A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

It doesn't exist YET.

 

Saying that something that might happen in the future exists is a logical fallacy. Hypothetical outcomes do not exist.

 

THE POSSIBILITY exists. I don't think anyone is denying that.

 

Of course we are all talking about "possibilities". Even notin's proclamation that the cliff "absolutely exists" is couched with following that up with "...there is plenty of time to take action and multiple options available."

 

The debate is really about what level those possibilities are at right now. Some feel the possibility is very strong and seem to feel like we have a better chance at finding a way to avoid the cliff than reaching it.

 

Obviously nothing exists in the future with 100% certainty- even ideas of something not existing.

 

[moonslav59]

I don't either. But it's something he needs to consider.

 

Trading Bradley makes a lot less sense than trading Kimbrel, but he is apparently considering that already...

 

I hope we don't trade JBJ, but if we sign JD or trade for Stanton, it does make some sense. (Trading Betts or Beni make even less sense.)

 

Personally, I'd rather DH JD or GS and count on HRam to play 1B, thereby keeping JBJ. (Maybe add Duda to cover HRam.)

 

I do like the idea of stocking the pen much more than I did a month or longer ago.

 

Trading pen pieces for prospects might be one way we can build up our farm.

 

How much trade value would Barnes + Hembree have? (or sub Workman, Scott or Maddox) This might be more realistic.

[notin]

It doesn't exist YET.

 

Saying that something that might happen in the future exists is a logical fallacy. Hypothetical outcomes do not exist.

 

THE POSSIBILITY exists. I don't think anyone is denying that.

 

Sure it does.

 

We have a very weak farm and every key player on this team can become a free agent in the next three years. Sure some might be retained, but every aging free agent the Sox sign reduces that number as well.

 

Saying it doesn't exist yet is like being in the path of an oncoming hurricane and then saying its ok because the hurricane doesn't exist yet.

 

A lot can happen to avoid it. A fire sale if the team is awful, which could happen if enough key players get injured. Maybe a couple prospects make huge leaps forward like Chavis did, and Betts before him. But certainly these things, especially the latter one, cannot be counted on.

 

The biggest factor in the Sox favor is that the Braves have gift-wrapped a farm rebuilding starter kit for Dombrowski. Hopefully he can take some advantage.

 

But right now, certainly the future of this farm is a pending hurricane. Does Dombrowski act on it or is he one of those rednecks who plans to wait it out because those weatherman always exaggerate?

[notin]

I hope we don't trade JBJ, but if we sign JD or trade for Stanton, it does make some sense. (Trading Betts or Beni make even less sense.)

 

Personally, I'd rather DH JD or GS and count on HRam to play 1B, thereby keeping JBJ. (Maybe add Duda to cover HRam.)

 

I do like the idea of stocking the pen much more than I did a month or longer ago.

 

Trading pen pieces for prospects might be one way we can build up our farm.

 

How much trade value would Barnes + Hembree have? (or sub Workman, Scott or Maddox) This might be more realistic.

 

The Sox aren't trading for Stanton. As I type this, Brian Sabean and his staff are traveling to Los Angeles to meet with Giancarlo Stanton and convince him to accept a trade to the Bay Area.

 

The fallout then becomes the Cardinals turning to Jose Abreu. The Red Sox cannot and will not top their offer.

 

So after sll tjis happens, Dombrowski will make an offer to JD Martinez. Boras will reject it, because that is what he does.

 

Dombrowski will then sign a more amenable Carlos Santana.

 

Book it..

[notin]

The Sox probably could and should deal pen pieces for farm. But will they get anyone worth it? We gave up crapshoot for Addison Reed. Do we think Barnes or Hembree bring back better?

 

Closers, on the other hand, seem to command a good haul. I blame all you people who overvalued the role. But GMs think the PR of adding a closer pleases fans.

 

So if the Sox deal a reliever, why not Kimbrel?

[moonslav59]

Sure it does.

 

We have a very weak farm and every key player on this team can become a free agent in the next three years. Sure some might be retained, but every aging free agent the Sox sign reduces that number as well.

 

Saying it doesn't exist yet is like being in the path of an oncoming hurricane and then saying its ok because the hurricane doesn't exist yet.

 

A lot can happen to avoid it. A fire sale if the team is awful, which could happen if enough key players get injured. Maybe a couple prospects make huge leaps forward like Chavis did, and Betts before him. But certainly these things, especially the latter one, cannot be counted on.

 

The biggest factor in the Sox favor is that the Braves have gift-wrapped a farm rebuilding starter kit for Dombrowski. Hopefully he can take some advantage.

