A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I guess the question becomes, after 2018, what do you do? Do you re-sign Pom and Kimbrel? Do you let them walk and sign one of the other FAs out there? The sox are headed for being over the lux tax this season with Pomeranz and Kimbrel being underpaid likely by a $16 mil per annum margin. (Pom expected to get $10 mil in 2018 and Kimbrel $12 mil). I anticipate that if they repeat their 2017 levels of performance that Pom is looking at $20 mil per year and Kimbrel at least at $18 mil. When you add in the arb raises plus $16 mil for re-signing plus whatever else the sox do, things start to get sticky after 2018. After 2019, things get outright bonkers. After 2020, the cliff appears

[Bellhorn04]

I guess the question becomes, after 2018, what do you do? Do you re-sign Pom and Kimbrel? Do you let them walk and sign one of the other FAs out there? The sox are headed for being over the lux tax this season with Pomeranz and Kimbrel being underpaid likely by a $16 mil per annum margin. (Pom expected to get $10 mil in 2018 and Kimbrel $12 mil). I anticipate that if they repeat their 2017 levels of performance that Pom is looking at $20 mil per year and Kimbrel at least at $18 mil. When you add in the arb raises plus $16 mil for re-signing plus whatever else the sox do, things start to get sticky after 2018. After 2019, things get outright bonkers. After 2020, the cliff appears

 

Oh please, explain it one more time!

[cp176]

With all due respect, you chime in on the issue quite often.

 

When I say "we" I'm speaking for those of us that believe there is a strong possibility we hit a very rough patch starting in 2020 or 2021. I don't want to speak for others, and I'm probably missing a couple names, but myself, Kimmi, notin, jacksonianmarch all seem to have similar beliefs on this subject.

 

You are right - I do.

[Hitch]

This forum is unreadable on times. The bickering is insane.

 

The farm is depleted and not in great shape. This is clear. This may well cause issues down the line when our quality young (and otherwise) players need to be extended or lost. It's harder to keep a team competitive for long periods of time without good players in the farm. That said, such an issue might not come to pass as there are a few years to go and there will be many moves to be made between then and now. A few trade deadline trades, if we're out of contention over the next few years, will re-stock nicely.

 

Is there really the continued need for nitpicking and constant circling of this issue? It's pretty clear that deep down both sides agree with some form of the above. People apparently would rather be petty and keep needling each other.

[Spudboy]

This forum is unreadable on times. The bickering is insane.

 

The farm is depleted and not in great shape. This is clear. This may well cause issues down the line when our quality young (and otherwise) players need to be extended or lost. It's harder to keep a team competitive for long periods of time without good players in the farm. That said, such an issue might not come to pass as there are a few years to go and there will be many moves to be made between then and now. A few trade deadline trades, if we're out of contention over the next few years, will re-stock nicely.

 

Is there really the continued need for nitpicking and constant circling of this issue? It's pretty clear that deep down both sides agree with some form of the above. People apparently would rather be petty and keep needling each other.

 

This is what this forum has become fairly recently. Over and over and over about the same topics. Clutch, batting order, and the cliff are the biggies.

 

Talksox has always had some spirited discussion and even some s*** storms. Once a topic ran it's course it was done.

 

Now many of the same people keep bring up the same old tired and useless topics.

[moonslav59]

We need something big to happen, so we can change the subject.

 

The first domino has to fall soon- Stanton to the Giants. Get it done!

[Kimmi]

How can outlays of over $300 million not be pulling the trigger? What do you call pulling the trigger?

 

Much of that $300 million (Porcello and Castillo) was still building towards the 2016 season. Another part of that $300 million was from Pablo's contract, which IMO, was not Ben.

[Bellhorn04]

We need something big to happen, so we can change the subject.

 

The first domino has to fall soon- Stanton to the Giants. Get it done!

 

Yeah, there's been no real news at all for a pretty long stretch of time.

[Kimmi]

I like that definition better than mine, and in that light, some of Ben's last place finishes would not be considered "cliff" worthy, since a fair amount of people felt we'd compete for the playoffs.

