A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[oldtimer]

Hanley gets no love.

 

If he's truly healthy, I think he will hit pretty well. He gets it. He knows that he needs to hit in order to stay in the lineup.

 

Stayed out of it this week and of course nothing has happened in that time. You are the voice of reason. Hanley is likely better in our lineup than anything we could get for him. I hope he does well for his $22 million, but I still hope he doesn't get to qualify for another year. Getting past his and Sandoval's contracts will allow us more freedom to sign our young guys and to reshape the team going forward.

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley gets no love.

 

If he's truly healthy, I think he will hit pretty well. He gets it. He knows that he needs to hit in order to stay in the lineup.

 

Hanley is a very likable fellow who can rake when he's healthy and in the groove.

 

That said, he had an fWAR of -0.4 last year. He has a cumulative fWAR of 0.6 in 3 years for us, and has been paid 66 million dollars.

 

So certainly we have issues with him in terms of value and cost.

 

Plus he's got that burdensome vesting option adding to the yuck factors.

[Natick to NC]

The best case for our team is this top 5 of order

 

Betts

Benny

JD

Hanley

Devers And all of them rake .

The bottom is a huge ???? For me still .I think there will be trades

 

Betts

Benny

JD

Hanley

Hosmer

Devers would have been my avenue along with trading Porcello and getting Arieta .I think a rotation of.

Sale

Arieta

price in any playoff is World Series worthy .

Edited January 28, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

I think has been burning up his cell phone minutes trying to find any team out there even remotely interested in Hanley.

 

Unfortunately no one is biting!

 

But I give dave his props for attempting the impossible!!!!

 

Thanks Larry!!!

 

We don't know what DD has lined up or "in the works". He might have teams interested in HRam with various amounts of salary relief attached. He may be waiting for the JD shoe to fall before enacting plan B with a flurry of moves already agreed upon or close to agreement.

 

I do have serious doubt anyone wants HRam, but I think someone might take him, if they just had to pay $6-8M. While that costs us $14-16M for him to play elsewhere, it still saves us money and taxes and takes us off the hook for his vesting option.

[moonslav59]

Stayed out of it this week and of course nothing has happened in that time. You are the voice of reason. Hanley is likely better in our lineup than anything we could get for him. I hope he does well for his $22 million, but I still hope he doesn't get to qualify for another year. Getting past his and Sandoval's contracts will allow us more freedom to sign our young guys and to reshape the team going forward.

 

If we sign JD and need to acquired someone else at some point this season, we will be dangerously close to the top penalty limit of the luxury tax system. If getting $6-8M off the books keeps us under the highest penalty line, then there is more benefits than just comparing how good HRam might be in 2018 vs what we get in return.

 

I'm actually thinking we'll get nothing in return but salary relief and the ability to sign other players without experiencing serious penalties that will affect us far into the future.

 

I do think HRam might have a good year. I have not given up on him. I even think he could have a season significantly better than 2016. However, signing JD to DH would relegate HRam to a platoon role. That would certainly up the reasons for looking to trade him.

 

[moonslav59]

The best case for our team is this top 5 of order

 

Betts

Benny

JD

Hanley

Devers And all of them rake .

The bottom is a huge ???? For me still .I think there will be trades

 

Betts

Benny

JD

Hanley

Hosmer

Devers would have been my avenue along with trading Porcello and getting Arieta .I think a rotation of.

Sale

Arieta

price in any playoff is World Series worthy .

 

So, basically you want us to become the Yankees of old. We're already the top spending team, and you want us to add 3 huge and long term contracts that will create unquestionably, extreme financial and draft/international FA acquisition penalties.

 

[moonslav59]

Going by MLBTR's projections, would this be a better idea than waiting out JD and signing him for $25M x 5 or 6 years?

 

Cobb $12M x 4

Nunez $7M x 2

Duda $6M x 1

 

Total:

$25M first year

$19M second year

$12M third and fourth years

 

We then trade Holt (save $2M) and Johnson (out of options) for a better pitcher who has options remaining.

