A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Everyone will be in on next years FAs except for Boston. The market will explode again. The Dodgers and Yankees will drive the market

 

Once the Dodgers and Yankees reset their tax, I do think they may sign 2 big free agents each, but I'm not sure how much other teams will go large and long. The "long" has been killing teams for a while now, and most teams are wising up.

[harmony]

Once the Dodgers and Yankees reset their tax, I do think they may sign 2 big free agents each, but I'm not sure how much other teams will go large and long. The "long" has been killing teams for a while now, and most teams are wising up.

This offseason the San Diego Padres have gone eight years and the Milwaukee Brewers five years (the Chicago Cubs six years and the Red Sox five years).

[moonslav59]

This offseason the San Diego Padres have gone eight years and the Milwaukee Brewers five years (the Chicago Cubs six years and the Red Sox five years).

 

Hence, the word "most."

[oldtimer]

Hence, the word "most."

 

Also, I would say the longer contracts will be offered to younger players while 30 and over are likely to see a cap at 5 years.

[moonslav59]

Also, I would say the longer contracts will be offered to younger players while 30 and over are likely to see a cap at 5 years.

 

More players will get shorter contracts than predicted vs longer ones like Hoze got.

[Spudboy]

More players will get shorter contracts than predicted vs longer ones like Hoze got.

 

The Pads FO must suck bigly.

 

What a dumb deal.

[moonslav59]

The Pads FO must suck bigly.

 

What a dumb deal.

 

It would have been dumb had it been 25% the money and 50% the years.

[Kimmi]

If free agent contracts are down again next year, you can bet a strike is coming in 2020 or '21.

 

It's very possible, but the players agreed to the current CBA, which is largely to blame for the contracts being down.

[Kimmi]

Everyone will be in?

 

No doubt there are going to be some big deals signed by the elite players. But I think some of the trends we saw this year aren't going away, ever, like the extreme reluctance to give out big contracts to non-elite players.

 

I would have to agree.

 

And even the elite players might not get the deals that were widely talked about entering this offseason. $300 mil /10 yrs was predicted by some for Harper. After the way this offseason played out, I can't see him getting close to that.

[Kimmi]

The Pads FO must suck bigly.

 

What a dumb deal.

 

That was a very dumb deal.

[sk7326]

The Hosmer deal was staggering. Essentially the Red Sox are paying at most for Martinez the minimum guarantee that Hosmer was getting. Yes, Hosmer is young for a FA, and yes there is reason to believe in his future. And yes, there is reason to think he is a good 1B (since defensive metrics are range related and 1B receiving is the larger part of the gig). But again, not nearly enough positive to justify the length - especially where the Padres are on the development cycle.

[Bellhorn04]

The Hosmer deal was staggering. Essentially the Red Sox are paying at most for Martinez the minimum guarantee that Hosmer was getting. Yes, Hosmer is young for a FA, and yes there is reason to believe in his future. And yes, there is reason to think he is a good 1B (since defensive metrics are range related and 1B receiving is the larger part of the gig). But again, not nearly enough positive to justify the length - especially where the Padres are on the development cycle.

 

I don't disagree. I think there may have been a little PR involved. It feels like a team tossing a bone to their long-suffering fans, like when Washington gave that staggering deal to Jayson Werth.

[notin]

It would have been dumb had it been 25% the money and 50% the years.

 

It's like the Porcello deal; they're hoping to get the best years during the money.

 

I don't like the length of Hosmer's deal though. ..

[moonslav59]

It's like the Porcello deal; they're hoping to get the best years during the money.

 

I don't like the length of Hosmer's deal though. ..

 

I don't like any part of the deal.

 

I wouldn't have wanted him at $19M/1 or $38M/2 years. He's a zero WAR player every other year and now sucks on defense. There's very little upside, despite his age.

 

Morrison & Duda will have better seasons at a fraction of the cost and years.

 

I'm sticking with my 25% money and 50% length, which comes to $36M/4. Maybe I'd go as far as $40M/4.

Edited March 3, 2018 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

Moon is right.

 

The Padres shot themselves in the foot and s*** in their pants on this one.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't like any part of the deal.

 

I wouldn't have wanted him at $19M/1 or $38M/2 years. He's a zero WAR player every other year and now sucks on defense. There's very little upside, despite his age.

 

Morrison & Duda will have better seasons at a fraction of the cost and years.

 

I'm sticking with my 25% money and 50% length, which comes to $36M/4. Maybe I'd go as far as $40M/4.

 

I think you're going a little overboard predicting that Duda will have a better season than Hosmer.

[Hugh2]

Hello to all!

 

I think it's been a long time since I've posted. I've been very busy with life! I lost a 400K account at work due to outsourcing, got married, and now have a baby on the way, and all pretty much happened one month after another so I've been very busy to say the least.

 

But now that spring training is underway I feel compelled to find a little time here and there to get on my soapbox and talk sports. I love the JDM deal, I wasn't crazy about him at the end of 2017 but as time went on I really sold myself on him.

 

From 2015-2017 the active leader in SLG % is Mike Trout, can you guess who is tied with Giancarlo Stanton next on that list? J.D. Martinez!!! They've actually been a very good comp for each other over the last few years. The plater who technically still qualifies who I ommited from this list is no other than David Ortiz at #1.

