A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[harmony]

I'm sure nobody will let me forget my position, if Hosmer goes on to do well.

 

I guess I'll never understand what so many people see in a 1Bman who sucks every other year and is barely decent the rest of the time, and whose one redeeming skill, defense, has now become a big negative.

 

His clubhouse leadership must be off-the-charts great!

 

I realize JD is a gamble, but it's a shorter gamble, and he's not had an off year for 4 years. Hosmer's had 2.

I've already been reminded that I took the field against the Red Sox in the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes this offseason.

[mvp 78]

Let's revisit the issue in one year, two years and three years.

 

I'm sure this will be revisited every year until JD is no longer a Red Sox and Hosmer is no longer a Padre.

[harmony]

I'm sure nobody will let me forget my position, if Hosmer goes on to do well.

 

I guess I'll never understand what so many people see in a 1Bman who sucks every other year and is barely decent the rest of the time, and whose one redeeming skill, defense, has now become a big negative.

 

His clubhouse leadership must be off-the-charts great!

 

I realize JD is a gamble, but it's a shorter gamble, and he's not had an off year for 4 years. Hosmer's had 2.

In terms of leadership skills, J.D. Martinez reminds me a tad of Adrian Gonzalez, another talented hitter.

 

In the three years before joining the Red Sox, Gonzalez had posted an OPS of .910 and an OPS+ of 151 in 452 games.

 

In the past three years Martinez has posted an OPS of .943 and an OPS+ of 148 in only 397 games.

 

Gonzalez, who joined the Red Sox when he was about 22 months younger than Martinez's current age, had a stellar first season in Boston, posting an fWAR of 6.1, a bWAR of 6.9, an OPS of .957 and and OPS+ of 155. During that 2011 season Gonzalez signed a seven-year extension through his 36th birthday with an AAV of $22 million ... the same AAV that Martinez has in his five-year contract through his 35th birthday.

Edited March 5, 2018 by harmony

[sk7326]

DRS does account for catching the ball.

 

UZR/150 does, too, but they do put a lot of emphasis on the amount of plays made out of possible plays possible, which isn't a bad thing for any defender to be judged by.

 

UZR shows Hosmer is a plus on ErrR (over 3.0 for 3 straight years), so his bad numbers would be worse without that factoring in. He's a big minus on range (-11.2 and -4.4 the last 2 years). He's minus on DPR (-0.3 and -0.2)

 

On Inside Edge Fielding, he's made less than 60%

of "likely plays" in 2 of his last 3 seasons (78% career). On "even plays", he's been horrible over the last 2 years:

 

14.3% in 2016

20.0% in 2017

 

These are plays most 1Bmen make 40-60% of the time.

 

Is this related to batted balls or throws from other infielders

[moonslav59]

Is this related to batted balls or throws from other infielders

 

ErrR is, and that is part of UZR/150.

 

I'm not sure about Edge, but I think DRS and EDGE include all plays made or that could be made.

[moonslav59]

OPS from 2016-2017

 

.985 JD Martinez

.851 Betts

.819 Devers

.811 HRam

.799 Pedey

.785 Beni

.784 JBJ

.778 Nunez

.776 Bogey

.746 Moreland

.741 Leon

.683 Vazquez

.653 B Holt

 

Not bad having 9 guys over .775, but we have to start a catcher...

 

[MADSTORK]

In terms of leadership skills, J.D. Martinez reminds me a tad of Adrian Gonzalez, another talented hitter.

 

In the three years before joining the Red Sox, Gonzalez had posted an OPS of .910 and an OPS+ of 151 in 452 games.

 

In the past three years Martinez has posted an OPS of .943 and an OPS+ of 148 in only 397 games.

