2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

Santana is a true switch hitter- equally good vs both hands.

 

He won't get mega years or mega bucks, so he seems like the safest choice. Signing him might also leave enough money for one more significant signing or acquisition or two mediocre ones.

 

Maybe...

 

Santana

2 from: Cobb, Dyson or Shaw (or the like)

 

As Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas become too expensive for many teams the demand (and cost) for Carlos Santana should go up.

 

I suspect Santana will top the three years and $45 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

A player such as Santana who most agree is undervalued is no longer undervalued.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

 

Three years ago Victor Martinez, another switch-hitting converted catcher, got four years and $68 million just shy of his 36th birthday after posting 14.4 fWAR the five previous seasons. Santana, who turns 32 in April, has posted 15.0 fWAR over the past five years.

[notin]

As Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas become too expensive for many teams the demand (and cost) for Carlos Santana should go up.

 

I suspect Santana will top the three years and $45 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

A player such as Santana who most agree is undervalued is no longer undervalued.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

 

Three years ago Victor Martinez, another switch-hitting converted catcher, got four years and $68 million just shy of his 36th birthday after posting 14.4 fWAR the five previous seasons. Santana, who turns 32 in April, has posted 15.0 fWAR over the past five years.

 

The MLBTR prediction for Santan did seem light, although his competition also includes Logan Morrison (3.6 fWAR in the past 3 years), Yonder Alonso (3.0 fWAR the past 3 years), Jay Bruce (3.8 fWAR the past three years) and Lucas Duda (4.2 fWAR the past 3 years) which does leave his suitors with alternatives.

 

I still think he gets 5 years, and is a good move for that span.

 

Then again, how many years did Edwin Encarnacion (12.0 fWAR over 3 years prior to free agency) get?

[Larry Cook]

Someone is going to over spend for Santana, normally i’d say that is desperate dave’s M.O., but I think desperate Dave is putting all his chips on Martinez.

 

Ps: I still think desperate Dave should be going all in on ohtani instead.

[moonslav59]

Someone is going to over spend for Santana, normally i’d say that is desperate dave’s M.O., but I think desperate Dave is putting all his chips on Martinez.

 

Ps: I still think desperate Dave should be going all in on ohtani instead.

 

All in means a very limited offer. Other teams have more to offer.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD has an interview yesterday that made it sound less like he’s putting his hat in the ring for Stanton, Hosmer, or Martinez and more that he’d be looking to add smaller pieces.

[Bellhorn04]

JD Martinez' asking price is $210mill over 7 years.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Boras has been out of the limelight for a while - he wants to remind everyone he's still the king of the ******* agents.

[SoxnCycles]

Unless Price returns to form next year.

 

Hosmer is the unexciting option for people who don't believe in the cliff. If you like Martinez, his peak years will be better than Hosmer, but he will be into decline by the time the Sox key players are all ready for free agency. Hosmer will be the better player 3 to 4 years down the line. Martinez better immediately, but not for as long...

 

Does anyone really expect his elbow to hold up for an entire season?

[SoxnCycles]

The real downside to Hosmer is how many times he gets auto-corrected to "Hoser"

 

Stupid Canadian phones...

[Bellhorn04]

Does anyone really expect his elbow to hold up for an entire season?

 

It's the offseason man, it's supposed to be a time of optimism.

 

Besides, don't you think our crack medical team knows what it's doing?

[SoxnCycles]

It's the offseason man, it's supposed to be a time of optimism.

 

Besides, don't you think our crack medical team knows what it's doing?

 

You're right, I'm sure the medical staff and Mr "My Elbow Heals Itself" have it all under control.

[mvp 78]

When Price met with Andrews and Neal ElAttrache on Thursday, they both expressed shock at the relatively strong state of the elbow.

 

"[Andrews and ElAttrache] expected it to be a lot worse than what it was," Price said. "That was both of them. They said it multiple times; we expected this to be a lot worse than what it really is.”

 

Price said that the two experts' explanation for the improvement was simply that his elbow is special.

 

“They were like, ‘Your elbow is extremely unique. It’s found a way to kind of heal itself,'" Price said. "It’s pretty neat, bionic elbow,”

 

Perhaps it is that bionic elbow that allowed Price to lead baseball in innings pitched last year.

 

It is such a great elbow. Bigly elbow.

[harmony]

The MLBTR prediction for Santan did seem light, although his competition also includes Logan Morrison (3.6 fWAR in the past 3 years), Yonder Alonso (3.0 fWAR the past 3 years), Jay Bruce (3.8 fWAR the past three years) and Lucas Duda (4.2 fWAR the past 3 years) which does leave his suitors with alternatives.

