2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Morrison has played some outfield.

[a700hitter]

Morrison has played some outfield.

Notin pointed out that he stinks in the OF. Is he Hanley bad, or is he serviceable?

[Bellhorn04]

Notin pointed out that he stinks in the OF. Is he Hanley bad, or is he serviceable?

 

Not sure...what I was wondering is if he's better or worse than JDM out there.

[a700hitter]

Not sure...what I was wondering is if he's better or worse than JDM out there.

JD is not Hanley bad.

[notin]

JD would not cause as much of a logjam or impede the versatility of the bench as Morrison would cause. A fourth outfielder should get plenty of time subbing for the starting 3 outfielders and playing DH. ANd the key is that the offensive upgrade with JD far outweighs any upgrade with Morrison, so JD would be worth the any loss of bench flexibility. Morrison is just not worth it. If it comes down to Morrison or nothing, I move into the status quo camp despite the fact that I think that is an irrational strategy.

 

I d get that Morrison isn't the hitter Martinez is, but then he also wouldn't become the complete roster hamstring Martinez might become. And the way these negotiations appear to be going, Martinez is deadset on becoming one. You yuorself said he won't be worth it at age 37 (especially, as you pointed out, he misses tons of time), and right now he wants to sign until he is at least that age. And he probably won't get healthier is nid mid and late 30s.

 

Morrison is certainly tough to buy into. Late in the 2016 season, he went on an offensive tear. He did manage to make it last all through 2018. But then, an offensive tear for Logan Morrison is a bad season for Martinez. And it's not like morrison is significantly younger. He's only 4 days younger than JD. Not likely Martinez got much baseball in during those 4 days.

 

But Morrison isn't likely to command a 6 or 7 year deal. Figure he should get less than CArlos Santana (3 yrs $60mill). Probably a lot less. Like 3 years $39-45mill worst case. Maybe less. Maybe 3 yrs $27mill.

 

However, signing Morrison could also give the Sox some flexibility to upgrade the rotation. Not sure where Arrieta (no buzz) or Cobb (turned down 3 yrs $42mill and not much in the way of other buzz) or Lance Lynn will go for, but that can be counted as part of the improvement. There are reasons to like and not like all three of those pitchers.

 

But would you prefer Martinez at DH and Wright on the mound? Or Morrison at DH and Cobb on the mound?

[oldtimer]

Devers is Ted Williams but with better wheels.

 

Williams was a great player and maybe the greatest hitter in recent memory (recent when one is approaching 80). Kind of a bad joke to compare Devers favorably to Williams.

[Bellhorn04]

Cobb might be a good get. Health concerns obviously.

[notin]

JD is not Hanley bad.

 

I think he is comparing Morrison and Martinez, not Hanley.

 

None of them are Hanley bad. I think Martinez is probably the better OF over Morrison. He certainly has the more significant sample size.

 

But does it matter for the Sox? If they aren't dealing Bradley, which Dave "No One is Having Surgery" Dombroski says they are not, then JD is the primary DH. Unless they demote Benintendi, which is about as likely as the Sox signing me to play 2B...

[Bellhorn04]

Williams was a great player and maybe the greatest hitter in recent memory (recent when one is approaching 80). Kind of a bad joke to compare Devers favorably to Williams.

 

mvp is a humorist.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't look like anyone is upping their offer to JD, which is why he is threatening to hold out through spring training.

 

I say move on to Morrison. And pass along to the King Kong of Slug best wishes in getting the deal he thinks he deserves. No one is going to give him $30mill with Harper in play next off-season...

 

I'm starting to feel the same way, but I wouldn't give up on JD until maybe Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere. There is no hurry, until our plan B options are about to be signed elsewhere.

[notin]

Cobb might be a good get. Health concerns obviously.

 

Big time. Ditto Darvish, whom I did not mention.

 

Arrieta is aging and declining and apparently wants $200mill.

