A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Slasher9]

New manager = offense out of our current crop.

Add Stanton. He can play firstbase.

[Slasher9]

I mostly want to add a #2 type starter because I'm not confident in Price's ability to stay healthy.

 

That said, if he can stay healthy, I think it was huge for him the way he pitched in the playoffs and ended his season. IMO, he has the fans back on his side, which is nothing to take lightly.

 

Price proved a lot to me this last few weeks. I will layoff him

[moonslav59]

If we are truly going to look to platoon HRam, and I'm only suggesting it, here's a look at 1Bmen vs RHPs:

 

2017:

.938 Hosmer (but he will want multiple years)

.905 Morrison

.900 Alonso

.869 Reynolds

.867 Duda

.866 Abreu (not a FA and not a platoon)

.844 Santana (probably will not take a 1 yr deal)

.784 Moreland

 

Last 4 Years:

.875 Abreu

.861 Duda

.855 Lind

.845 Hosmer

 

.794 Reynolds

.788 Morrison

.775 HRam

.772 Moreland

.771 Alonso

 

 

FYI- 4 Years vs LHPs:

.909 Abreu

 

.850 Valencia

.849 HRam

 

.785 Santana

 

.708 Hosmer (don't sign a platoon guy to FT money)

.697 Reynolds

.691 Moreland

.689 Morrison

.672 Duda

.647 Alonso

[moonslav59]

An .850 OPS at 1b with a Duda-Hram platoon and 40+ HRs from JD at DH would go a long way towards boosting our offense and saving us $22M in 2019.

 

Add Devers for a full year at 3B and maybe Nunez for a full year, and the chances that our other returning players will not all decline again, and maybe we could be top 5 in offense again.

[moonslav59]

2016: Price

2017: Sale

2018: Stanton

2019: Machado

 

2019

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Stanton DH

4. Machado 3B

5. Devers 1B

6. Beni LF

7. Pedey-Nunez 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

[illinoisredsox]

New manager = offense out of our current crop.

Add Stanton. He can play firstbase.

 

Theoretically. Most thought Hanley could play left field.

[moonslav59]

Theoretically. Most thought Hanley could play left field.

 

I thought we should have put him at 3B and signed a pitcher, instead of Pablo.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought we should have put him at 3B and signed a pitcher, instead of Pablo.

 

That was just a bad day moon.

[mvp 78]

Theoretically. Most thought Hanley could play left field.

 

Easier to move a guy from OF to 1B than to move a SS/3B to OF. Most of the OF guys at least played IF in high school.

[Nick]

Regardless of medical decisions this winter, Pedey will no longer be available for full season going foward.

 

I will absolutely puke if Holt returns.

[mvp 78]

Regardless of medical decisions this winter, Pedey will no longer be available for full season going foward.

 

I will absolutely puke if Holt returns.

 

Probably not.

 

Definitely projectile vomiting if he shows up to ST.

[illinoisredsox]

Regardless of medical decisions this winter, Pedey will no longer be available for full season going foward.

 

I will absolutely puke if Holt returns.

 

It would not shock me either way on Holt. I think a lot of his issues this season related to the vertigo and he did show some signs of life near the end of the season (September numbers were .256/.375/.708 in 24 games vs. .178/.275/.482 in 40 games before that). The September numbers to me are perfectly acceptable for a backup infielder plus he's relatively cheap and he can at least passably fill in in the outfield. That's a valuable trait in these days of 12 man pitching staffs.

 

Nunez provides much better offense and can handle infield duties, but after watching his adventures on pop-ups, I don't want him anywhere near the outfield. However, nobody knows how bad his knee is; it sure didn't look good.

 

Hernandez is a big question mark. Lin and Marrero are good infield defensive players but their minor league numbers show no offense.

 

Stay or go, Holt is hardly the main concern of the club right now. If he is, the Sox are in really good shape.

[mvp 78]

Stay or go, Holt is hardly the main concern of the club right now. If he is, the Sox are in really good shape.

 

The Sox are in good shape. I think they just need to get one big bat (JD) and figure out how to manage SP innings next year.

[Spudboy]

I thought we should have put him at 3B and signed a pitcher, instead of Pablo.

 

Yup.

[devildavid]

New manager = offense out of our current crop.

Add Stanton. He can play firstbase.

 

Why will our current crop hit better for a new manager?