 

Gonzalez, who joined the Red Sox when he was about 22 months younger than Martinez's current age, had a stellar first season in Boston, posting an fWAR of 6.1, a bWAR of 6.9, an OPS of .957 and and OPS+ of 155. During that 2011 season Gonzalez signed a seven-year extension through his 36th birthday with an AAV of $22 million ... the same AAV that Martinez has in his five-year contract through his 35th birthday.

 

 

Your forgetting a very important question. Does JD like to play on Sunday nights?

[moonslav59]

Your forgetting a very important question. Does JD like to play on Sunday nights?

 

LOL

 

That can be his day off.

[moonslav59]

I don't know about you all, but I can't wait until opening day!

 

[SoxnCycles]

I don't know about you all, but I can't wait until opening day!

 

 

Yup, after one of the most boring off seasons on record, Opening Day can't get here fast enough.

Good thing the Celtics and Bruins are still worth watching.

[Nick]

Win the Division

 

Sale, Price, Pom/Porcello/E Rod.

 

Solid lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Hanley, Devers, Xander, Pedey, Vazquez and JBJ.

 

Solid pen with Kimbrel, Smith and cast of thousand.

 

Pitching still the key.

 

At some point, we'll need to re-set the luxury tax payroll. Winning in 2018 would certainly go long way in bringing our finances in order. It will give us another year for our farm to 'mature'. It's not too much to expect

one rookie on the 25 man roster each year.

 

2014 Xander/JBJ/Vazquez

2015 Betts/E Rod

2016 Shaw (traded)

2017 Beni

2018 Devers

Edited March 6, 2018 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Win the Division

 

Sale, Price, Pom/Porcello/E Rod.

 

Solid lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Hanley, Devers, Xander, Pedey, Vazquez and JBJ.

 

Solid pen with Kimbrel, Smith and cast of thousand.

 

Pitching still the key.

 

At some point, we'll need to re-set the luxury tax payroll. Winning in 2018 would certainly go long way in bringing our finances in order. It will give us another year for our farm to 'mature'. It's not too much to expect

one rookie on the 25 man roster each year.

 

2014 Xander/JBJ/Vazquez

2015 Betts/E Rod

2016 Shaw (traded)

2017 Beni

2018 Devers

 

Didn't we reset the luxury tax last season?

[oldtimer]

Yup, after one of the most boring off seasons on record, Opening Day can't get here fast enough.

Good thing the Celtics and Bruins are still worth watching.

 

I'm a big fan of March Madness, so I will be entertained for the next few weeks with that alone.

[oldtimer]

Win the Division

 

Sale, Price, Pom/Porcello/E Rod.

 

Solid lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Hanley, Devers, Xander, Pedey, Vazquez and JBJ.

 

Solid pen with Kimbrel, Smith and cast of thousand.

 

Pitching still the key.

 

At some point, we'll need to re-set the luxury tax payroll. Winning in 2018 would certainly go long way in bringing our finances in order. It will give us another year for our farm to 'mature'. It's not too much to expect

one rookie on the 25 man roster each year.

 

2014 Xander/JBJ/Vazquez

2015 Betts/E Rod

2016 Shaw (traded)

2017 Beni

2018 Devers

 

Maybe someone is being Groomed for that this year. Hope so!

 

It will be interesting to see where our 25 roster ends up.

[moonslav59]

Didn't we reset the luxury tax last season?

 

Yes, and I can't see us striving to reset again next winter. Maybe after 2019, but if we haven't won a ring in these next two years, I think Henry will keep the big spending window open one more year at the maximum tax rate. A reset will likely take place after 2019 or 2020, which will coincide with the end of our window of top competitiveness.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm a big fan of March Madness, so I will be entertained for the next few weeks with that alone.

 

As am I. Ditto Div I NCAA basketball. Not the NBA and, really, not the NFL (except for the occasional Patriots game). In sheer minutes of watching, the Sox with 162 games a season (plus playoffs) is an addiction.

[Kimmi]

I am not a fan of March Madness, but I had the Olympics to keep me occupied for the past two weeks. I developed a whole new enjoyment and appreciation for the cross country skiing events, in particular, the biathlon.

