2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

The whole thing is crazy. Billionaire owners . Millionaire players. Millionaire commissioners. Revenue sharing. Luxury taxes . Lawyers , agents , etc. How does the average person relate to all of this ? We love the game and pull for our team. Most of us have played the game at some level. But how can we relate to the business side of it all ? Why do we put up with the outrageous ticket prices , parking , concessions , cable and dish fees , etc. ? It is actually funny to hear fans debating that so and so is worth 20 million a year for five years , but certainly not 21 million a year for six years. Too much.

Each year I attend a few NCAA Division III games with free admission, free parking and a seat behind home plate.

 

For the love of the game.

[harmony]

I'm sure the average everyday worker would love to see their share go up at just 17% less than the big wigs' share.

I acknowledge that's a far more serious issue in our society.

[Spudboy]

The whole thing is crazy. Billionaire owners . Millionaire players. Millionaire commissioners. Revenue sharing. Luxury taxes . Lawyers , agents , etc. How does the average person relate to all of this ? We love the game and pull for our team. Most of us have played the game at some level. But how can we relate to the business side of it all ? Why do we put up with the outrageous ticket prices , parking , concessions , cable and dish fees , etc. ? It is actually funny to hear fans debating that so and so is worth 20 million a year for five years , but certainly not 21 million a year for six years. Too much.

 

Amen bro.

[moonslav59]

I have said this many times here. Think about the profit JH makes if and when he sells.

 

Way more than he made year by year combined.

[notin]

I doubt you are right. As long as the economy booms, the teams will make a killing. Heck, teams made a killing even during the 08 recession. Also, it isn't good for a business for the profits to stagnate while the employees eat all the profits. That stifles innovation

 

Even the Marlins?

[moonslav59]

Even the Marlins?

 

The public pays for the stadium.

 

We'd probably be surprised at how much the owners actually made (make) when everything is factored in.

 

[cp176]

Each year I attend a few NCAA Division III games with free admission, free parking and a seat behind home plate.

 

For the love of the game.

 

I have a daughter that attended one of those division 3 schools. Admission, parking, and free seats should be provided based on how much it costs to attend many of these schools. Check out the endowments of some of these more prestigious div. 3 schools. Billions of dollars. I'm not sure that there are free rides anywhere.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even the Marlins?

 

Unless you’re a team that spends like a large market club yet has small market revenues

[moonslav59]

Unless you’re a team that spends like a large market club yet has small market revenues

 

One way small market teams replenish their farm is to sign their stars, even to (usually back-ended) contracts they know they cannot pay, knowing they will just trade them when the cost per year gets too high. It's a successful strategy- not fiscal irresponsibility.

 

Yes, sometimes they sign a promising player to a contract and that player does not "play to the value", and they get stuck with an untradeable player, but most of the time, the strategy works.

 

The Rays have mastered this plan. The Marlins have a long history of signing big contracts then dumping them, sometimes right after a ring.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi - How many years do you think a player needs to play in order to establish a meaningful mean?

 

There are a lot of factors that need to be considered, but I think 3 years should give a meaningful mean. You want to take into account what the player was projected to do. I know that projections aren't the end all be all, but they factor in past performance, along with other things like the player's age (whether the player is entering his prime or declining).

 

IMO, you can then get a fairly good idea about whether the player underperformed or overperformed, and whether regression is likely or a continuing trend in a certain direction is more likely.

 

I've posted this before: In terms of predicting howa player will play the remainder of the season, projections trump in season performance to date at any point in the season.

[Kimmi]

It's also not unrealistic to expect a player who is approaching prime to get even better year by year. He could have a career year.

 

True, he may have also already had his career year.

 

This is correct. Every player who has had a better than average year is not going to regress. It could be that the player is entering his prime, etc. When a young player like Mookie takes a step backward, however, I feel pretty confident in saying that we will see some positive regression.

[Kimmi]

It doesn't look like anyone is upping their offer to JD, which is why he is threatening to hold out through spring training.

 

I say move on to Morrison. And pass along to the King Kong of Slug best wishes in getting the deal he thinks he deserves. No one is going to give him $30mill with Harper in play next off-season...

 

I tend to agree.

 

Let's turn our efforts to Mr. Darvish. He will be expensive too, but maybe he'll be a little more reasonable with his demands than JD. I think we need the pitching more than the bat anyway.

