A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Marrero can't even hit AAA pitching. He popped a few out last year, but is really bad at the plate. He's not a guy to hold onto.

 

I like Lin better than Marrero for sure.

 

He's been okay vs LHPs (.710 career) but sucks vs RHPs (.487). He was at .944 vs LHPs last year (.425 v RHPs).

[moonslav59]

Who ranked Brannen that high? I can't find a single source that has ranked him at all, let alone as the fifth best non-pitching prospect.

 

That really doesn't mean anything about his future, but it does mean two things.

 

1. He is extremely unlikely to make the majors next year.

2. In no way should the Sox move Bradley anytime soon to clear a path for him.

 

Maybe he meant 5th best in the Sox system.

[Bellhorn04]

He's been okay vs LHPs (.710 career) but sucks vs RHPs (.487). He was at .944 vs LHPs last year (.425 v RHPs).

 

Marrero homered twice in the same game off Quintana last year. It was one of the funniest things I saw all year.

[moonslav59]

Marrero was at .944 vs LHPs last year (.425 v RHPs).

 

More than double the OPS!

[cp176]

Marrero was at .944 vs LHPs last year (.425 v RHPs).

 

More than double the OPS!

 

Are you really sure that you have seen Lin play long enough to suggest that he is an equal gloveman to Marrero? Personally I'm not sure either one them can hit a lick. If you are talking about who has options left and who doesn't, do you really think that Lin is going to be a substantial upgrade over Marrero. I'm certainly not sure that I do but I would say the same thing about Chavis. We need to wait just a little while to see if he is for real or not. There is a lot of solid support for him on here as well. I like him as well but I'm not convinced that he will ever play for us just yet.

[mvp 78]

Are you really sure that you have seen Lin play long enough to suggest that he is an equal gloveman to Marrero? Personally I'm not sure either one them can hit a lick. If you are talking about who has options left and who doesn't, do you really think that Lin is going to be a substantial upgrade over Marrero. I'm certainly not sure that I do but I would say the same thing about Chavis. We need to wait just a little while to see if he is for real or not. There is a lot of solid support for him on here as well. I like him as well but I'm not convinced that he will ever play for us just yet.

 

They are both replacement level players. The difference between them is hardly noticeable over the long run. I'd keep Lin because he has also worked out in the OF and could be a super UTIL guy. Marrero has only played IF from what I remember.

[Nick]

At some point we have to trust the mgmt. We're fortunate that our ownership is willing to 'invest'.

 

Comparative AAV for 2018 payroll. We are out spending Yankees by $54M, $34M if you take out Sandoval.

 

Red Sox $230M

Nationals $202M

Cubs $185M

Dodgers $180M

Yankees $176M

Toronto $173M

Angels $171M

Mets $166M

Astros $165M

Mariners $152M

Rangers $152M

Guardians $148M

Orioles $145M

Tigers $135M

Rays $89M

 

Some of you still want to add pieces. Are we not where we used to accuse the Yankees of doing? Buying the championship?

 

There are no gurantees. If you're unhappy with our roster, then you have problems.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Are you really sure that you have seen Lin play long enough to suggest that he is an equal gloveman to Marrero? Personally I'm not sure either one them can hit a lick. If you are talking about who has options left and who doesn't, do you really think that Lin is going to be a substantial upgrade over Marrero. I'm certainly not sure that I do but I would say the same thing about Chavis. We need to wait just a little while to see if he is for real or not. There is a lot of solid support for him on here as well. I like him as well but I'm not convinced that he will ever play for us just yet.

 

Lin has some good defensive rankings by scouts. I trust what they say.

 

soxprospects.com..

 

Field: Above-average defensive potential at shortstop. Gets good reads off the bat and has range to both sides. Fluid actions, soft hands. Confident defender, reads the ball off the bat well and comfortable charging the ball. Has some versatility to play second base, third base, and center field.

 

Also, to me, Marrero's defense has been a bit of a let down. Maybe my expectations were too high to start.

 

soxprospects writes thids about DM:

 

Field: Plus defender. Extremely athletic. Not flashy, makes it look easy. As fundamentally sound as they come. Great body control and is able to throw from all angles and on the run. Active lower half with agility, quick lateral movements, and soft hands. Plus range and first-step quickness and reactions. Future gold glove potential.

[moonslav59]

At some point we have to trust the mgmt. We're fortunate that our ownership is willing to 'invest'.

 

Comparative AAV for 2018 payroll. We are out spending Yankees by $54M, $34M if you take out Sandoval.

 

Red Sox $230M

Nationals $202M

Cubs $185M

Dodgers $180M

Yankees $176M

Toronto $173M

Angels $171M

Mets $166M

Astros $165M

Mariners $152M

Rangers $152M

Guardians $148M

Orioles $145M

Tigers $135M

Rays $89M

 

Some of you still want to add pieces. Are we not where we used to accuse the Yankees of doing? Buying the championship?

