2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, just stfu and get over it

[cp176]

Guys, just stfu and get over it

 

We should don't you think? Oh well it is just something to do.

[Jack Flap]

Guys, just stfu and get over it

 

Lol....sound advice.

[Hitch]

cp, I don't see you as having passive-aggressiveness as a characteristic, only that your post referring to me, while not actually addressing me, was. I wouldn't presume to say it's a constant thing as I know too little of you.

 

I apologise for the e-fellatio comment. It was meant more with humour than malice, such can be my immature sense of fun. What say we put it all behind us and get back to just arguing about the baseball, or in our case, agreeing that we should pull out the stops and get Machado in.

 

Be quiet Jackson. If we have to put up with your constant doom-mongering about anything Red Sox, you can put up with a little back and forth between us.

[cp176]

cp, I don't see you as having passive-aggressiveness as a characteristic, only that your post referring to me, while not actually addressing me, was. I wouldn't presume to say it's a constant thing as I know too little of you.

 

I apologise for the e-fellatio comment. It was meant more with humour than malice, such can be my immature sense of fun. What say we put it all behind us and get back to just arguing about the baseball, or in our case, agreeing that we should pull out the stops and get Machado in.

 

Be quiet Jackson. If we have to put up with your constant doom-mongering about anything Red Sox, you can put up with a little back and forth between us.

 

On we go Hitch. Thanks for the e-fellatio comment but I really did kind of chuckle when I read it. I am so damned bored right now and believe me I know how I can be when I'm bored.

 

As for the other two guys suggesting that we end the discussion - good for them. There isn't much to talk about these days I guess I would say and anyone who chooses can simply feel free to skip right over my posts.

[moonslav59]

I don't think I am. You lost nothing from a 93 win team for 2018 yet got wiped out by the WS champion in 4 games in the ALDS. You're not good enough as is to beat Houston or Cleveland without major luck and currently are either neck and neck or behind NYY depending on health. You start to lose big pieces after 2018. You've got room from your current salary to the biggest penalty limit, enough to add one marquee player. Your biggest weakness was a power outage and a lack of cohesion on offense. You were missing one big bat from 2016 when your offense was best in baseball. If you don't get another big bat then you are hoping for a return to prominence from your offense without an upgrade. Will it happen? Maybe, but probably not. If DD doesn't upgrade his biggest weakness, though, the offenses you'll be facing from NY, CLE, and HOU will be markedly better, putting you at a disadvantage. DD has to get JD. He just has to. The window has been open for 2 seasons. It remains open for one more. After that, pieces start to move away or get far more expensive limiting your flexibility and depth. The sox have to go for it this year and Boras knows it. Hence why he is dragging this out to get more from DD

 

1) I disagree that we were or are not good enough to beat CLE or HOU. Just because we are oh for the last two playoffs does not prove we need luck to beat them next time.

 

2) It looks like CLE is losing pieces this year, but you speak of us losing pieces next year.

 

3) HOU lokks very good on paper, but some of their young stars could have set backs- much like ours did from 2016 to 2017. They also have a rotation with a history of injuries and a year older Verlander.

 

4) Yes, we lose some key pieces over the next few years, but we also lose some dead weight (HRam, Pablo & Castillo) and a so-so player making big money (Porcello).

 

After 2018:

$22M HRam (assuming he does not get 497 PAs)

$13M Kimbrel (very hard to replace in kind, but maybe Smith or Thorburg can)

~$9M Pomeranz (last arb)

~$4M Joe Kelly (last arb)

$48M Total

Arb raises for Betts, Bogey and JBJ could be very significant, but we may only really need to replace Pomeranz. ERod could step it up.) We should have enough money to pay the arb raises and sign one big FA (SP'er).