 

The Sox were expected to contend both seasons. In 2014, they were the overwhelming favorites, by both the analysts and the computer projection systems, to win the division. I don't blame the GM for what happened on the field, and in no way consider those two years cliff worthy.

 

The same will be true in 2020 and the following few years.

[Kimmi]

I really didn't mean it that way. Kimmi has stated 'The cliff exists until it doesn't' repeatedly, like a mantra, and it sounded to me like a statement of fact. But she clarified it that it's an opinion.

 

I argue with you and Kimmi and Notin about the Cliff and Ben a lot, but I have as much respect for the opinions of you 3 as anyone's. If I didn't respect your opinions I probably wouldn't argue with you as much.

 

I think you know that I very much respect your opinion. I understand that my opinion is just my opinion, but I can't preface every statement that I write with "IMO". It is never my intention to be condescending to anyone who is debating me respectfully. I think you know that too.

[Nick]

There's too much conflating of signability of our young players with our total payroll as it relates to impending cliff.

 

Issue with Betts for example is will he sign with Sox when he becomes a free agent? I'm pretty sure we won't be outbid by 'significant' amount for his services. Thus money required is 'set aside' for Betts. If he signs with another team, that money is still available. Where's the cliff? We're simply use that money to sign someone else. Choice is not Betts versus NO ONE as doomsayers want us to believe.

 

We're also forgetting salaries that will be coming off our books in couple of years.

 

Obviously LIKE ANY OTHER TEAM, we can't pay top dollars for everyone of our players that's looking to become free agents.

 

I just don't see us fighting for last place any time soon.

[moonslav59]

There's too much conflating of signability of our young players with our total payroll as it relates to impending cliff.

 

Issue with Betts for example is will he sign with Sox when he becomes a free agent? I'm pretty sure we won't be outbid by 'significant' amount for his services. Thus money required is 'set aside' for Betts. If he signs with another team, that money is still available. Where's the cliff? We're simply use that money to sign someone else. Choice is not Betts versus NO ONE as doomsayers want us to believe.

 

We're also forgetting salaries that will be coming off our books in couple of years.

 

Obviously LIKE ANY OTHER TEAM, we can't pay top dollars for everyone of our players that's looking to become free agents.

 

I just don't see us fighting for last place any time soon.

 

Nobody I know is forgetting other sunken cost salaries coming off the books. (Pablo, HRam & Castillo costs are burned into our minds.)

 

Your point on Betts is missing one key point. His last arb might be $20M, so keeping him or replacing him in kind, will add $10M to the budget.

 

While last year arbs have been rising in recent years, they are still usually way less than FA market value.

 

Chris Sale's last option year is just $13.5M. You think we can keep or replace him at that cost? Add almost $20M right there. (That's Pablo coming off the books just to keep our ace.

 

Replacing Porcello at $20M could be easy, and maybe we even save a couple million.

 

Replacing Kimbrel, Pom, Bogey, JBJ and others will cost much more than their last year's salary number.

 

IMO, We can and will keep some of our stars or replace them with equal value. We will likely still have Devers and Beni and ERod. We'll have a few other good role players, but it seems probable we will lose maybe 2 of our key players and not have the money to replace them without radically changing our spending habits.

 

Yes, this is opinion, conjecture and speculation, but I'm answering a point you made that was equally speculative.

 

BTW, I have never projected last place finishes either, although I would not be surprised by one between 2020 and 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Your point on Betts is missing one key point. His last arb might be $20M, so keeping him or replacing him in kind, will add $10M to the budget.

 

Which is one of the points that shows just how difficult it is to keep a good team together as MLB is economically structured. We tend to think of 'control years' as a big advantage, but a player like Mookie starts getting expensive quickly with the levels arbitration salaries have reached.

[moonslav59]

Which is one of the points that shows just how difficult it is to keep a good team together as MLB is economically structured. We tend to think of 'control years' as a big advantage, but a player like Mookie starts getting expensive quickly with the levels arbitration salaries have reached.

 

Very true. Even more expensive that Sale's 3 years here. That's one reason I loved the Sale trade.

 

The real problem is everyone's jig is up in too short a time.