 

We try to trade HRam and cut $5-8M off our budget and taxes.

 

If we can't trade HRam, we go with this:

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Beni LF

3. Betts RF

4. HRam DH/1B or Duda DH

5. Devers 3B

6. HRam/Moreland/Duda 1B

7. JBJ CF

8. Pedey/Nunez 2B

9. Vaz (Leon/Swihart) C

(Brentz/Swihart/Hernandez/Marrero/Lin/Quiroz)

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Cobb, Porcello (ERod/Wright/Velazquez)

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Scott, Hembree, Workman (Thornburg/Maddox/Wright/Taylor)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Going by MLBTR's projections, would this be a better idea than waiting out JD and signing him for $25M x 5 or 6 years?

 

Cobb $12M x 4

Nunez $7M x 2

Duda $6M x 1

 

Certainly not if Cobb's arm falls off as most think it will.

[moonslav59]

Certainly not if Cobb's arm falls off as most think it will.

 

He had a major injury and returned to start 29 games last year.

 

No matter who you pick up, there is injury risk (see Price).

 

At least Cobb would just be $12M x 4 years and not $31M x 7.

[Bellhorn04]

He had a major injury and returned to start 29 games last year.

 

No matter who you pick up, there is injury risk (see Price).

 

At least Cobb would just be $12M x 4 years and not $31M x 7.

 

I'm not averse to signing Cobb, but most seem to be.

 

He also has the dreaded QO attached.

[moonslav59]

 

He also has the dreaded QO attached.

 

We'd lose our 2nd and 5th draft picks and $1M from our international signing pool.

 

Not good, but not crippling either.

 

Perhaps, we could trade some of our out of option players for pool money.

[harmony]

We'd lose our 2nd and 5th draft picks and $1M from our international signing pool.

 

Not good, but not crippling either.

 

Perhaps, we could trade some of our out of option players for pool money.

After accumulating $3.557 million in international pool space during their unsuccessful pursuit of Shonei Ohtani, the Seattle Mariners now have about $2 million remaining following trades for Anthony Misiewicz and Shawn Armstrong.

 

How much international pool space would be needed for Seattle to land lefthander Brian Johnson?

[Kimmi]

Stayed out of it this week and of course nothing has happened in that time. You are the voice of reason. Hanley is likely better in our lineup than anything we could get for him. I hope he does well for his $22 million, but I still hope he doesn't get to qualify for another year. Getting past his and Sandoval's contracts will allow us more freedom to sign our young guys and to reshape the team going forward.

 

The only way Hanley's contract will vest is if he is raking. If he's raking, then I'd be happy to have him back next year. Personally, I thought his contract was a pretty decent one when it was signed.

 

Pablo's contract is a different story.

[Kimmi]

Hanley is a very likable fellow who can rake when he's healthy and in the groove.

 

That said, he had an fWAR of -0.4 last year. He has a cumulative fWAR of 0.6 in 3 years for us, and has been paid 66 million dollars.

 

So certainly we have issues with him in terms of value and cost.

 

Plus he's got that burdensome vesting option adding to the yuck factors.

 

There is no doubt that he has not been worth his contract. 2015 was really and enigma for both him and Pablo. Last year, I am hoping was due to Hanley not being healthy. I'm pulling for the guy.

[cp176]

If Hanley Ramirez is healthy and proves it by hitting consistently for power over the course of this season, I would hope that people would not be too concerned about the vesting option. If he is hitting, he is what we need.

[oldtimer]

If Hanley Ramirez is healthy and proves it by hitting consistently for power over the course of this season, I would hope that people would not be too concerned about the vesting option. If he is hitting, he is what we need.

