A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Spudboy]

Yeah, I think you're making stuff up here.

 

Lol!

 

Now see here is where veteran membership at Talksox comes into play. As one of the old guys I can tell you with complete competence that this is where you tell him to stick to cleaning bedpans!

[harmony]

Apparently the vesting option does not transfer to a team HRam would be traded to, so that's a plus for the Giants.

 

The Giants save money and get the OF'er they want.

 

You act like JBJ cancels out JS, but the money saved is a huge plus that goes a long way at evening up the HRam for Belt part you broke it down into.

The vesting option remains intact in a trade; Hanley Ramirez cannot be stripped of contract rights.

 

My understanding is that if the Red Sox designate Ramirez for assignment, the 2019 vesting option is the responsibility of the team that signs Ramirez at the league minimum with the Red Sox picking up only the balance of his 2018 salary.

 

I doubt the surplus value of Jackie Bradley Jr. over the surplus value of Jeff Samardzija is enough to persuade the Giants to take on Ramirez.

[moonslav59]

The vesting option remains intact in a trade; Hanley Ramirez cannot be stripped of contract rights.

 

My understanding is that if the Red Sox designate Ramirez for assignment, the 2019 vesting option is the responsibility of the team that signs Ramirez at the league minimum with the Red Sox picking up only the balance of his 2018 salary.

 

My bad.

[notin]

Think of it as three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. with a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.0 for three years of Jeff Samardzija at $57.5 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.5.

 

Then think of one year of Hanley Ramirez at $22 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 1.0 (and the 2019 option vesting) for four years of Brandon Belt at $64 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.1.

 

I can't see the Giants making that deal.

 

Really if the Giants want Bradley - and they reportedly do - it's probably going to come down to them giving up prospects they don't have or taking back Hanley. If Bradley for Belt is the baseline, slight edge to the Giants. Somehow they are going to have to sweeten their offer, or help out Boston. Or settle for Billy Hamilton.

 

I think a reliever or a prospect back from SF evens the deal better, especially with Belt's health history..

[notin]

No way I trade JBJ for a DH with less power than HRam, but if you add HRam and get back Samardzija, I'd do it. I'd even throw in Travis and Holt.

 

It's hard to say if Belt has less power than Hanley, but he is certainly a more powerful hitter away from SF.

 

I'm not sure Holt and Travis hold all that much value. And over the years, when I have been saying "trade Holt" and received that universal (and always stupid) answer "Holt's more valuable to Boston than he is in a trade," when the opposite was always true. (And what people meant was "He's good. You're only supposed to trade bad players.")

 

But right now, with Holt's health situation and Pedroia's health situation, for the first time ever, Holt might actually be worth more to the Red Sox than he is in a trade...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure Holt and Travis hold all that much value. And over the years, when I have been saying "trade Holt" and received that universal (and always stupid) answer "Holt's more valuable to Boston than he is in a trade," when the opposite was always true. (And what people meant was "He's good. You're only supposed to trade bad players.")

 

Isn't it also a possibility that Holt's value to Boston was approximately equal to his value in trade?

[notin]

Isn't it also a possibility that Holt's value to Boston was approximately equal to his value in trade?

 

There were probably times when it was. But his value to Boston was never "MORE" than in a trade.

 

I think it was a combination of people liking Holt when a lot of fans views trades as for undesirable players, and a lot of fans thinking his versatility was a really rare skill. To me, he looked like a guy on a BABIP-fueled hot streak at the plate that forced him into the lineup where he had to play multiple positions he had no idea how to field. But to some people, that is the definition of versatility, I guess...

[Bellhorn04]

There were probably times when it was. But his value to Boston was never "MORE" than in a trade.

 

I think it was a combination of people liking Holt when a lot of fans views trades as for undesirable players, and a lot of fans thinking his versatility was a really rare skill. To me, he looked like a guy on a BABIP-fueled hot streak at the plate that forced him into the lineup where he had to play multiple positions he had no idea how to field. But to some people, that is the definition of versatility, I guess...

 

Personally, I liked him most when he was being paid minimum wage. I thought that was a big part of his value.

[notin]

Personally, I liked him most when he was being paid minimum wage. I thought that was a big part of his value.

 

I can agree with that. However when a player's value is based on being paid as little as possible, it really does mean he should be considered tradable. ..

[Bellhorn04]

I can agree with that. However when a player's value is based on being paid as little as possible, it really does mean he should be considered tradable. ..

 

In 2014 and 2015 he was being paid about $500 K for 2 WAR. That's what harmony calls 'surplus value'. Could we have traded him for that kind of surplus value in return? I don't know. The other thing, of course, is that we don't know if they did put his name out there and didn't care for what was being offered.

[harmony]

Really if the Giants want Bradley - and they reportedly do - it's probably going to come down to them giving up prospects they don't have or taking back Hanley. If Bradley for Belt is the baseline, slight edge to the Giants. Somehow they are going to have to sweeten their offer, or help out Boston. Or settle for Billy Hamilton.