 

I've always been intrigued by curling. I still don't understand all the strategies in the game, but the math and physics involved is inspiring. John Shuster, skipper of the US team, is my new hero.

 

And the figure skating. 'Nuff said.

 

Yes, I know I have strange tastes.

[moonslav59]

Win the Division

 

Sale, Price, Pom/Porcello/E Rod.

 

Solid lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Hanley, Devers, Xander, Pedey, Vazquez and JBJ.

 

Solid pen with Kimbrel, Smith and cast of thousand.

 

Pitching still the key.

 

At some point, we'll need to re-set the luxury tax payroll. Winning in 2018 would certainly go long way in bringing our finances in order. It will give us another year for our farm to 'mature'. It's not too much to expect

one rookie on the 25 man roster each year.

 

2014 Xander/JBJ/Vazquez

2015 Betts/E Rod

2016 Shaw (traded)

2017 Beni

2018 Devers

 

I don't see the same type future rookie value level, but there's chances of surprises. For example, Betts was drafted 172nd in 2011 and only reached number 10 in the soxprospects rankings by the fall of 2013. I doubt we have someone like Betts hiding in the system, but who knows. We've become accustomed to not believing in any of our starting pitcher prospects after dud after dud.

 

Here's my look at possible prospect arrival times...

 

2018: Devers, Travis, Beeks

 

2019: Chavis, Ockimey, Shawaryn, D Hernandez, Chatham, Thompson

 

2020: Groome, Houck, Brannen, Scherff

 

2021-2022: Mata, D Diaz

 

[moonslav59]

Is there any MLB team out there that does not have a 25 man roster crunch and could use 2 of our out-of-options players?

 

In theory, I'd like to make a 2 or 3 for one trade for a decent 5/6th starter or a better LH'd RP'er than we have. My idea would look something like this:

 

Trade:

Johnson, Marrero and Travis

For:

A better SP'er than Johnson

 

Or,

 

Trade:

Hembree, Marrero and Ockimey (Beeks?)

For:

A LH'd RP'er (or 5/6 starter)

 

Or, we could just trade one out-of-options player for a player with options or a prospect.

[Nick]

I don't see the same type future rookie value level, but there's chances of surprises. For example, Betts was drafted 172nd in 2011 and only reached number 10 in the soxprospects rankings by the fall of 2013. I doubt we have someone like Betts hiding in the system, but who knows. We've become accustomed to not believing in any of our starting pitcher prospects after dud after dud.

 

Here's my look at possible prospect arrival times...

 

2018: Devers, Travis, Beeks

 

2019: Chavis, Ockimey, Shawaryn, D Hernandez, Chatham, Thompson

 

2020: Groome, Houck, Brannen, Scherff

 

2021-2022: Mata, D Diaz

 

 

Current luxury tax payroll of $230M, next year's luxury tax limit at $206M, thus we can spend up to $246M before the second penalty phase kicks in. Moon has current arbitration eligible players at payroll of $37M. Even by most conservative estimates, I think it will get a 50% raise, or say $20M for easy numbers. Now we're up to luxury tax payroll of $250M, exceeding the $246M second tier penalty.

 

$230M includes Kimbrel's $13M and Pom's $8.5M, Kelly's $3.8M. This is why I've proposed making sure Hanley's 2019 payroll not vest (if we can win it all with 400 at bats from him) and possibly trade Porcello so we can re sign Pom (that's assuming we agree that Pom has better future than Porcello, otherwise keep Porcello and offer Pom a qualifying offer). Two big contracts need to come off the books if we want to keep Pom and keep in tact all of our arbitration eligible players.

