2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[notin]

42 HRs would have helped given the team's advanced on-base skills. Could a Stanton-Betts-Benintendi OF be an improvement total packagewise over Benintendi-Bradley-Betts? Sure.

 

I would agree. It could be. I hate giving up Bradley, however.

 

I don't think a Martinez-Betts-Benintendi OF is necessarily an improvement. ..

[cp176]

I would agree. It could be. I hate giving up Bradley, however.

 

I don't think a Martinez-Betts-Benintendi OF is necessarily an improvement. ..

 

Depending on what is decided about JBJ, the team overall could see a significant improvement with Martinez out there if you get the return you would expect for JBJ.

[sk7326]

I would agree. It could be. I hate giving up Bradley, however.

 

I don't think a Martinez-Betts-Benintendi OF is necessarily an improvement. ..

 

oh if Martinez is doing anything but DHing (maybe 1B) it is a bad idea

[cp176]

oh if Martinez is doing anything but DHing (maybe 1B) it is a bad idea

 

probably right

[moonslav59]

Jon Morosi‏ @jonmorosi

#SFGiants have interest in trading for Jackie Bradley Jr., among many outfield options they are currently considering, source says. @MLBNetwork @MLB

 

We should ask ourselves why so many quality organizations always ask for JBJ.

[Bellhorn04]

We should ask ourselves why so many quality organizations always ask for JBJ.

 

It's not really a mystery - an elite defender with 2 .800 OPS seasons on his resume, and 3 years of control left.

[moonslav59]

We could trade for Stanton AND keep JBJ.

 

Word is HRam can play 1B next year.

 

Stanton can DH and be the 4th OF'er, when needed (12-20 games with no OF injuries). HRam can DH those 12-20 games, thereby giving him some rest. Use Travis or Swihart at 1B when HRam DHs or sign someone like Duda for a 1 year cheap deal.

[moonslav59]

It's not really a mystery - an elite defender with 2 .800 OPS seasons on his resume, and 3 years of control left.

 

Agreed. JBJ has always been one of my favorite Sox players.

[dgalehouse]

JBJ has been unfairly maligned by some , and quite overrated by some others. Basically he is what he is , somewhere in the middle. I doubt his trade value is as high as some might think. An outfield of Benintendi in left , Betts in center and Stanton in right would be a definite improvement. Personally , if the Sox are looking to make a blockbuster deal, I would like to see what it would take to get Trout instead of Stanton. But I think a trade partner for either of these would be looking for Benintendi and Devers rather than JBJ. In the end , we might be better off going the free agent route for now. This team needs some improvement power wise , but not necessarily a major overhaul.

[notin]

JBJ has been unfairly maligned by some , and quite overrated by some others. Basically he is what he is , somewhere in the middle. I doubt his trade value is as high as some might think. An outfield of Benintendi in left , Betts in center and Stanton in right would be a definite improvement. Personally , if the Sox are looking to make a blockbuster deal, I would like to see what it would take to get Trout instead of Stanton. But I think a trade partner for either of these would be looking for Benintendi and Devers rather than JBJ. In the end , we might be better off going the free agent route for now. This team needs some improvement power wise , but not necessarily a major overhaul.

 

Fangraphs rated JBJ #46 in terms of trade value, just behind Bogaerts.

[sk7326]

We should ask ourselves why so many quality organizations always ask for JBJ.

 

Because he is good - and because cost controlled starters are innately valuable

[moonslav59]

Yeah, no major overhaul, but go after Trout.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs rated JBJ #46 in terms of trade value, just behind Bogaerts.

 

Pretty damn valuable!

[notin]

oh if Martinez is doing anything but DHing (maybe 1B) it is a bad idea

 

I'm a bit hesitant to call 1b a good idea for Martinez. ..

[moonslav59]

Apparently, HRam will be cleared to play 1B next year. Signing JD or trading for Stanton allows them to DH FT, if needed, and to also fill the 4th OF'er opening.

[dgalehouse]

Yeah, no major overhaul, but go after Trout.

