2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Bellhorn04]

There will be nothing comendable about his patience unless he improves this team.

 

I'm with you on that.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and so does JD. The risk with Cobb might be 3-4 years not 5, and we can also sign LoMo or Duda+Nunez with Cobb, so the risk is spread out and for a shorter term.

 

There's risk no matter what you do or don't do. If we fail to sign JD there's the risk we blew a chance to sign one of the best power hitters in baseball over the next 4-5 years.

[moonslav59]

I'm with you on that.

 

I am, too, but there's a zero percent chance he does nothing.

 

He will spend $15-33M this season. ($33M brings us right to the severe penalty phase of the luxury tax.)

[mvp 78]

He plays in KC ....not Fenway park try to atleast look at the bat for Fenway ..You and I will always differ on who he is and what he would be here ....ThankGod someone didn't write Ortiz off.I shook my head when you wrote he's not worth 30 million .....I would love you to explain that to Peter Gammons who has forgot more baseball than anyone here remembers .Now if we can agree on Freddie Freeman .... I'll feel somewhat better .

 

..................................................................Runs HR's Hits 2b's 3b's BB's

Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) 1.026 0.824 1.103 1.156 0.750 0.958

Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 0.926 0.809 0.966 1.078 1.207 0.980

 

A rate of 1.000+ favors the hitter, below favors the pitcher.

 

To think that Hosmer will come to Boston and start mashing for power seems a little silly to me. It makes more sense that he could wind up hitting for a higher average, but it's a tough sell that he starts hitting 30+ HR's. He's very inconsistent from year to year as he has alternated positive and negative OWAR seasons for his whole career. Plus, his glove is kind of s***** and he's not a consistent performer. That's not a guy I want to sign for 7 years.

 

(My first point turned out kinda ugly with the format, but whatever. Sorry all. -mvp)

[mvp 78]

Is the offer fair?

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/2/14/17010840/j-d-martinez-please-sign-with-the-red-sox

 

If you’ve been following the Martinez saga (and let’s be honest, there’s no way you haven’t. This is precisely the 853rd article written about J.D. Martinez since the off-season began), then you probably know that it’s a far cry from the $200 million contract he was reported to have been seeking and even the six year, $150 million contract that MLBTR predicted he would eventually sign.

 

The latest news, that the offer to Martinez is closer to being worth $100 million than $125 million, got me wondering where one should really draw the line with Martinez. How much is he worth, how much will he get, and if he signs elsewhere, do they really have a suitable plan B?

 

J.D. Martinez is a really good hitter.

 

His counting stats indicate he is most like Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s also similar to Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion to a degree (names Boston has been tied to this off-season).

 

His batted ball profiles are close-ish to Mike Trout and Khris Davis! While Khris Davis is not great at generating contact all the time, when he hits it, it does go far. So this is rather encouraging.

 

His plate discipline leaves a little to be desired, as he is very much a free swinger, and compares most favorably to Nelson Cruz.

 

The names across the three lists he has the most overall similarities with appears to be Khris Davis and Nelson Cruz, although Giancarlo Stanton is up there as well.

 

J.D. Martinez, is 30, a mid-point between the two ages. While he is not going to get less than 20 million a year, he is unlikely to eclipse Stanton’s AAV, despite the fact Stanton’s contract did not happen on the open market. Encarnacion, who was coming off a 3.9 fWAR season himself, may be the best comparison we have, given he signed for less than expected, and was a prolific hitter the Red Sox were interested in. Encarnacion put up 2.5 fWAR in his first season in Cleveland. If he continues to do so the next two seasons, the Guardians will have paid 60 million dollars for 7.5 fWAR, a rough valuation of 8 million dollars per fWAR. I would propose given the free agent freeze, that 8 million dollars per fWAR is more likely a valuation than the 11.1 million proposed by Fangraphs last season.

 

Factoring that in, my final guess at Martinez’s “value” (roughly 8 million per fWAR) is set at 115.2 million dollars, over 5 years, adjust if you believe he will be worth a different amount than 14.4 fWAR.

 

It’s all well and good to say J.D. Martinez is “worth” 115.2 million dollars on the current market, but that’s not entirely reality. Value is dependent on exactly what teams are willing to pay you. It’s very possible Martinez is worth closer to the 160 million mentioned above. It’s also possible he’s actually worth more. But if Boston and Arizona do not want to pay him that much money, there are limited options for him to pursue to acquire his true worth.

 

I’m of the belief that Martinez will be signing in the next week or two, and that the contract is going to be seriously underwhelming, making the side that misses out on him wish they upped their offer.

[Bellhorn04]

Is the offer fair?

