A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[cp176]

I'm just trying to interpret the information we're getting. When Mookie Betts says the team wasn't ready for the playoffs two years in a row that seems to be a knock on the manager. And of course the manager was let go in spite of back to back division titles.

 

I defended Farrell quite a bit this year. But now there's new information to consider.

 

Mookie certainly could have been talking about himself as well as the rest of his teammates which would also include the entire coaching staff. Remember though that we have learned that as fans we don't really have a clue what is taking place in that dugout. Just a touch of sarcasm there. I'm ready to look ahead. I hope that hiring Cora will help but I really have to wait and see. I would be surprised if it did. Actually, I wonder what would have helped more - Mookie having a better year or Farrell having a better year. My vote goes to Mookie.

[Hitch]

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

1h1 hour ago

 

Red Sox Stats Retweeted Alex Speier

 

Bogaerts ranked 268th of 272 in swinging at first pitches that were middle-middle. Betts 263rd. Pedroia 251st. JD Martinez 15th.

 

 

That's insane!

[S5Dewey]

What's wrong with a leader thinking of and viewing himself as a leader?

 

There's nothing wrong with it. The problem is with someone who thinks he's a leader but isn't, and doesn't know it.

Edited February 17, 2018 by S5Dewey

[Bellhorn04]

That's insane!

 

Yeah that's gotta change.

[Bellhorn04]

There's nothing wrong with it. The problem is with someone who thinks he's a leader but isn't.

 

There's no evidence that the players don't still consider him one of the leaders though.

[Hitch]

On the blame game...I always felt the coaches and management were slightly amateurish.

 

This is conjecture on my part, but I never had much faith in the coaching staff. Chili Davis in particular was a coach I had very little time for. The hitters regressed massively. Carl Willis, another I wasn't fussed on. You had Pedroia helping the batters and pitchers who were on rough patches.

 

I just don't think they were the most organised bunch and maybe wasted some of the talent we had on our books somewhat.

[Kimmi]

Because, in my opinion, he's not, and if the turmoil was as bad as some are now saying it was, he's either a poor leader, or we have players incapable of being led to the good.

 

In my opinion, he is a leader. Also in my opinion, the 'turmoil' that the press is reporting is being blown out of proportion. Bogaerts never used the term 'dysfunctional' or anything along the lines of 'turmoil', as far as I know. Actually, the 'problems' in the Sox clubhouse sound about the same as what every clubhouse goes through every year, more or less. It seems that because the Red Sox had two early exits from the playoffs, there must be some kind of problem in the clubhouse. Maybe they just got beat by the better team?

[Kimmi]

Wow, 3 in the bottom 23, and all hit mostly in the top of the order.

 

Yup. It's one thing to take a first pitch. It's another thing to take a first that's middle-middle that often.

[Kimmi]

I just read some of Mookie's comments and they are a little surprising, because he's suggesting the team wasn't really ready for the playoffs the last 2 years. Frankly it all sounds like an indictment of Farrell.

 

But let's not forget David Ortiz was on that 2016 team too. I thought he was the leader then! (I'm just saying that to show how unfair some of this stuff can be.)

 

I'm not really buying that the team was not ready for the playoffs. It does sound like an indictment on Farrell, which sounds like a cop out or an excuse to me. The team got beat in the playoffs because they were outplayed. Does that really mean that they weren't ready? They were ready in August and September, but not in October?

[Kimmi]

Oh - ok - sorry my mistake.

You want to blame Farrell that is fine. I'm going on the side of blaming no one. I'm sure that it is hard for some people to accept but Farrell did do some good things.

 

I don't see the need to blame anyone either. Maybe it was time for Farrell to go. I don't know. I was actually indifferent to his firing. I am not torn up that he was fired, but I also would have been fine if he was still with the team. I am excited about Cora though. But, I digress. Blaming Farrell for the early exits in the playoffs is unfair.

[Kimmi]

I'm just trying to interpret the information we're getting. When Mookie Betts says the team wasn't ready for the playoffs two years in a row that seems to be a knock on the manager. And of course the manager was let go in spite of back to back division titles.