 

Apparently you missed the point I was making that we should go the free agent route and skip the major overhaul. But that's okay. I know you tend to get carried away with supporting your viewpoint. Obviously , any trade for a Stanton or Trout would be a major move compared to signing Martinez . As for JBJ , other teams may inquire about him , but what are they willing to give up ? My guess is that it would be nothing special. Certainly not what could be called an impact player.

[a700hitter]

• The Red Sox are hiring Craig Bjornson as their bullpen coach, according to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. He’ll take over for Dana Levangie, whom the team promoted to pitching coach this week. Bjornson was with the Astros from 2012-17 and spent some of that time as their bullpen coach. He was on the same staff last season as new Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the Astros’ bench coach during their World Series-winning campaign.
  

[moonslav59]

Apparently you missed the point I was making that we should go the free agent route and skip the major overhaul. But that's okay. I know you tend to get carried away with supporting your viewpoint. Obviously , any trade for a Stanton or Trout would be a major move compared to signing Martinez . As for JBJ , other teams may inquire about him , but what are they willing to give up ? My guess is that it would be nothing special. Certainly not what could be called an impact player.

 

I was joking around. I also like the idea of signing JD.

 

I'm not sure what it would take to trade for Stanton, so it's hard to compare which plan is best.

[cp176]

I'll say one thing that doesn't seem to be very popular with some here. I'm very happy that we have DD doing the negotiating for us. I'm really not sure I see a great advantage to a Stanton signing which might cost us something significant as opposed to a Martinez signing which costs just $. We need at least one real power bat in that lineup. Both of these guys provide it. It has 0 to do with power being popular as opposed to trying to infuse some real hit into an otherwise fairly anemic offense. It's a good thing to have lots of little singles hitters particularly when they are hitting but it should not be considered a luxury to have somebody in there with the power to knock a few of our little fellows in.

[moonslav59]

I'll say one thing that doesn't seem to be very popular with some here. I'm very happy that we have DD doing the negotiating for us. I'm really not sure I see a great advantage to a Stanton signing which might cost us something significant as opposed to a Martinez signing which costs just $. We need at least one real power bat in that lineup. Both of these guys provide it. It has 0 to do with power being popular as opposed to trying to infuse some real hit into an otherwise fairly anemic offense. It's a good thing to have lots of little singles hitters particularly when they are hitting but it should not be considered a luxury to have somebody in there with the power to knock a few of our little fellows in.

 

I certainly get your point, but I do see one advantage for Stanton over JD besides the fact that he's better:

 

Assuming JD gets $150M/6...

 

Stanton

Age 28 $25M

Age 29 $25M

Age 30 $25M

Age 31 $25M JD $25M

Age 32 $25M JD $25M

Age 33 $25M JD $25M

Age 34 $25M JD $25M

Age 35 $25M JD $25M

Age 36 $25M JD $25M

Age 37 $25M

 

Now. technically JD turns 31 in August as Stanton turns 29 next November, so the difference is not as great as my chart shows, but even if you move JD up a notch on the chart, we end up with 2 more years of Stanton in prime in exchange for 2 more after prime.

 

I'm glad there are not QO penalties involved with signing JD, and that might be what tips the balance in his favor over Stanton, but until we know what it would take to get Stanton, I find it hard to compare the two options. There's such a wide range of projected returns out there.

 

[Kimmi]

Home runs are overrated, I don't disagree with that.

 

But Stanton's WAR is for real, isn't it?

 

Yes, Stanton's WAR is for real. I could get more on board with people arguing the case for trading for him based off of his WAR than based off of his 49 home runs.

 

Either way though, my concern with him is not what happens to that WAR in the next 5 years, but what will likely happen to that WAR in the 5 years after that. And we have to give up players to boot.

[Kimmi]

Agree, about different seasons, I don't go by WAR. Never have. I cant see 42+ HRS, a difference in only 5-6 wins. You have to go by games played, at the moment of playing. WAR sounds too generalization, and lazy to me.