 

I still think he gets 5 years, and is a good move for that span.

 

Then again, how many years did Edwin Encarnacion (12.0 fWAR over 3 years prior to free agency) get?

For another comp, here are Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez (at the time Martinez signed a four-year, $50 million contract with Detroit in November 2010 a month before his 32nd birthday):

 

CS 1116 G, 4782 PA, .249/.365/.445/.810, OPS+ 121

VM 1004 G, 4224 PA, .300/.369/.469/.838, OPS+ 121

 

Santana, who turns 32 in April, and Martinez are switch-hitters who came up as catchers with the Cleveland Guardians before converting to first basemen/designated hitters.

 

In November 2014 Martinez signed a four-year, $68 million extension with the Tigers.

 

Santana this year ranked seventh among first basemen in the Fielding Bible voting, two slots behind Mitch Moreland:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

[Nick]

$210M/7 yrs for mediocre defensive player? I'm not sure I'm ready to pay $30M per year for DH. Ugh.

[moonslav59]

When Price met with Andrews and Neal ElAttrache on Thursday, they both expressed shock at the relatively strong state of the elbow.

 

"[Andrews and ElAttrache] expected it to be a lot worse than what it was," Price said. "That was both of them. They said it multiple times; we expected this to be a lot worse than what it really is.”

 

Price said that the two experts' explanation for the improvement was simply that his elbow is special.

 

“They were like, ‘Your elbow is extremely unique. It’s found a way to kind of heal itself,'" Price said. "It’s pretty neat, bionic elbow,”

 

Perhaps it is that bionic elbow that allowed Price to lead baseball in innings pitched last year.

 

It is such a great elbow. Bigly elbow.

 

I hope he can put together a special season.

[moonslav59]

$210M/7 yrs for mediocre defensive player? I'm not sure I'm ready to pay $30M per year for DH. Ugh.

 

Yes. Even Papi didn't make half of that.

[moonslav59]

For another comp, here are Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez (at the time Martinez signed a four-year, $50 million contract with Detroit in November 2010 a month before his 32nd birthday):

 

CS 1116 G, 4782 PA, .249/.365/.445/.810, OPS+ 121

VM 1004 G, 4224 PA, .300/.369/.469/.838, OPS+ 121

 

Santana, who turns 32 in April, and Martinez are switch-hitters who came up as catchers with the Cleveland Guardians before converting to first basemen/designated hitters.

 

In November 2014 Martinez signed a four-year, $68 million extension with the Tigers.

 

Santana this year ranked seventh among first basemen in the Fielding Bible voting, two slots behind Mitch Moreland:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

More and more, I'm looking to Santana as the "logical choice". I realize he may end up with 4 years, but that's better than Hosmer at 5-6.

 

I can see Santana getting $64M/4. I'd rather do that than $189M/7 for JD.

 

[sk7326]

DD has an interview yesterday that made it sound less like he’s putting his hat in the ring for Stanton, Hosmer, or Martinez and more that he’d be looking to add smaller pieces.

 

It makes sense. I am not sure they have enough to win a bidding war for Stanton - depends on the value their ability to simply absorb the contract has to the Marlins. (I don't think the Marlins are just going to dump Stanton, but being clear of the contract in its entirety is at least somewhat helpful)

 

Carlos Santana is the high floor option. His age and precedent seem to indicate that the market might not give him more than 3 years when things shake down - and I think he can hold his value for 2-3 years. Good on-base skills, decent 1st baseman, good not great power.

 

Martinez profiles as the sort of guy who can go down hill very quickly - shaky athlete, no defensive value at all. But gosh he can hit.

 

Hosmer is the high ceiling risky bet. Youngest of the major FAs, had a terrific season last year - but it is not typical of his career to date which has been very inconsistent. That said, the light suddenly coming on for a 27 year old is hardly unprecedented.

[sk7326]

More and more, I'm looking to Santana as the "logical choice". I realize he may end up with 4 years, but that's better than Hosmer at 5-6.

 

I can see Santana getting $64M/4. I'd rather do that than $189M/7 for JD.

 

 

I think Santana might be the one to get squeezed Encarnacion-style. It could get to 4 years, but it might end up being 3. Santana is the high floor option of the two. Hosmer you are making a bet that the light came on for a 27 year old who has always been a darling of the scouting/prospect community. It's a risk - but a defensible one.