 

But right now, certainly the future of this farm is a pending hurricane. Does Dombrowski act on it or is he one of those rednecks who plans to wait it out because those weatherman always exaggerate?

 

Good analogy.

 

I do believe the probability of the cliff happening is high- certainly significantly higher than 50%, IMO, but we did just have a pretty decent two recent drafts and our last international signings look pretty good as well, despite the unfortunate loss of Flores.

 

Our past farm gave us Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Vaz, Beni and Devers. Trading Vets brought us ERod, Kelly & Hembree. Trading prospects like Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espinoza and others brought us Sale, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Smith, Thornburg and others. The astounding value of all of these from-the-farm acquired talent far outweighs what we have in the system now. That is clearly undisputable and tangible (not speculative or conceptual). Whether or not the prospects we traded amount to anything or not does not change the fact that we got tangible value from them or for them (via trades).

 

It's highly unlikely we see anything like this recent influx from our farm value in 2-4 years. Yes, there are other ways to build a team than from major contributions from the farm, but until I see our budget consistently going over $225M or so, I'm guessing we hit a significant rough patch 2-3 years from now. I also see no evidence that DD is a master of rebuilding farm systems with low draft picks and an easier international signing system of the past. Expecting him to do better under more difficult circumstances is not "probable".

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox aren't trading for Stanton. As I type this, Brian Sabean and his staff are traveling to Los Angeles to meet with Giancarlo Stanton and convince him to accept a trade to the Bay Area.

 

The fallout then becomes the Cardinals turning to Jose Abreu. The Red Sox cannot and will not top their offer.

 

So after sll tjis happens, Dombrowski will make an offer to JD Martinez. Boras will reject it, because that is what he does.

 

Dombrowski will then sign a more amenable Carlos Santana.

 

Book it..

 

Can you tell me why trading several good prospects for Abreu is a better choice than signing Santana?

 

While I agree Abreu is marginally better than Santana, it is not by a whole lot. His power numbers are better, and that is what we need most, but Santana is clearly an upgrade over Moreland and will probably count less on the luxury tax budget. The QO penalty should be much less than the prospects needed to get Abreu.

 

You are wishing we trade Kimbrel for prospects, because of the impending cliff, so why look to trade prospects for Abreu at the same time?

[Bellhorn04]

Sure it does.

 

We have a very weak farm and every key player on this team can become a free agent in the next three years. Sure some might be retained, but every aging free agent the Sox sign reduces that number as well.

 

Saying it doesn't exist yet is like being in the path of an oncoming hurricane and then saying its ok because the hurricane doesn't exist yet.

 

A lot can happen to avoid it.

 

No.

 

An oncoming hurricane can be predicted with a very high degree of accuracy. You're talking about something that's going to happen in the next day or two.

 

And nothing can be done to stop it.

Edited December 1, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

The Sox aren't trading for Stanton. As I type this, Brian Sabean and his staff are traveling to Los Angeles to meet with Giancarlo Stanton and convince him to accept a trade to the Bay Area.

 

The fallout then becomes the Cardinals turning to Jose Abreu. The Red Sox cannot and will not top their offer.

 

So after sll tjis happens, Dombrowski will make an offer to JD Martinez. Boras will reject it, because that is what he does.

 

Dombrowski will then sign a more amenable Carlos Santana.

 

Book it..

 

I'm fine with that plan. I don't want to package JBJ for Abreu or Stanton.

[mvp 78]

Sure it does.

 

We have a very weak farm and every key player on this team can become a free agent in the next three years. Sure some might be retained, but every aging free agent the Sox sign reduces that number as well.

 

Saying it doesn't exist yet is like being in the path of an oncoming hurricane and then saying its ok because the hurricane doesn't exist yet.

 

A lot can happen to avoid it. A fire sale if the team is awful, which could happen if enough key players get injured. Maybe a couple prospects make huge leaps forward like Chavis did, and Betts before him. But certainly these things, especially the latter one, cannot be counted on.

 

The biggest factor in the Sox favor is that the Braves have gift-wrapped a farm rebuilding starter kit for Dombrowski. Hopefully he can take some advantage.

 

But right now, certainly the future of this farm is a pending hurricane. Does Dombrowski act on it or is he one of those rednecks who plans to wait it out because those weatherman always exaggerate?

 

No, it's more like building a house on the beach that is in a hurricane zone and is dealing with erosion. There are things you can do to prevent the house from collapsing into the sea, some of which might be very difficult. However, a big storm could come and swoop the house away, or you could be fine for a few decades.

[dgalehouse]

Sure it does.