 

Lynn appeared to be very lucky last year. But he also had TJ two seasons ago, which might be an issue given that repair seems to last for about 600IP (or 3-4 seasons).

 

There isn't much else. It seems odd that the best remaining pitcher to sign might be Greg Holland. Although he might want Wade Davis money, too..

[moonslav59]

Can you imagine his numbers for a full season? CAN YOU IMAGINE?!?!? HOF NUMBERS

 

If you double BR's weird projection of 320 PAs for Devers in 2018, he's have these numbers:

 

.279 26 82 (.344/.479/.823)

 

If you change his 2017 numbers to match 162 games played (670 PAs), here would have been those numbers:

 

.284 27 83 (.338/.482/.819)

 

Either numbers could provide quite a jolt to our 2018 season.

[baseball jones]

Big time. Ditto Darvish, whom I did not mention.

 

Arrieta is aging and declining and apparently wants $200mill.

 

Lynn appeared to be very lucky last year. But he also had TJ two seasons ago, which might be an issue given that repair seems to last for about 600IP (or 3-4 seasons).

 

There isn't much else. It seems odd that the best remaining pitcher to sign might be Greg Holland. Although he might want Wade Davis money, too..

 

darvish was just offered 7yr/160mil from the yankees with 48 hrs to accept

[moonslav59]

It doesn't matter how much we paid Moreland, there just isn't room for another first baseman. They aren't going to relegate Moreland or Hanley to such a limited role. Also, Morrison is not enough of an upgrade over either one to be worth relegating either of them to a limited role. And Three first basemen would cut down on the flexibility and versatility of the bench.

 

If we sign JD to DH, aren't we relegating Moreland and HRam to such "limited roles"? Sure, JD can play the OF when one needs a rest thereby opening up maybe 15-30 games at DH for HRam, but there's not that much difference between Morrison & JD in terms of how it affects other players's playing time.

 

(Besides, can't Morrison play a few games in LF?)

[moonslav59]

JD would not cause as much of a logjam or impede the versatility of the bench as Morrison would cause. A fourth outfielder should get plenty of time subbing for the starting 3 outfielders and playing DH. ANd the key is that the offensive upgrade with JD far outweighs any upgrade with Morrison, so JD would be worth the any loss of bench flexibility. Morrison is just not worth it. If it comes down to Morrison or nothing, I move into the status quo camp despite the fact that I think that is an irrational strategy.

 

Yes, JD's offense is much better than Morrison (except his 2017 numbers), but at what added cost?

 

The money saved by not signing JD and getting Morrison instead could be used to add another solid SP'er or keep Pomeranz/Kimbrel around longer.

 

It wouldn't bs just a JD vs Morrison comp. It would be JD vs Morrison & Cobb (or the like).

[moonslav59]

The risk is which Morrison are we getting?

 

The 38 HR and .353 OBP one from 2017 (He also hit .375 in Sept of 2016) or the previous one?

 

[Bellhorn04]

darvish was just offered 7yr/160mil from the yankees with 48 hrs to accept

 

Darvish himself tweeted that the Yankees made an offer but it wasn't 7/160.

[Bellhorn04]

The risk is which Morrison are we getting?

 

The 38 HR and .353 OBP one from 2017 (He also hit .375 in Sept of 2016) or the previous one?

 

 

Indeed. No matter what you do, you're rolling the dice.

[moonslav59]

darvish was just offered 7yr/160mil from the yankees with 48 hrs to accept

 

So much for re-setting the luxury tax. Maybe they have a taker on Ellsbury or will trade other somewhat costly players.

 

This would suck, bigtime for us.

[Bellhorn04]

JDM has at least been consistently mashing for 4 years now.

[moonslav59]

Indeed. No matter what you do, you're rolling the dice.

 

Yes, JD is a big dice roll, too with bigger upside (performance level) and downside (money & years).

[baseball jones]

Darvish himself tweeted that the Yankees made an offer but it wasn't 7/160.