[harmony]

I have a daughter that attended one of those division 3 schools. Admission, parking, and free seats should be provided based on how much it costs to attend many of these schools. Check out the endowments of some of these more prestigious div. 3 schools. Billions of dollars. I'm not sure that there are free rides anywhere.

I pay admission when I attend baseball games at my two daughters' universities: a Division I private school with an endowment of $22.4 billion and a Division II state school with an endowment of $1.4 billion.

[Kimmi]

JD would not cause as much of a logjam or impede the versatility of the bench as Morrison would cause. A fourth outfielder should get plenty of time subbing for the starting 3 outfielders and playing DH. ANd the key is that the offensive upgrade with JD far outweighs any upgrade with Morrison, so JD would be worth the any loss of bench flexibility. Morrison is just not worth it. If it comes down to Morrison or nothing, I move into the status quo camp despite the fact that I think that is an irrational strategy.

 

!!!

[harmony]

Rumor has it that Travis Shaw might be headed to the Yankees, Braves or Mets if the Milwaukee Brewers sign Mike Moustakas:

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post

JD would not cause as much of a logjam or impede the versatility of the bench as Morrison would cause. A fourth outfielder should get plenty of time subbing for the starting 3 outfielders and playing DH. ANd the key is that the offensive upgrade with JD far outweighs any upgrade with Morrison, so JD would be worth the any loss of bench flexibility. Morrison is just not worth it. If it comes down to Morrison or nothing, I move into the status quo camp despite the fact that I think that is an irrational strategy.

 

 

!!!

 

 

Except that Morrison can play LF (probably at pretty close to the same leve as JD), so the bench logjam is pretty similar, while the cost differential is immense.

 

[Kimmi]

Agents and MLB front offices have professionals who understand each other's positions. The sides avoid poisoning the well, such as labeling the adversary "Bora$$" or telling him "I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring."*

 

We leave that to unprofessional fans.

 

* especially from a club, with three first-place finishes and three last-place finishes in the last six years, that is barely projected among in the top quarter of 2018 teams:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

Agents and FOs might be professional, but a player going to arbitration still has to listen to all the reasons why a team doesn't think the player is worth what the player thinks he is worth. That could certainly create some hard feelings.

[a700hitter]

Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post

JD would not cause as much of a logjam or impede the versatility of the bench as Morrison would cause. A fourth outfielder should get plenty of time subbing for the starting 3 outfielders and playing DH. ANd the key is that the offensive upgrade with JD far outweighs any upgrade with Morrison, so JD would be worth the any loss of bench flexibility. Morrison is just not worth it. If it comes down to Morrison or nothing, I move into the status quo camp despite the fact that I think that is an irrational strategy.

 

 

!!!

 

 

Except that Morrison can play LF (probably at pretty close to the same leve as JD), so the bench logjam is pretty similar, while the cost differential is immense.

 

Put me in the status quo camp if the choice is Logan Morrison. I just don't see him bringing much to the table as an upgrade. I'd rather look at Arrieta or Darvish.

[Kimmi]

Except that Morrison can play LF (probably at pretty close to the same leve as JD), so the bench logjam is pretty similar, while the cost differential is immense.

 

 

I agree that the team could work around the 'logjam'.

 

I was just highlighting my point to a700 that staying status quo would be better than making a bad deal, not that I necessarily think signing Morrison is a bad deal.

[moonslav59]

Put me in the status quo camp if the choice is Logan Morrison. I just don't see him bringing much to the table as an upgrade. I'd rather look at Arrieta or Darvish.

 

It may not be an either/or. If darvish will make about $100M, we can get Darvish AND Morrison for close to what JD will make

 

I'm not a huge Morrison or Duda fan, but both have put up some big power numbers (Morrison for 1 year- Duda for 4 years).

 

If we can find a take for HRam that saves us $5-9M, there's no log jam at all, and we're spending less than if we sign JD and keep HRam.

 

There is a chance Morrison's 38 HRs was not a fluke.

[cp176]

There are a lot of factors that need to be considered, but I think 3 years should give a meaningful mean. You want to take into account what the player was projected to do. I know that projections aren't the end all be all, but they factor in past performance, along with other things like the player's age (whether the player is entering his prime or declining).

 

IMO, you can then get a fairly good idea about whether the player underperformed or overperformed, and whether regression is likely or a continuing trend in a certain direction is more likely.

 

I've posted this before: In terms of predicting howa player will play the remainder of the season, projections trump in season performance to date at any point in the season.

