A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Larry Cook]

Why play the games, when we can all just read fangraphs!

 

We won 93 games last year with this lineup.

 

We lost several games we should have won because we ran out of pitching due to injuries.

 

Seems like a no brainer. We need pitching!

[moonslav59]

We also lost several nicely-pitched games due to a weak offense.

 

We lost 14 games while allowing just 3 or less runs. I doubt any other contenders lost that many low scoring games. We were 13-14 in games when we scored 4 runs. (We were 30-23 in games allowing 3-4 runs, while we were 19-15 in games where we score just 3-4 runs.)

 

I'm always for upgrading the staff, as long as it is from the top or middle. I dislike moves that aim to improve our #5 SP'er.

 

One traditional way of attempting to improve your team is to first identify your weakest link and then to try and significantly improve that Link or links.

 

It's not a "no brainer" to say pitching is our highest need area. ERod's injury is worrisome, but he wasn't a major part of this year's highly successful pitching staff. Price's elbow scares the bejesus out of me. Yes, I'd love to acquire a 1, 2 or 3 slot 3 SP'er to help ease those concerns, but I think a very strong case can be made that our clean-up slot was and continues to be our weakest area.

 

The optimist's view of our staff.

 

We should have Carson Smith for a full year and maybe Thornburg for a good chunk. Pom seems to have come of age. Porcello just needs to pitch to his average season. Sale is an ace. Price is the wildcard. We need a 5th starter, but I'm sick of the Masterson type signings.

 

Our pen seemingly over performed this year, but with Smith, Thornburg and full seasons from Workman and Maddox we should at least be as good as 2017.

 

Kimbrel

Smith

Kelly

Barnes

Maddox

Hembree

Scott

 

Nice depth:

Workman

Thornburg

Taylor

Martin

 

SP'ers as RP'ers (or SP'er depth?)

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Beeks

Haley

Elias

Shepherd

Shawaryn

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Interesting that the Tribune has the Sox offense seeing positive regression in 2018 with the Yankees showing negative regression...

 

If the Tribune says it, it must be so!

 

I'm not sure when those standings were last updated?

 

That said, some positive regression from the Sox and some negative regression from the Yankees is not unrealistic.

[Kimmi]

Why play the games, when we can all just read fangraphs!

 

We won 93 games last year with this lineup.

 

We lost several games we should have won because we ran out of pitching due to injuries.

 

Seems like a no brainer. We need pitching!

 

Fangraphs is the bomb. No one should ever diss it.

[moonslav59]

fangraphs is fangraphs: the game is the game.

 

They are not the same.

 

Both have value and usefulness.

[sk7326]

There is reason to expect positive regression. The team won 93 games without anybody having an uncommonly good year (aside from Devers). If you go through the lineup positions.

 

C: Leon hit like a backup. Vasquez was by the end of the year his most likely best case scenario - pesky hitter to get out, but largely an empty .270 sort of dude

1B: Moreland has meh on base skills but can hit 20 HRs. Right in the middle, maybe better than that - of what you could have expected.

2B: Injuries, injuries.

SS: Bogaerts struggled. How much of it was injury related? I think a lot - but it is an open question.

3B: Devers was a revelation clearly.

LF: Benintendi was fine. Not amazing, but clearly good.

CF: Bradley was a mild disappointment but this is probably what he is. A bit of a three outcome player who fields well enough to support it.

RF: Betts was an MVP level performer - but yes dropped off a bit at the plate.

DH: Ramirez was probably what you'd expect from him these days, but not very good.

[oldtimer]

We also lost several nicely-pitched games due to a weak offense.

 

We lost 14 games while allowing just 3 or less runs. I doubt any other contenders lost that many low scoring games. We were 13-14 in games when we scored 4 runs. (We were 30-23 in games allowing 3-4 runs, while we were 19-15 in games where we score just 3-4 runs.)

 

I'm always for upgrading the staff, as long as it is from the top or middle. I dislike moves that aim to improve our #5 SP'er.

