A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Mariners have any interest in Michael Chavis, a 22-year-old fringe prospect with a 25.3 % strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in a minor league career that has yet to reach Triple A. In July the Mariners traded away their same-age, strikeout-prone, righthand-hitting slugger in outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, who is ranked higher than Chavis on the MLB.com prospect list:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017

 

Chavis was bothered by injuries early on. He's certainly not a lock prospect, but "fringe" might be too harsh.

 

31 HRs in 470 ABs is pretty good at A+/AA levels.

 

Baseball America ranked Chavis 96th mid season this year, before 14 HRs in 67 games at AA.

 

Would the Mariners be interested in Johnson, Beeks, Shawaryn, Swihart or Holt?

Edited November 10, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Chavis was bothered by injuries early on. He's certainly not a lock prospect, but "fringe" might be too harsh.

 

31 HRs in 470 ABs is pretty good at A+/AA levels.

 

Baseball America ranked Chavis 96th mid season this year, before 14 HRs in 67 games at AA.

 

Would the Mariners be interested in Johnson, Beeks, Shawaryn, Swihart or Holt?

The Mariners could toss Brian Johnson, Jalen Beeks and/or Mike Shawaryn on their heap of starters/long relievers who would pitch no more than four innings a game in the suggested wolf pack* approach.

 

The problem would be finding room on the 40-man roster.

 

The Mariners are in the market for a defensive catcher to back up Mike Zunino so Blake Swihart would not fit the bill. Seattle already has its Brock Holts in Taylor Motter, Andrew Romine and Zach Vincej.

 

* http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/257299736/dipoto-to-focus-on-pitching-during-offseason/

[moonslav59]

The Mariners could toss Brian Johnson, Jalen Beeks and/or Mike Shawaryn on their heap of starters/long relievers who would pitch no more than four innings a game in the suggested wolf pack* approach.

 

The problem would be finding room on the 40-man roster.

 

The Mariners are in the market for a defensive catcher to back up Mike Zunino so Blake Swihart would not fit the bill. Seattle already has its Brock Holts in Taylor Motter, Andrew Romine and Zach Vincej.

 

* http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/257299736/dipoto-to-focus-on-pitching-during-offseason/

 

Any interest in Sandy Leon? Hembree?

[harmony]

Any interest in Sandy Leon? Hembree?

Seattle's Mike Marjama, a 28-year-old catcher who will earn the league minimum next season, is projected to produce about the same as 28-year-old Boston catcher Sandy Leon, who is projected to earn $2.1 million in 2018.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12594&position=C

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C

 

Heath Hembree would be another cost-controlled arm in the Seattle bullpen:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Behindenemylines]

They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.

 

I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.

 

I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.

 

Chavis is the top hitter in the system right now and if the Sox have to trade to get their power bat he will be included.

[sk7326]

One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax.

 

It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.

 

I know - John Henry might have to settle for eating tunafish straight out of the can because of the impact.

[moonslav59]

I know - John Henry might have to settle for eating tunafish straight out of the can because of the impact.

 

Until he demonstrates he's willing to allow the Sox to become the Dodgers East, I'm going on the assumption there's a priority to keep the budget near the luxury limit most of the time.

 

We've never had an opening day roster with a budget over $200M.

 

We will likely break that streak in 2018, but I'm not sure we'll be over the luxury limit every year from here on out.

[moonslav59]

Seattle's Mike Marjama, a 28-year-old catcher who will earn the league minimum next season, is projected to produce about the same as 28-year-old Boston catcher Sandy Leon, who is projected to earn $2.1 million in 2018.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12594&position=C

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C

 

Heath Hembree would be another cost-controlled arm in the Seattle bullpen:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

You said you were looking for a defensive catcher.

[harmony]

You said you were looking for a defensive catcher.

I should not have written that because I am unsure what, if anything, the Mariners want after Mike Zunino, their 26-year-old first-string catcher, posted 3.6 fWAR this year (and spent just enough time in the minors to give Seattle an additional year of team control).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13265&position=C

 

At any rate, I doubt the Mariners are interested in Blake Swihart, whose early 2018 projection is not encouraging:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Seattle's presumptive backup catcher is Mike Marjama:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/8/14/16116578/meet-mike-marjama-new-mariner-catcher-prospect-andy-mckay

[harmony]

MassLive columnist Christopher Smith provides a detailed breakdown of the Red Sox budget for 2018, including each player's projected salary and payroll impact:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_40-man_roster_c.html#incart_river_index

[moonslav59]

MassLive columnist Christopher Smith provides a detailed breakdown of the Red Sox budget for 2018, including each player's projected salary and payroll impact:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_40-man_roster_c.html#incart_river_index

 

The numbers look right to me. We are estimated to come in at $190M before any signings or trades or DFAs.

