2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

Hosmer isn't a star but I don't get all of the hate. He's a former top prospect entering his prime as a 27 year old coming off a career year hitting .318/.385/.498 w/ 25 HRs and 94RBIs on a pretty bad Royals team. His glove is overrated but I'd say it's still above average.

 

I think he'd be an upgrade at first for a lot of teams, including Boston. He'll probably get overpaid but so does pretty much everyone in free agency. At least he'll provide some value.

 

He's barely an upgrade over Moreland, but is expected to get 5+ years at $20M a year.

 

To me, anything over about $36M/3 will be an overpay. $100M/5 is a gross overpay.

 

He's not the great fielder some think he is. In fact, he's a negative.

 

The OPS+ Yo-Yo...

 

118

81

118

99

122

102

132

 

Every even year he is average.

 

Every odd year he is better.

 

His 2017 132+ OPS is 10 better than any previous season (outlier alert?)

 

 

 

He has been up and down his whole career, so expecting him to repeat 2017 would be a first.

[Bellhorn04]

He's barely an upgrade over Moreland, but is expected to get 5+ years at $20M a year.

 

To me, anything over about $36M/3 will be an overpay. $100M/5 is a gross overpay.

 

He's not the great fielder some think he is. In fact, he's a negative.

 

The OPS+ Yo-Yo...

 

118

81

118

99

122

102

132

 

Every even year he is average.

 

Every odd year he is better.

 

His 2017 132+ OPS is 10 better than any previous season (outlier alert?)

 

He has been up and down his whole career, so expecting him to repeat 2017 would be a first.

 

He's only 28 though.

[Natick to NC]

Yeah that's my thought .Hosmer is a fantastic person a stellar teammate he has been wanting to come here and play on the biggest of stages .I look at Eric and see the anti price lol .He to me is not a slap hitter.I see Eric as a star player who is going into his prime .I am very disappointed in Daves decision on Mitch ,who I think has peeked and is an injury concern .Joy ,excitement ,chemistry ....that's what's missing .some clutch some Steele in big games .Mitch is not Eric and never will be Edited January 22, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Bellhorn04]

Moreland was dirt cheap though.

 

It's JDM we're going to spend on.

[Natick to NC]

Mitch is a good backup ball player on the Mariners ....you don't think he maybe for us too ? I say maybe . Edited January 22, 2018 by Natick to NC

[harmony]

Mitch is a good backup ball player on the Mariners ....

First base is the weakest position for the Seattle Mariners.

[Natick to NC]

Exactly ...not trying to be rude at all but he's a backup .I understand there guy is worse than Mitch . Edited January 22, 2018 by Natick to NC

[bkzwhitestrican]

Even if last year is somewhat of an outlier for Hosmer, I wouldn't say he's barely better than Moreland. MM has a 93 OPS+ over the past two seasons, Hos has 117. Plus he's in his prime coming off his best year whereas MM has been below average since 2015. I'm not arguing that he's worth $20M a year, but he would definitely improve the team and he is definitively better than MM.

[Natick to NC]

I'll get killed for this but I'm praying there's another shoe or two to drop and we get Hosmer at 21 per for 6 ....I see the trash flying at my face already .Is a player at Fenway that hits say 25 HR 97 RBi and a 295 average worth 21 mill ? That's Eric's future here ....he could pop 35 HR but who knows .Yeah I'm talking jibberish now ....please just get JD this week and Land Hosmer as the primary 1b .Trade a subsidized Hanley for a bag of Balls and let's roll. Edited January 22, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

He's only 28 though.

 

So, 29 will mark the stoppage of the yo-yo syndrome?

 

No, thanks.

 

I'd rather sign the guy (JD) who has had an OPS+ above 139 for 4 straight years, despite the age difference.

[moonslav59]

Even if last year is somewhat of an outlier for Hosmer, I wouldn't say he's barely better than Moreland. MM has a 93 OPS+ over the past two seasons, Hos has 117. Plus he's in his prime coming off his best year whereas MM has been below average since 2015. I'm not arguing that he's worth $20M a year, but he would definitely improve the team and he is definitively better than MM.

 

I'm not saying Hosmer is equal to Moreland. He's marginally better, but these numbers don't lie:

 

Hosmer is Moreland without the defense every even year, or at least equal to Moreland's every other year.