 

One traditional way of attempting to improve your team is to first identify your weakest link and then to try and significantly improve that Link or links.

 

It's not a "no brainer" to say pitching is our highest need area. ERod's injury is worrisome, but he wasn't a major part of this year's highly successful pitching staff. Price's elbow scares the bejesus out of me. Yes, I'd love to acquire a 1, 2 or 3 slot 3 SP'er to help ease those concerns, but I think a very strong case can be made that our clean-up slot was and continues to be our weakest area.

 

The optimist's view of our staff.

 

We should have Carson Smith for a full year and maybe Thornburg for a good chunk. Pom seems to have come of age. Porcello just needs to pitch to his average season. Sale is an ace. Price is the wildcard. We need a 5th starter, but I'm sick of the Masterson type signings.

 

Our pen seemingly over performed this year, but with Smith, Thornburg and full seasons from Workman and Maddox we should at least be as good as 2017.

 

Kimbrel

Smith

Kelly

Barnes

Maddox

Hembree

Scott

 

Nice depth:

Workman

Thornburg

Taylor

Martin

 

SP'ers as RP'ers (or SP'er depth?)

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Beeks

Haley

Elias

Shepherd

Shawaryn

 

 

 

 

I agree that we need another big bat to give us a better chance of winning lower scoring games. I also believe that by signing Moreland DD has decreased his options for making a meaningful move for the following reasons.

 

1. With Moreland/Rameriz locked in at 1st, Devers is now certainly going to remain at 3rd.

2. Rameriz is normally going to be the DH barring injury.

3. Our most likely offensive improvement areas are for 2nd for around 1/2 of the season and possibly an outfielder/DH addition.

4. An outfielder addition might mean JBJ gets traded with a smaller net gain as a result.

 

As a result, I see DD's choices as being JD if the price is right and a Nunez type for 2nd. I believe the addition of Moreland has taken others off the table.

[moonslav59]

So, this is where we stand right now...

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Beni LF

3. Betts RF

4. Moreland 1B vs RHP/ HRam 1B vs LHPs

5. Devers 3B

6. HRam DH vs RHPs/ Brentz DH vs LHPs

7. JBJ CF

8. Hernandez (Pedey) 2B

9. Vaz C

 

Bench:

C: Leon

Moreland or Brentz

2 from Swihart (out of options), Holt or Marrero (out of options)

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Price

SP3 Pom

SP4 Porcello

SP5 (ERod DL)/Wright/Velazquez/Johnson

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2 Smith

RP3 Kelly

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Maddox

RP6 Hembree (out of options)

RP7 (Thornburg DL), Scott/Workman/Taylor/Martin

 

[sk7326]

pitching is a need in the way that no team is ever set there - attrition is a bear. but this team needs to convert baserunners into runs - that was the problem.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Steven Wright

By Jeff Todd | December 22, 2017 at 6:44pm CDT

 

The domestic assault case against Red Sox righty Steven Wright has been “retired,” as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reported yesterday. That puts him on track to resolution of the possible legal trouble that arose out of a domestic incident earlier this month. That does not mean that Major League Baseball cannot continue to investigate the matter and decide for itself whether to issue discipline under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy. Indeed, the commissioner’s office says it is continuing to look into the incident, though of course there’s no indication at this point whether there will be any punishment forthcoming.

[Larry Cook]

MLBTR reports...

 

Steven Wright

By Jeff Todd | December 22, 2017 at 6:44pm CDT

 

The domestic assault case against Red Sox righty Steven Wright has been “retired,” as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reported yesterday. That puts him on track to resolution of the possible legal trouble that arose out of a domestic incident earlier this month. That does not mean that Major League Baseball cannot continue to investigate the matter and decide for itself whether to issue discipline under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy. Indeed, the commissioner’s office says it is continuing to look into the incident, though of course there’s no indication at this point whether there will be any punishment forthcoming.

 

1.) Price’s elbow (last we saw) has a tear in it. That thing is a pop away from costing him 18 plus months.