 

I think a reliever or a prospect back from SF evens the deal better, especially with Belt's health history..

Would the deal make sense with the addition of two 29-year-old former Red Sox draftees: San Francisco reliever Hunter Strickland and Boston outfielder Bryce Brentz? Strickland comes with four years of team control and Brentz with six years.

 

The thin Giant bullpen probably can’t afford to lose Strickland. Four years of lefty reliever Josh Osich might be a likelier target. Or two years of southpaw Will Smith, who is projected with a 2018 salary of $2.5 million in his return after missing the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery.

Edited December 31, 2017 by harmony

[S5Dewey]

It's hard to say if Belt has less power than Hanley, but he is certainly a more powerful hitter away from SF.

 

I'm not sure Holt and Travis hold all that much value. And over the years, when I have been saying "trade Holt" and received that universal (and always stupid) answer "Holt's more valuable to Boston than he is in a trade," when the opposite was always true. (And what people meant was "He's good. You're only supposed to trade bad players.")

 

But right now, with Holt's health situation and Pedroia's health situation, for the first time ever, Holt might actually be worth more to the Red Sox than he is in a trade...

The condescension on this forum from some posters now is mind-boggling. "I know more than you do so if you don't agree with me you're STUPID."

I know the tenor of the country now is to be as crass, insulting and assertive as possible but does it have to carry over into this forum?

[notin]

The condescension on this forum from some posters now is mind-boggling. "I know more than you do so if you don't agree with me you're STUPID."

I know the tenor of the country now is to be as crass, insulting and assertive as possible but does it have to carry over into this forum?

 

It was always a silly answer.

 

It was never a crime to like Holt or want him on the team. That opinion has been shared by our last two GMs. But it is always hypocritical to think a player has value to the team and think that means he doesn't have alue to anyone else for the exact same reasons.

 

There ia a big difference between calling a poster stupid and an answer stupid. I've had numerous posts I've made called out for being stupid or inaccurate and plenty of times I've looked back and thought "Valid point. What was I thinking?"

 

I've even called myself out, and done so as recently as the Jeff Samardzija trade proposal yesterday...

Edited December 31, 2017 by notin

[moonslav59]

If SF also needs pen help, why not trade JBJ, HRam, Johnson and Hembree for Belt and JS?

 

(Assuming we will sign JD)

[a700hitter]

The condescension on this forum from some posters now is mind-boggling. "I know more than you do so if you don't agree with me you're STUPID."

I know the tenor of the country now is to be as crass, insulting and assertive as possible but does it have to carry over into this forum?

In a slow boring Hot Stove season, without condescension, I am not left with much. LOL!!

[Nick]

Why complicate everything? Sign JD.

 

See where we are at trade deadline and make a move or two.

 

Signing Moreland was a brilliant move if it's used to get rid of Hanley's 2019 contract. Travis can be Moreland's platoon partner in 2019.

 

We got bunch of options at 2B until Dustin comes back. Otherwise make a move to sign a 2B at mid season.

 

This keeps our farm in tact.

[jacksonianmarch]

Because DD doesn’t want to give Boras what he wants. Boras wants 7 yr $210 mil. I bet DD sent over a 5yr $125 mil offer

[notin]

Why complicate everything? Sign JD.

 

See where we are at trade deadline and make a move or two.

 

Signing Moreland was a brilliant move if it's used to get rid of Hanley's 2019 contract. Travis can be Moreland's platoon partner in 2019.

 

We got bunch of options at 2B until Dustin comes back. Otherwise make a move to sign a 2B at mid season.

 

This keeps our farm in tact.

 

I'm thinking Swihart platoons with Moreland. Not a big deal either way, but Swihart is out of options, unlike Travis.

 

I'm not wild about the internal 2b options. But as the Sox have three of them, one of Holt, Hernandez or Marrero figures to start. It's entirely possible Holt starts the season in Pawtucket as he is the only one with an option left...

[Station 13]

Because DD doesn’t want to give Boras what he wants. Boras wants 7 yr $210 mil. I bet DD sent over a 5yr $125 mil offer

 

That might beat any other offer by far.

[a700hitter]

I'm thinking Swihart platoons with Moreland. Not a big deal either way, but Swihart is out of options, unlike Travis.

 

I'm not wild about the internal 2b options. But as the Sox have three of them, one of Holt, Hernandez or Marrero figures to start. It's entirely possible Holt starts the season in Pawtucket as he is the only one with an option left...

What has Swihart done to establish that he would be a proficient MLB first baseman or hitter? His career has been stalled for quite some time. He would have to go on an incredible tear in Spring Training to earn a roster spot.

[moonslav59]

Assuming we get JD and HRam stays, I see this....

 

Brentz gets traded. (JD is the DH and 4th OF'er, unless we trade JBJ, then Brentz stays.)

 

Marco wins the starting 2Bman job until Pedey returns.

 

Leon probably wins the second catcher slot with Swihart as an outside candidate.

