A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Spudboy]

I welcome 2018 Pedro Ciriaco and other ST superstars that get me amped up.

 

Maybe Lin will be your man.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Lin will be your man.

 

Lin looked really good last year, but he's never put up offensive numbers like that before- in any extended period of time.

 

Since he has options, he's probably below Marrero, and Holt & Hernandez look better.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Lin will be your man.

 

I like him more than Marrero.

[moonslav59]

I like him more than Marrero.

 

Me, too. It might be more about my thoughts on Marrero than great expectations for Lin, but Marrero is out of options, so he might stay a while, at least until Pedey returns and we know more about Marco.

[notin]

Bring back Eduardo!! He's the only piece that has left last years's pennant-winning team!

[mvp 78]

Bring back Eduardo!! He's the only piece that has left last years's pennant-winning team!

 

Addison Reed.

[mvp 78]

Chris Young.

[moonslav59]

Fister

Robbie Ross

Abad

R Davis

[moonslav59]

2014-2017 (193 players with 1500+ PAs)

 

ISO

4. JD Martinez .274

13. Lucas Duda .242

46. Moustakas .201

53. L Morrison .197

(HRam .189 and Moreland .187)

 

OPS

7. JD Martinez .936

40. Lucas Duda .818

82. Moustakas .771

98. L Morrison .762

(Moreland .755 and HRam .793)

 

2017 only (216 players with 400+ PAs)

 

ISO

1. JD Martinez .387 (Stanton 2nd at .350)

10. Lucas Duda .279

16. L Morrison .270

31. Moustakas .249

97. Moreland .197

107. HRamirez .188

 

OPS

2. JD Martinez 1.066 (Trout 0.005 ahead)

41. L Morrison .868

64. Moustakas .835

73. Lucas Duda .818

125. Mopreland .769

146. HRamirez .750

 

Can we really go into 2018 with our clean-up or 5th hitter at .750 to .770?

 

[mvp 78]

No, because Hanley is probably our #7 hitter.

[mvp 78]

Also, at that point, you may as well just roll out Nunez as a more athletic option than Hanley.

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley has some X factor upside of course...he was probably one of the best hitters in baseball the last half of 2016.

[moonslav59]

Hanley has some X factor upside of course...he was probably one of the best hitters in baseball the last half of 2016.

 

Of course, HRam could suck, but we're paying him $22M, so we might as well see if the surgery worked.

 

We can hope for a glimpse of this HRam:

 

.947 in second half of 2016 (10th best in MLB)

.836 in first half of 2014 (31st best in MLB)

1.040 in a half season of 2013 (2nd best in MLB with 300+ PAs)

 

In 3 of the last 5 seasons, he's shown flashes of brilliance.

 

You don't cut a guy you have to pay $22M without seeing, if he has one last flash in him.

 

Yes, one can argue that three half seasons out of the last 10 is not good, and they'd be right, but with 30% odds and hopes that the surgery helped, rolling the dice seems like a no-brainer.

 

One might argue some of his recent bad half seasons were a direct result of shoulder issues, and maybe the surgery negates those bad halves.

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If we sign LoMo, instead of JD, he's a great hitter vs RHPs (.905 in 2017 vs .761 against lefties).

 

Moreland is also much better vs RHPs (.784 vs ..684).

 

While HRam hit RHPs better last year, traditionally, he kills lefties (.897 vs .838 against lefties career).

 

 

Maybe we'd see this....

 

vs RHPs:

1B: Moreland

DH: Morrison

PH and spot DH: Ramirez

 

vs LHPs:

1B: Morrison

DH: HRam

PH and spot 1B: Moreland

 

No HRam vest, for sure.

 

.

Edited February 9, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If we sign LoMo, instead of JD, he's a great hitter vs RHPs (.905 in 2017 vs .761 against lefties).

 

Moreland is also much better vs RHPs (.784 vs ..684).

 

While HRam hit RHPs better last year, traditionally, he kills lefties (.897 vs .838 against lefties career).

 

 

Maybe we'd see this....

 

vs RHPs:

1B: Moreland

DH: Morrison

PH and spot DH: Ramirez

 

vs LHPs:

1B: Morrison

DH: HRam

PH and spot 1B: Moreland

 

No HRam vest, for sure.

 

.

 

You know who hits lefties really well?

 

OH s***, THAT'S BRYCE BRENTZ'S MUSIC!!!!

[moonslav59]

You know who hits lefties really well?

 

OH s***, THAT'S BRYCE BRENTZ'S MUSIC!!!!

 

I doubt he'll outhit HRam vs LHPs this year.

 

If we sign JD, BB is traded or DFA'd.

 

He may be DFA's, if we sign Morrison and feel comfy with him, Swihart and Holt as our back-up OF'ers.

[mvp 78]

I doubt he'll outhit HRam vs LHPs this year.

 

If we sign JD, BB is traded or DFA'd.

 

He may be DFA's, if we sign Morrison and feel comfy with him, Swihart and Holt as our back-up OF'ers.

 

Why? Hanley sucked vs LHP last year.