2.) Rodriguez is going to miss the start of the season due to knee surgery!

3.) porcello has a sinker that does not sink and gave up a ton of taters! Can we continue to roll out a 5 plus era every fifth day next year?

4.) sale is one skinny dude! Can his bony arm continue to pitch 200 plus innings and have anything left in the tank for the playoffs! If last year was as any indication, the answer is no!

5.) is Pomeranz a one year wonder. ( see porcello) How does his elbow, which was barking a while back, hold up next year!

6.) Wright is probably facing a 30 game suspension and has not pitched worth a crap in over a year!

7.) Johnson is probably better suited for the pen!

8.) Elias would look good in a reds uniform.

9.) Velasquez - I expect a year two leap from him. He could be our unsung hero by November 2018.

 

So in summary, I would welcome another starter in a heartbeat in this team. I like Vargas! Let spring training sort it out and if everything comes up roses, we can very easily move a starter before the start of the 2018 season and replenish Death Valley, aka our farm system!

[harmony]

MLBTR reports...

 

Steven Wright

By Jeff Todd | December 22, 2017 at 6:44pm CDT

 

The domestic assault case against Red Sox righty Steven Wright has been “retired,” as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reported yesterday. That puts him on track to resolution of the possible legal trouble that arose out of a domestic incident earlier this month. That does not mean that Major League Baseball cannot continue to investigate the matter and decide for itself whether to issue discipline under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy. Indeed, the commissioner’s office says it is continuing to look into the incident, though of course there’s no indication at this point whether there will be any punishment forthcoming.

According to the Boston Herald article, Steven Wright's case was "retired" but not dismissed in the Tennessee court.

 

I don't know how Tennessee handles domestic violence cases but my jurisdiction offers a deferred sentencing program for select first-time offenders. Under the program the accused pleads guilty but sentencing is postponed to give the individual to opportunity to complete domestic violence treatment. The case is dismissed upon successful completion of treatment.

 

An accused may choose the deferred sentencing program for several reasons. He (or she) may think he or she is innocent of all charges but worries that a judge or jury might decide otherwise. He or she may welcome the treatment for his or her inappropriate behavior even if he or she thinks the prosecutor cannot prove each element of each crime. Or he or she might agree that he or she is guilty of all charges but views deferred sentencing as a means of avoiding a conviction and its collateral consequences (including loss of the right to carry a gun).

 

I have no idea where Steven Wright falls on that continuum (if he does at all). But the MLB investigators may look favorably upon Wright if he promptly and voluntarily entered such a program.

 

Or not.

[S5Dewey]

After a quick internet search..

 

"That means if you stay out of trouble for usually one year unless the parties agree upon a shorter time, the charge will be dismissed. If something happens during that period like you get in more trouble, come around the victim, etc then the charge can be brought back up and proceed as if the delay never happen. "

 

-Travis Thomas Overton

Criminal Defense Attorney

Nashville TN.

[cp176]

If the Tribune says it, it must be so!

 

I'm not sure when those standings were last updated?

 

That said, some positive regression from the Sox and some negative regression from the Yankees is not unrealistic.

 

Yes Virginia, there is a Santa claus! I saw that.

[cp176]

After a quick internet search..

 

"That means if you stay out of trouble for usually one year unless the parties agree upon a shorter time, the charge will be dismissed. If something happens during that period like you get in more trouble, come around the victim, etc then the charge can be brought back up and proceed as if the delay never happen. "

 

-Travis Thomas Overton

Criminal Defense Attorney

Nashville TN.

 

 

Based on our current social climate, I would be very surprised if he pitches in Boston again. Court of public opinion has more clout today than the real court in some instances.

[notin]

After a quick internet search..

 

"That means if you stay out of trouble for usually one year unless the parties agree upon a shorter time, the charge will be dismissed. If something happens during that period like you get in more trouble, come around the victim, etc then the charge can be brought back up and proceed as if the delay never happen. "

 

-Travis Thomas Overton

Criminal Defense Attorney

Nashville TN.