 

The key numbers:

 

$7M to the luxury tax level.

$27M to the second phase of the tax.

$47M to the third phase of the tax.situation.

 

I think the real cut off point is $46M as a one year push. Now, if we sign a bunch of guys for over one year deals, we may be looking at the second year penalty phase kicking in, unless we let guys like Kimbrel and Pom bolt without replacing them in kind.

 

All the big name signings will be for more than one year, so I do think we'd prefer to not get too close to the third phase.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Can I say it now, or would I be jinxing things?

 

We just might be getting....

 

Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!

[cp176]

Wouldn't it just be so much easier to sign Matinez? Get your hitter and still save your save chips.

[Nick]

I would love to see either one in Fenway.

 

We need power bats.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton is younger and the AAV will likely be similar between the two. If you can get Stanton without hurting your team, you do it. If not, you sign JD

[cp176]

I would not give up any player who could or is helping us currently if I could sign martinez for just $. If I had to trade someone in that current outfield (JBJ) in order to make room for either Stanton or Martinez, I would sign Martinez and then make a trade for someone else who could helps us somewhere else. Common sense moves not sensational moves and signings. I'm not convinced that Stanton over Martinez is a huge difference in the upgrade department.

[Bellhorn04]

Stanton is younger and a better fielder. But I'll take either one.

[OH FOY]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2743647-giancarlo-stanton-trade-rumors-cardinals-red-sox-giants-phillies-interested

 

Let the auction begin. Interesting comments on the bottom.

Edited November 11, 2017 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

Stanton is younger and a better fielder. But I'll take either one.

 

This I know but I'm still not sold on it being enough of an upgrade to warrant trading away quality as well as taking on the contract. Martinez sounds like an awesome offensive upgrade as well and we still get to trade or not for immediate upgrades. Tell me why this doesn't make sense? I like Stanton as well but I just think that there is some common sense that gets factored in here as well.

[Bellhorn04]

This I know but I'm still not sold on it being enough of an upgrade to warrant trading away quality as well as taking on the contract. Martinez sounds like an awesome offensive upgrade as well and we still get to trade or not for immediate upgrades. Tell me why this doesn't make sense? I like Stanton as well but I just think that there is some common sense that gets factored in here as well.

 

Oh, I hear you. I guess my attitude is, we can't just assume we'll get one of them, and we should be happy to get either.

 

As we know, Scotty Boras likes to hold big splashy auctions and drag them out as long as possible. Remember Teixeira? Didn't sign until Christmas Eve or something like that.

 

So it kind of makes sense to take our best shot at Stanton first. If it doesn't work move on to Martinez.

[OH FOY]

When I see 2 teams who have history in Baseball, Red Sox, and Cards, get ready to give more than you wanted and pay more on contract for Stanton. Almost like the Yanks and Sox.

I was Jeter I would play both of these teams against each other. He might want to get rid of money, but he could also get a good return too.

[OH FOY]

He wants to go to a contender, and a Coast Team, (preferably West Coast), I look at this that the Stars are lining up for a Trade to the Sox, now it's up to Dombrowski not to screw this up.

[oldtimer]

Oh, I hear you. I guess my attitude is, we can't just assume we'll get one of them, and we should be happy to get either.

 

As we know, Scotty Boras likes to hold big splashy auctions and drag them out as long as possible. Remember Teixeira? Didn't sign until Christmas Eve or something like that.

 

So it kind of makes sense to take our best shot at Stanton first. If it doesn't work move on to Martinez.

 

Teixeira signed a long term contract with the Yankees and became a drag toward the end. I am glad we didn't get him. Fair comparison and might be an omen of what we would get with a big time trade or free agent if we go in for a long term deal.

[moonslav59]

Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Guardians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.

[OH FOY]

Teixeira was a failure, he won 1 World Championship, too much money for only 1.

[moonslav59]

Wouldn't it just be so much easier to sign Matinez? Get your hitter and still save your save chips.

 

In theory, yes, but...

 

1) Some think it will not take many "chips" to get him, if the team takes on all the contract.

 

2) Signing JD will affect the international pool money and will lower our top draft pick.

 

3) Stanton is younger and has better numbers over a longer sample size than JD.

 

4) There is a less chance of Stanton bombing out than JD, IMO.

