A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[a700hitter]

It's a pile of decent back-ups. None can be projected as plus starters. They are place holders for Pedey.

 

Marco Hernandez: He seems like he has the "inside edge" on the opening day starter's job, but certainly is not a lock. He only has 84 innings at 2B at the ML level. He's played less than 10% of his innings at 2B in the minors. One would think a capable SS would be fine, defensively, at 2B, but his defensive metrics in those 84 innings are horrible (-28.7 UZR/150 and -2 DRS). His bat appears to project better than any of the competition. .284 BA/ .328 OBP in 116 ML PAs and .292/.324 in 427 PAs at AAA.

 

Brock Holt: I've always felt 2B was the only position Brock was a plus on defense, and the metrics back that position up: +7.1 UZR/150 and + 5 DRS in 746 innings at 2B. For a long time Brock kept his OPS over .700 (just barely) vs LHPs and RHPs. That's very good...for a sub. The concussion messed him up badly, but there is hope he can return to 2014-2016 form of .274 BA/.335 OBP/.381 SLG/.716. OPS. If he can give us +7 UZR and a .715 OPS, he'd be near a plus compared to the rest of the league's 2Bmen. The league 2B OPS has been between .700 and .750 since 2014. The +7 UZR/150 would make Holt a clear average (at worst) 2Bman. That's the optimist view. We all know how bad he can look as well.

 

Deven Marrero: He's out of options, so he may make the 25 man roster, if only to keep depth in the system. He's pretty much all glove and no bat, but he's really be quite decent vs LHPs, fueled by a .430 SLG%. His OPS vs LHPs is .710, but it is .487 vs RHPs. Some sort of platoon might work out for Deven. His UZR/150 at 2B (9.0) is almost as good as Pedey's (10.9).

 

Tzu-Wei Lin: He is largely an unknown who put up a .709 OPS in just 66 PAs last year. In 44 innings at 2B, last year, he pout up an amazing +30.7 UZR/150 (+1 DRS). His .602 OPS at AAA (154 PAs) and .580 OPS at AA (411 PAs) makes one wonder about his chances at winning the 2B jon, let alone a 25 man roster spot, especially with so many out-of-options bubble players.

 

Esteban Quiroz: Another largely unknown talent. He put up very good numbers in the Mexican League by never having a BA below .293 or an OPS below .845. He's the wild card in the group. Many consider the Mexican League to be similar to AAA, so maybe this kid has a real shot. In 2016, he hit .335/.449/.522/.971!

 

Blake Swihart & Michael Chavis: I don't see them as options at 2B.

 

Maybe someone from this group can rise and shine, but picking which one to give the first shot might not be easy. ST'ing will probably decide who starts and who makes the 25 man roster, but others might get a chance, if the first choice stumbles out of the gate. Hoiw long Pedey is out, and the threat of him never returning, is a dark cloud over our team. Having one of these guys come through would go a long way towards improving our odds at winning the division.

 

I'm hopeful but not really optimistic.

I wasn't slamming this group. I was slamming Beckham.

[mvp 78]

I wasn't slamming this group. I was slamming Beckham.

 

Over the past 4 years, he's been below replacement value. Yuck.

 

Might as well just throw Hernandez, Lin or Marrero out there. Not sure Beckham would even have a starting position in PAW.

[moonslav59]

If we can find a "taker" who is not up against a roster crunch or players out of options crunch, I'd like to see us trade 2 of these guys for one better player, preferably with an option left:

 

Out of options

 

Marrero

 

Brentz

 

Swihart

 

Johnson

 

Hembree (the best of the group and probably worth keeping)

 

While Holt has options, if a team wanted him + Johnson for a better SP'er or 2Bman than Marco, I'd do it.

 

[Kimmi]

The most underrated of the bunch is probably Francisco Liriano, who has been worth 5.0 fWAR over the past 3 seasons (which is more Lance Lynn and more than double Alex Cobb in the same timeframe).

 

However, Liriano is 34 years old and not likely improving much. Although his limited action last year (97 IP) might have helped some wear and tear on the arm. He also has a long history of control issues, and the Sox might not be too keen on another LHSP.