 

So basically.. probation...

[notin]

 

As a result, I see DD's choices as being JD if the price is right and a Nunez type for 2nd.

 

The Giants' acquisition of Longoria has actually increased the likelihood of nunez returning to Boston (assuming DD has any interest)...

[oldtimer]

The Giants' acquisition of Longoria has actually increased the likelihood of nunez returning to Boston (assuming DD has any interest)...

 

Yes, the moves made by others have implications for our team as well. Our main needs being for a big bat, to shore up 2nd and to gain some pitching. Good luck to DD as to date his moves have been largely sub rosa.

[notin]

Yes, the moves made by others have implications for our team as well. Our main needs being for a big bat, to shore up 2nd and to gain some pitching. Good luck to DD as to date his moves have been largely sub rosa.

 

Or non-existant.

 

I hope he plans to shore up 2B. REally I have very little confidence in Hernandez, and his only actual move was the completely untried wild card Esteban Quiroz. We might need someone to play 2B all year if things don't work out with Pedroia, and at least half a season even if they do. Not really sure why this is being ignored so.

 

My only real hope here is that DD is not being open and honest, which I don't expect from him anyway, and he does have another plan for 2B, be it Nunez or Kendrick or ???

 

On the other hand, he really needs to make a move at some point. All of this waiting for Boras to blink on JD Martinez should in no way impact a lot of other needs. Like signing some pitchers to minor league deals for depth purposes, getting a 2B stopgap/starter, maybe signing one of the remaining Braves' refugees.

[oldtimer]

Or non-existant.

 

I hope he plans to shore up 2B. REally I have very little confidence in Hernandez, and his only actual move was the completely untried wild card Esteban Quiroz. We might need someone to play 2B all year if things don't work out with Pedroia, and at least half a season even if they do. Not really sure why this is being ignored so.

 

My only real hope here is that DD is not being open and honest, which I don't expect from him anyway, and he does have another plan for 2B, be it Nunez or Kendrick or ???

 

On the other hand, he really needs to make a move at some point. All of this waiting for Boras to blink on JD Martinez should in no way impact a lot of other needs. Like signing some pitchers to minor league deals for depth purposes, getting a 2B stopgap/starter, maybe signing one of the remaining Braves' refugees.

 

I totally agree and am nervous with the lack of movement to date.

[Bellhorn04]

There's more stuff coming, and I strongly expect that to include J D Martinez.

 

What's a little scary is that we're already projected at 207 million for tax purposes without having done anything!

[Nick]

About a week ago, one member of the organization told me that there really might not be that much of a difference between Hosmer and Moreland. Besides three years in age, and batting average, perhaps. There is a difference, no doubt. But not $100 million difference, to be sure. Per WEEI

 

I think Moon was very much opposed to signing Hosmer.

[moonslav59]

Or non-existant.

 

I hope he plans to shore up 2B. REally I have very little confidence in Hernandez, and his only actual move was the completely untried wild card Esteban Quiroz. We might need someone to play 2B all year if things don't work out with Pedroia, and at least half a season even if they do. Not really sure why this is being ignored so.

 

My only real hope here is that DD is not being open and honest, which I don't expect from him anyway, and he does have another plan for 2B, be it Nunez or Kendrick or ???

 

On the other hand, he really needs to make a move at some point. All of this waiting for Boras to blink on JD Martinez should in no way impact a lot of other needs. Like signing some pitchers to minor league deals for depth purposes, getting a 2B stopgap/starter, maybe signing one of the remaining Braves' refugees.

 

Well, we did trade for Nunez mid season this year, so there is some merit to the idea of letting Hernandez get a shot (and maybe Quiroz, Holt, marrero or Lin, if he struggles) and then look for the next Nunez type at the deadline, if needed, and if Pedey is not coming back.

 

I do think we should wait it out on JD. It seems like the bidders are dropping not rising in number.

 

Get a pitcher and wait.