Edited March 7, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Current luxury tax payroll of $230M, next year's luxury tax limit at $206M, thus we can spend up to $246M before the second penalty phase kicks in. Moon has current arbitration eligible players at payroll of $37M. Even by most conservative estimates, I think it will get a 50% raise, or say $20M for easy numbers. Now we're up to luxury tax payroll of $250M, exceeding the $246M second tier penalty.

 

$230M includes Kimbrel's $13M and Pom's $8.5M, Kelly's $3.8M. This is why I've proposed making sure Hanley's 2019 payroll not vest (if we can win it all with 400 at bats from him) and possibly trade Porcello so we can re sign Pom (that's assuming we agree that Pom has better future than Porcello, otherwise keep Porcello and offer Pom a qualifying offer). Two big contracts need to come off the books if we want to keep Pom and keep in tact all of our arbitration eligible players.

 

I agree in making sure HRam's contract does not vest.

 

We could trade or DFA Holt ($2M+) and one from Leon & Swihart ($2M+).

 

We might get by without replacing Kimbrel and Kelly, but we'll probably need to acquire one good RP'er (via trade, if we're looking to save money).

 

We will need to replace Pom, if we want to stay highly competitive, assuming a drop off at closer.

 

Remember, the tax goes up for being 2 years over the limit, so we may not try to go just below the $40M over mark. We may try to just go over by $20-30M. That would create serious budget issues and would probably mean we trade Porcello, JBJ or Bogey.

 

We'll know more after this season about guys like Wright, ERod, Nunez, Devers, and maybe we unload some salary, if we trust an in-house replacement.

 

I do not think we have an in-house replacement for POM. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel, but Thornburg only has 2 years of team control left.

[Nick]

I agree in making sure HRam's contract does not vest.

 

We could trade or DFA Holt ($2M+) and one from Leon & Swihart ($2M+).

 

We might get by without replacing Kimbrel and Kelly, but we'll probably need to acquire one good RP'er (via trade, if we're looking to save money).

 

We will need to replace Pom, if we want to stay highly competitive, assuming a drop off at closer.

 

Remember, the tax goes up for being 2 years over the limit, so we may not try to go just below the $40M over mark. We may try to just go over by $20-30M. That would create serious budget issues and would probably mean we trade Porcello, JBJ or Bogey.

 

We'll know more after this season about guys like Wright, ERod, Nunez, Devers, and maybe we unload some salary, if we trust an in-house replacement.

 

I do not think we have an in-house replacement for POM. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel, but Thornburg only has 2 years of team control left.

 

This is why when someone says to go sign a starting pitching depth I just chuckle. If I'm a betting man, I doubt we go past the secondary penalty phase. Now if you say to sign so and so and get rid of so and so, then I'll take it seriously. Throwing out random acquisition ideas without knowing the consequences is just fantasy baseball.

 

We have painted our selves into a corner. Our potential moves are easy to read with our payroll.

 

ps it's not a bad thing, we think we can win it all with our line up.

Edited March 7, 2018 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I am not a fan of March Madness, but I had the Olympics to keep me occupied for the past two weeks. I developed a whole new enjoyment and appreciation for the cross country skiing events, in particular, the biathlon.

 

I've always been intrigued by curling. I still don't understand all the strategies in the game, but the math and physics involved is inspiring. John Shuster, skipper of the US team, is my new hero.

 

And the figure skating. 'Nuff said.

 

Yes, I know I have strange tastes.

 

I will no longer watch US college sports if I can help it. It's a completely corrupt enterprise.

[moonslav59]

This is why when someone says to go sign a starting pitching depth I just chuckle. If I'm a betting man, I doubt we go past the secondary penalty phase. Now if you say to sign so and so and get rid of so and so, then I'll take it seriously. Throwing out random acquisition ideas without knowing the consequences is just fantasy baseball.

 

We have painted our selves into a corner. Our potential moves are easy to read with our payroll.

 

ps it's not a bad thing, we think we can win it all with our line up.

 

One possible move could be to trade JBJ and add his salary to the $4M and get a very good SP'er in return.

