A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[a700hitter]

Don’t the Sox have insurance for when price’s elbow blows in late March and he misses the 2018 season?

 

While we get no cap relief, at least Henry can get reimbursed a few dollars.

No.

[moonslav59]

Blue Jays sign Granderson.

 

Does this take them out of the JD sweepstakes?

[mvp 78]

The foundation of the baseball economy is fan interest. Attendance is going down. I don't know about other teams' TV ratings but I know NESN ratings are down.

 

At some point the gravy train has to hit the brakes.

 

Overall, league ratings in prime time were down -6% compared to last season with the Detroit Tigers (down -38%) leading the way in ratings drag from the year prior.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/10/10/here-are-the-2017-mlb-prime-time-television-ratings-for-each-team/#6526b3b3799a

[mvp 78]

We just may be starting to see the first signs of fiscal sanity this offseason...which I guess is why it's been so boring.

 

The last time the owners had "fiscal sanity" it ended up just being collusion.

[cp176]

The last time the owners had "fiscal sanity" it ended up just being collusion.

 

"fiscal sanity" to a billionaire - yikes.

[Bellhorn04]

"fiscal sanity" to a billionaire - yikes.

 

They didn't become billionaires by being stupid and giving money away.

[mvp 78]

They didn't become billionaires by being stupid and giving money away.

 

Not true. They can be stupid about money too.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/07/14/in-severing-ties-with-pablo-sandoval-red-sox-pay-for-a-95-million-mistake/?utm_term=.aa2e547406fe

[mvp 78]

Henry actually has a long history of stupidly throwing money away.

 

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2012/09/05/Franchises/Liverpool.aspx

[moonslav59]

Henry actually has a long history of stupidly throwing money away.

 

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2012/09/05/Franchises/Liverpool.aspx

 

Think of all the money spent beyond what was on the luxury tax budget:

 

Castillo

Craig

Moncada's signing penalty fee

Dice-K's posting fee

 

I'm sure there's more.

[Bellhorn04]

Not true. They can be stupid about money too.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/07/14/in-severing-ties-with-pablo-sandoval-red-sox-pay-for-a-95-million-mistake/?utm_term=.aa2e547406fe

 

a) It was his baseball ops people who made this particular stupid mistake, presumably.

Henry's wealth from the Red Sox only continues to increase in spite of such setbacks.

[cp176]

They didn't become billionaires by being stupid and giving money away.

 

You might be wrong. It is all very relative. If a billionaire spends 10000 on something seemingly stupid to you and me does that make it a stupid move? I'm also fairly sure that the majority of billionaires did not start from scratch.

[mvp 78]

a) It was his baseball ops people who made this particular stupid mistake, presumably.

Henry's wealth from the Red Sox only continues to increase in spite of such setbacks.

 

Hard to separate who makes the final call on a FA, but it has to pass by Henry's desk most likely.

 

Henry had a lot of money to start with before he got into MLB. All franchises have seen their value continue to skyrocket. It hasn't really taken much financial genius to keep it going. We'll have to see what happens when the rubber meets the road and tougher times creep up (declining attendance across MLB, decreased tv ratings).

[mvp 78]

For example: Henry bought the Marlins in 1999 for $158. That garbage franchise was sold for $1.2B last year.

[Bellhorn04]

You might be wrong. It is all very relative. If a billionaire spends 10000 on something seemingly stupid to you and me does that make it a stupid move? I'm also fairly sure that the majority of billionaires did not start from scratch.

 

John Henry's parents were soybean farmers. I believe he made his fortune in the market.

[mvp 78]

John Henry's parents were soybean farmers. I believe he made his fortune in the market.

 

He did. He was a self made man. However, not all billionaires are. Hard to say if the "majority" inherited the wealth or not.

[Bellhorn04]

He did. He was a self made man. However, not all billionaires are. Hard to say if the "majority" inherited the wealth or not.

 

Yep, case by case basis.

[mvp 78]

Business Insider listed the top 16 heirs in the world, all with net worth above $14.4B. If you look at the Forbes Billionaires List, $14.4 would be about the 70th richest billionaire. If the rest of the rankings go from that SSS, approximately 23% of billionaires inherited their wealth. I'm sure some others inherited a lot of money and wound up increasing that net worth further, but that's a rabbit hole I don't want to go down.

 

Effffffffffff billionaires.