 

That being said, I'm fine with either one. Both have their downsides. Both have tremendous upsides.

 

My third choice is Santana.

[OH FOY]

Santana will be 32 on April 8th. Hosmer 29 on Oct. 24.

Personally I don't want any FA's this year with QO's, when next year, your going to have better ones coming out. Harper, Machado, Donaldson.

I still see more bang for your buck this year, not to get FA's with QO's. Starting with Nunez. You got to start thinking of the future, with a depleted Farm. You cant keep going year after year losing Picks and International pool money. You become the Old Yankees. Even they don't do that anymore.

That's me though.

Edited November 11, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Santana will be 32 on April 8th. Hosmer 29 on Oct. 24.

Personally I don't want any FA's this year with QO's, when next year, your going to have better ones coming out. Harper, Machado, Donaldson.

I still see more bang for your buck this year, not to get FA's with QO's. Starting with Nunez. You got to start thinking of the future, with a depleted Farm. You cant keep going year after year losing Picks and International pool money. You become the Old Yankees. Even they don't do that anymore.

That's me though.

 

You don't lose draft picks when signing QO free agents. You lose pool money and your pick might go down 10 picks depending on your spending situation.

 

We'd go from maybe pick number 25 to 35.

 

The pool money hurts, as this is where we've done well recently.

[harmony]

You don't lose draft picks when signing QO free agents. You lose pool money and your pick might go down 10 picks depending on your spending situation.

 

We'd go from maybe pick number 25 to 35.

 

The pool money hurts, as this is where we've done well recently.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, if the Red Sox sign a free agent who declined a qualifying offer the Sox would lose their second-highest draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500,000:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/which-draft-picks-each-team-would-lose-by-signing-a-qualified-free-agent.html

 

The teams that lose qualifying-offer free agents get compensation:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/examining-draft-pick-compensation-for-the-6-teams-that-could-lose-qualified-free-agents.html

Edited November 11, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Singing to the choir...

 

(MLBTR)

 

Why the Red Sox shouldn’t sign Eric Hosmer.

 

Eric Hosmer is a good player that would make the Red Sox better. He’s an old-fashioned first baseman who hits the ball to all fields for a good average, hits doubles more than homers and fields the position reasonably well, depending on which defensive metric you trust most.

 

But he’s an imperfect fit for this Red Sox lineup and organization, and as he is coming off a career season is liable to make more than he’s worth this winter, especially considering the draft-pick compensation tied to him with the qualifying offer.

 

Boston’s biggest need in the lineup isn’t just for a power hitter; it’s for a right-handed power hitter. Hosmer fits neither of those designations.

 

If we sketch out not just the 2018 Red Sox batting order but into 2019 and 2020 as well, Boston’s middle of the order is likely to involve Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. That’s two lefties and one righty, so in an ideal world, you’re getting another righty to complement that group. Also, Fenway Park is easier for a righty to exploit for power.

 

Hosmer’s 25 home runs this past season represent a career high. He’s likely to hit for less power than guys like Betts, Devers and Benintendi to begin with. He’s also the type of player whose power seems most tied to the composition of the baseball. Before baseball’s home run boom started at the 2015 All-Star break, Hosmer had never even hit 20 homers in a season; he had homered once every 40.9 plate appearances. Since then, he’s homered once every 25.4 plate appearances. If the ball is altered back to where it was a few years ago, his power is likely to regress.

 

It’s tempting to attribute Hosmer’s low power numbers to Kauffman Stadium and suggest that he’d be due for more homers with 81 games at Fenway Park. However, he’s barely hit more homers on the road than at home in his career (67 to 60) and his slugging percentage has been higher in Kansas City despite a better batting average on the road. And Fenway isn’t exactly a bandbox to straightaway right and right-center.

 

Signing Hosmer would lock the Red Sox into him at first base for the foreseeable future, closing off one of the simplest avenues to adding a legitimate power bat. It would also close off a possible move across the diamond for Devers, should Boston ever need to consider one. And it would limit the paths to the majors for Sam Travis and especially Michael Chavis. The presence of those prospects shouldn’t deter the Red Sox from making a big move, as it seemed to last year with Edwin Encarnacion. But it should be a factor in the decision-making.

 

 

In general, Hosmer has some of the same warning signs to me that Pablo Sandoval had. He’s a nice player whose reputation exceeds his actual production because he’s been good on the postseason stage. He’s not the type of player who should hit in the middle of a good Boston order, nor one who should be given a long-term deal averaging close to $25 million per season.