 

I defended Farrell quite a bit this year. But now there's new information to consider.

 

I think there is some truth to those who have said that Farrell didn't know how to best work with these young guys, how to get them to relax and stay within their game instead of trying to do too much. However, blaming Farrell for the early playoff exits is on a whole different level.

[notin]

Blaming Farrell for two early playoff exits is silly. Both teams went on to the World Series, and the one that didn't win it all lost in extra innings in game 7. Is Farrell also at fault for the ALCS successes from Cleveland and Houston? And their world series wins?

 

The Sox ran into teams playing better.

[moonslav59]

Yup. It's one thing to take a first pitch. It's another thing to take a first that's middle-middle that often.

 

We've all seen it. The best pitch to hit in the whole AB happens with the batter bat on his shoulder (hyperbole).

 

This is no fluke. The opposing pitchers knew they could start the plate appearance off with an 0-1 count by just throwing right down the middle.

 

Id there any way to find out if the Sox led the league in having the most middle-middle first pitches in MLB (taken or swung at)?

 

My guess is we have been. Now, one could argue that it didn't make much of a difference, since our OPS last year was .736 and only .730 after an 0-1 count, but I still think we need to stop giving away easier pitches to hit.

 

We have to stop giving away our strategies and tendencies.

 

OPS after 0-1 count:

 

.714 Bogey (.746 overall)

.730 Betts (.803 overall)

.727 Pedey (.760 overall)

 

[Kimmi]

That's insane!

 

It is insane! I'm all for plate discipline and working the count, but the top of the order can't be taking all those pitches right down the heart of the plate. I know Cora wants them to be more aggressive, which I agree with. I just hope that the aggressiveness does not go to the other extreme.

[Kimmi]

There's nothing wrong with it. The problem is with someone who thinks he's a leader but isn't, and doesn't know it.

 

From what I've read from players who have played with Pedroia, he is a leader.

[Kimmi]

On the blame game...I always felt the coaches and management were slightly amateurish.

 

This is conjecture on my part, but I never had much faith in the coaching staff. Chili Davis in particular was a coach I had very little time for. The hitters regressed massively. Carl Willis, another I wasn't fussed on. You had Pedroia helping the batters and pitchers who were on rough patches.

 

I just don't think they were the most organised bunch and maybe wasted some of the talent we had on our books somewhat.

 

I think it's fair to question what is going on with the coaching staff when there are widespread underperformances on the team.

[notin]

There's nothing wrong with it. The problem is with someone who thinks he's a leader but isn't, and doesn't know it.

 

Is that an actual problem or just your theory?

[oldtimer]

Wow, 3 in the bottom 23, and all hit mostly in the top of the order.

 

Given that their second halfs were weak at the plate, you would have to think the weakness and taking good pitches early correlate. I also believe these stats were driven by the coaches. Cora can help with that.

[cp176]

I think it's fair to question what is going on with the coaching staff when there are widespread underperformances on the team.

 

I'm going to hold the line on my thinking here. I think that as a team they over achieved last year. I just do not think that our position players are as good as many here believe. Since we have some youngsters, things could change for sure. 93 wins form this group in my opinion was fantastic. Speaks highly for the pitching staff more than anything else. Like you, I was not upset with Farrell being let go and it will be nice to see a fresh face in there. Maybe Alex Cora does know how to deal with younger developing players better than Farrell but if people think that that might happen simply because he is closer in age to members of this team, I think that they are wrong. I hope that it does not work against him.

[a700hitter]

I think it's fair to question what is going on with the coaching staff when there are widespread under performances on the team.

I am not seeing the "widespread under performance." Betts regressed from an MVP type season. That is to be expected. He still had an okay season. XB was banged up for most of the season, and his season was okay despite that. Hanley was clearly injured, but that is nothing new for him. Hanley playing a full season without injury and performing to his potential has become the oddity in his career. I think this "widespread under performance" to which you refer is a creation in your own mind, and I don't think the coaching staff can help with this type of "under performance" that is due to injury and wear and tear, but maybe they can do something about idiotic base running. That is fixable, and so is throwing to the wrong base on from the OF.