 

After 2019:

$20.6M Porcello (no big loss)

$19M Pablo (a huge gain for us)

$13.5M C Sale (Must be kept or replaced in kind to stay highly competitive)

~$10+M Bogaerts (last arb)

$6.5M Moreland (easy to replace)

~$3M Thornburg (last arb)

~$2M B Holt (last arb)

Total: about $57M

 

Further arb raises for Betts and JBJ, but we should have enough money to keep Sale (Porcello $20.5M + Sale $13.5M), but we may need to try and find a SS within our system or some other cheap way. Certainly, losing Bogey, Moreland, Thornburg & Holt will pay for arb raises to Betts & JBJ and lesser players with enough left over for something significant. One can also expect our young players to improve as they reach prime years. Here's a look at our 2020 roster with my projections in place (assuming we sign JD Martinez):

 

Assuming we lose Kimbrel, Bogey, Porcello, HRam, Thornburg, Moreland, Kelly & Holt

 

1. Beni LF

2. Pedey 2B

3. Betts RF

4. JD M DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Bradley CF

7. FA 1B (Travis/Ockimey?)

8. Vazquez C (Leon)

9. Chatham SS (Hernandez/Lin/Marrero)

 

SP1: Sale

SP2: Price (perhaps post surgery)

SP3: Pomeranz

SP4: ERod

SP5: Wright/Groome/Houck/Mata

 

RP1: Smith

RP2: FA

RP3: Barnes

RP4: Workman

RP5: Maddox

RP6: Beeks

RP7: Johnson/Shawaryn/Thompson/Houck/Mata

 

This looks pretty competitive to me, and I think this is a pretty conservative view on what we do to replace departing players. We may be able to keep Kimbrel and/or Bogey and not be over the second tier luxury tax penalty. I'm pretty sure losing Pablo will help us keep Bogey, if we want him, or replace him with someone just as good or better.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but it's also possible Boras doesn't lower the price until bidders start dropping out. So the Sox might be in the unenviable position of holding the price high...

 

Nobody is close to offering $210M/7, and I doubt anyone is even close to offering more than $160M/6 or $135M/5, which is a more realistic number that should have been put up for debate.

 

I get the argument about the possibility of repeating the same mistakes we made with HRam & Pablo, but I think JD is at a higher level than either of those two were when we signed them. Sure, a high risk is present. Those who are opposed to signing him have a good argument. Hell, if it ends up taking $170M/6 to get him, then that's about as much as Pablo & HRam combined.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not so sure about that. Losing Hanley, Pom and Kimbrel will grant you $44 mil to play with.

 

The tax threshold also goes up $9 million.

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure about that. Losing Hanley, Pom and Kimbrel will grant you $44 mil to play with. You're likely losing half of that in arb raises. You're looking at the situation of either/or. You can either get a top of the line closer or a #2-3 starter on the open market, and right now there is nobody better than Kimbrel. That's why I am saying that the sox start losing pieces after this season.

 

Let's say sign JD and we keep Pom but lose Kimbrel.

 

How does adding JD and losing Kimbrel suddenly make us noncompetitive?

 

I think we'll be better in 2019 than we were in 2017.

[cp176]

Nobody is close to offering $210M/7, and I doubt anyone is even close to offering more than $160M/6 or $135M/5, which is a more realistic number that should have been put up for debate.

 

I get the argument about the possibility of repeating the same mistakes we made with HRam & Pablo, but I think JD is at a higher level than either of those two were when we signed them. Sure, a high risk is present. Those who are opposed to signing him have a good argument. Hell, if it ends up taking $170M/6 to get him, then that's about as much as Pablo & HRam combined.

 

It might not be the most important thing to think about but from everything that I have read Martinez is very good teammate. Couple that with the fact that he is an incredibly hard worker and I guess that is worth something. I would love to see him in boston but I still think that 5 years is long enough.

[Hitch]

Nobody is close to offering $210M/7, and I doubt anyone is even close to offering more than $160M/6 or $135M/5, which is a more realistic number that should have been put up for debate.

 

I get the argument about the possibility of repeating the same mistakes we made with HRam & Pablo, but I think JD is at a higher level than either of those two were when we signed them. Sure, a high risk is present. Those who are opposed to signing him have a good argument. Hell, if it ends up taking $170M/6 to get him, then that's about as much as Pablo & HRam combined.

 

I think there is virtually nobody that doesn't want him signed. The only concern is the price. Where is your cut off point, personally for this? When do we walk away? Because you seem to be of a similar opinion to - standing still is simply not acceptable this off season.