 

We have a very weak farm and every key player on this team can become a free agent in the next three years. Sure some might be retained, but every aging free agent the Sox sign reduces that number as well.

 

Saying it doesn't exist yet is like being in the path of an oncoming hurricane and then saying its ok because the hurricane doesn't exist yet.

 

A lot can happen to avoid it. A fire sale if the team is awful, which could happen if enough key players get injured. Maybe a couple prospects make huge leaps forward like Chavis did, and Betts before him. But certainly these things, especially the latter one, cannot be counted on.

 

The biggest factor in the Sox favor is that the Braves have gift-wrapped a farm rebuilding starter kit for Dombrowski. Hopefully he can take some advantage.

 

But right now, certainly the future of this farm is a pending hurricane. Does Dombrowski act on it or is he one of those rednecks who plans to wait it out because those weatherman always exaggerate?

. That might actually make a good song lyric. " The Sox go off the cliff like a redneck in a hurricane. " It might not be the best analogy , since " rednecks " have not been the main victims of hurricanes in recent years , but at least it is acceptable , as " rednecks " are one of the few groups that it is okay to take shots at. Amen.

[Bellhorn04]

And another thing - if the Red Sox Cliff does come, it ain't gonna kill anyone.

[mvp 78]

And another thing - if the Red Sox Cliff does come, it ain't gonna kill anyone.

 

Nope, the last place finishes will only fuel SBF to live longer in hateful misery.

[mvp 78]

Schrodinger's Cliff

[SoxnCycles]

And another thing - if the Red Sox Cliff does come, it ain't gonna kill anyone.

 

Are you suree about that?

Some people losing it over the mere suggestion of a cliff.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you suree about that?

Some people losing it over the mere suggestion of a cliff.

 

It'd be fine if it was a mere suggestion. It's been more like a daily hammering.

[SoxnCycles]

It'd be fine if it was a mere suggestion. It's been more like a daily hammering.

 

On both sides, to be honest...

[moonslav59]

31 Sox fans commited suicide during last place seasons of the Ben regime.

[mvp 78]

On both sides, to be honest...

 

If moon stopped mentioning it, we'd never hear of the cliff again. "Both sides" is disingenuous.

[mvp 78]

31 Sox fans commited suicide during last place seasons of the Ben regime.

 

Delete your account.

[moonslav59]

If moon stopped mentioning it, we'd never hear of the cliff again. "Both sides" is disingenuous.

 

Many times I speak of it, it is in response to someone else who brought it up.

[Slasher9]

I hope we don't trade JBJ, but if we sign JD or trade for Stanton, it does make some sense. (Trading Betts or Beni make even less sense.)

 

 

Giancarlo >>>>>>>>>>>>JBj > Beni

[Bellhorn04]

Many times I speak of it, it is in response to someone else who brought it up.

 

Who brought it up in the first place?

 

Who has posted the most about it, by a wide margin?

[moonslav59]

Giancarlo >>>>>>>>>>>>JBj > Beni

 

JBJ might be better than Beni, but the extra years of team control makes Beni >JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Who brought it up in the first place?

 

Who has posted the most about it, by a wide margin?

 

Maybe kimmo brought it up first? I'm not sure who has brought it back up the most.

[mvp 78]

Maybe kimmo brought it up first? I'm not sure who has brought it back up the most.

 

Don't throw sweet Kimmi under the bus. It's not her fault that you can't help yourself to some good cliff talk.

 

the cliff!!!

[moonslav59]

Don't throw sweet Kimmi under the bus. It's not her fault that you can't help yourself to some good cliff talk.

 

I'm sure I'm near or at the top of the list for most posts on the subject, but as a percent of posts made maybe not number one .

[Kimmi]

It doesn't exist YET.

 

Saying that something that might happen in the future exists is a logical fallacy. Hypothetical outcomes do not exist.

 

THE POSSIBILITY exists. I don't think anyone is denying that.

 

The cliff exists, until it doesn't.

 

We have not yet reached it, but it's there.

[Kimmi]

The Sox probably could and should deal pen pieces for farm. But will they get anyone worth it? We gave up crapshoot for Addison Reed. Do we think Barnes or Hembree bring back better?

 

Closers, on the other hand, seem to command a good haul. I blame all you people who overvalued the role. But GMs think the PR of adding a closer pleases fans.

 

So if the Sox deal a reliever, why not Kimbrel?

 

IMO, we should have never traded for Kimbrel to begin with. Overpayment in both prospects and salary equals double whammy.

[Northern Star]

The offseason is way too long, and this place is reduced to arguing non-stop about the same thing every f***ing day.