 

Adding Stanton improves the offense and has nothing to do with who manages.

[Maxbialystock]

2016: Price

2017: Sale

2018: Stanton

2019: Machado

 

2019

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Stanton DH

4. Machado 3B

5. Devers 1B

6. Beni LF

7. Pedey-Nunez 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

 

Really? That lineup looks awfully good to me, but at what cost?

[mvp 78]

Really? That lineup looks awfully good to me, but at what cost?

 

Cost savings by not doing what moon proposed for 2B which looks like a huge payroll suck to me.

[Maxbialystock]

Yup.

 

I didn't think that at the time because i was ignorant, but it would have made a lot more sense. But, you know, other GM's have goofed as badly as Cherington on Pablo--see Ellsbury and the NYY and Crawford with the Dodgers. Actually, Yankees fans have kind of warmed to Ellsbury this year despite that salary and having to DH.

[oldtimer]

2016: Price

2017: Sale

2018: Stanton

2019: Machado

 

2019

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Stanton DH

4. Machado 3B

5. Devers 1B

6. Beni LF

7. Pedey-Nunez 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

 

I think the move of Devers would open up the possibility of a permanent 3rd baseman. Machado would fit although there will be a lot of competition. Meanwhile we could temporize with a good infielder to take short or third for a season and perhaps move to 2nd after that. I am not convinced that Nunez will be able to come back from his injury, so we should look at alternatives as well.

 

I also think JBJ could be replaced. Bryce Harper will be expensive and is rumored to be heading to the Yankees. I could see him as our right fielder with Betts in center. Talk about spending money, these are break the bank expensive.

[oldtimer]

It would not shock me either way on Holt. I think a lot of his issues this season related to the vertigo and he did show some signs of life near the end of the season (September numbers were .256/.375/.708 in 24 games vs. .178/.275/.482 in 40 games before that). The September numbers to me are perfectly acceptable for a backup infielder plus he's relatively cheap and he can at least passably fill in in the outfield. That's a valuable trait in these days of 12 man pitching staffs.

 

Nunez provides much better offense and can handle infield duties, but after watching his adventures on pop-ups, I don't want him anywhere near the outfield. However, nobody knows how bad his knee is; it sure didn't look good.

 

Hernandez is a big question mark. Lin and Marrero are good infield defensive players but their minor league numbers show no offense.

 

Stay or go, Holt is hardly the main concern of the club right now. If he is, the Sox are in really good shape.

 

I would start over with our utility players. Young, Holt and Davis can move along and we can replace them with as good from our existing team and minor leagues. Hernandez, Swihart, Lin and Marrero are a few. All are relatively low cost. Possibly and older player with good hitting skills for a one year contract might help as a pinch hitter and infrequent field player.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't think that at the time because i was ignorant, but it would have made a lot more sense. But, you know, other GM's have goofed as badly as Cherington on Pablo--see Ellsbury and the NYY and Crawford with the Dodgers. Actually, Yankees fans have kind of warmed to Ellsbury this year despite that salary and having to DH.

 

Pablo and Hanley were signed on the same day. Total package of 41 million per year.

 

Ellsbury is playing very little in the ALDS...he's a part-timer now.

[mvp 78]

I think the move of Devers would open up the possibility of a permanent 3rd baseman. Machado would fit although there will be a lot of competition. Meanwhile we could temporize with a good infielder to take short or third for a season and perhaps move to 2nd after that. I am not convinced that Nunez will be able to come back from his injury, so we should look at alternatives as well.

 

I also think JBJ could be replaced. Bryce Harper will be expensive and is rumored to be heading to the Yankees. I could see him as our right fielder with Betts in center. Talk about spending money, these are break the bank expensive.

 

Good point and I just learned a new word.

[Slasher9]

Why will our current crop hit better for a new manager?

 

Adding Stanton improves the offense and has nothing to do with who manages.

 

i think the right manager can have a big affect on our youngsters and the production we can get out of them. having Papi around in '16 was a big help to the kids. we see what happened without him this season. with the right manager i can see a big rebound in offensive numbers from the B's....IMO.

[devildavid]

i think the right manager can have a big affect on our youngsters and the production we can get out of them. having Papi around in '16 was a big help to the kids. we see what happened without him this season. with the right manager i can see a big rebound in offensive numbers from the B's....IMO.

