A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Ding ding ding! You cannot pay top dollar for everyone. Betts right now would be an easy $25 mil per year open market FA. Bogey has probably hurt himself a bit but still looks like a $15-$18 mil per year player. Bradley probably similar. Sale is a $30+ mil per year player. Kimbrel likely $18-20 mil per year. Pom $20 mil per year if he repeats his 2017 performance. Add this to the $45 mil committed to Pedey and Price and you’ve got a ton committed to a small percentage of your team. Without cheap talent surrounding these guys, you won’t have a good team and you won’t have a team under the final lux tax. Every long term penny committed this offseason adds to that total and likely represents saying goodbye to one of your younger core players

 

That's why it would make some sense to trade JBJ for prospects, especially if we sign Martinez.

[moonslav59]

That's why it would make some sense to trade JBJ for prospects, especially if we sign Martinez.

 

If we sign Shaw, and Smith or Thronburg look strong, notin's suggestion of trading Kimbrel might make more sense.

 

JBJ has 3 years of control left. Trading someone's who's contract ends in 1-2 years makes more sense.

 

(I seriously doubt DD is even contemplating trading a vet.)

[Bellhorn04]

If we sign Shaw, and Smith or Thronburg look strong, notin's suggestion of trading Kimbrel might make more sense.

 

JBJ has 3 years of control left. Trading someone's who's contract ends in 1-2 years makes more sense.

 

(I seriously doubt DD is even contemplating trading a vet.)

 

Yeah, it's all just thoughts. But it does demonstrate a possible avenue of trimming payroll and replenishing the farm.

[a700hitter]

You ignorant little dip s***. Quit being such a whinny little pussy.

 

Now that would be a childish response to your post. I just don't see that much of that here.

 

I simply ignored back and forth between Moon and a700hitter. It was giving me a headache.

 

It has been a slow winter so far. Not much news to discuss. Hang in there Hitch. More the merrier.

You should have called him a clown. That always elevates the discourse.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's all just thoughts. But it does demonstrate a possible avenue of trimming payroll and replenishing the farm.

 

I'm not sure the Sox have traded a key player for prospects while in competition for the playoffs for as long as I have followed them.

 

I guess there's a first time for everything, but DD does not seem like the type of GM to be the first at something like this.

[moonslav59]

You should have called him a clown. That always elevates the discourse.

 

Clowns often are very entertaining. I'm a big ICP fan.

 

They've been getting a bad rap recently.

 

Dip shits rarely have any upside.

[dgalehouse]

Dombrowski takes over a team that had back to back , dismal last place finishes. Rebuilds a pitching staff that had more ham and eggers than Mom's Diner . Survives the retirement of David Ortiz. Wins back to back A.L. East titles. Gets rid of Farrell. Hires the coveted Alex Cora. Now looks to add some punch to the lineup in an attempt to put the team over the top. ......... The thanks he gets : " D.D. blew up the farm , we are doomed ". Go figure. Cherington nostalgia running wild.

[a700hitter]

Clowns often are very entertaining. I'm a big ICP fan.

 

They've been getting a bad rap recently.

 

Dip shits rarely have any upside.

I seek to entertain.

[moonslav59]

I seek to entertain.

 

I can tell.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski takes over a team that had back to back , dismal last place finishes. Rebuilds a pitching staff that had more ham and eggers than Mom's Diner . Survives the retirement of David Ortiz. Wins back to back A.L. East titles. Gets rid of Farrell. Hires the coveted Alex Cora. Now looks to add some punch to the lineup in an attempt to put the team over the top. ......... The thanks he gets : " D.D. blew up the farm , we are doomed ". Go figure. Cherington nostalgia running wild.

 

Every GM gets praised for what they do well and criticism for what they do "wrong"- along with everything in between.

 

DD has done a spectacular job at getting us highly competitive in a short time. There's nothing wrong with discussing the downsides of his moves.

 

Those of us who praise Ben's farm building skills have also been highly critical of the many mistakes he made and his failure to keep us highly competitive.

 

If your are seeing unqualified "nostalgia", then you are not seeing the whole picture.

[Nick]

For those sick of reading about future tough times, stop reading here.

 

Current Core of this team: (Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.)