 

There are no gurantees. If you're unhappy with our roster, then you have problems.

 

One could argue we've become what the Yankees used to be.

 

We are $50M ahead of the 4th highest spending team!

[Carpin]

One could argue we've become what the Yankees used to be.

 

We are $50M ahead of the 4th highest spending team!

 

I'd like to see the projection for next year, which contracts besides Hanley you will unload after the 2018 season? Also is Rusney Castillo and Sandoval counted against this number?

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue we've become what the Yankees used to be.

 

We are $50M ahead of the 4th highest spending team!

 

As far as the MLBPA is concerned, we're the Good Guys this year. Tax be damned. Share the wealth, baby!

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see the projection for next year, which contracts besides Hanley you will unload after the 2018 season? Also is Rusney Castillo and Sandoval counted against this number?

 

Yes, $230 includes Pablo & Castillo.

 

Next year's losses;

 

$22M HRam (vesting)

$13M Kimbrel

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Kelly

 

Nunez may opt out.

Sale's option will likely be renewed.

Holt may be let go $2M.

 

[Nick]

Yes, $230 includes Pablo & Castillo.

 

Next year's losses;

 

$22M HRam (vesting)

$13M Kimbrel

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Kelly

 

Nunez may opt out.

Sale's option will likely be renewed.

Holt may be let go $2M.

 

 

$230M does NOT include Castillo. He's not on the 40 man roster. He maybe one of our 40 best, but his high value contract is keeping him off the 40 man roster.

 

His contract would cost the Sox additional $3.2M in penalties. Probably not worth it to the Sox.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Nick

[Carpin]

Yes, $230 includes Pablo & Castillo.

 

Next year's losses;

 

$22M HRam (vesting)

$13M Kimbrel

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Kelly

 

Nunez may opt out.

Sale's option will likely be renewed.

Holt may be let go $2M.

 

 

I'm assuming Kimbrel will be resigned and his contract next year will be at least at the same AAV of Chapman, unless his production suffers big time during 2018 (I don't see it happening), it will be a very interesting decision for you guys, because he will try to get at least 5 yrs.

 

Pomeranz will be more expensive too, if he has a similar year in 2018, AAV close to 20 Millions.

 

In top all of that you young players will get more expensive like Betts, JBJ, Bogaerts, and otherts, a tough decision might be coming next winter with Kimbrel and some other guys

[cp176]

Lin has some good defensive rankings by scouts. I trust what they say.

 

soxprospects.com..

 

Field: Above-average defensive potential at shortstop. Gets good reads off the bat and has range to both sides. Fluid actions, soft hands. Confident defender, reads the ball off the bat well and comfortable charging the ball. Has some versatility to play second base, third base, and center field.

 

Also, to me, Marrero's defense has been a bit of a let down. Maybe my expectations were too high to start.

 

soxprospects writes thids about DM:

 

Field: Plus defender. Extremely athletic. Not flashy, makes it look easy. As fundamentally sound as they come. Great body control and is able to throw from all angles and on the run. Active lower half with agility, quick lateral movements, and soft hands. Plus range and first-step quickness and reactions. Future gold glove potential.

 

I'm not saying that I don't trust what the scouts say Moon but I would suspect that they might certainly say as much about what Marrero can and has done with the glove. I'm pretty much in MVP's camp here with this - Lin has had some limited outfield experience which helps to give him a leg up. They really are both likely to be utility payers. So whatever but if defense was the only determining factor, you could go with Lin if you like. I would go with Marrero everyday.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm assuming Kimbrel will be resigned and his contract next year will be at least at the same AAV of Chapman, unless his production suffers big time during 2018 (I don't see it happening), it will be a very interesting decision for you guys, because he will try to get at least 5 yrs.

 

Pomeranz will be more expensive too, if he has a similar year in 2018, AAV close to 20 Millions.

 

In top all of that you young players will get more expensive like Betts, JBJ, Bogaerts, and otherts, a tough decision might be coming next winter with Kimbrel and some other guys

 

I have very strong doubts that Kimbrel will be in a Red Sox uniform in 2019. He'll be looking for Chapman money and he'll probably get close to it - assuming he pitches well this year.

[Carpin]

I have very strong doubts that Kimbrel will be in a Red Sox uniform in 2019. He'll be looking for Chapman money and he'll probably get close to it - assuming he pitches well this year.

 

If nobody steps up to the closer roll during this season you might be in a tight spot next winter, Kimbrel is one of the best in the league and your BP will suffer with almost any other player.