 

Moreland's OPS+

 

118 in 2010

106 in 2012

99 in 2013

116 in 2015

99 in 2017

 

Hosmer's even years:

81 in 2012

99 in 2014

102 in 2016

 

Years at 106 OPS+ or better

Moreland 3 out of 8

Hosmer 4 out of 7

 

To be fair...

 

Years at or above 99

Moreland 5 out of 8

Hosmer 6 out of 7

 

UZR/150 Career

Moreland +5.4/ +18 DRS (4 of 8 seasons above 5.8)

EHosmer -4.1/-21 DRS (0 of 7 seasons above 2.2)

 

WAR

Moreland 1 of 8 seasons at or below 0.0.

EHosmer 3 of 7 seasons at or below 0.0.

[Natick to NC]

Yet MLB and almost every writer worth there weight find Hosmer an Elite player ....and Mitch barely above league average .I would throw 21 million a year for 6 at Hismer and never blink an eye ...Mitch is a good Backup player .

[moonslav59]

Yet MLB and almost every writer worth there weight find Hosmer an Elite player ....and Mitch barely above league average .I would throw 21 million a year for 6 at Hismer and never blink an eye ...Mitch is a good Backup player .

 

You don't even blink at the fact that half his seasons are crappy, and he's only had one somewhat "elite" season?

 

You don't even blink at his crappy defense?

 

You don't even blink at the fact that we need power more than anything, and Hosmer is one of the worst power hitting 1Bmen in the league?

 

Look, he's better than Moreland on offense and overall.

 

If your sold on one year wonders, why not advocate for LoMo?

 

He'll probably sign for 2-3 years at close to half what you want to offer Hoze.

 

BTW, probably as many writers called Pablo "elite" as Hosmer.

[moonslav59]

Maybe we have differing views on what the word "elite" means, but Hosmer ranks 12th out 31 1Bmen in WAR since 2014. He's not even top third at his position.

 

He's not bad, but at that money, we should get true "elite".

 

Here are some other 1Bmen numbers from the last 4 years combined:

 

(Think of the difference in contract amounts between these players listed.)

 

31 1Bmen with 1500+ PAs

 

ISO

4. Duda .242

18. LoMo .196

23. Moreland .187

29. Hosmer .160

 

SLG

8. Duda .480

18. Hosmer .449

24. Moreland .438 (just .011 behing Hoze)

25. Morrison .438

 

UZR/150 (31 with 2000+ innings)

2. Moreland 6.4

20. L Duda 0.1

24. Morrison -1.3

25 Hosmer -1.9

 

WAR

12. Hosmer 7.4

13. Duda 6.9 (Might sign for $15M/2)

18. Morrison 4.7

28. Moreland 2.9

 

If we don't get JD, we should sign a solid pitcher (Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb) plus Duda or Morrison (or maybe Nunez).

[Bellhorn04]

I think Hosmer is a moot point as far as the Red Sox. I don't think they have any interest at all. I think they're all in on JD.

[Natick to NC]

Hosmer vs Lomo vs Duda .....Hosmer at Fenway 21 million a year ....Lomo 12 million ....Duda 12 million .Hosmer is a better player a better Leader .I guess you have a lot of numbers there to back you up . I guess I'd be a terrible GM because I wouldn't touch Duda or Lomo .Bottom ninth inning two outs man on third league championship series vs Houston i...you choose Hosmer ? Mitch ? Lomo ? Duda ? ......I'm picking Eric and never second guessing it ...you're numbers say a lot but they don't account for this .... Edited January 23, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Jasonbay44]

I don't really see the need for Duda/Morrison or Hosmer, even without JD Martinez. Moreland is back already, and we reportedly are stuck with Hanley as he isn't movable in trades. I don't really see the point of having Duda/Hanley/Moreland.

[notin]

Yet MLB and almost every writer worth there weight find Hosmer an Elite player

 

But those same writers have called him - direct quote here - the biggest landmine in this free agent class.

 

He will be massively overpaid and for far too long. He's already turned down seven years. And he will be a huge reason why the Sox have to let some younger players go eventually. I'd just assume go for the shorter deal and save up for Betts...