 

Personally, if we can't make a big bat happen (and I hope we do), I would like to see us get one of the big pitchers signed up and leave Pom and Porcello walk over the next couple of years.

[moonslav59]

The tax threshold also goes up $9 million.

 

Plus, DD may have the okay to go just under the second threshold.

[moonslav59]

I think there is virtually nobody that doesn't want him signed. The only concern is the price. Where is your cut off point, personally for this? When do we walk away? Because you seem to be of a similar opinion to - standing still is simply not acceptable this off season.

 

Personally, if we can't make a big bat happen (and I hope we do), I would like to see us get one of the big pitchers signed up and leave Pom and Porcello walk over the next couple of years.

 

We are in complete agreement.

 

I'm not sure what my final offer would be for JD. I'm thinking my top offer might be $10-20M over the next top offer, so I'm not for putting it out there right now.

 

I'd go as high as this or walk away and go after a top SP'er:

 

$130M/5 ($26M x 5) with a team option 6th year at $20M with a buyout of $5M, essentially making it this....

 

$135M/5 or $27M x 5 (The luxury tax cost would be $135M/6 or $22.5M- a very reasonable number for us to handle)

or

$150M/6 at our choice.

 

(Maybe, I add another $5M to the total package, if the top SP'er asking prices are way out of whack. There is a valid argument to be made about signing JD, Darvish or Arrieta, if all 3 are way above what we think is an acceptable overpay- then what?)

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[Hitch]

I'd take that deal right now. Slightly higher than I'd like, but completely acceptable. I reckon even, Kimmi takes that, begrudgingly.

[moonslav59]

I'd take that deal right now. Slightly higher than I'd like, but completely acceptable. I reckon even, Kimmi takes that, begrudgingly.

 

A problem arises, if we walk away from JD after he refuses the top offer, only to find out that the demands by Darvish and Arrieta are even more overboard,

then the "status quo" position comes more into play. Again, I'd at least sign a Cobb or Lynn rather than standing pat.

[a700hitter]

I've explained it on the previous page, which you ignored. Unsurprisingly.

 

 

 

Nope. No idea. Pleas explain how my comments are like so much we see in the print these days. I'm genuinely fascinated to hear the explanation.

And I pointed out why your explanation was incorrect too.

[a700hitter]

E-fellatio? C'mon man, that's totally uncalled for here.

Is that a porn website? We could have trademark infringement by Hitch. Edited January 7, 2018 by a700hitter

[oldtimer]

We are in complete agreement.

 

I'm not sure what my final offer would be for JD. I'm thinking my top offer might be $10-20M over the next top offer, so I'm not for putting it out there right now.

 

I'd go as high as this or walk away and go after a top SP'er:

 

$130M/5 ($26M x 5) with a team option 6th year at $20M with a buyout of $5M, essentially making it this....

 

$135M/5 or $27M x 5 (The luxury tax cost would be $135M/6 or $22.5M- a very reasonable number for us to handle)

or

$150M/6 at our choice.

 

(Maybe, I add another $5M to the total package, if the top SP'er asking prices are way out of whack. There is a valid argument to be made about signing JD, Darvish or Arrieta, if all 3 are way above what we think is an acceptable overpay- then what?)

 

 

I believe 5 years at $2Mil/Yr will get the job done. I believe the 2nd question also remains open. Do we use him as a DH or plan for him to take LF for a significan portion of the season, while trading jbj? That is a legitimate question ane may impact JD's decision process and also would have an impact on the final luxury tax salary limit and who else we can afford.

[Hitch]

A problem arises, if we walk away from JD after he refuses the top offer, only to find out that the demands by Darvish and Arrieta are even more overboard,

then the "status quo" position comes more into play. Again, I'd at least sign a Cobb or Lynn rather than standing pat.

 

It's a fair point. And I'd like to see us add, rather than do nothing, but offering out no deal is better than offering out a terrible one just so we don't stand still.

[a700hitter]

'premise of your post was in correct'; 'not a binary choice''.