[moonslav59]

About a week ago, one member of the organization told me that there really might not be that much of a difference between Hosmer and Moreland. Besides three years in age, and batting average, perhaps. There is a difference, no doubt. But not $100 million difference, to be sure. Per WEEI

 

I think Moon was very much opposed to signing Hosmer.

 

Yes, I was. He has been wildly inconsistent from year to year, his defense has fallen off a cliff, and he's no better (or not much better) than many of the other available 1Bmen- some of whom are much cheaper. What got me the most was the fact that he has had one of the worst first base ISO numbers (power) in MLB. We needed power. 1B is THE POWER POSITION. Why fill it with a singles and doubles hitter at $20M+ a year for 4+ years?

 

[Nick]

Yes, I was. He has been wildly inconsistent from year to year, his defense has fallen off a cliff, and he's no better (or not much better) than many of the other available 1Bmen- some of whom are much cheaper. What got me the most was the fact that he has had one of the worst first base ISO numbers (power) in MLB. We needed power. 1B is THE POWER POSITION. Why fill it with a singles and doubles hitter at $20M+ a year for 4+ years?

 

 

I'm a big college basketball fan. I always chuckle when a coach complains about needing this and that. Why not just recruit what you need? Don't recruit a skinny kid if you need size. Don't recruit a non shooter if need shooting, etc.

 

Sign Martinez and call it a day.

[cp176]

1.) Price’s elbow (last we saw) has a tear in it. That thing is a pop away from costing him 18 plus months.

2.) Rodriguez is going to miss the start of the season due to knee surgery!

3.) porcello has a sinker that does not sink and gave up a ton of taters! Can we continue to roll out a 5 plus era every fifth day next year?

4.) sale is one skinny dude! Can his bony arm continue to pitch 200 plus innings and have anything left in the tank for the playoffs! If last year was as any indication, the answer is no!

5.) is Pomeranz a one year wonder. ( see porcello) How does his elbow, which was barking a while back, hold up next year!

6.) Wright is probably facing a 30 game suspension and has not pitched worth a crap in over a year!

7.) Johnson is probably better suited for the pen!

8.) Elias would look good in a reds uniform.

9.) Velasquez - I expect a year two leap from him. He could be our unsung hero by November 2018.

 

So in summary, I would welcome another starter in a heartbeat in this team. I like Vargas! Let spring training sort it out and if everything comes up roses, we can very easily move a starter before the start of the 2018 season and replenish Death Valley, aka our farm system!

 

lol- Larry has spoken. We have no chance! Our entire starting pitching staff sucks.

[harmony]

I'm a big college basketball fan. I always chuckle when a coach complains about needing this and that. Why not just recruit what you need? Don't recruit a skinny kid if you need size. Don't recruit a non shooter if need shooting, etc.

 

Sign Martinez and call it a day.

Boston remains the most likely landing spot for J.D. Martinez.

 

The issues are the price and duration of his contract. A short-term gain could come with a long-term detriment.

 

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval as the top two hitters in the 2014-15 free agent class:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

... while ranking J.D. Martinez as the top hitter in this year's lackluster free agent class:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

[moonslav59]

I'm a big college basketball fan. I always chuckle when a coach complains about needing this and that. Why not just recruit what you need? Don't recruit a skinny kid if you need size. Don't recruit a non shooter if need shooting, etc.

 

Sign Martinez and call it a day.

 

Not all player you recruit sign with your team. You take what you get.

 

I'd wait it out on JD to see if we even have any serious competition. I don't believe reports on the Jays being interested. If they outbid us, I'll die of a heart attack on the spot. I'm thinking his price may drop to near what Upton got- maybe a little more.

[notin]

lol- Larry has spoken. We have no chance! Our entire starting pitching staff sucks.

 

And no one else's does. All those other teams are so medically adept and lucky to be immune to injury...

[notin]

There's more stuff coming, and I strongly expect that to include J D Martinez.

 

What's a little scary is that we're already projected at 207 million for tax purposes without having done anything!

 

But... but ... but we were all told the luxury tax would not be an issue this season...