[OH FOY]

Truth is you don't know what you'll get from Hanley against Lefties.

2017 .179

2016 .346

2015 . 230

[moonslav59]

Why? Hanley sucked vs LHP last year.

 

Again, don't read so much into one season.

 

I happen to think it was shoulder related.

 

If he can hit like he did vs LHPs and return to how he usually hits RHPs, he could end up our best hitter this year!

[moonslav59]

Truth is you don't know what you'll get from Hanley against Lefties.

2017 .179

2016 .346

2015 . 230

 

He had a bum shoulder in 2015 and 2017.

 

Could be predicable.

[cp176]

He had a bum shoulder in 2015 and 2017.

 

Could be predicable.

 

Since 2010 Hanley has been up and down like a yo-yo. He is 34. I hope he comes out and has a great year but I would be pleasantly surprised.

[moonslav59]

Since 2010 Hanley has been up and down like a yo-yo. He is 34. I hope he comes out and has a great year but I would be pleasantly surprised.

 

I wouldn't bet on HRam having a great 2018, but it's not like he's taking a roster spot away from some hot prospect or more deserving bubble player.

 

It's certainly possible, if not likely, he has a better 2018 than....

 

Brentz

 

Swihart

 

Travis

 

(That's his current competition. Even if we add JD, it's still HRam vs one of these three guys.)

[Spudboy]

Since 2010 Hanley has been up and down like a yo-yo. He is 34. I hope he comes out and has a great year but I would be pleasantly surprised.

 

Yeah he is not a young version of himself anymore. Just look at his physique. He was lean and fast now he is not really fast ( although he does try to run that way ) and he is built like a tight end, really thick from the knees up.

 

I agree that the Sox need to see what the sloth can do after his surgery. It would be nice to get some bang for 22 million bucks.

 

But I don't see him being what he was or anywhere close to that in anything other than spurts.

[moonslav59]

Yeah he is not a young version of himself anymore. Just look at his physique. He was lean and fast now he is not really fast ( although he does try to run that way ) and he is built like a tight end, really thick from the knees up.

 

I agree that the Sox need to see what the sloth can do after his surgery. It would be nice to get some bang for 22 million bucks.

 

But I don't see him being what he was or anywhere close to that in anything other than spurts.

 

Probably right, but he's just two years removed from a 30 HR and 111 RBI season. If the surgery helps, we could get lucky and get close to that again.

[jacksonianmarch]

He seems like he is ancient, but he is only 34. He looked slow last year. The sox cannot take the risk that he doesn't come back healthy, so they need to add some other offense

[moonslav59]

My early take on the opening day 25 man roster (assuming no additions):

 

DL: Pedey, ERod, Thorburg

Phantom DL: ????

* Bubble and out of options

 

SP (5): Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello & Wright

RP (7): Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Scott, Hembree & Johnson*

C- (2): Vaz & Leon

1B (1): Moreland

2B (1): Hernandez

3B (1): Devers

SS (1): Bogey

LF (1): Beni

CF (1): JBJ

RF (1): Betts

DH (1): HRam

UT (3): Brentz*, Swihart* & Marrero*

 

If we sign JD, Brentz goes on the phantom DL. If we sign Nunez, Marrero goes on the phantom DL.

 

Starts on the farm but should (might) see ML action:

 

SP: Velazquez, Haley, Elias & maybe Beeks/Shepherd

RP: Maddox, Workman, Taylor, Martin & Buttrey

C: Butler

1B: Travis (Chavis)

2B: Holt & Quiroz

SS: Lin (Holt)

3B: Chavis (Holt/Lin)

OF: Barfield?

DH: Chavis

 

 

[moonslav59]

He seems like he is ancient, but he is only 34. He looked slow last year. The sox cannot take the risk that he doesn't come back healthy, so they need to add some other offense

 

Yes. If we don't sign JD, we must add LoMo or Duda.

 

I don't care, if he's slow... just not with the bat.

[fxkatt]

The Dodgers overpaid Hanley, and were happy to unload him onto the free agent market.

 

The last team I wanted to punch his ticket was the Sox. And I was really pissed off when they did, Ortiz recommendation, or not.

 

If he has a good season this year (no doubt, "in spurts"), I pray that it's only in a part-time role, so that someone more effective will replace him next season. Amen.

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers overpaid Hanley, and were happy to unload him onto the free agent market.

 

The last team I wanted to punch his ticket was the Sox. And I was really pissed off when they did, Ortiz recommendation, or not.

 

If he has a good season this year (no doubt, "in spurts"), I pray that it's only in a part-time role, so that someone more effective will replace him next season. Amen.

 

I was firmly against the Pablo signing, and didn't like the HRam signing. I initially thought we signed HRam to play 3B, and rumors were that he was going to get much more than what we signed him for. I understood why we signed him, but then I heard about Pablo and scratched my head.

 

$88M looks bad. I wish we never did it, but at the time, not many baseball people were saying the money was bad. They were questioning the move to OF.

 

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers overpaid Hanley, and were happy to unload him onto the free agent market.

 

 

The Dodgers did offer him a QO, but I admit that does not mean they wanted him back.