 

Such convoluted, meaningless language to escape answering what was a straight forward question. Because giving the answer that you don't believe 7 years at $210m is acceptable flies directly in the face of your comment that preceded it - "Not getting a big bat is not acceptable. Status quo in a window period is irrational."

 

 

Binary or not is irrelevant (as you well know), you was offered an option that showed quite clearly, that in this example, getting that big bat at this cost was unacceptable and not rational. It was clearly not a either/or, which again, you of course knew.

 

Watching you tie yourself up in language to avoid having to pull back on a previous point is always fun, however.

Oh, I see a second stab at explaining your incorrect post. Me saying that it is irrational not to add a big bat in a window period does not equate to adding a big bat at a ridiculously high cost. That is a false choice. JD may be the only big bat left on free agency, but there are other possibilities. DD could revisit getting Machado (maybe only for one year). He could also see if he could swing a deal for someone else.

Because giving the answer that you don't believe 7 years at $210m is acceptable flies directly in the face of your comment that preceded it - "Not getting a big bat is not acceptable. Status quo in a window period is irrational."

 

^This is faulty logic.

 

Your original post had 2 premises, both which were incorrect. We have discussed only one — whether anyone proposed or supported a 7/$210 million deal. No one has and your attempts to explain your statement have not established anything. The other incorrect premise is that the same nonexistent people who supported 7/$210 also complained about existing large contracts. That is also not true. No one has complained about the size of those contracts, but rather the poor judgment regarding the talent that they signed to those contracts. Several of those guys have been completely worthless. Bother premises in your accusatory post were erroneous rendering your post worthless except to be argumentative. And I am not pulling back on any point. Status quo in a window period is irrational. Moon has said that he agrees and he also doesn’t like $7/210 million.

[Spudboy]

Over and over and over again, people complain about the stupid contracts weighing us down now. And then in the same breath advocate signing Martinez, even if it's a crazy 7 year contract. Because it has to be done, no matter the cost.

 

Some logic at work right there.

 

Nonsense. As for me everyone knows how I feel about big buck, long term deals.

 

My point is valid and has nothing to do whit signing anyone else to a long term deal. It is about not having more flexibility in constructing the roster.

 

Has anyone here advocated a 7 year deal for JD????

[Hitch]

a700, when Kimmi asked would you accept a deal that was 7 years at $210 (in reference to our statement) you reiterated that it was unacceptable not getting the bat and standing still. You know damn well that reply indicates that you believe it is acceptable. Dress it up any way you like. Call it false choice and blah blah all you like. You're trying to scurry out of it, rather than just say, you know what actually there are situations where it is acceptable to stand still rather than give outrageously stupid contracts out.

 

Constantly living in a situation where you simply cannot allow yourself to backtrack on a stupid statement or allow yourself to be wrong, must be incredibly tiring.

 

Spudboy, I've not addressed you, so I have no idea why you're bringing up the validity of your points. Maybe strike that conversation up with somebody who quotes you.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I hope the people who were defending Scott Boras can now see the kind of trouble the man causes.

[Kimmi]

If it looks like Martinez is prepared to drag things out for a few more weeks, I think the question becomes whether you continue to wait on him or give him some sort of take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum, then move on to someone like Jay Bruce (who won't give you the same elite production but could still provide an infusion of power at a fraction of the cost) and sign Alex Cobb with the difference saved.

 

Obviously JDM is the best option, but there is a limit to how long we should allow him to hold our offseason plans hostage. We still have plenty of options available, but at some point those are going to start to drop off the board.

 

Dombrowski said something a couple of days ago about the off season having no deadlines, giving the impression that he was willing to wait on JD a bit longer. That does put the Sox in a difficult situation though. I agree with you and Oldtimer, give JD a take or or leave it offer, then be prepared to move on.

[Kimmi]

Last year you thought Sale was a "luxury" and not needed.

 

Now, we have Sale, but Price is sketchy. Since Sale is better than Price, what's changed to make you think SP'ing is a high need?

 

ERod's injury?

 

Surely, Pom's rise to dependability outweighs ERod's projected missed time.

 

Plus, our pen should be stronger with full seasons from Smith, Workman, Maddox and others as well as some possible innings from Thornburg.