 

That is a big if for a 22 mil investment.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox cannot let that vesting option vest. If the sox sign JD as is widely expected and Hanley’s option vests, you’ll have no money at all to retain Pomeranz or Kimbrel and you’d go beyond the threshold on arb raises alone. Another signing is in the offing to reduce Hanley’s role. Bank on it

[moonslav59]

The sox cannot let that vesting option vest. If the sox sign JD as is widely expected and Hanley’s option vests, you’ll have no money at all to retain Pomeranz or Kimbrel and you’d go beyond the threshold on arb raises alone. Another signing is in the offing to reduce Hanley’s role. Bank on it

 

I think signing JD would squeeze HRam out of the option, unless there's an injury to Moreland, JD or an OF'er.

 

I realize arb raises will be costly over the next few years and will alone eat up much of the departing players' contracts lost, but we may not need to add much to the roster, except to resign or replace Kimbrel and Pom in kind.

 

Timetable on future Sox free agents:

 

After 2018:

$22M Ramirez

$13M Kimbrel

$8.5M Pomeranz

$3.8M Joe Kelly

 

After 2019:

$20.5M Porcello

$19M Pablo

$13.5M C Sale

____ Bogaerts

$6.5M Moreland

____ Thornburg

____ B Holt

 

If we can pay all arb raises with HRam's salary, we can probably have enough to keep Pom OR Kimbrel. Losing one will not make us noncompetitive. If Henry does not mind keeping us over the second penalty level for a second year in a row, we can probably keep both and not go over the third penalty level.

 

After 2019, losing Porcello and his contract might not be too bad. His money plus Sale's $13.5M could help us keep Sale. We may lose Bogey, but I think losing Pablo's contract can help us keep Bogey and pay the arb raises.

 

It's after 2020 that keeping everybody and facing a third consecutive over the tax limit penalty will be the true reckoning time, IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

What I meant and what people mean when they use the term cliff is that you're trying to keep the band together with far, far less wiggle room financially. If the sox sign JD and somehow let HRam's option vest (like if JD ends up in LF and one of your OFers is dealt off), then you wont be able to keep Pom or Kimbrel. I anticipate the sox will get JD and either platoon Hanley with Moreland or if they don't get JD, sign Duda or Morrison to platoon with Hanley in the DH spot. As it stands, I don't think the sox re-sign either Kimbrel or Pom, but I expect them to replace them both on the open market with cheaper options. If Pomeranz comes out and repeats 2017, he will get $20 mil plus per annum. I expect the same from Kimbrel when he re-sets the record for closers. Davis set the mark this year after being shaky last yr and hurt.

[moonslav59]

What I meant and what people mean when they use the term cliff is that you're trying to keep the band together with far, far less wiggle room financially. If the sox sign JD and somehow let HRam's option vest (like if JD ends up in LF and one of your OFers is dealt off), then you wont be able to keep Pom or Kimbrel. I anticipate the sox will get JD and either platoon Hanley with Moreland or if they don't get JD, sign Duda or Morrison to platoon with Hanley in the DH spot. As it stands, I don't think the sox re-sign either Kimbrel or Pom, but I expect them to replace them both on the open market with cheaper options. If Pomeranz comes out and repeats 2017, he will get $20 mil plus per annum. I expect the same from Kimbrel when he re-sets the record for closers. Davis set the mark this year after being shaky last yr and hurt.

 

Certainly losing just one from Pom or Kimbrel does not meet the anybody's standard for the word "cliff".

 

We lose Pablo & Porcello's contracts after 2019, so I doubt the "cliff" starts then either, but it will mean we will likely be entering our 3rd consecutive year over the luxury tax limit, meaning after 2020, we'll have to reset or face grave consequences.

 

I'm not going to argue with those who see the cliff as beginning in 2020, but I think we can manage to extend it to 2021. If we get lucky and have a few prospects rise quickly and make major contributions, which I'd say is against the odds, we could avoid a real "cliff" and just have a short valley.

[mvp 78]

The sox cannot let that vesting option vest. If the sox sign JD as is widely expected and Hanley’s option vests, you’ll have no money at all to retain Pomeranz or Kimbrel and you’d go beyond the threshold on arb raises alone. Another signing is in the offing to reduce Hanley’s role. Bank on it

 

Yup. He can't vest this year. Even if the Sox don't sign JD, they can't let that vest.