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/2/14/17010840/j-d-martinez-please-sign-with-the-red-sox

 

If you’ve been following the Martinez saga (and let’s be honest, there’s no way you haven’t. This is precisely the 853rd article written about J.D. Martinez since the off-season began), then you probably know that it’s a far cry from the $200 million contract he was reported to have been seeking and even the six year, $150 million contract that MLBTR predicted he would eventually sign.

 

The latest news, that the offer to Martinez is closer to being worth $100 million than $125 million, got me wondering where one should really draw the line with Martinez. How much is he worth, how much will he get, and if he signs elsewhere, do they really have a suitable plan B?

 

J.D. Martinez is a really good hitter.

 

His counting stats indicate he is most like Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s also similar to Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion to a degree (names Boston has been tied to this off-season).

 

His batted ball profiles are close-ish to Mike Trout and Khris Davis! While Khris Davis is not great at generating contact all the time, when he hits it, it does go far. So this is rather encouraging.

 

His plate discipline leaves a little to be desired, as he is very much a free swinger, and compares most favorably to Nelson Cruz.

 

The names across the three lists he has the most overall similarities with appears to be Khris Davis and Nelson Cruz, although Giancarlo Stanton is up there as well.

 

J.D. Martinez, is 30, a mid-point between the two ages. While he is not going to get less than 20 million a year, he is unlikely to eclipse Stanton’s AAV, despite the fact Stanton’s contract did not happen on the open market. Encarnacion, who was coming off a 3.9 fWAR season himself, may be the best comparison we have, given he signed for less than expected, and was a prolific hitter the Red Sox were interested in. Encarnacion put up 2.5 fWAR in his first season in Cleveland. If he continues to do so the next two seasons, the Guardians will have paid 60 million dollars for 7.5 fWAR, a rough valuation of 8 million dollars per fWAR. I would propose given the free agent freeze, that 8 million dollars per fWAR is more likely a valuation than the 11.1 million proposed by Fangraphs last season.

 

Factoring that in, my final guess at Martinez’s “value” (roughly 8 million per fWAR) is set at 115.2 million dollars, over 5 years, adjust if you believe he will be worth a different amount than 14.4 fWAR.

 

It’s all well and good to say J.D. Martinez is “worth” 115.2 million dollars on the current market, but that’s not entirely reality. Value is dependent on exactly what teams are willing to pay you. It’s very possible Martinez is worth closer to the 160 million mentioned above. It’s also possible he’s actually worth more. But if Boston and Arizona do not want to pay him that much money, there are limited options for him to pursue to acquire his true worth.

 

I’m of the belief that Martinez will be signing in the next week or two, and that the contract is going to be seriously underwhelming, making the side that misses out on him wish they upped their offer.

 

I think it should also be factored in somewhere that JDM has no QO attached.

[sk7326]

That analysis is sound - I'd offer him (if he doesn't like 5/100) something like 3/80, with the third year maybe even a player option.

 

Or - if it's 5/100, maybe frontload it so the last 2 years are less onerous for the Sox

[mvp 78]

I think it should also be factored in somewhere that JDM has no QO attached.

 

I agree, but really don't know how you'd really factor it in monetarily.

[mvp 78]

That analysis is sound - I'd offer him (if he doesn't like 5/100) something like 3/80, with the third year maybe even a player option.

 

Or - if it's 5/100, maybe frontload it so the last 2 years are less onerous for the Sox

 

Onerous? This is the team that signed Panda and Hanley on the same day for $40M AAV. I'm sure they can foot the bill.

[mvp 78]

Rest In Power Tito Francona. (Terry's dad)

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

In Carlos Gonzalez's last 1000 PA away from Coors he's hit .231/.287/.396. Mike Moustakas is going cost a 2nd rder and 500K international money in addition to his contract. He just hit 38 HR but only had a 114 wRC+ because he didn't get on base. Immobile at 3B and extremely slow.

 

I'm not really into either.

[sk7326]

Onerous? This is the team that signed Panda and Hanley on the same day for $40M AAV. I'm sure they can foot the bill.

 

Previous mistakes do not excuse future ones. They absolutely CAN foot the bill ... the question is whether they ought to.

[moonslav59]

That analysis is sound - I'd offer him (if he doesn't like 5/100) something like 3/80, with the third year maybe even a player option.

 

Or - if it's 5/100, maybe frontload it so the last 2 years are less onerous for the Sox

 

Yes, front loading would make it easier to trade him as he gets older.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

 

In Carlos Gonzalez's last 1000 PA away from Coors he's hit .231/.287/.396. Mike Moustakas is going cost a 2nd rder and 500K international money in addition to his contract. He just hit 38 HR but only had a 114 wRC+ because he didn't get on base. Immobile at 3B and extremely slow.

 

I'm not really into either.

 

2018 was his first negative UZR/150 season. Was it a sign of what is to come or a blip?

 

He did go up from +1.5 to +2.5 from '15 to '16, so I'm not sure I see a trend downwards. He was plus on DRS in 2015 and 2016 after being just negative in 2013 and 2014.