[moonslav59]

Hosmer vs Lomo vs Duda .....Hosmer at Fenway 21 million a year ....Lomo 12 million ....Duda 12 million .Hosmer is a better player a better Leader .I guess you have a lot of numbers there to back you up . I guess I'd be a terrible GM because I wouldn't touch Duda or Lomo .Bottom ninth inning two outs man on third league championship series vs Houston i...you choose Hosmer ? Mitch ? Lomo ? Duda ? ......I'm picking Eric and never second guessing it ...you're numbers say a lot but they don't account for this ....

 

Duda might get $7M x 2.

[Hitch]

Yet MLB and almost every writer worth there weight find Hosmer an Elite player ....and Mitch barely above league average .I would throw 21 million a year for 6 at Hismer and never blink an eye ...Mitch is a good Backup player .

 

I would cry if we gave him that. Cry real tears of pain. It would be an absurd deal.

[Bellhorn04]

So let's assume that the Sox offer to JDM is 5/125 and that it's the best offer and that Boras is just holding out as long as possible for more. What's the endgame? Maybe they could adjust the offer to 6/135. That's an extra year for 10 million, it would also reduce the AAV to 22.5 million.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Jay Bruce got 3 and 39, Duda will be lucky to get a Moreland deal. Big power guys without an OF or non 1b position have been marginalized of late. There are also no shortage of them. I expect the sox to find one more bat. If it isn’t JD, they’ll go LoMo or Duda and move on. They cannot go into this year with the same offense. Status quo will get you bounced from the playoffs early

[Jack Flap]

I see Hosmer as a good, not great, player who is going to be paid more for longer years than he probably should. I said the same once about Crawford and Sandoval (though obviously both of those contracts turned out far worse than anyone anticipated)...I don't see Hosmer being that kind of disaster, but I think there are much better ways to allocate our resources.

 

The 5/125 offer for Martinez seems eminently reasonable and gives me some hope that this should get done. If a sixth year is the sticking point, I don't know that I'd let that get in the way of a deal when we're going for it in 2018-19...maybe give him a choice between 5/125 and something like 6/138, or make the sixth year some sort of an option.

 

After that you set a deadline, and if that's not good enough, move on. Maybe it's the lingering memory of the previous time we signed a Boras client who held out into the season, but I really don't have much desire to continue negotiating with Martinez once spring training is underway - and unless the team believes its own press about being content with the roster they have (which would be painted by fans and media as a failure of an offseason), they'll need to leave themselves time to make a move before Plans B, C, etc. drop off the board. JDM is obviously the best individual player available for our needs, but I've wondered all winter if we wouldn't be better off with someone like Duda plus a starting pitcher (is it too late to get in on the Darvish sweepstakes?) than with Martinez alone. I still hope we add another good reliever or two, and some more infield depth wouldn't hurt, either (we remain connected to Nunez based on recent reports). It's a bit of a bummer that an offseason that started out with numerous possibilities seems to have been reduced to "Get JDM or bust," so I hope Dave still has a few things up his sleeve.

 

Having this many major free agents still unsigned in late January is kind of surreal. One has to think the ice is going to break and there will be a burst of activity sometime in the next couple of weeks...we'll see.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Jack Flap

[jacksonianmarch]

I see Hosmer as that kind of disaster. At least Crawford could fake it in CF and play good D in LF. Pablo was signed as a 3b. Hosmer is a poor glove 1b whose offensive numbers seem entirely dependent on an unsustainably high BABIP. He doesn't hit for enough power to have one major tool propel himself beyond his peers at a position known for power.

 

Here's an interesting stat for you. Hosmer's career BABIP is a very lucky .315. But he has proven he can be better than what is expected on the whole, and some players are capable of doing that. But when you break down his season by season BABIP's, theres a striking problem.

 

In the 3 seasons where his WAR was 3+, his BABIPs were .351, .336, and .335. In the 3 seasons of 0 or sub zero WAR, his BABIPs were .255, .312, and .301. What it comes down to is, when Hosmer can keep his BABIP high, he has a good season. When he cannot, he doesn't. That is usually the same for ALL players. There are few players who can keep their BABIPs high, and those guys usually have insane barrel rates.

[oldtimer]

I see Hosmer as a good, not great, player who is going to be paid more for longer years than he probably should. I said the same once about Crawford and Sandoval (though obviously both of those contracts turned out far worse than anyone anticipated)...I don't see Hosmer being that kind of disaster, but I think there are much better ways to allocate our resources.