 

Andrew Cashner (4.5 fWAR) and Jeremy Hellickson (4.4 fWAR) are RHSP options. Cashner is the only one of the three whose fWAR total isn't largely carried by one season...

 

Meh. I was hoping for someone more along the lines of Darvish, but his contract will not be reasonable.

 

The shorter term deal for Arrieta might be the way to go.

[Kimmi]

What's clay up to ? I wonder if we could catch lightning in a bottle now that he's healthy ? 2 year 6 mill

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

Don't you start that.

 

Let the Clay era 2.0 begin!

[Bellhorn04]

Let the Clay era 2.0 begin!

 

Too bad Slash wasn't here...he'd be heavily in favor of this LOL

[moonslav59]

The Brewers no have a couple OF'er they are shopping.

 

I wonder, if a team looking at JD might turn to the Brewers, instead.

[harmony]

The Brewers no have a couple OF'er they are shopping.

 

I wonder, if a team looking at JD might turn to the Brewers, instead.

Introducing Boston designated hitter Ryan Braun, the righthand-hitting masher the Red Sox seek.

 

Over the past two seasons Braun has posted 4.8 fWAR in 239 games while J.D. Martinez has posted 5.6 fWAR in 239 games. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.5 in 522 plate appearances for Braun and 2.3 in 547 plate appearances for Martinez.

 

The 34-year-old Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract (with an AAV of $21 million) while the 30-year-old Martinez reportedly has a five-year, $125 million offer.

Edited January 26, 2018 by harmony

[Carpin]

Introducing Boston designated hitter Ryan Braun, the righthand-hitting masher the Red Sox seek.

 

Over the past two seasons Braun has posted 4.8 fWAR in 239 games while J.D. Martinez has posted 5.6 fWAR in 239 games. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.5 in 522 plate appearances for Braun and 2.3 in 547 plate appearances for Martinez.

 

The 34-year-old Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract (with an AAV of $21 million) while the 30-year-old Martinez reportedly has a five-year, $125 million offer.

 

looks like a good deal for Boston,

 

which players would you send to Milwaukee?

[Bellhorn04]

Introducing Boston designated hitter Ryan Braun, the righthand-hitting masher the Red Sox seek.

 

Over the past two seasons Braun has posted 4.8 fWAR in 239 games while J.D. Martinez has posted 5.6 fWAR in 239 games. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.5 in 522 plate appearances for Braun and 2.3 in 547 plate appearances for Martinez.

 

The 34-year-old Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract (with an AAV of $21 million) while the 30-year-old Martinez reportedly has a five-year, $125 million offer.

 

Braun is PED and character tainted big-time, unfortunately.

[moonslav59]

Introducing Boston designated hitter Ryan Braun, the righthand-hitting masher the Red Sox seek.

 

Over the past two seasons Braun has posted 4.8 fWAR in 239 games while J.D. Martinez has posted 5.6 fWAR in 239 games. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.5 in 522 plate appearances for Braun and 2.3 in 547 plate appearances for Martinez.

 

The 34-year-old Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract (with an AAV of $21 million) while the 30-year-old Martinez reportedly has a five-year, $125 million offer.

 

HRam, Holt & ERod for Braun, and then we sign Arieta or Cobb..

[harmony]

looks like a good deal for Boston,

 

which players would you send to Milwaukee?

Six years of 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson, who is out of options, for three years of Ryan Braun at $57 million and one of two lefty relievers -- 27-year-old Tyler Webb or 28-year-old Brent Suter -- who each have two remaining options and six years of team control. With the recent signing of southpaw Boone Logan, the Brewers may have a surplus of lefties in the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

Six years of 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson, who is out of options, for three years of Ryan Braun at $57 million and one of two lefty relievers -- 27-year-old Tyler Webb or 28-year-old Brent Suter -- who each have two remaining options and six years of team control. With the recent signing of southpaw Boone Logan, the Brewers may have a surplus of lefties in the bullpen.

 

Wow, that's cheap. You usually bash us for suggesting such light offers.

[harmony]

Wow, that's cheap. You usually bash us for suggesting such light offers.

With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million (or $60 million) remaining on his contract.

[cp176]

Braun is PED and character tainted big-time, unfortunately.

 

Absolutely - not interested. Bringing in a known PED user and changing the name of Yawkey Way, would seem to be the height of hypocrisy. Not going to happen.