[notin]

Some of these underperformanes seemed to be attributable to Stat Cast. Betts looked like he had more of an upper cut swing and his strikeouts increased by almost exactly the same amount his OBP decreased.

 

Was he adjusting his launch angle, per Stat Cast recommendations? If so, there can be an adjustment period for a hitter while he learns to time things better...

[cp176]

Some of these underperformanes seemed to be attributable to Stat Cast. Betts looked like he had more of an upper cut swing and his strikeouts increased by almost exactly the same amount his OBP decreased.

 

Was he adjusting his launch angle, per Stat Cast recommendations? If so, there can be an adjustment period for a hitter while he learns to time things better...

 

I'm good withs notin. Sounds like placing the blame entirely on the department of analytical research and development to me.

[notin]

I'm good withs notin. Sounds like placing the blame entirely on the department of analytical research and development to me.

 

It's not about blame. It's about cause, effect, and learning curves.

 

Why is it always about blame?

[cp176]

It's not about blame. It's about cause, effect, and learning curves.

 

Why is it always about blame?

 

I think that you thought I was being serious there huh.

[notin]

I think that you thought I was being serious there huh.

 

There are absolutely people on this board who would read your statement and take it seriously.

 

They probably still will...

[cp176]

There are absolutely people on this board who would read your statement and take it seriously.

 

They probably still will...

 

I have no clue who you are talking about but I really think that you underestimate me. If there are people here who actually believed what I said about blaming the analytical minds to be for real, I will say that they need to check the wattage in their light bulbs. Does that include you? Say it's not so notin ...

[a700hitter]

I have no clue who you are talking about but I really think that you underestimate me. If there are people here who actually believed what I said about blaming the analytical minds to be for real, I will say that they need to check the wattage in their light bulbs. Does that include you? Say it's not so notin ...

I think he is projecting stupidity onto others.

[cp176]

I think he is projecting stupidity onto others.

 

It's just so belittling don't you think? lol

[a700hitter]

It's just so belittling don't you think? lol

Condescending.

[moonslav59]

I am not seeing the "widespread under performance." Betts regressed from an MVP type season. That is to be expected. He still had an okay season. XB was banged up for most of the season, and his season was okay despite that. Hanley was clearly injured, but that is nothing new for him. Hanley playing a full season without injury and performing to his potential has become the oddity in his career. I think this "widespread under performance" to which you refer is a creation in your own mind, and I don't think the coaching staff can help with this type of "under performance" that is due to injury and wear and tear, but maybe they can do something about idiotic base running. That is fixable, and so is throwing to the wrong base on from the OF.

 

I did see widespread under-performance. I don't think using deviation from career norms does justice to how players normally trend upwards as they near prime, stay close to the same during prime and then usually decline after peak prime.

 

Our top 8 players by 2016 PAs declined in OPS in 2017- some by a lot. 9 of 10 returning players with 100+ PAs declined.

 

2016 PA - player-2016>2017 OPS

 

Pre-prime players(20-26):

730 Betts ,897 > .803

719 Bogey .802 > .746

184 Vazquez .585

118 Beni .835 > 776

(Significant decline with 3 of 4 with players usually on the rise)

 

Prime players (27-29):

636 JBJ .835 > .726

324 Holt .705 >.548

283 Leon .845 > 644

(Massive declines for all 3 in middle of prime years)

 

Just post-prime (30-32):

698 Pedey .825 >.760

620 HRam .866 > .750

227 Young .850 > .709

(Even among this group of post-prime players, the decline was sharp for all 3.

 

What about 2017 compared to 2015:

 

Player-2015>2017 OPS

 

Pre-prime players(20-26):

Betts .820 > .803

Bogey .776 > .746

Swihart .712> .629 in 7 PAs

 

Prime players (27-29):

JBJ .832 > .726

Holt .727 >.548

Leon .439> .644

 

Just Post-prime (30-32):

Pedey .797 >.760

HRam .717

 

We still see 6 of the 8 top PAs players from 2015 have lower PAs in 2017, and 6 of the 8 were pre or mid prime.

 

It might not be a massive decline, but it was significant and more than anything, widespread.

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by moonslav59