 

Now I'm not going to try and say J.D. Martinez is a better player than Giancarlo Stanton, and I'd be willing to bet in ten years from now Stanton will be the one with the overall better career. I do believe that J.D. Martinez makes this offense better than Stanton makes the offense of the Yankees better. This aquasition was Yuuuuuuge.

[Kimmi]

I don't like any part of the deal.

 

I wouldn't have wanted him at $19M/1 or $38M/2 years. He's a zero WAR player every other year and now sucks on defense. There's very little upside, despite his age.

 

Morrison & Duda will have better seasons at a fraction of the cost and years.

 

I'm sticking with my 25% money and 50% length, which comes to $36M/4. Maybe I'd go as far as $40M/4.

 

I don't think Hosmer is as bad as you think he is. I very much doubt he'll be a zero WAR player this year. I'd have gladly taken him on a contract of 4 years or less.

[Kimmi]

Hello to all!

 

I think it's been a long time since I've posted. I've been very busy with life! I lost a 400K account at work due to outsourcing, got married, and now have a baby on the way, and all pretty much happened one month after another so I've been very busy to say the least.

 

But now that spring training is underway I feel compelled to find a little time here and there to get on my soapbox and talk sports. I love the JDM deal, I wasn't crazy about him at the end of 2017 but as time went on I really sold myself on him.

 

From 2015-2017 the active leader in SLG % is Mike Trout, can you guess who is tied with Giancarlo Stanton next on that list? J.D. Martinez!!! They've actually been a very good comp for each other over the last few years. The plater who technically still qualifies who I ommited from this list is no other than David Ortiz at #1.

 

Now I'm not going to try and say J.D. Martinez is a better player than Giancarlo Stanton, and I'd be willing to bet in ten years from now Stanton will be the one with the overall better career. I do believe that J.D. Martinez makes this offense better than Stanton makes the offense of the Yankees better. This aquasition was Yuuuuuuge.

 

Congrats on the marriage and the baby on the way Hugh.

 

I agree that the addition of JD makes a bigger impact on our offense than Stanton makes to the Yankees offense.

[notin]

I think you're going a little overboard predicting that Duda will have a better season than Hosmer.

 

I agree that Duda will be a better value and that Duda plus whoever that $17million difference is spent on will combine for a better season than Hosmer...

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that Duda will be a better value and that Duda plus whoever that $17million difference is spent on will combine for a better season than Hosmer...

 

moon didn't just say better value, though. He said better season, period.

[moonslav59]

I think you're going a little overboard predicting that Duda will have a better season than Hosmer.

 

I think you value just last year's numbers too highly.

 

Go back 2, 3 or 4 years in sample size and Duda blows Hosmer away in offense, especially power, something we sorely needed.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you value just last year's numbers too highly.

 

Go back 2, 3 or 4 years in sample size and Duda blows Hosmer away in offense, especially power, something we sorely needed.

 

I propose a friendly wager. I'll take Hosmer over Duda in fWAR.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Hosmer is as bad as you think he is. I very much doubt he'll be a zero WAR player this year. I'd have gladly taken him on a contract of 4 years or less.

 

We'll see.

 

He sucks on defense now.

 

He's a roller coaster on offense.

 

He's always played in a low pressure city.

 

He's not worth much more than what Morrison got.

 

He's really not good at all, except every other year.

 

On waht basis do you think he will suddenly become consistent? Even then, he's not great during his good years, and one can easily argue he won't repeat his outlier year that just happened to be a contract year on a team with no playoff hopes.

 

Hosmer at $40M/4 is worse than signing Morrison.

[moonslav59]

I propose a friendly wager. I'll take Hosmer over Duda in fWAR.

 

If they are within 50 PAs, okay, though I'd prefer a bet on OPS.

 

I'll take Morrison and give you 3:2 odds.

[notin]

I propose a friendly wager. I'll take Hosmer over Duda in fWAR.

 

 

Will Duda see enough time in the field to make that an even comparison?

[notin]

He's always played in a low pressure city.

 

And if you're one of those"clutch/pressure" guys, his career .558OPS in the World Series didn't help his cause. ..

[Bellhorn04]

If they are within 50 PAs, okay, though I'd prefer a bet on OPS.

 

I'll take Morrison and give you 3:2 odds.

 

How about this-Hosmer vs. Duda based on OPS+, minimum 400 PA's?

[moonslav59]

How about this-Hosmer vs. Duda based on OPS+, minimum 400 PA's?

 

Sure, with a side bet on Hosmer vs Morrison on OPS and 400+ PAs each.

 

Last 3 years, which includes 2 good years from Hosmer as he is up-down-up-down...

 

(I'm not hedging my bet, as I do think Duda and Morrison will do better this year, but if they just come close, it's an obvious win for Duda and Morrison, who were both signed for a small fraction of Hosmer's cost.)

 

OPS

Hosmer .822 (.169 ISO)

LDuda .812 (.248 ISO)

 

Last 4 years (2 good and 2 bad for Hosmer)

L Duda .818 (.242 ISO)

Hosmer .799 (.160 ISO) Horrible numbers for a 1Bman

 

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, with a side bet on Hosmer vs Morrison on OPS and 400+ PAs each.

 

Deal.