[Bellhorn04]

If nobody steps up to the closer roll during this season you might be in a tight spot next winter, Kimbrel is one of the best in the league and your BP will suffer with almost any other player.

 

As you said there will be a bunch of tough decisions.

[Kimmi]

Marrero homered twice in the same game off Quintana last year. It was one of the funniest things I saw all year.

 

That was awesome.

[Kimmi]

If nobody steps up to the closer roll during this season you might be in a tight spot next winter, Kimbrel is one of the best in the league and your BP will suffer with almost any other player.

 

While I will hate to see Kimbrel go, I certainly hope the Sox don't give him a huge contract to keep him. IMO, a very good BP can be built relatively cheaply.

 

Save the money and resources for other areas of need.

[Carpin]

While I will hate to see Kimbrel go, I certainly hope the Sox don't give him a huge contract to keep him. IMO, a very good BP can be built relatively cheaply.

 

Save the money and resources for other areas of need.

 

He's the only closer in BB without that injury question mark, but let's see how he performs after he starts losing his FB, it's the only guy who one day may be challenging the sandman for the all-time saves record. Still a long way to go but if he stays healthy he can get there (BIG IF)

[sk7326]

If nobody steps up to the closer roll during this season you might be in a tight spot next winter, Kimbrel is one of the best in the league and your BP will suffer with almost any other player.

 

I've long maintained having a closer is more important than who the closer is ... hopefully there are enough live arms that it solves itself.

[moonslav59]

$230M does NOT include Castillo. He's not on the 40 man roster. He maybe one of our 40 best, but his high value contract is keeping him off the 40 man roster.

 

His contract would cost the Sox additional $3.2M in penalties. Probably not worth it to the Sox.

 

Yes, the $230 includes Castillo.

 

 

No, Castillo's contract does not count against the luxury tax.

 

#

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm assuming Kimbrel will be resigned and his contract next year will be at least at the same AAV of Chapman, unless his production suffers big time during 2018 (I don't see it happening), it will be a very interesting decision for you guys, because he will try to get at least 5 yrs.

 

Pomeranz will be more expensive too, if he has a similar year in 2018, AAV close to 20 Millions.

 

In top all of that you young players will get more expensive like Betts, JBJ, Bogaerts, and otherts, a tough decision might be coming next winter with Kimbrel and some other guys

 

If DD has to choose, I think he takes Pom over Kimbrel and hope Smith or Thornburg can close in 2019.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, the $230 includes Castillo.

 

 

No, Castillo's contract does not count against the luxury tax.

 

#

 

 

Nick was talking about our 230 M AAV for tax purposes. He said that didn't include Castillo. He's right.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying that I don't trust what the scouts say Moon but I would suspect that they might certainly say as much about what Marrero can and has done with the glove. I'm pretty much in MVP's camp here with this - Lin has had some limited outfield experience which helps to give him a leg up. They really are both likely to be utility payers. So whatever but if defense was the only determining factor, you could go with Lin if you like. I would go with Marrero everyday.

 

I said "Gloves as good as" not better.

 

I'd probably say Marrero is slightly better on infield defense over Lin, but it's close enough that I'd go with the younger guy who can also play OF.

 

BTW, I'd rather keep Marrero over Holt.

 

I want to keep Marrero on the 25 man roster, until Pedey & Hernandez are healthy.

 

I'm not a Devon basher.

 

[moonslav59]

Nick was talking about our 230 M AAV for tax purposes. He said that didn't include Castillo. He's right.

 

He said "AVV payroll."

 

It's not $230 AVV for tax purposes; it's $216 payroll + $14M player benefit payment.

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

It's not $230 AVV for tax purposes; it's $216 payroll + $14M player benefit payment.

 

 

I realize that.

[moonslav59]

Our actual 2018 salary is $230.8M (counting Castillo).

 

For tax purposes:

 

Our AVV salary is $215.9M (not counting Castillo)

 

Add $14M for player benefits.

 

Our tax number is $229.9M... very close to the actual salary number counting Castillo.

 

Nick's point is not really affected, since everybody pays $14M for benies

 

Yes, we are $54M ahead of the Yanks on the AVV (including benies), but we are $69M ahead in actual payroll that includes Castillo (about $57M not counting Castillo).

[Nick]

Our actual 2018 salary is $230.8M (counting Castillo).

 

For tax purposes:

 

Our AVV salary is $215.9M (not counting Castillo)

 

Add $14M for player benefits.

 

Our tax number is $229.9M... very close to the actual salary number counting Castillo.

 

Nick's point is not really affected, since everybody pays $14M for benies

 

Yes, we are $54M ahead of the Yanks on the AVV (including benies), but we are $69M ahead in actual payroll that includes Castillo (about $57M not counting Castillo).

 

I never worry about cash flow for player payroll. It's all about AVV for me,