 

Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M)

Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M)

Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M)

Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary)

Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M)

Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018)

JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018)

Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021

Price $31M until the end of 2022

 

Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs)

Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs)

 

Role Players:

Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M)

Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs

Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs

Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs

ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs

 

 

Sunken cost coming off the books:

HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests)

Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021

Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M

 

Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents.

 

If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then.

 

I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind.

 

Kimmi's point about who fills the other 10-15 slots on the roster is actually a bigger issue than this.

 

 

Good stuff Moon.

 

Kimbrel, Xander, JBJ, in that order based on your salary projection is where I would look for cheaper alternative.

Porcello is a no brainer. His $20M would come off of my books and be replaced with someone with league minimum, eliminating $20M off of our payroll.

 

You have to pick and chose your battles.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Good stuff Moon.

 

Kimbrel, Xander, JBJ, in that order based on your salary projection is where I would look for cheaper alternative.

Porcello is a no brainer. His $20M would come off of my books and be replaced with someone with league minimum, eliminating $20M off of our payroll.

 

You have to pick and chose your battles.

 

I guess you are assuming the 2017 Porcello is the real Porcello. Without the 2016 Porcello, we might not be talking about 2 division titles in a row.

 

Even as "bad" as Porcello looked this year, he still was clearly better than replacement level. He had a 2.0 WAR and is projected at 2.4 next year. (He was at 5.1 in 2016.)

 

I do agree, we will not bring Porcello back, but we will likely need a solid #3/4 starter to replace him, assuming Sale & Price are going strong. That will cost much more than a minimum salary.

 

What would really help is if for once we could get a solid starter from our farm: Beeks, Groome, Johnson, Velazquez, some one else?

 

I'm not seeing it, but it certainly is possible.

 

I also think replacing Bogey seems like one of the most likely to let go and replace with someone much cheaper.

 

I disagree on JBJ. I'd look to keep him, but it's hard to know.

 

[Nick]

I guess you are assuming the 2017 Porcello is the real Porcello. Without the 2016 Porcello, we might not be talking about 2 division titles in a row.

 

Even as "bad" as Porcello looked this year, he still was clearly better than replacement level. He had a 2.0 WAR and is projected at 2.4 next year. (He was at 5.1 in 2016.)

 

I do agree, we will not bring Porcello back, but we will likely need a solid #3/4 starter to replace him, assuming Sale & Price are going strong. That will cost much more than a minimum salary.

 

What would really help is if for once we could get a solid starter from our farm: Beeks, Groome, Johnson, Velazquez, some one else?

 

I'm not seeing it, but it certainly is possible.

 

I also think replacing Bogey seems like one of the most likely to let go and replace with someone much cheaper.

 

I disagree on JBJ. I'd look to keep him, but it's hard to know.

 

 

If we replace Kimbrel, Xander and Porcello with cheaper opions, we can probably keep JBJ. We probably need to shed $50M from this group in order to sign or have signed , FA power bat for 2018, extend Pom, extend Sale and extend Betts.

[moonslav59]

Let's say we keep Kimbel and Pom next winter and let Kelly walk. We keep Sale and let Bogey walk after 2019.

 

We let Porcello go and keep Betts and JBJ.

 

We reap the benefits of losing HRam, Porcello & Castillo.

 

Here's a look at the 2021 preliminary roster:

 

SP1 Sale $31M+

SP2 Price $31M

SP3 Pom $20M

SP4 ERod $12M (last arb year)

SP5 Groom/Beeks/Johnson (min)

 

RP1 Kimbel $18M

RP2 ______ $?

RP3 ______ $?

RP4 Barnes $? last arb

RP5 Hembree $? last arb

RP6 Scott $? last arb

RP7 Maddox/Taylor/???

 

C _______ (Re-sign Vaz after 2020?)

1B Travis/Ockimey?

2B Pedey $13.75M

3B Devers (maybe 1st or 2nd arb?)

SS ______ (Hernandez last arb)

LF Beni $? 2nd of 3 arbs

CF JBJ $18M

RF Betts $28M

DH _____ (JD Martinez at $25+M?)

Bench: Swihart (3 of 4th arb), Lin or Marrero, Brentz, Chatham/???)