 

The "eleven": Vaz, Leon, Moreland, HRam, JD, Marco, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ and Betts

 

That leaves two slots for this...

 

IF: Holt (one option) vs Marrero (no options) with Quiroz and Lin as outside candidates

 

Utility: Swihart (out of options), Brentz or Holt/Marrero

 

I don't see it as being too hard for Swihart to beat out Marrero, Brentz or possibly Leon. (Holt probably has a slot.)

 

[Kimmi]

Why complicate everything? Sign JD.

 

See where we are at trade deadline and make a move or two.

 

Signing Moreland was a brilliant move if it's used to get rid of Hanley's 2019 contract. Travis can be Moreland's platoon partner in 2019.

 

We got bunch of options at 2B until Dustin comes back. Otherwise make a move to sign a 2B at mid season.

 

This keeps our farm in tact.

 

I'm pretty sure that is the ultimate goal, once Martinez comes to his senses and is willing to accept a more reasonable offer.

 

That said, Martinez to the Red Sox is not a given. Dombrowski should have back up plans in place, which I'm sure he does.

[notin]

What has Swihart done to establish that he would be a proficient MLB first baseman or hitter? His career has been stalled for quite some time. He would have to go on an incredible tear in Spring Training to earn a roster spot.

 

He has that working against him.

 

What he has working for him is, for some reason, Dombrowski seems to like him. He's kept him through a few trading opportunities. He facilitated an ill-conceived switch to LF to keep his bat in the majors. DD might have a bit of a man-crush on Swihart.

 

And as Swihart is out of options, it looks like (although I might be misinterpreting things here) he and fellow option-less teammates Marrero and Brentz appear to have some sort of inside track to the roster. At least we know DD hasn't done much to supplant them so far.

 

Although soxprospects.com apparently has less faith in Swihart and Brentz than I do. (I did not know it was possible to have less faith in Brentz than I do..)

[cp176]

Assuming we get JD and HRam stays, I see this....

 

Brentz gets traded. (JD is the DH and 4th OF'er, unless we trade JBJ, then Brentz stays.)

 

Marco wins the starting 2Bman job until Pedey returns.

 

Leon probably wins the second catcher slot with Swihart as an outside candidate.

 

The "eleven": Vaz, Leon, Moreland, HRam, JD, Marco, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ and Betts

 

That leaves two slots for this...

 

IF: Holt (one option) vs Marrero (no options) with Quiroz and Lin as outside candidates

 

Utility: Swihart (out of options), Brentz or Holt/Marrero

 

I don't see it as being too hard for Swihart to beat out Marrero, Brentz or possibly Leon. (Holt probably has a slot.)

 

 

I think that that looks pretty good!

[harmony]

That might beat any other offer by far.

If that is true teams that previously thought they could not afford J.D. Martinez might enter the bidding.

 

A competent agent might cold-call teams to say the top offer is five years and $125 million. If another club or clubs decide to top that offer, the team with the original top offer may up its bid ... or not.

 

The negotiations almost certainly will resolve before players are due to report to Spring Training.

[Bellhorn04]

If that is true teams that previously thought they could not afford J.D. Martinez might enter the bidding.

 

A competent agent might cold-call teams to say the top offer is five years and $125 million. If another club or clubs decide to top that offer, the team with the original top offer may up its bid ... or not.

 

The negotiations almost certainly will resolve before players are due to report to Spring Training.

 

Boras's stated asking price of 7/210 was an absolute joke. The MLBTR prediction of 6/150 was reasonable.

[a700hitter]

He has that working against him.

 

What he has working for him is, for some reason, Dombrowski seems to like him. He's kept him through a few trading opportunities. He facilitated an ill-conceived switch to LF to keep his bat in the majors. DD might have a bit of a man-crush on Swihart.

 

And as Swihart is out of options, it looks like (although I might be misinterpreting things here) he and fellow option-less teammates Marrero and Brentz appear to have some sort of inside track to the roster. At least we know DD hasn't done much to supplant them so far.

 

Although soxprospects.com apparently has less faith in Swihart and Brentz than I do. (I did not know it was possible to have less faith in Brentz than I do..)

Would he have to be DFA'd if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training? Would they still have to DFA him if they don't invite him to Spring Training?

[harmony]

Boras's stated asking price of 7/210 was an absolute joke. The MLBTR prediction of 6/150 was reasonable.

For all we know the Red Sox opening offer to J.D. Martinez could have been considered "an absolute joke." Remember the reported offer to Jon Lester.

 

It's the nature of negotiations for one side to start high and the other side low.

[harmony]

Off topic, but the Red Sox and my Seattle Mariners are well-represented on this Baseball Prospectus list of Top 50 "busted" prospects:

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36851/best-bp-2017-top-50-busted-prospects/

Edited January 1, 2018 by harmony

[harmony]

A Yankee blogger offers an odd pairing in this lengthy critique of the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox:

 

https://yanksgoyard.com/2017/12/30/yankees-avoid-missteps-redsox-mariners/