 

Thank you -

[baseball jones]

i cant wait for all this "business of baseball" to be done,whatever ends up getting done.it'll be nice to talk about the team or a game.

 

i lived in fort myers for a long time and having the sox there was a lot of fun.you can go to the stadium on non game days and pay admission to sit and watch the work outs.hang out right at the field and talk with players and coaches.on a crisp morning in florida theres nothing like it.for thrue fans theres nothing like it and i recomend it highly if you havent had the opportunity.it has a way of making everything feel new again

[cp176]

I have a daughter that attended one of those division 3 schools. Admission, parking, and free seats should be provided based on how much it costs to attend many of these schools. Check out the endowments of some of these more prestigious div. 3 schools. Billions of dollars. I'm not sure that there are free rides anywhere.

 

I'm really not sure that I am even trying to make a point but if I were to make one it would be that in the northeast whenever I go anywhere i can see tremendous signs of wealth. Of course both sides of this spectrum get pretty well covered - I get that but I really disagree with the folks who see any big cataclysmic financial downfall on the horizon. There will continue to be ups and downs as there have always been but I don't see the clock getting turned back anytime soon. Entertainment is big business, I just wish that the entertainers would just do what they are paid to do - that's it. As for the colleges - sorry but any Division 3 school with over a billion dollars worth of endowment funds kicking around has a lot more coming in (maybe too much) then they are paying out. The rich do tend to continue to get richer.

[S5Dewey]

i cant wait for all this "business of baseball" to be done,whatever ends up getting done.it'll be nice to talk about the team or a game.

 

i lived in fort myers for a long time and having the sox there was a lot of fun.you can go to the stadium on non game days and pay admission to sit and watch the work outs.hang out right at the field and talk with players and coaches.on a crisp morning in florida theres nothing like it.for thrue fans theres nothing like it and i recomend it highly if you havent had the opportunity.it has a way of making everything feel new again

 

I agree completely with what you say. For the past few years I've made a point of arriving before the games start and going to the field to watch the workouts and I've now come to enjoy the workouts almost as much as the games. And the best part is that it's free! :-) I do have to wonder though how long it will be before the Sox charge for parking on those days. :-(

[S5Dewey]

I have a daughter that attended one of those division 3 schools. Admission, parking, and free seats should be provided based on how much it costs to attend many of these schools. Check out the endowments of some of these more prestigious div. 3 schools. Billions of dollars. I'm not sure that there are free rides anywhere.

 

My son attended one of those D3 schools about 20 years ago. Tuition, room & board there is now ~$63,000/year. One would think that admission, parking and free seats for parents (Hell, the whole damn family!!) would be included in that $63,000, wouldn't you?

[moonslav59]

My son attended one of those D3 schools about 20 years ago. Tuition, room & board there is now ~$63,000/year. One would think that admission, parking and free seats for parents (Hell, the whole damn family!!) would be included in that $63,000, wouldn't you?

 

When I went to the University of Notre Dame from '77 to '81, football and basketball tickets were included in the cost. I believe we paid about $6-9K per year for me to go there. Now, it's about $65,000 for tuition and room & board.

[baseball jones]

I agree completely with what you say. For the past few years I've made a point of arriving before the games start and going to the field to watch the workouts and I've now come to enjoy the workouts almost as much as the games. And the best part is that it's free! :-) I do have to wonder though how long it will be before the Sox charge for parking on those days. :-(

 

haha that may change this year depending on who they sign.

[baseball jones]

When I went to the University of Notre Dame from '77 to '81, football and basketball tickets were included in the cost. I believe we paid about $6-9K per year for me to go there. Now, it's about $65,000 for tuition and room & board.

 

the money has gone crazy,i saw a ticket stub for sale yesterday on ebay for 1970 yankees red sox game.(i believe i was at that game) the price on the ticket was $3.75 for boxed seats.the price for the ticket stub was $55 and the shipping was $6.what in the world has happened. lol

[S5Dewey]

haha that may change this year depending on who they sign.

 

Here's word of warning if anyone is planning to do visit JetBlue Park for the workouts now though. Get there early.... but not too early. During the last week of workouts the players don't show up until after 9:00 am and they're done by noon. They all have early afternoon tee-times.

[baseball jones]

the giants have acquired andrew mcclutchen from the pirates

 

removing them from the jdm market if they were in on it