 

Maybe so. They all seemed to under perform this season. Still not sure what their potential is and if they can maintain it. All of them had bad cold stretches through the season. The league is adjusting to them and maybe this year was a period of adjustment for them. I hope they learned something and can respond positively next year.

[BstHcpr]

Pedroia

Benintendi

Betts

Morrison

Devers

Ramirez

Bogaerts

Vazquez

Bradley

 

Leon

Travis

Nunez

Kendrick

 

Sale

Price

Pomeranz

Rodriguez

Porcello

 

Kimbrel

Thornburg

Smith

Barnes

Hembree

Ross

Maddox

Kelly

 

Probably something like that. Don't expect a major trade with the thin farm system, and payroll constraints

Edited October 11, 2017 by BstHcpr

[moonslav59]

Really? That lineup looks awfully good to me, but at what cost?

 

Under the second tier penalty limit, if that's all we do.

[moonslav59]

Final OPS numbers of Sox players (with the Sox only)...

 

400+ PAs, unless listed:

 

.892 Nunez (173)-- .801 overall

 

.819 Devers (240)-- 30 HRs in Sox system this year

.803 Betts -- the only full season guy over .800

.776 Beni --nice first full season on offense

.776 Moreland-- did better than I expected on offense, but worse on D

.760 Pedey-- injuries did him in in the end

.750 HRam-- 2nd on team in HRs

.746 Bogey-- late surge kept him form worse

.735 Vaz (345)-- should get more PAs next year

.726 JBJ -- two long slumps surrounding a short hot streak (again)

.709 Young (276)-- big drop from 2016

 

.644 Leon (301)-- Sal'es personal caddy

 

.593 Marrero (188)-- may be DFA'd for a rule 5 guy

.558 Rutledge-- should be let go

.548 Holt (164)-- maybe his last year with the Sox

 

OPS Against (150 + PAs against unless noted):

 

.444 Kimbrel

.485 Maddox (67)

 

.573 Kelly

.603 Sale

 

.652 Price

.655 Barnes

.660 Scott (141)

.672 Abad

 

.707 Velazquez (96)

.712 Pomeranz

.726 Fister

.736 ERod

 

.782 Workman

.803 Hembree

.808 Boyer

.817 Johnson (113)

.826 Porcello

.841 Taylor (80)

 

1.148 Wright (114)

 

 

Edited October 11, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTR's TOP Free Agent Ranking

 

1. Yu Darvish: Interesting, but I doubt we go hard for a number one starter 3 years in a row.

 

2. JD Martinez: Seems like the best fit for Boston, but these DH types almost always end up biting us in the ass. He would solve the 4th OF'er slot at the same time as the clean-up hitter vacancy. MLBTR says he might get 6 years--Yikes!

 

3. Jake Arrieta: Another interesting thought. See #1.

 

4. Eric Hosmer: I'll die a thousand deaths, if we sign this guy to 3+ years.

 

5. Masahiro Tanaka: See #1.

 

6. Justin Upton: I suppose we could sign him, if JD goes elsewhere, but I'd rather have JD or Moose.

 

7. Mike Moustakas: Fills the clean-up slot while improving our 3B defense. Force a possible premature Devers to 1B move. He's my second choice behind JD.

 

8. Lorenzo Cain: I guess, if we traded Beni & JBJ for Stanton...

 

9. Wade Davis: MLBTR says $62M/4: no thanks.

 

10. Greg Holland: Hmmm...

 

Others: Cueto, if he opts out, Morrison, Lance Lynn and Carlos Santana.

 

 

[Nick]

Why do all of you think small? It's not your money. I will spend $125 next year to watch Red Sox play on MLB Network.

 

My guess is that Sox can spend $250M and my subscription fee will remain the same. So what if it goes up by $25 in 2019.

 

If we want to win, we need impact power bat. Quit pussyfooting around.

[moonslav59]

Why do all of you think small? It's not your money. I will spend $125 next year to watch Red Sox play on MLB Network.

 

My guess is that Sox can spend $250M and my subscription fee will remain the same. So what if it goes up by $25 in 2019.

 

If we want to win, we need impact power bat. Quit pussyfooting around.

 

Who me?

 

My minimum plan is signing JD, Duda and Nunez.

 

I realize that may not be enough, and I'm open to kicking the tires on Stanton, but I doubt Henry wants to us to become Dodgers East.