[moonslav59]

I think Santana might be the one to get squeezed Encarnacion-style. It could get to 4 years, but it might end up being 3. Santana is the high floor option of the two. Hosmer you are making a bet that the light came on for a 27 year old who has always been a darling of the scouting/prospect community. It's a risk - but a defensible one.

 

I agree. I think EE was better than Santana, at least on offense.

 

With Morrison, Alonso, Duda and Moreland all out there, maybe teams in need of a 1Bman will overlook the more expensive Santana. (I hope so, because I'd love to get him for $45M/3 or $56M/4.

[harmony]

I think Santana might be the one to get squeezed Encarnacion-style. It could get to 4 years, but it might end up being 3. Santana is the high floor option of the two. Hosmer you are making a bet that the light came on for a 27 year old who has always been a darling of the scouting/prospect community. It's a risk - but a defensible one.

I suspect Carlos Santana's camp has learned from Edwin Encarnacion's failed gamble. Encarnacion reportedly turned down Toronto's early four-year, $80 million offer before signing a three-year, $60 million deal (with a fourth-year option) in late December with the Cleveland Guardians.

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/12/22/edwin-encarnacion-agrees-to-3-year-deal-in-cleveland-reports.html

[mvp 78]

Yes. Even Papi didn't make half of that.

 

He made $15M+ in his last 3 seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

He made $15M+ in his last 3 seasons.

 

moon's math skills are definitely in question these days.

[moonslav59]

He made $15M+ in his last 3 seasons.

 

So, about half then.

 

Way less, if you average it out.

[harmony]

I suspect Carlos Santana's camp has learned from Edwin Encarnacion's failed gamble. Encarnacion reportedly turned down Toronto's early four-year, $80 million offer before signing a three-year, $60 million deal (with a fourth-year option) in late December with the Cleveland Guardians.

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/12/22/edwin-encarnacion-agrees-to-3-year-deal-in-cleveland-reports.html

This week Carlos Santana was named Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for first basemen:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2017/11/cleveland_indians_carlos_santa_18.html

[mvp 78]

So, about half then.

 

Way less, if you average it out.

 

Why would you average it out? It's not like the Sox can give JD Martinez a contract from 2006. Average player salary was 65% higher in 2015 than in 2005.

[Kimmi]

JD Martinez' asking price is $210mill over 7 years. That's a lot of money for a guy who will probably suck in 3 years. Save the cash and give a mega-extension to Betts.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/jd-martinez-rumor-200-million-asking-price.html

 

Carlos Santana looks better by the day...

 

There is no way I would give JD that kind of contract. If you're going to do that, you might as well go the extra step and get Stanton.

 

The Sox will have a lot of competition for Santana, from what I've read.

[Kimmi]

Does anyone really expect his elbow to hold up for an entire season?

 

Based off of how much time he spent on the DL this year, it doesn't seem likely.

 

I am more concerned with our rotation than I am with adding a big bat.

 

That said, it's kind of hard to know whether Dombrowski should be focusing on starting pitching or not. Our rotation could end up being tops in the league, or it could end up being very mediocre.

[moonslav59]

Why would you average it out? It's not like the Sox can give JD Martinez a contract from 2006. Average player salary was 65% higher in 2015 than in 2005.

 

It's about half per season.

 

If you take Papi's last 6 or 7 years or whateber JD ends up getting, it's under half.

 

Man, you guys are as nutty as I am on semantics.

 

[MADSTORK]

there is nothing similar about the Pujols and Stanton deals.

 

Ask yourself that ? A few years into the deal when the power numbers decline and your paying 30 million for a DH after giving up a front line player or Groome.

A Stanton deal has the 80’s and early 90’s Yankees feel to it. Spend spend spend and lose lose lose.

 

These young Sox players might benefit with a new Hitting Coach whose approach is said to be driving the ball out of the park..

Buy a free agent !

[moonslav59]

Ask yourself that ? A few years into the deal when the power numbers decline and your paying 30 million for a DH after giving up a front line player or Groome.

A Stanton deal has the 80’s and early 90’s Yankees feel to it. Spend spend spend and lose lose lose.

 

These young Sox players might benefit with a new Hitting Coach whose approach is said to be driving the ball out of the park..

Buy a free agent !

 

I share the concern, but 37 is not really that old. 8 years up to age 35 could be super productive. Even 36 to 37 might still end up being worth close to $30M,

if prices keep rising anywhere near its current rate.

 

"Buy a free agent!" If it's JD, almost all his years will be at 34 or over.

Edited November 16, 2017 by moonslav59