[moonslav59]

Yup. He can't vest this year. Even if the Sox don't sign JD, they can't let that vest.

 

Losing HRam's contract after 2018 and Pablo's after 2019 is about the only thing keeping "the window" open for 2-3 more years.

[notin]

The sox cannot let that vesting option vest. If the sox sign JD as is widely expected and Hanley’s option vests, you’ll have no money at all to retain Pomeranz or Kimbrel and you’d go beyond the threshold on arb raises alone. Another signing is in the offing to reduce Hanley’s role. Bank on it

 

It'd the Sox sign Martinez, it significantly reduces the chances of Hanley's option vesting. There are only so many places in the lineup. It would take a major injury for Hanley to play enough. And that injury might have to be to Martinez.

 

In fact if the Sox sign Martinez, they might DFA Hanley. That eliminates the chances of his option vesting. ..

Edited January 29, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

It'd the Sox sign Martinez, it significantly reduces the chances of Hanley's option vesting. There are only so many places in the lineup. It would take a major injury for Hanley to play enough. And that injury might have to be to Martinez.

 

In fact if the Sox sign Martinez, they might DFA Hanley. That eliminates the chances of his option vesting. ..

 

If Moreland gets hurt, HRam would be on track to vest.

 

If an OF'er gets hurt, JD would play LF FT, and HRam would be on track to vest.

 

If we sign JD and trade JBJ, HRam would be on track to vest. (I'd sign Duda in this scenario.)

[mvp 78]

If Moreland gets hurt, HRam would be on track to vest.

 

If an OF'er gets hurt, JD would play LF FT, and HRam would be on track to vest.

 

If we sign JD and trade JBJ, HRam would be on track to vest. (I'd sign Duda in this scenario.)

 

DFA and use Travis as the backup.

[moonslav59]

DFA and use Travis as the backup.

 

I haven't given up on HRam. He's been almost a total one good year/one bad year player over the last 6 years or so. Even if he wasn't getting paid $22M, I'd want a look-see in ST'ing to see how the surgery worked (or not).

 

There's no hurry to DFA anyone, and I'd rather DFA Brentz, if we sign JD than HRam.

[mvp 78]

I haven't given up on HRam. He's been almost a total one good year/one bad year player over the last 6 years or so. Even if he wasn't getting paid $22M, I'd want a look-see in ST'ing to see how the surgery worked (or not).

 

There's no hurry to DFA anyone, and I'd rather DFA Brentz, if we sign JD than HRam.

 

Do your eyes light up when you see a roulette wheel. The even/odd year thing is just silly.

[mvp 78]

And if you really do believe in it, that means he'll be good this year and vest. Next year he'll suck and not be worth it. So let's just not let him vest then.

[moonslav59]

Do your eyes light up when you see a roulette wheel. The even/odd year thing is just silly.

 

My point is HRam is up and down. I'm not saying it's an automatic thing, but his history suggests he might still have a good year (or two) left in him over the next few years.

 

I realize he could easily suck this year, but as long as there's a chance he can do well, I'm not going to DFA him until at least the end of ST'ing. It's not like we have ready and able prospects beating down the 40 man roster door.

 

HRam just turned 34. Many players that age and older have had big years.

 

HRam's recent history:

 

2013: 1.040 OPS (in 304 PAs)

2014: .817

2015: .717 (played injured)

2016: .866

2017: .750 (played hurt)

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

My point is HRam is up and down. I'm not saying it's an automatic thing, but his history suggests he might still have a good year (or two) left in him over the next few years.

 

I realize he could easily suck this year, but as long as there's a chance he can do well, I'm not going to DFA him until at least the end of ST'ing. It's not like we have ready and able prospects beating down the 40 man roster door.

 

Whether he's up or down, chances are he's not going to be worth that contract for 2 more years. You gotta let him go.