[Bellhorn04]

Business Insider listed the top 16 heirs in the world, all with net worth above $14.4B. If you look at the Forbes Billionaires List, $14.4 would be about the 70th richest billionaire. If the rest of the rankings go from that SSS, approximately 23% of billionaires inherited their wealth. I'm sure some others inherited a lot of money and wound up increasing that net worth further, but that's a rabbit hole I don't want to go down.

 

Effffffffffff billionaires.

 

Such is capitalism. Personally I wouldn't mind having a billionaire for a client.

[moonslav59]

Say we end up signing JD. The Pirates are in rebuild mode. How about...

 

Trade: Holt ($2.2M and 1 arb left), Brentz (out of options), Hembree (out of options and 3 arbs after this year) and Beeks

 

for

 

Josh Harrison [18:$10M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$11.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)] and $3M cash

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by moonslav59

[cp176]

John Henry's parents were soybean farmers. I believe he made his fortune in the market.

 

I know that he made some of his billionaire or thereabouts in the market for sure. I'm pretty sure that you aren't suggesting that since his parents were soybean farmers he came from humble beginnings. Big agi can produce lots of $.

[moonslav59]

I found this...

 

Forbes cites Henry’s source of wealth as “self-made,” and it couldn’t be more accurate. Growing up in both the green plains of Illinois and the brush land of Arkansas before relocating to California in his teens. Growing, he always had a knack for numbers and a love for baseball, but despite this his future in sports investment wasn’t fully realized until the 1970’s, after his father’s death. Suddenly in charge of the farm and its sales, and began to self-teach himself hedging and trading tactics. By the early ’80’s, Henry began the John W. Henry & Co, a financial trading firm where he could bring his knowledge and expertise to paying clients.

[moonslav59]

I know that he made some of his billionaire or thereabouts in the market for sure. I'm pretty sure that you aren't suggesting that since his parents were soybean farmers he came from humble beginnings. Big agi can produce lots of $.

 

Apparently, they had a 1,000 acre farm.

[moonslav59]

From soxprospects.com

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-castillo.html

 

Rusney Castillo went 8 for 21 over six games, with two home runs, a double, and one walk to go along with two hit-by-pitches.

 

Hector Velazquez In the first game of the semi-finals, he got the win for Navojoa. He was able to limit the damage to only one unearned run despite allowing eight hits over five innings while striking out only two.

[Nick]

Say we end up signing JD. The Pirates are in rebuild mode. How about...

 

Trade: Holt ($2.2M and 1 arb left), Brentz (out of options), Hembree (out of options and 3 arbs after this year) and Beeks

 

for

 

Josh Hamilton [18:$10M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$11.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)] and $3M cash

 

Do you mean Josh Harrison?

[mvp 78]

Pass on Josh Harrison. I don't think he's that good. Steamer projects him to have a negative OWAR this year. Seems overpaid for what he provides.

[Nick]

nms

[Bellhorn04]

I know that he made some of his billionaire or thereabouts in the market for sure. I'm pretty sure that you aren't suggesting that since his parents were soybean farmers he came from humble beginnings. Big agi can produce lots of $.

 

Frankly this is a topic I only got onto because there's absolutely nothing else going on.

[cp176]

Frankly this is a topic I only got onto because there's absolutely nothing else going on.

 

Me as well - I'll say again as you know I have said many times before, the concept of what the word budget means to me (and I'm doing ok) and what it means to a billionaire is something that I can not fathom. I am not concerned at all whether or not there are any financial thresholds that JH decides to stay under. If it is just about money and JH wants someone he is likely to get them. And that is real capitalism.

[moonslav59]

Say we end up signing JD. The Pirates are in rebuild mode. How about...

 

Trade: Holt ($2.2M and 1 arb left), Brentz (out of options), Hembree (out of options and 3 arbs after this year) and Beeks

 

for

 

Josh Hamilton [18:$10M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$11.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)] and $3M cash

 

Do you mean Josh Harrison?

 

Yes--went back and edited.

[Kimmi]

But most fans ( in my opinion ) are not that sophisticated. They just see a big name with big output and think this is what we need. Hence big splash signings like Fatboy.

 

I don't agree with that thinking. I say act responsibly. It is a business and value should be a big part of the equation.

 

I completely agree. Most fans don't follow things like the offseason, , payroll, CBA penalties, etc. closely enough to know any better.