Reason I'm not a WAR person is that Outs in Baseball produces runs. And that what Baseball is really all about, Runs.

WAR doesn't give me the situation.

Quick situation for me, that would never show up in WAR...

Runner at third and 1st 1 out, tie game....Batter hits it to SS, but busts his ass to 1st and beats it out, Run Scores, win that game by 1 run. Does that show? Its a Fielders Choice, Outs were made. Yet you won.

 

Here's the fabulous thing about WAR. The scenario you described shows up in a player's base running stats, which is part of the calculation of WAR. So yes, it does show.

[moonslav59]

Yes, Stanton's WAR is for real. I could get more on board with people arguing the case for trading for him based off of his WAR than based off of his 49 home runs.

 

Either way though, my concern with him is not what happens to that WAR in the next 5 years, but what will likely happen to that WAR in the 5 years after that. And we have to give up players to boot.

 

It was 59 HRs.

 

Also, his .360 career OBP and .376 2017 OBP would have led the Sox last year.

[moonslav59]

Quick situation for me, that would never show up in WAR...

Runner at third and 1st 1 out, tie game....Batter hits it to SS, but busts his ass to 1st and beats it out, Run Scores, win that game by 1 run. Does that show? Its a Fielders Choice, Outs were made. Yet you won.

 

Doesn't show up in BA, OBP, OPS or many other stats either.

[Kimmi]

Hanley is an example of how bad outfield defense can impact a game/season.

 

While Stanton isn't that bad, is the drop off from Bradley to Stanton a similar magnitude?

 

The idea of moving JBJ out of CF and/or Betts out of RF displeases me greatly. I get the idea that if Beni/Betts/Stanton is an overall improvement over Beni/JBJ/Betts, you do it, but I also like to look at that improvement in terms of value. Is the cost difference of acquiring Stanton over keeping JBJ worth whatever overall improvement we will get? Or might those resources be better used elsewhere?

[Kimmi]

Because he is good - and because cost controlled starters are innately valuable

 

This is a point that seems to be lost on many.

[Kimmi]

It was 59 HRs.

 

Also, his .360 career OBP and .376 2017 OBP would have led the Sox last year.

 

That's how much attention I pay to home runs.

 

As I said about WAR, I would be more on board with trading for Stanton based on OBP than base off of his home runs.

[Spudboy]

• The Red Sox are hiring Craig Bjornson as their bullpen coach, according to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. He’ll take over for Dana Levangie, whom the team promoted to pitching coach this week. Bjornson was with the Astros from 2012-17 and spent some of that time as their bullpen coach. He was on the same staff last season as new Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the Astros’ bench coach during their World Series-winning campaign.
  

 

I few ugly losses and under-performance at the plate and this bunch will be all over the new coaches in 2018.

 

Or, if the Sox come out of the gate scorching hot people here will be saying what a difference good coaching can make.

 

Everybody is full of s***.

[dgalehouse]

That's how much attention I pay to home runs.

 

As I said about WAR, I would be more on board with trading for Stanton based on OBP than base off of his home runs.

Kimmi , There is much value in advanced metrics , but credibility is lost when we hear things like " home runs are overrated " . That is over think. Home runs equal an instant run / runs. And often are the difference in the game. How can that be overrated ? If it is stats that you care about ; home runs greatly enhance OPS and ( I guess ) WAR. If 59 home runs did not get your attention , how many would it take ? This does not mean I am advocating a trade for Stanton if it involved giving up a lot of talent in addition to the money. But a home run is the best possible result for a hitter. Not at all overrated.

[moonslav59]

The idea of moving JBJ out of CF and/or Betts out of RF displeases me greatly. I get the idea that if Beni/Betts/Stanton is an overall improvement over Beni/JBJ/Betts, you do it, but I also like to look at that improvement in terms of value. Is the cost difference of acquiring Stanton over keeping JBJ worth whatever overall improvement we will get? Or might those resources be better used elsewhere?

 

We can get Stanton or JD and still keep our OF intact.