, we still need another.

 

Also, some lefties are doing a good to great job getting righties out:

 

OPSA

.446 Murphy

.662 Walter

.681 Bleier

.686 Jacquez

.700 Bernardino

 

Ya, maybe they like Wink more as a match-up righty now than a bulk-guy, which may have burned him out (as he was less effective after a hot start). But if they're going to keep rolling the dice with 40% bullpen games, then maybe it'll just be Pivetta and the fresh guy of the month, like Murphy for now.

 

Sam Kennedy -- surprise -- is more excited about all the guys coming off the IL, who of course will be better than any other healthy deadline acquisition (blow nsave, I mean, hold-save).