 

im watching mlb tonight.they are reporting it

[moonslav59]

JDM has at least been consistently mashing for 4 years now.

 

True, but over the last 4 years, he has a lower WAR than Todd Frazier and is just above Encarnacion who got less than half of what JD expects to make.

 

2014-2017

 

JD .300 128 350 (32 HRs and 88 RBIs in 535 PAs per season)

.362 OBP/ .574 SLG

 

LM .242 80 220 (20 HRs and 55 RBI in 470 PAs per season)

.324 OBP/.438 SLG

 

[Bellhorn04]

True, but over the last 4 years, he has a lower WAR than Todd Frazier and is just above Encarnacion who got less than half of what JD expects to make.

 

2014-2017

 

JD .300 128 350 (32 HRs and 88 RBIs in 535 PAs per season)

.362 OBP/ .574 SLG

 

LM .242 80 220 (20 HRs and 55 RBI in 470 PAs per season)

.324 OBP/.438 SLG

 

 

Which is why it seems unlikely any team will go much more than 5/125 for JDM. As we've been talking about, the data heads seem to have taken over the thinking of FO's.

[notin]

So much for re-setting the luxury tax. Maybe they have a taker on Ellsbury or will trade other somewhat costly players.

 

This would suck, bigtime for us.

 

If I was a GM, I wouldn't touch Ellsbury unless the Yankees included Torres. But if they did include Torres, I take Ellsbury without question.

 

In fact one of the problems the Yankees are running into with trades is everyone wants the prospects they don't want to trade. Teams will take Torres and Sheffield, but no one wants to settle for Frazier, Adams and Andujar...

[harmony]

If I was a GM, I wouldn't touch Ellsbury unless the Yankees included Torres. But if they did include Torres, I take Ellsbury without question.

 

In fact one of the problems the Yankees are running into with trades is everyone wants the prospects they don't want to trade. Teams will take Torres and Sheffield, but no one wants to settle for Frazier, Adams and Andujar...

I've proposed:

 

Three years of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury at $68.5 million

One year of righthander Adam Warren with a 2018 salary of $3.315 million

Two years of center fielder Aaron Hicks with a 2018 salary of $2.825 million

for

Three years of reliever Mark Melancon at $48 million

One or two years of DH / third baseman Pablo Sandoval at the league minimum

 

Replacing Ellsbury’s contract with Melancon’s, the Yankees save roughly $7 million AAV over the next three seasons. Melancon and Warren swap bullpens while the Giants fill out their outfield with Ellsbury and Hicks. The Yanks also shed the combined 2018 salaries of $6.14 million for Warren and Hicks.

 

The trade would leave the Yankees with an outfield of Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge with Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial, Billy McKinney and Jake Cave waiting in the wings.

 

Three years of Melancon could provide insurance against the potential departure of David Robertson, another converted closer, when the latter's contract expires after this season. Robertson and Melancon are right-handed relievers, born 11 days apart, selected by the Yankees in the 2006 draft (along with Dellin Betances).

 

Pablo Sandoval, a wild card at the league minimum, is a DFA candidate but could serve as a DH option or play third base until the touted prospects are ready. With no designated hitter and the recent addition of Evan Longoria, the Giants have no room for Sandoval. Then again, the Yankees might not have room for Sandoval on their 40-man roster.

 

The Giants would field a lineup of C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Joe Panik, SS Brandon Crawford, 3B Evan Longoria, LF Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Aaron Hicks and RF Hunter Pence to go with a shallow starting rotation impressively topped by Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija.

 

The keys, of course, are the off-setting salaries of Ellsbury and Melancon, who each have full no-trade clauses. I don’t know the status of Sandoval’s limited no-trade clause.