 

ERod's injury is part of it. Another part of it is that I'm expecting regression from Pomeranz. And another part of it is the way Porcello performed last year. I didn't expect him to repeat his 2016, but I thought he would be much better than he was last year. I'm not sure what to expect from him going forward.

[Kimmi]

The $210M/7 number BorA$$ threw out there is not happening. I don't think that's a fair "either or" to ask us about.

 

Something like $140M/5 or $160M/6 vs status quo might be more like it.

 

Plus, if we don't sign JD, it doesn't mean we do noting else. I hope Bruce is not plan B, but adding a solid SP'er would also not be "status quo" either.

 

I'm confident DD does something significant, so there will be no status quo. How much of an overpay will it be, because it almost surely will be, remains to be seen.

 

 

Sure, it's a fair either-or to ask. My point is that at some point, a contract becomes bad enough that the team would be better off standing pat than taking on the contract.

 

I get that if we don't sign JD, there are other moves we can make over standing pat. The question applies to the other options as well.

[Kimmi]

it is not an either or situation. That is why I didn’t answer it. It is a false choice. We need a bat, and DD will have to do what it takes to get one. If he doesn’t want to pay 7/$210 million, then go another route. If they think 7/$210 million is a good deal, we don’t know their finances. I trust that they will not be fools with their money.

 

But again, status quo in a window period with a cliff outside of that window is an irrational strategy.

 

You are trying to divert the question and the issue at hand. Hitch is absolutely right in his arguments.

 

You need to just admit that 'Kimmi is right'.

[Spudboy]

a700, when Kimmi asked would you accept a deal that was 7 years at $210 (in reference to our statement) you reiterated that it was unacceptable not getting the bat and standing still. You know damn well that reply indicates that you believe it is acceptable. Dress it up any way you like. Call it false choice and blah blah all you like. You're trying to scurry out of it, rather than just say, you know what actually there are situations where it is acceptable to stand still rather than give outrageously stupid contracts out.

 

Constantly living in a situation where you simply cannot allow yourself to backtrack on a stupid statement or allow yourself to be wrong, must be incredibly tiring.

 

Spudboy, I've not addressed you, so I have no idea why you're bringing up the validity of your points. Maybe strike that conversation up with somebody who quotes you.

 

Odd that you made your two assumptions and comment immediately after I posted.

 

Must have been a coincidence.

[Kimmi]

I don't think I am. You lost nothing from a 93 win team for 2018 yet got wiped out by the WS champion in 4 games in the ALDS. You're not good enough as is to beat Houston or Cleveland without major luck and currently are either neck and neck or behind NYY depending on health. You start to lose big pieces after 2018. You've got room from your current salary to the biggest penalty limit, enough to add one marquee player. Your biggest weakness was a power outage and a lack of cohesion on offense. You were missing one big bat from 2016 when your offense was best in baseball. If you don't get another big bat then you are hoping for a return to prominence from your offense without an upgrade. Will it happen? Maybe, but probably not. If DD doesn't upgrade his biggest weakness, though, the offenses you'll be facing from NY, CLE, and HOU will be markedly better, putting you at a disadvantage. DD has to get JD. He just has to. The window has been open for 2 seasons. It remains open for one more. After that, pieces start to move away or get far more expensive limiting your flexibility and depth. The sox have to go for it this year and Boras knows it. Hence why he is dragging this out to get more from DD

 

The Sox will be fine whether they make any further moves or not. They do not have to 'go for it'. Taking on another bad contract to 'go for it' would be just piling on to the long term damage that has already been done to this team.

 

As I said before, the Yankees don't scare me.

[Kimmi]

Nobody is close to offering $210M/7, and I doubt anyone is even close to offering more than $160M/6 or $135M/5, which is a more realistic number that should have been put up for debate.

 

I get the argument about the possibility of repeating the same mistakes we made with HRam & Pablo, but I think JD is at a higher level than either of those two were when we signed them. Sure, a high risk is present. Those who are opposed to signing him have a good argument. Hell, if it ends up taking $170M/6 to get him, then that's about as much as Pablo & HRam combined.

 

I am not opposed to signing him. I am opposed to signing him for more than 5 years.