 

That's over $170M for 8 players

Sale, Price, Betts, Pom, BJ, Kimbrel, Pedey & ERod, This is not c oun ting any FA we sign this winter to more than 3 years. Then, we have the arb costs for Beni & Devers.

 

That doesn't leave much for the other 14-15 roster slots.

Edited December 3, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If we replace Kimbrel, Xander and Porcello with cheaper opions, we can probably keep JBJ. We probably need to shed $50M from this group in order to sign or have signed , FA power bat for 2018, extend Pom, extend Sale and extend Betts.

 

You're pretty close to my signing priorities.

 

Betts & Sale are at the top of my list.

 

JBJ is higher than Pom, but that could change after what we see in 2018.

 

Kimbrel will cost too much to keep, but he will not be easily replaced. We can hope Smith, Thornburg or Kelly step it up, and/or we can sign Shaw for $7M and save some there.

 

I think letting Porcello & Bogey go makes the most sense, but that does not total $50M in savings.

 

Pedey and Price are pretty much locked in to the end.

[Hitch]

You ignorant little dip s***. Quit being such a whinny little pussy.

 

Now that would be a childish response to your post. I just don't see that much of that here.

 

I simply ignored back and forth between Moon and a700hitter. It was giving me a headache.

 

It has been a slow winter so far. Not much news to discuss. Hang in there Hitch. More the merrier.

 

 

Ah, I'll not be going anywhere. For the most part its a great board with lots of interesting conversation and I come here for mostly all my Sox news. The petulance of some is becoming a bind, but so be it. Hopefully it'll settle down. I remember the arguments when Fred was here and I never thought it would end. Some of the same culprits couldn't help themselves then either, but it settled down in the end, so I live in hope.

[Kimmi]

But once again, we had virtually no pitching, so there was little choice but to trade a lot of those prospects for pitching, IMO.

 

If you were DD what would you have done to address the pitching?

 

1. Signing Price was 'okay'. I don't like the contract one bit, but I get that we needed pitching. I probably would have gone with one of the other free agent pitchers that were less expensive, but I'm okay with this move. No prospects lost.

 

2. I absolutely would not have traded for Kimbrel. I think we could have found another closer much cheaper who would have provided pretty much the same production in terms of closing out games.

 

3. I was okay with the trade for Pom, though I thought the cost was high. It was a move that needed to be done, IMO.

 

4. I actually liked the trades for Smith and Thornburg, but not in combination with the other trades for pitching. Acquire as many inexpensive but effective arms as you can, and see what sticks.

 

5. I would not have done the Sale trade. In hindsight, it turns out we needed him because of Price's injury, but at the time that we acquired him, our rotation was already pretty darn good. After already having acquired Price and Pom, Sale was a luxury that we did not need.

 

In short, I think that Dombrowski could have built a contending team without blowing up the farm.

[Kimmi]

That's why it would make some sense to trade JBJ for prospects, especially if we sign Martinez.

 

It actually would make some sense to trade one of our current players for prospects.

 

I'd hate to see our OF broken up though.

[Kimmi]

If we sign Shaw, and Smith or Thronburg look strong, notin's suggestion of trading Kimbrel might make more sense.

 

JBJ has 3 years of control left. Trading someone's who's contract ends in 1-2 years makes more sense.

 

(I seriously doubt DD is even contemplating trading a vet.)

 

I agree that trading Kimbrel would make more sense. As much as I like Kimbrel, I'd actually be okay with that if it brings back some decent prospects.

[Kimmi]

Ah, I'll not be going anywhere. For the most part its a great board with lots of interesting conversation and I come here for mostly all my Sox news. The petulance of some is becoming a bind, but so be it. Hopefully it'll settle down. I remember the arguments when Fred was here and I never thought it would end. Some of the same culprits couldn't help themselves then either, but it settled down in the end, so I live in hope.

 

You should actually come around more often Hitch.

[Bellhorn04]

1. Signing Price was 'okay'. I don't like the contract one bit, but I get that we needed pitching. I probably would have gone with one of the other free agent pitchers that were less expensive, but I'm okay with this move. No prospects lost.

 

2. I absolutely would not have traded for Kimbrel. I think we could have found another closer much cheaper who would have provided pretty much the same production in terms of closing out games.

