A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Stanton facing all these Lefties in Fenway ought to be interesting.

 

Good lefties can use Fenway to their advantage. Besides, Fenway is not an HR park.

[OH FOY]

Any Park is HR park for Stanton. He played in Miami one of the worst, HR hitting Parks. What's his splits compared to RHP? Edited January 2, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Any Park is HR park for Stanton. He played in Miami one of the worst, HR hitting Parks. What's his splits compared to RHP?

 

If parks don't matter, why bring it up?

 

Stanton's HR splits:

 

198 in 3171 PAs vs RHPs (6.2%)

 

69 in 949 vs LHPs (7.3%)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Good lefties can use Fenway to their advantage. Besides, Fenway is not an HR park.

 

Overall it's not an HR park but it can be for a RH power hitter who hits fly balls more than line drives.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fenway is absolutely a RH hitters HR park. It’s death to lefties for power.

[Bellhorn04]

Fenway is absolutely a RH hitters HR park. It’s death to lefties for power.

 

It's a doubles park for RH hitters who hit mostly line drives.

 

It's also a good hitting park for lefty hitters who can go to the opposite field.

[jacksonianmarch]

Every hitter hits line drives. Every hitter also hits fly balls. RH hitters will, on average, hit more fly balls to LF than lefties would. Fenway is a place where a fly ball to LF has a better chance to leave the park or hit the wall than it would in other parks where similar hits would be outs. I get the doubles nonsense. But Fenway has also claimed its share of cans of corn to LCF and turned them into HRs

[Bellhorn04]

The bottom line is, there are a lot more doubles hit at Fenway than at other parks, on average. There are also fewer home runs hit at Fenway than average.

 

The doubles increase is more pronounced than the home run reduction, and therefore it's a hitter's park in general. But the misconception has often been that it's a hitter's park because of balls going over the wall. It's actually all the balls that go off the wall.

[Spudboy]

Every hitter hits line drives. Every hitter also hits fly balls. RH hitters will, on average, hit more fly balls to LF than lefties would. Fenway is a place where a fly ball to LF has a better chance to leave the park or hit the wall than it would in other parks where similar hits would be outs. I get the doubles nonsense. But Fenway has also claimed its share of cans of corn to LCF and turned them into HRs

 

Don't forget all the line drives or other hard hit balls that clank off the wall for a single or double. Many of those hits would be home runs in places like Yankee stadium.

[Spudboy]

The bottom line is, there are a lot more doubles hit at Fenway than at other parks, on average. There are also fewer home runs hit at Fenway than average.

 

The doubles increase is more pronounced than the home run reduction, and therefore it's a hitter's park in general. But the misconception has often been that it's a hitter's park because of balls going over the wall. It's actually all the balls that go off the wall.

 

My eyeballs say this as well.

[Bellhorn04]

Yankee Stadium has the crazy short porch in right, but it's deep in left and centre.

[Spudboy]

Yankee Stadium has the crazy short porch in right, but it's deep in left and centre.

 

Yeah I don't know the exact dimensions but I am speaking of parks that have lowish walls in left and are not that deep. Lots of line drive home runs.

 

Maybe I picked the wrong park to illustrate my point.

[a700hitter]

Yankee Stadium has the crazy short porch in right, but it's deep in left and centre.

It has average dimensions in CF and LF. Nothing especially deep. LFC at 390 is the one tough spot, but that tapers down drastically as you move toward LF.

Edited January 3, 2018 by a700hitter

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah I don't know the exact dimensions but I am speaking of parks that have lowish walls in left and are not that deep. Lots of line drive home runs.

 

Maybe I picked the wrong park to illustrate my point.

 

Exactly. Few balls out of YS in LF will not get out in Fenway

[moonslav59]

Fenway is absolutely a RH hitters HR park. It’s death to lefties for power.

 

Absolutely? Not really. You should look at the numbers before you make bold statements like that.

 

Home HRs last year (Away):

 

RHBs

10 HRam (13)

8 Betts (16)

4 Vaz (1)

4 Nunez (4)

4 Pedey (3)

4 Young (3)

4 Bogey (6)

1 Marrero (3)

Total by RHBs: H39/A49 (10 more AWAY!)

 

LHBs:

10 Moreland (12)

7 Beni (13)

6 Devers (4)

6 JBJ (11)

Total by LHBs: H29/A40 (11 more away)

 

Switch Hitters:

3 Leon (4)

2 Pablo (2)

Total: H5/A6

 

I don't have the breakdown of PAs by RHBs vs LHBs at home vs away, but overall, RHBs had 3704 PAs and LHBs had 2336 PAs.

 

RHBs 90 HRs per 3704 PAs (2.4%)

LHBs 78 HRs per 2336 PAs (3.3%)

 

2003-2017 HRs

Home: 1333 in 47,075 PAs (2.8%)

Away: 1486 in 43,036 PAs (3.6%)

 

H/A HRs

221/262 Ortiz

97/103 Manny

73/67 Pedey

65/68 Youk

 

Pitchers pitch lefty and righty batters much differently in Fenway than other parks.

 

 

[Elktonnick]

Fenway is absolutely a RH hitters HR park. It’s death to lefties for power.

 

Yea, those kids Williams, Ortiz, Yastrzemski and Vaughn (1,2,3 and 7) on the all time Red Sox HR list sure had a tough time at Fenway.

[moonslav59]

Yea, those kids Williams, Ortiz, Yastrzemski and Vaughn (1,2,3 and 7) on the all time Red Sox HR list sure had a tough time at Fenway.

 

And maybe the best RH'd hitting player of all time, Manny Ramires, hit more HRs away than at home while with the Red Sox.