 

The relief we get from Pablo, HRam and Castillo coming off the books can and should help us keep or replace some of our stars and defray the rising costs or arbs, but there will very likely come a time where the biggest choice of all will be made by Henry: radically increase our budget or let at least a couple big named stars go without replacing in kind. (Again, this is just my opinion.)

 

[Nick]

Your point on Betts is missing one key point. His last arb might be $20M, so keeping him or replacing him in kind, will add $10M to the budget.

 

I'm not missing anything. What I said was we're willing to pay that additional $10M to sign Betts, bringing his 'budget' to $30M per year. But if we don't sign him, we still have $30M in budgeted amount, not $20M. I don't understand your point.

[moonslav59]

Just to change the subject, could Wil Myers and/or Brad Hand be pried away from the Padres with anything we could offer?

 

Wily Myers: 18:$2M, 19:$3M, 20:$20M, 21:$20M, 22:$20M, 23:$20M club option ($1M buyout)

$66M/5 of $85M/6

Luxury Tax Cost: $13.8M

 

Brad Hand: 2 arb years left (2018 est at $4M)

 

Could we sign JD Martinez, trade JBJ for prospects, flip the prospect to SD and add a few more of our own to get these two?

 

Are the Padres in total rebuild mode?

[moonslav59]

From MLBTR...

 

The Red Sox will also chase Ohtani, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald via text: “Would acknowledge our interest. Beyond that, all would be confidential.” Ohtani joining Chris Sale and David Price would make for a rather enticing top of the rotation, needless to say, and he could also factor in as a designated hitter for a Boston club that received uninspiring production there last season in the first year of the post-David Ortiz era.

 

I know we are a long shot on Stanton, but i find this interesting...

Buster Olney of ESPN reports via Twitter that the Marlins are more focused on moving as much of Stanton’s salary as possible than they are on maximizing their prospect return.

Seems we might be able to swoop in and steal the show by offering to take the whole contract.

[Meh]

Just to change the subject, could Wil Myers and/or Brad Hand be pried away from the Padres with anything we could offer?

 

Wily Myers: 18:$2M, 19:$3M, 20:$20M, 21:$20M, 22:$20M, 23:$20M club option ($1M buyout)

$66M/5 of $85M/6

Luxury Tax Cost: $13.8M

 

Brad Hand: 2 arb years left (2018 est at $4M)

 

Could we sign JD Martinez, trade JBJ for prospects, flip the prospect to SD and add a few more of our own to get these two?

 

Are the Padres in total rebuild mode?

 

Padres wanted a top 50 prospect plus for Hand. I would assume something like Groome and a lotto pick like Raudes could get it done. Wil Myers would have a lot of callers. I was thinking the Cards would go after him after they fail to land Stanton.

[moonslav59]

Padres wanted a top 50 prospect plus for Hand. I would assume something like Groome and a lotto pick like Raudes could get it done. Wil Myers would have a lot of callers. I was thinking the Cards would go after him after they fail to land Stanton.

 

They may get Abreu.

[moonslav59]

It seems like our best chance at significantly getting better this winter is through free agency.

 

With so many free agent failures in our history as well as the histories of just about every MLB team, I'm not sure why I still feel pretty confident we will make the right moves.

[Kimmi]

There's too much conflating of signability of our young players with our total payroll as it relates to impending cliff.

 

Issue with Betts for example is will he sign with Sox when he becomes a free agent? I'm pretty sure we won't be outbid by 'significant' amount for his services. Thus money required is 'set aside' for Betts. If he signs with another team, that money is still available. Where's the cliff? We're simply use that money to sign someone else. Choice is not Betts versus NO ONE as doomsayers want us to believe.

 

We're also forgetting salaries that will be coming off our books in couple of years.

 

Obviously LIKE ANY OTHER TEAM, we can't pay top dollars for everyone of our players that's looking to become free agents.

I just don't see us fighting for last place any time soon.

 

That's the thing. We can't pay top dollars for everyone, which is why we need a strong farm system, which we no longer have. With the new CBA and the push for parity among all teams, having a strong farm is even more important than it has been in the past.

[Kimmi]

Which is one of the points that shows just how difficult it is to keep a good team together as MLB is economically structured. We tend to think of 'control years' as a big advantage, but a player like Mookie starts getting expensive quickly with the levels arbitration salaries have reached.