 

Anyways, he'd be an upgrade on defense at 3B, if we moved Devers to DH.

 

The .314 OBP is scary, but that .521 SLG could really help in the 5 or 6 slot.

[mvp 78]

2018 was his first negative UZR/150 season. Was it a sign of what is to come or a blip?

 

He did go up from +1.5 to +2.5 from '15 to '16, so I'm not sure I see a trend downwards. He was plus on DRS in 2015 and 2016 after being just negative in 2013 and 2014.

 

Anyways, he'd be an upgrade on defense at 3B, if we moved Devers to DH.

 

The .314 OBP is scary, but that .521 SLG could really help in the 5 or 6 slot.

 

The .521 is a career high tho. I'm not sure we can count on him doing that year in and year out.

[fxkatt]

I hear that the Yanks are eyeing Cobb, but will only sign him if his value descends to about 12 million. I hope it doesn't, because he would certainly back-up any of the question mark Yank starters. And thus seal off the only possible weakness on the team.

[sk7326]

2018 was his first negative UZR/150 season. Was it a sign of what is to come or a blip?

 

He did go up from +1.5 to +2.5 from '15 to '16, so I'm not sure I see a trend downwards. He was plus on DRS in 2015 and 2016 after being just negative in 2013 and 2014.

 

Anyways, he'd be an upgrade on defense at 3B, if we moved Devers to DH.

 

The .314 OBP is scary, but that .521 SLG could really help in the 5 or 6 slot.

 

There is ultimately not much history there - almost all the criticisms of Hosmer (and I agree with a lot of them) apply to Moustakas, except with more homeruns, more outs and an extra year of age.

[mvp 78]

I think I found Natick to NC's twitter account.

 

@JDMartinez14

 

Prayers going out to everyone on the campus of Stoneman Douglas High School right now!!!

 

@michaelis4real

 

a jd are you going to sign or what my man?

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

 

Red Sox fans apparently give Dave Dombrowski advice about how to run the team every morning at his local Dunkin Donuts.

[moonslav59]

There is ultimately not much history there - almost all the criticisms of Hosmer (and I agree with a lot of them) apply to Moustakas, except with more homeruns, more outs and an extra year of age.

 

Hoze has sucked on D for a while. Moose- just one year.

 

Moose is not so up and down, but 2017 was a big year compared to the rest- although he did have one season with a .348 OBP.

[Hitch]

There will be nothing comendable about his patience unless he improves this team.

 

 

So in due time, we could look back at his off season work to date as: commendably patient and restrained.

[Bellhorn04]

@jcmccaffrey

 

Red Sox fans apparently give Dave Dombrowski advice about how to run the team every morning at his local Dunkin Donuts.

 

And he laughs and says 'f*** you, I'm not doing anything today either.'

[mvp 78]

And he laughs and says 'f*** you, I'm not doing anything today either.'

 

He would never say that to a fan. That sounds totally out of character.

[harmony]

The Tampa Bay Rays sign J.D. Martin

 

 

Oops ... wrong J.D. ... ez mistake.

Edited February 14, 2018 by harmony

[Natick to NC]

I get Off work today and spring training well on its way and Dave with both thumbs stuck up his dark place ....I'm freaking done with patience Dave give me ragin FA Sighnings Dave ...What a prick . Edited February 14, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Natick to NC]

You folks talking about Moose are cruel ...my boy Hos would commit Japanese Sakapu if that goes down .I think Dave should sign Moose and Hos on a packy deal or Bogo Edited February 14, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

You folks talking about Moose are cruel ...my boy Hos would commit Japanese Sakapu if that goes down .

 

If he's that fragile, why would you want him here?

[Kimmi]

Why should he do that?

 

This is business. He owes DD no such courtesy. Now he could still do it if he felt DD would make a significant counter offer.

 

Nope, the Sox made their offer. Sink or swim with it.

 

Boras doesn't owe Dombrowski anything, but I would think that if he wants the best offer for his client (and subsequently the most money for himself), he would give Dombrowski an opportunity to beat another offer.

 

That doesn't mean that Dombrowski necessarily will beat it.

 

But if Arizona's offers $100/5, which is reported what the Red Sox offer is, my guess is that JD would choose to return to Arizona. In that case, I could see Dombrowski increasing his offer to $110. I'd be okay with that.

[Kimmi]

FanGraphs piece about JDM and why the Sox could really use him:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-red-sox-and-j-d-martinez-still-need-each-other/

 

I still think JD ends up signing with us. It just makes too much sense for it not to happen.

[Kimmi]

Alternate ways to characterize DD's offseason to date:

 

1. Commendably patient and restrained.

2. Hasn't done a damn thing.

 

 

LOL

 

As I posted before, he is desperate to prove that he's not desperate.