 

I see nothing "absolute" about Fenway being an HR park for righties. In fact, the numbers show the opposite.

 

Here's more....

 

Our pitching staff let up more HRs Away (104 to 91).

 

RHBs hit 130 HRs in 4220 PAs (3.1%).

 

LHBs hit 65 HRs in 1997 PAs (3.3%),

[cp176]

Well isn't this just a nice discussion about our park being a hr hitter's paradise or not. Sorry guys but it is pain in the ass time. I have been duly educated this year with respect to how insignificant the homerun ball really is. LOL - Don't you all get it - if you have enough punch and judies you just don't need that big bopper. You put the guys who can lay the lumber out there and they will make Fenway look like a power hitter's paradise as they have in the past. Makes no difference which side of the plate the hit from.

[moonslav59]

Well isn't this just a nice discussion about our park being a hr hitter's paradise or not. Sorry guys but it is pain in the ass time. I have been duly educated this year with respect to how insignificant the homerun ball really is. LOL - Don't you all get it - if you have enough punch and judies you just don't need that big bopper. You put the guys who can lay the lumber out there and they will make Fenway look like a power hitter's paradise as they have in the past. Makes no difference which side of the plate the hit from.

 

Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.

[cp176]

Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.

 

You are killing my dreams Moon!

[moonslav59]

I'm all for hitting more home runs anywhere we play.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

The Fenway home run haven argument is based on the short distance in left field. The problem with this is the height of the " Green Monster ". Right handed hitters who lift the ball can benefit. But line drive type hitters will actually lose home runs. This is pretty much common knowledge by now. The famous " short porch " in right at Yankee Stadium has always led to the Yankees looking for left handed pull hitters. They had much success with this. But the shifts employed in recent years have hurt the batting averages of these type of hitters. Now , we see the Yankees becoming more right hand oriented. The bottom line is that you want to build a versatile team. A team with on base percentage , power and speed. Baseball is probably the only major sport without a uniform playing field. But you can make a mistake by trying to tailor your team to your own park. Put together a good , well balanced lineup . Don't just look for someone who can hit it over the " Monster ".

[notin]

The Green Monster was the main reason I always felt Matt Kemp was a horrible fit for the Sox, even in his heyday. He rips powerful line drives that never looked like they would clear the monster. I think he would have set the tram record for wall ball singles, which isn't a bad thing but also not why the Sox would have acquired him....

[notin]

Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.

 

To be fair, we also typically bat in more innings in road games, where the Sox always come up in the ninth. As opposed to home games where the Sox only did if they were tied or trailing....

[mvp 78]

Every hitter hits line drives. Every hitter also hits fly balls. RH hitters will, on average, hit more fly balls to LF than lefties would. Fenway is a place where a fly ball to LF has a better chance to leave the park or hit the wall than it would in other parks where similar hits would be outs. I get the doubles nonsense. But Fenway has also claimed its share of cans of corn to LCF and turned them into HRs

 

But not enough for them to be an average HR park. It's an above average doubles and triples park. It's a below average HR park.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, we also typically bat in more innings in road games, where the Sox always come up in the ninth. As opposed to home games where the Sox only did if they were tied or trailing....

 

True, but since we score more at home, we often get more PAs in the process, so, here is fair:

 

2003-2017

Home: 47,075 PAs

1,333 HRs 2.8%

202 3Bs 0.4%

2,932 2Bs 6.2%

7,478 1Bs 15.9%

4,937 BBs+HBPs 10.5%

 

HRs per AB: 3.2% (1333 in 41567)

 

Away: 48,036

1,486 HRs 3.1%

192 3Bs 0.4%

2,151 2Bs 4.5%

7,261 1Bs 15.1%

4,840 BBs+ HBPs 10.1%

 

HRs per AB: 3.6% (1486 in 43036)

 

Still, clearly more HRs Away than Home. Significantly more 2Bs at home and more singles and BBs at home.

 

How about our pitchers?

 

Home PAs against: 47535

1,169 HRs 2.46%

0.95 HR/9

9.6% HR/FB

 

Away PAs against: 45702

1310 HRs 2.87%

1.11 HR/9

11.0% HR/FB

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I know Hosmer is younger, but if he gets $147M/7, I have to think JD will get more than some of us are hoping he has to settle on.

 

I guess it comes down to what another team might offer him, or if there is even a second team.

[mvp 78]

I know Hosmer is younger, but if he gets $147M/7, I have to think JD will get more than some of us are hoping he has to settle on.

 

I guess it comes down to what another team might offer him, or if there is even a second team.

 

I think 5/150 sounds about right. I think they are willing to overpay for less years. If JD mashes for 5 years, he'll have another good payday after. Right now, Sox are just bidding against themselves which is why Boras was floating out the "he wants to really play OF" angle to increase the number of interested teams.

[harmony]

I know Hosmer is younger, but if he gets $147M/7, I have to think JD will get more than some of us are hoping he has to settle on.

 

I guess it comes down to what another team might offer him, or if there is even a second team.

I would add the Padres and Royals to my earlier list of Phillies, White Sox and Brewers as teams that can afford J.D. Martinez.

 

The Red Sox have competition.

[moonslav59]

I think 5/150 sounds about right. I think they are willing to overpay for less years. If JD mashes for 5 years, he'll have another good payday after. Right now, Sox are just bidding against themselves which is why Boras was floating out the "he wants to really play OF" angle to increase the number of interested teams.

 

I'm not sure how that "increases interest," since teams needing an OF'er already know he plays OF and about how much he will cost. They have not bid already, because they either don't need an OF'er or they do not want to pay what it might take to get him. So many teams usual high-bidders are looking to reset their tax this year.

 

I'm wondering if any other team would even offer $125/5, or would if they knew the price was dropping.