[moonslav59]

With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million (or $60 million) remaining on his contract.

 

I'd try to make them take HRam as a partial salary offset and then offer them more than just Johnson.

 

HRam, Holt, Hembree, Johnson and Brentz for Braun, Suter & Webb.

[harmony]

I'd try to make them take HRam as a salary offset and then offer them more than just Johnson.

 

HRam, Holt, Hembree, Johnson and Brentz for Braun, Suter & Webb.

I suspect Hanley Ramirez with his $22 million salary would be a deal-breaker for the Milwaukee Brewers (or any National League team).

[cp176]

The Brewers no have a couple OF'er they are shopping.

 

I wonder, if a team looking at JD might turn to the Brewers, instead.

 

Wait - really Moon. There is no other team really looking at JD. You know that. Because of the stupidity surrounding his negotiation it is possible that he falls into someone else's lap at a cut rate price though. I'm going on record here as saying that I am absolutely ok with that.

[Carpin]

Six years of 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson, who is out of options, for three years of Ryan Braun at $57 million and one of two lefty relievers -- 27-year-old Tyler Webb or 28-year-old Brent Suter -- who each have two remaining options and six years of team control. With the recent signing of southpaw Boone Logan, the Brewers may have a surplus of lefties in the bullpen.

 

No way, too light offer. Even with all the PED baggage.

[moonslav59]

I suspect Hanley Ramirez with his $22 million salary would be a deal-breaker for the Milwaukee Brewers (or any National League team).

 

The $22M goes a long way towards justifying Braun's $57M.

[moonslav59]

Wait - really Moon. There is no other team really looking at JD. You know that. Because of the stupidity surrounding his negotiation it is possible that he falls into someone else's lap at a cut rate price though. I'm going on record here as saying that I am absolutely ok with that.

 

DD should tell Boras, "My offer is ______, and it will go down $1M everyday starting ______."

[Bellhorn04]

I suspect Hanley Ramirez with his $22 million salary would be a deal-breaker for the Milwaukee Brewers (or any National League team).

 

moon won't rest until he unloads Hanley on somebody LOL

[harmony]

No way, too light offer. Even with all the PED baggage.

With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million remaining on his contract.

 

What could Hanley Ramirez return in a trade?

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 1.7 in 595 plate appearances for Braun and 1.3 in 595 plate appearances for Ramirez.

 

Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract while Ramirez, who is five weeks younger than Braun, has a 2018 salary of $22 million with a vesting option for $22 million in 2019.

 

Neither contract is appealing but the Ramirez contract is not much worse than the Braun contract with its two additional years.

[moonslav59]

moon won't rest until he unloads Hanley on somebody LOL

 

True enough. I'm willing to take 3 years of a known PED user just to dump his ass.

[harmony]

DD should tell Boras, "My offer is ______, and it will go down $1M everyday starting ______."

And Scott Boras, with a better offer already in hand (or not), would laugh.

[moonslav59]

And Scott Boras, with a better offer already in hand, would laugh.

 

Or not.

 

I doubt he has a better offer in hand, but if he does, then DD has already given his top offer, and it's time to move on.

 

I he "laughs" off his best offer, then he risks doing a great disservice to his client.

 

I would not go any higher.

 

I've been preaching patience for weeks, but we're getting close to the point where secondary options will be flying off the table.

[FredLynn]

DD should tell Boras, "My offer is ______, and it will go down $1M everyday starting ______."

 

And $2M a day starting.......

[harmony]

I doubt Scott Boras is inclined to play along with amateurs.

 

Perhaps the Red Sox are prepared to go with the lineup projected at Roster Resource:

 

RF Betts ®

LF Benintendi (L)

SS Bogaerts ®

1B Moreland (L)

DH Ramirez ®

3B Devers (L)

CF Bradley (L)

C Vazquez ®

2B Hernandez (L)

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/

Edited January 26, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I doubt Scott Boras is inclined to play along with amateurs.

 

Then, he can take his ball and go home. It's his client who would suffer (assuming we have the top bid and nobody will top it going forward).\

 

Look, I realize there are more professional ways to get the same point across, such as, "We need to have an answer by _____, or we will move on to someone else."