 

I do NOT want to trade JBJ, but if we need pitching, it is an option.

 

I think we need great OF defense to make up for our weak IF defense, so I want to keep JBJ, but we lose very little on offense by trading him, assuming HRam is hitting well.

 

We basically use Nunez or Pedey and Moreland to take JBJ's offensive slot in the order.

 

JDM moves to LF. Beni plays CF,a nd Betts stays in RF.

 

HRam DHs vs RHPs and plays 1B vs LHPs.

 

Moreland plays 1B vs RHPs, and Nunez DHs vs LHPs (once Pedey returns). Pedey rests vs some RHPs, which gives Nunes more PAs. Nunez also plays LF when JD DHs (keeping HRam from vesting).

[SoxnCycles]

I will no longer watch US college sports if I can help it. It's a completely corrupt enterprise.

 

Ain't that the truth.

[Nick]

One possible move could be to trade JBJ and add his salary to the $4M and get a very good SP'er in return.

 

I do NOT want to trade JBJ, but if we need pitching, it is an option.

 

I think we need great OF defense to make up for our weak IF defense, so I want to keep JBJ, but we lose very little on offense by trading him, assuming HRam is hitting well.

 

We basically use Nunez or Pedey and Moreland to take JBJ's offensive slot in the order.

 

JDM moves to LF. Beni plays CF,a nd Betts stays in RF.

 

HRam DHs vs RHPs and plays 1B vs LHPs.

 

Moreland plays 1B vs RHPs, and Nunez DHs vs LHPs (once Pedey returns). Pedey rests vs some RHPs, which gives Nunes more PAs. Nunez also plays LF when JD DHs (keeping HRam from vesting).

 

If one of starter goes down, that's a distinct possibility. Throw in a prospect or two and we may get a pretty good pitcher in return.

 

I THINK WE ARE ALL IN FOR 2018 AND 2019.

[moonslav59]

If one of starter goes down, that's a distinct possibility. Throw in a prospect or two and we may get a pretty good pitcher in return.

 

I THINK WE ARE ALL IN FOR 2018 AND 2019.

 

If we don't win it all in the next two years, I think Henry extends the spending (and high tax) window one more year, then we re-set the tax.

[Nick]

I will no longer watch US college sports if I can help it. It's a completely corrupt enterprise.

 

Answer to corruption in college basketball according to talking heads is to pay the athletes.

 

Are they really THAT DUMB?

 

If you pay the 'students-athletes' living wages, no one thinks that someone out there won't offer MORE money to entice a player to come?

 

And what are they really saying? Obviously they think college education has NO VALUE to them. These morons don't realize how expensive it is to attend Duke, just as an example?

 

What about title IX issues and non revenue sports? No one thinks that someone will challenge the policy of only football and basketball players getting 'paid'?

 

Start a minor league system or better yet, make high school seniors eligible for the draft.

Edited March 7, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

If we don't win it all in the next two years, I think Henry extends the spending (and high tax) window one more year, then we re-set the tax.

 

I can see that.

[oldtimer]

Is there any MLB team out there that does not have a 25 man roster crunch and could use 2 of our out-of-options players?

 

In theory, I'd like to make a 2 or 3 for one trade for a decent 5/6th starter or a better LH'd RP'er than we have. My idea would look something like this:

 

Trade:

Johnson, Marrero and Travis

For:

A better SP'er than Johnson

 

Or,

 

Trade:

Hembree, Marrero and Ockimey (Beeks?)

For:

A LH'd RP'er (or 5/6 starter)

 

Or, we could just trade one out-of-options player for a player with options or a prospect.

 

Any trade that we make should consider what we do if Bogeyor Devers happen to be injured. Some of our options are Nunez, Marrero and Lin. We need to keep at least one utility player who can play solid defense at those positions. Marrero and Lin can do that, Nunez can but is not as capable defensively.