 

3. I was okay with the trade for Pom, though I thought the cost was high. It was a move that needed to be done, IMO.

 

4. I actually liked the trades for Smith and Thornburg, but not in combination with the other trades for pitching. Acquire as many inexpensive but effective arms as you can, and see what sticks.

 

5. I would not have done the Sale trade. In hindsight, it turns out we needed him because of Price's injury, but at the time that we acquired him, our rotation was already pretty darn good. After already having acquired Price and Pom, Sale was a luxury that we did not need.

 

In short, I think that Dombrowski could have built a contending team without blowing up the farm.

 

If we subtract Sale and Kimbrel from the 2017 team, that's 11 fWAR gone.

[moonslav59]

...I would not have done the Sale trade. In hindsight, it turns out we needed him because of Price's injury, but at the time that we acquired him, our rotation was already pretty darn good. After already having acquired Price and Pom, Sale was a luxury that we did not need....

 

We also needed Sale due to Porcello, ERod, Weight and Pom's uncertainty this time last year.

[moonslav59]

I agree that trading Kimbrel would make more sense. As much as I like Kimbrel, I'd actually be okay with that if it brings back some decent prospects.

 

Since the closer role seems to have increased its value exponentially since we signed Kimbrel, we might end up getting close to what we gave up for him 2 winters ago.

 

We can't afford to trade Pom, and Kelly is the only other significant last season player on the roster. He's not bringing back top prospects.

[moonslav59]

If we subtract Sale and Kimbrel from the 2017 team, that's 11 fWAR gone.

 

True, but in theory, we'd have likely had other players in their place at a lesser cost.

 

What was the fWAR for Pom & Kimbrel in 2016?

[Nick]

True, but in theory, we'd have likely had other players in their place at a lesser cost.

 

What was the fWAR for Pom & Kimbrel in 2016?

 

This is what some always seem to forget. It's the delta not the absolute value lost. Basketball fans always worry about losing a 20 point scorer. The team is NOT going to score 20 less points a game next year. Someone else will score. Just not at 20 point clip perhaps.

[Kimmi]

If we subtract Sale and Kimbrel from the 2017 team, that's 11 fWAR gone.

 

I realize that those two were big parts of our 2017 team. It turns out that we needed Sale.

 

Some of us suggested before that perhaps some of the prospects used in the Kimbrel trade could have been packaged together with a couple of others to trade for Sale before 2016 instead of signing Price. The money saved on Price and Kimbrel could have been used to fill other holes. The net cost in both dollars and prospects would have been less than what it was.

[Kimmi]

Since the closer role seems to have increased its value exponentially since we signed Kimbrel, we might end up getting close to what we gave up for him 2 winters ago.

 

We can't afford to trade Pom, and Kelly is the only other significant last season player on the roster. He's not bringing back top prospects.

 

It does seem like closers are fetching a premium price. Paying a lot for relief pitchers has always been a bad move by GMs, IMO. If someone is willing to overpay for Kimbrel, I'd listen.

[moonslav59]

It does seem like closers are fetching a premium price. Paying a lot for relief pitchers has always been a bad move by GMs, IMO. If someone is willing to overpay for Kimbrel, I'd listen.

 

I just don't see it happening, even if we sign Shaw and another good RP'er.

 

IMO, trading Kimbrel is not on DD's mind.

 

It doesn't fit the win now plan.

[S5Dewey]

I just don't see it happening, even if we sign Shaw and another good RP'er.

 

IMO, trading Kimbrel is not on DD's mind.

 

It doesn't fit the win now plan.

 

DD could trade Kimbrel for some top prospects and avoid that cliff some are worried about. Of course, in the process he might be closing our window. 35 saves isn't to be sneezed at.

[dgalehouse]

I just don't see it happening, even if we sign Shaw and another good RP'er.

 

IMO, trading Kimbrel is not on DD's mind.

 

It doesn't fit the win now plan.

Some of the more analytic minded fans have their trendy idea that closers are overrated. I don't think many in baseball would agree. Moon , I remember you bemoaning the Kimbrel deal , and saying we should have held on to those rather marginal prospects and acquired KRod or Clippard to serve as closer. How would that have worked out ? The fact is , without Sale and Kimbrel there would not have been much to be excited about this past season.