 

The 5/125 offer for Martinez seems eminently reasonable and gives me some hope that this should get done. If a sixth year is the sticking point, I don't know that I'd let that get in the way of a deal when we're going for it in 2018-19...maybe give him a choice between 5/125 and something like 6/138, or make the sixth year some sort of an option.

 

After that you set a deadline, and if that's not good enough, move on. Maybe it's the lingering memory of the previous time we signed a Boras client who held out into the season, but I really don't have much desire to continue negotiating with Martinez once spring training is underway - and unless the team believes its own press about being content with the roster they have (which would be painted by fans and media as a failure of an offseason), they'll need to leave themselves time to make a move before Plans B, C, etc. drop off the board. JDM is obviously the best individual player available for our needs, but I've wondered all winter if we wouldn't be better off with someone like Duda plus a starting pitcher (is it too late to get in on the Darvish sweepstakes?) than with Martinez alone. I still hope we add another good reliever or too, and some more infield depth wouldn't hurt, either (we remain connected to Nunez based on recent reports). It's a bit of a bummer that an offseason that started out with numerous possibilities seems to have been reduced to "Get JDM or bust," so I hope Dave still has a few things up his sleeve.

 

Having this many major free agents still unsigned in late January is kind of surreal. One has to think the ice is going to break and there will be a burst of activity sometime in the next couple of weeks...we'll see.

 

I don't believe in bidding against yourself in a negotiation. If we feel $125 Mil for 5 is fair based on value to us we should stick to our offer and also set a deadline. If JD doesn't work out for us we can get a guy like Nunez (great for us last year) and a pitcher for the same price and probably not exceed 3 years commitment with either offer. I too believe that JD is our best get but not if he isn't interested at the value we have worked out for him. I would not offer any contracts over 5 years for guys entering their 30's.

[mvp 78]

I'll get killed for this but I'm praying there's another shoe or two to drop and we get Hosmer at 21 per for 6 ....I see the trash flying at my face already .Is a player at Fenway that hits say 25 HR 97 RBi and a 295 average worth 21 mill ? That's Eric's future here ....he could pop 35 HR but who knows .Yeah I'm talking jibberish now ....please just get JD this week and Land Hosmer as the primary 1b .Trade a subsidized Hanley for a bag of Balls and let's roll.

 

To be a DH? What's the point in that? It'd make more sense to sign Moose to play DH at a shorter contract (and I don't even like that move).

 

If they don't get JD, they should grab LoMo. He's probably the cheapest option out there.

[mvp 78]

If Jay Bruce got 3 and 39, Duda will be lucky to get a Moreland deal. Big power guys without an OF or non 1b position have been marginalized of late. There are also no shortage of them. I expect the sox to find one more bat. If it isn’t JD, they’ll go LoMo or Duda and move on. They cannot go into this year with the same offense. Status quo will get you bounced from the playoffs early

 

I agree 100%.

[notin]

I'll get killed for this but I'm praying there's another shoe or two to drop and we get Hosmer at 21 per for 6 ....I see the trash flying at my face already .Is a player at Fenway that hits say 25 HR 97 RBi and a 295 average worth 21 mill ? That's Eric's future here ....he could pop 35 HR but who knows .Yeah I'm talking jibberish now ....please just get JD this week and Land Hosmer as the primary 1b .Trade a subsidized Hanley for a bag of Balls and let's roll.

 

Hosmer is not going to sign for $121mill for 6 years when he has already turned down $140million for 7 years. Unless he foolishly thinks he can get another deal worth $19mill at age 34...

[moonslav59]

So let's assume that the Sox offer to JDM is 5/125 and that it's the best offer and that Boras is just holding out as long as possible for more. What's the endgame? Maybe they could adjust the offer to 6/135. That's an extra year for 10 million, it would also reduce the AAV to 22.5 million.

 

Or, add a $20M option with a $5M buyout, essentially making it a $130M/6 for tax purposes and $130M/5 in reality.

[moonslav59]

To be a DH? What's the point in that? It'd make more sense to sign Moose to play DH at a shorter contract (and I don't even like that move).

 

If they don't get JD, they should grab LoMo. He's probably the cheapest option out there.

 

Right now, nobody is talking to Moose. His price may drop way down. He could play 3B and Devers could DH/1B.

 

If we don't get JD, I'd look at LoMo or Moose with Duda as a secondary option. If we end up with Duda, I'd spend the rest of the money on Cobb or Lynn, despite their "issues".