 

Again, it comes down to having a strong farm system. That's what really irks me. Dombrowski took a top rated system that others worked hard to build and made it mediocre in approximately 2 years.

 

Detroit is currently feeling the 'Dombrowski Effect'.

[Kimmi]

Very true. Even more expensive that Sale's 3 years here. That's one reason I loved the Sale trade.

 

The real problem is everyone's jig is up in too short a time.

The relief we get from Pablo, HRam and Castillo coming off the books can and should help us keep or replace some of our stars and defray the rising costs or arbs, but there will very likely come a time where the biggest choice of all will be made by Henry: radically increase our budget or let at least a couple big named stars go without replacing in kind. (Again, this is just my opinion.)

 

 

That is the problem with the 'win now' philosophy. There has to be a balance between long and short term goals.

[Bellhorn04]

Again, it comes down to having a strong farm system. That's what really irks me. Dombrowski took a top rated system that others worked hard to build and made it mediocre in approximately 2 years.

 

But once again, we had virtually no pitching, so there was little choice but to trade a lot of those prospects for pitching, IMO.

 

If you were DD what would you have done to address the pitching?

[Hitch]

This is what this forum has become fairly recently. Over and over and over about the same topics. Clutch, batting order, and the cliff are the biggies.

 

Talksox has always had some spirited discussion and even some s*** storms. Once a topic ran it's course it was done.

 

Now many of the same people keep bring up the same old tired and useless topics.

 

As of late, the topic has been continually brought up by people making sneering, sarcastic or downright childish comments, regarding 'the cliff'. Prompting people to once-again explai their thinking. Which in turn prompts people to complain about people talking about 'the cliff'.

 

It's a pathetic circle-jerk.

[Bellhorn04]

As of late, the topic has been continually brought up by people making sneering, sarcastic or downright childish comments, regarding 'the cliff'. Prompting people to once-again explai their thinking. Which in turn prompts people to complain about people talking about 'the cliff'.

 

It's a pathetic circle-jerk.

 

Relax. It's just talk, there's not that much else to talk about.

[Hitch]

I'm completely relaxed. It's just difficult to read the threads when it's people taking childish pops at each other each and every day. People debating the issues is fine, it's what we are all here for.

[Nick]

I'm completely relaxed. It's just difficult to read the threads when it's people taking childish pops at each other each and every day. People debating the issues is fine, it's what we are all here for.

 

You ignorant little dip s***. Quit being such a whinny little pussy.

 

Now that would be a childish response to your post. I just don't see that much of that here.

 

I simply ignored back and forth between Moon and a700hitter. It was giving me a headache.

 

It has been a slow winter so far. Not much news to discuss. Hang in there Hitch. More the merrier.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's the thing. We can't pay top dollars for everyone, which is why we need a strong farm system, which we no longer have. With the new CBA and the push for parity among all teams, having a strong farm is even more important than it has been in the past.

 

Ding ding ding! You cannot pay top dollar for everyone. Betts right now would be an easy $25 mil per year open market FA. Bogey has probably hurt himself a bit but still looks like a $15-$18 mil per year player. Bradley probably similar. Sale is a $30+ mil per year player. Kimbrel likely $18-20 mil per year. Pom $20 mil per year if he repeats his 2017 performance. Add this to the $45 mil committed to Pedey and Price and you’ve got a ton committed to a small percentage of your team. Without cheap talent surrounding these guys, you won’t have a good team and you won’t have a team under the final lux tax. Every long term penny committed this offseason adds to that total and likely represents saying goodbye to one of your younger core players

[moonslav59]

For those sick of reading about future tough times, stop reading here.

 

Current Core of this team: (Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.)

 

Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M)

Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M)

Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M)

Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary)

Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M)

Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018)

JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018)

Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021

Price $31M until the end of 2022

 

Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs)

Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs)

 

Role Players:

Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M)

Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs

Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs

Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs

ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs

 

 

Sunken cost coming off the books:

HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests)

Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021

Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M

 

Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents.

 

If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then.

 

I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind.

 

Kimmi's point about who fills the other 10-15 slots on the roster is actually a bigger issue than this.