[notin]

I've proposed:

 

Three years of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury at $68.5 million

One year of righthander Adam Warren with a 2018 salary of $3.315 million

Two years of center fielder Aaron Hicks with a 2018 salary of $2.825 million

for

Three years of reliever Mark Melancon at $48 million

One or two years of DH / third baseman Pablo Sandoval at the league minimum

 

Replacing Ellsbury’s contract with Melancon’s, the Yankees save roughly $7 million AAV over the next three seasons. Melancon and Warren swap bullpens while the Giants fill out their outfield with Ellsbury and Hicks. The Yanks also shed the combined 2018 salaries of $6.14 million for Warren and Hicks.

 

The trade would leave the Yankees with an outfield of Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge with Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial, Billy McKinney and Jake Cave waiting in the wings.

 

Three years of Melancon could provide insurance against the potential departure of David Robertson, another converted closer, when the latter's contract expires after this season. Robertson and Melancon are right-handed relievers, born 11 days apart, selected by the Yankees in the 2006 draft (along with Dellin Betances).

 

Pablo Sandoval, a wild card at the league minimum, is a DFA candidate but could serve as a DH option or play third base until the touted prospects are ready. With no designated hitter and the recent addition of Evan Longoria, the Giants have no room for Sandoval. Then again, the Yankees might not have room for Sandoval on their 40-man roster.

 

The Giants would field a lineup of C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Joe Panik, SS Brandon Crawford, 3B Evan Longoria, LF Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Aaron Hicks and RF Hunter Pence to go with a shallow starting rotation impressively topped by Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija.

 

The keys, of course, are the off-setting salaries of Ellsbury and Melancon, who each have full no-trade clauses. I don’t know the status of Sandoval’s limited no-trade clause.

 

Why would the Giants do that? They have to put up with rapidly declining Ellsbury for longer than they would have Hicks. And they have to spend more on Ellsbury than they do on Melancon.

 

And why do you think the Giants are so desperate to move Melancon? He's been there one season and he spent a lot of that injured. Unless he is not going to be healthy again, it's probably not worth it to them. And if he is going to have health problems, the Yankees might nix the deal. (Although they might not anyway if they can drop Ellsbury.)

 

I don't think Adam Warren and Aaron Hicks are enough enticement for the Giants here. Especially since they are the team taking on $7mill and now they need a closer, which can be VERY costly. You would need to replace Warren with someone more appealing, like Chad Green. At minimum. Balances out the salaries better and doesn't screw the Giants as badly...

[notin]

Darvish himself tweeted that the Yankees made an offer but it wasn't 7/160.

 

MLBTR seems to refute that claim.

 

After musing recently on a mystery team, Darvish again took to the airwaves today to address the interest of the Yankees. After first suggesting the team had not made him an offer, the veteran righty then tweeted he had received one — but that “the numbers are not correct.” That said, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (via Twitter) that New York has not, in fact, put together a contract proposal for Darvish.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/cubs-epstein-pitching-arrieta-darvish-yankees-mlb-trade-rumors-athletics-lefty-reliever-watson-duensing.html

[cp176]

Williams was a great player and maybe the greatest hitter in recent memory (recent when one is approaching 80). Kind of a bad joke to compare Devers favorably to Williams.

 

MVP likes to have a little fun which is never a bad thing. I grew up watching Ted and I still believe that he was the greatest hitter that I have ever seen. Great fisherman, and fighter pilot as well.

[baseball jones]

MLBTR seems to refute that claim.

 

After musing recently on a mystery team, Darvish again took to the airwaves today to address the interest of the Yankees. After first suggesting the team had not made him an offer, the veteran righty then tweeted he had received one — but that “the numbers are not correct.” That said, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (via Twitter) that New York has not, in fact, put together a contract proposal for Darvish.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/cubs-epstein-pitching-arrieta-darvish-yankees-mlb-trade-rumors-athletics-lefty-reliever-watson-duensing.html

 

i saw it this morn on mlb tv he was offered 7/160 with 48 hrs to accept but time will tell what the truth is